[QUOTE=One And Only Wanderers]
hey dracula, bite so and so or we will lynch you. Not much of a threat if biting so and so would kill him any way, especially as his team dies with him (not the team mebers, just the team). As Dracula would have no reason to play ball, I would say kill him if we know who he is, even if we also know a wolf. We can always do the wolf the next day. If of course its the last wolf, then lets do the wolf, cos that removes the NK.
[/QUOTE]
Working backward on my responses today, starting with this.
I (conditionally) disagree with the above.
First of all, the question, “who to lynch, a certain Dracula or a certain Wolf?”, is sort of a pointless one: the real answer at this point in the game is it depends. Where do we stand in the game? How many mislynches have we used? Do we have sufficient information to develop a usable guess as to the number of scum? Is it toDay, where Dracula has not bitten anyone at all, as CiAS suggests in his original question? Is it Day Six, when Dracula could be on the verge of winning? A blanket policy in this case is worthless; it will always depend on circumstances.
But more broadly, we (probably - there’s no guarantee that Dracula exists) have two types of enemies here. One type of enemy - the Wolves - can only die by being lynched (that we know of). As far as we know, we have no Vigs, Serial Killers, Bombs, or Crazy Townies to take out Wolves without lynching them. We’re going to get a certain number of chances to lynch in this game, and three times we must lynch scum or we lose.
Our second enemy - Dracula - can die in a number of ways. The Wolves could kill him. Once he’s revealed, they definitely won’t, though. But Drac could also die of food poisoning, and since in order to win he will eventually have to bite, that’s a significant chance (I 'd guess it starts at somewhere between 20%-35%, roughly, and goes up from there).
Since there are non-lynch ways to kill Dracula, but no non-lynch ways to kill Wolves, I’d say that all other things being equal it makes much more sense to save our lynches for the Wolves (unless we are very near the endgame, and suspect that Dracula may be near to a win himself).