Why do you think storyteller is telling the truth?
Correction the question is:
Why do you think storyteller’s claim is more likely to be true than not?
-
Because in my experience, which is admittedly less extensive than that of most of the players in this game, true role-claims outnumber false ones by a fairly large margin.
-
Because storyteller has been posting a lot and has been pretty vocal about whom he trusts and distrusts, and has been especially mistrustful of the one person I know is a townie (i.e., me). Again, pretty typical first-day townie behavior; the scum tend to sit back and wait for the townies to tear each other apart.
It seems to me that the whole issue with storyteller basically boils down to he is either scum false claiming or the real deal. The thing is though, false claims seem to happen very rarely at best. There was the mason false claim with Idle and zuma, and Mad from last game, and not much else. (I’m not really counting Ryjae from last game, since that wasn’t really a false claim so much as it was the only thing he could say other than giving up.) Therefore, it seems more likely than not that story is telling the truth. This leads me to take a closer look at anyone that gives such a claim a hard time. In this case, that person is OAOW. Others have expressed suspicion, like Blam, but are willing to accept the claim provisionally. This seems like the prudent choice. But OAOW has been on the offensive for quite a while regarding the claim. Yes, he unvoted story, but even in the post he did you can see him laying the groundwork for more attacks/suspicion on story tomorrow, assuming story survives the Night. I can only see two good reasons for this sort of attitude. Either story is lying and OAOW is the real constable, in which case the skepticism is understandable. I don’t think I agree with the tack he is taking if this is the case though, so I’m not sure I buy it. Or OAOW is scum, and is trying his hardest to get the constable lynched or at least disbelieved.
I know that there is a third possibilty, where OAOW is vanilla town or some non-constable power role, and simply feels that story is lying. I just don’t think this option is that likely considering the way the events went when taken as a whole. Therefore I feel comfortable at this time with voting for him.
Vote OAOW
Good answer.
In fact your #2 point is similar to my thinking regarding WF Tomba, so I can’t fault your logic.
I disagree with Point #1 though. While historically scum haven’t false claimed as much as they probably should, I think scum are catching on to the idea that false claiming is better than nothing. I don’t fault you for thinking the way you do, I just disagree with the thesis.
So you think that when scum are taking pressure and claim, they say OK guvnor it’s a fair cop? Most mafia games I play in involve a scum fake claim at some point in the game. The last (finished) game I was involved in on mafiascum I basically won for scum by false claiming cop. Seriously, false claims happen all the time.
I would agree that false claims out of the blue are rare, but false claims from scum in danger of being lynched should be expected. What else is the scum going to do? What would be the optimal scum play if not false claiming?
Yes, let’s.
I’d like to know why you interpreted this post as having anything to do with your unvote of storyteller. Your whole argument seems to depend on reading a rejection of that unvote into a post that doesn’t mention it.
He may have been twisting your words, or misinterpreting them, but he said nothing about your unvote.
So because he fails to address your actual reasons, you think you can pin him down to a rejection of those reasons? Your mind-reading ability is amazing. Tell me, swami, what is his opinion of the Hanseatic League? He didn’t address that either, so you must know what he thinks about it!
I don’t like your terminology because it’s incomprehensible. It’s a big glistening glob of pop-psych phlegm that you rub onto your arguments to make them look less decrepit. Please point out what OAOW’s motivation was and where exactly he imputed that motivation to you. Until I can identify an actual example of “motivational transference” I’ll reserve judgment on whether it is a scum tactic.
How often do false claims happen this early in the game, though? (I’m not attacking you on this; this is a question that comes from genuine ignorance, since I’ve been too busy to follow the games that have taken place since the last time I played.) It seems to me that false claiming is a bit like being the boy who cried wolf (or the boy who cried town, in this case?) – you can only get away with it once or maybe twice per game, so it makes sense to wait until the Wolves would be really screwed if one of them were lynched.
That said, I guess this game may be an exception, since it’s possible that we’re dealing with a small number of Wolves who all have key power roles, in which case they are screwed if we lynch correctly even once. So I’m not saying that I absolutely trust storyteller’s claim, but for the moment I’m thinking it’s more likely to be true than not.
Maybe on other sites they do, I can’t really say. But here on the dope and the related off site board? No, they don’t. And yes, I have seen scum basically do the fair cop bit. zuma’s done it, Santo Rugger’s done it, and I’m pretty sure some others have as well that I’m not taking the time to look up now. As for what the scum do often do? In my experience reading and playing, one of three things generally. Either they act just like a townie would, and try and defend themslves while picking someone else to try and transfer votes to. Or, if the case is rock solid, they do nothing really. Just kinda disappear. drain bead’s done this one a few times, most recently in Batman. The third option is they lie. I don’t mean false claim lie, I mean lie more in the sense of make shit up. For an example of this, look at CIAS in Conspiracy. He lied about his ability and role. I wouldn’t call it a false claim in the sense that we’re discussing here. He just tried to give a good reason for people to leave him alone for that day. Ryjae tried something similar in Batman. But real false claims under pressure? I can’t think of very many. Mad last game, zuma/idle offboard. Certainly no where near all the time as you’re saying.
Earliness in the game isn’t a good metric. false claims happen when a scum faces lynching. If Town fails to endanger a scum, then a false claim isn’t going to happen. So if we happen to put a scum in danger of lynching early in the game then a false claim should be expected. If we only string up Town, then a false claim won’t happen because a townie isn’t going to lie.
Actually, my opinion is that scum facing a lynch has little reason not to false claim. This idea of ‘crying wolf’ puts a burden on Town just as much on Wolves. Let’s say we lynch storyteller and he turns up scum. Then tomorrow we decide to lynch Mr. X, and now Mr. X claims constable. Do we disbelieve Mr. X because of storyteller? Mr. X could be lying scum, or he could be a real constable. Finding out scum lied about a role claim should not affect the believability of future claims. Each claim should be evaluated independently*. The appearance of a false claim shouldn’t affect how we treat the rest of the game. We should just think, lying scum, and move on.
I’ll also note, that NAF (real cop) in SimpleTown expressed concern about the scum’s false cop claim. He felt the false claim would make his eventual claim more difficult for the Town to swallow. I don’t agree with his point of view, but he did think that. I’ll also point out that NAF’s claim was not called into question by the town. However, he benefitted greatly by claiming without a noose around his neck. I don’t know how the town would have reacted if they decided they wanted to lynch NAF before he claimed.
*well except for the dependencies arriving from active counter-claims, of course.
I think your examples are off the mark. Just because someone has done an action in the past doesn’t mean that action is optimal. I think scum are realizing that rolling over isn’t a good tactic. False claiming might not work, but it doesn’t hurt to try! Why would (implicitly) claiming vanilla be better? Has that ever worked out for scum? (I can’t recall any case where sitting back and playing vanilla townie has worked for scum. If there is an example, I’m all ears).
CIAS’s claim in Conspiracy was after he was outed by an investigation. The circumstances precluded CIAS from claiming Detective. There is a big difference between claims that are born from:
- nothing - out of nowhere claims are most believable
- about to be lynched
- fingered by investigation
How scum will react in cases 2 and 3 are quite different from each other.
Does Blam in Batman count? True, he wasn’t “vanilla”, but then again, no one was vanilla in that game. He did however basically just play townie, and survived for several Days after he was under pressure. None of the people that left him alive did so because of his claim, they did it because he basically talked them out of it.
Then I misremembered and I apologize. I did not remember it coming from an investigation. But that doesn’t change my main point, which is that false claims are very far from a common occurance in the games on and associated with the Dope, whether under pressure or not. And it’s not just a case of not many scum being under pressure early, since there have been plenty of games where scum was lynched in the first few Days and didn’t claim.
If I recall correctly, Blam had a false claim. zuma claimed Joe Cool or something, Blam stated his power prevents scum from winning. That doesn’t sound vanilla to me.
My point is, just because scum might have not claimed in the past is no reason to think that trend will continue! The evidence suggests that false claiming is superior to sitting back and getting lynched. Those scum who allowed themselves to be lynched early probably should have false claimed! What did not false claiming buy them? You say yourself that town has lynched scum early a few times. Don’t you think that those scum lynchees would have benefitted from a false claim? Do you think scum avoid false claiming for some reason? If there is a reason, I’d love to hear it.
Ooo, Roleclaims. I’m getting to be an expert on that having done it twice successfully while scum. Once when outed by a detective role and so managing to buy myself some time and another when outed as a killer.
It used to be simple, the scum would claim as vanilla and were likely to get lynched regardless. Nowadays, it is becoming more and more common as the people playing scum realise that a good roleclaim can not only buy you time, but also result in mislynches, misdirection and so on. The claims are getting better and better and more importantly, it does work.
They tend not to happen early in the games, because there is little information to construct a good roleclaim from. This game is ideal for roleclaiming, as we know a lot of information but not how it fits into the game.
I’m not going to give a class on claiming (Captain Klutz off board is better at setting them up than I am) but I will be looking at each of them.
**Storyteller’s ** claim is excellent, I’ll give him that. Given the setup of the game, he is very likely to get at least another Night. However, my take on it is that it is likely a false claim, YMMV, but there is always that element of doubt.
So my criteria for **storyteller’s ** ongoing survival is for him to find a new scum every Day. If he manages that, then he is providing benefit to the town and a steady supply of lynches. If he cannot find a scum for any reason, then he should be lynched before the end of the Day.
Comments?
**zuma ** - did fair cop when a scum gambit between him and Idle Thoughts was rumbled.
**Santo Rugger ** - A victim of cross posting on the wrong board.
**storyteller ** is good enough to pick up on my constant harping about crappy roleclaims from the other boards and ensure his, if required, is good. Alternatively, he could be telling the truth.
The only way to find out is when he bites the dust.
My thoughts:
If there are only 3 Wolves and they’re powered up, I HIGHLY doubt we as a Town have only a cop and a doc. This game is a veteran’s game, but it’s not been advertised as a BASTARD Game, or an UNFAIR one. Perhaps a difficult one yes, but not an unfair game.
So having 3 powerful scum roles means that there SHOULD be a foil for those roles.
Namely: The Scout.
If there exists a Scout Werewolf- i immediately would suspect that we’ve got more than one pro-town elements in our midst. Because, what’s the POINT of a Scum Cop if there’s NOTHING to find? JUST to find Dracula? That seems a bit odd. Having a Scum Cop is usually indicative that there’s SOMETHING for the scum to be looking out for. Thusly, there is a Townie or PFK role out there that’s a threat to the scum and they need to find it. So I don’t buy the 3 Powered up Scum vs. a Bunch of Townies sorta idea just from a logical standpoint.
Because the Scout isn’t needed- they could just kill every night and figure out who’s doing what. But by having a scout, that gives the scum 2 chances of discovering roles (1 by killing and 1 by scouting). ERGO, that hugely increases their information bucket, as they already KNOW who’s scum, so they can assume the rest are town but 1 or two Vampires or who knows what. So why have that scout? Unless there is a role out there that they have to find?
So put me down in the “We’re not just a cop and a doc” setup… I don’t really have any proof of it though, but I just wanna say the lone scout doesn’t feel right.
Thank you for that at least…I would hate to have to add you to the list for a silly vote you didn’t remove 
I haven’t had as much time to post as normally I keep up with the threads at work and try to post during lunch, but lately that hasn’t been an option (more work since my Boss got back from vacation). You guys are all posting like madmen, and I’m just keeping up right now. Post forthcoming about some notes on a readthrough of the past ~3 pages.
Fair enough. I’ll be a bit more lenient in giving the man 2 days or so to give ANY results, but I’m mostly looking to hope that if he’s NOT the cop that the real cop will at least take a harder look at him and figure out who’s on the up and up.
But of course, we’ve got one who’s claimed Constable- now at least we’re cutting down on the number of possible role claims by scum. That’s why on future days we can start to go back and look at the ACTIONS of the player- on Day 1 however, its best to err on the side of caution, as right now is when we as a town can afford the most leniency currently. As the Days wear on though, we’ll look harder and harder at Story.
Ok, I want to make a few comments on things that have grabbed my attention, as well as some of our ‘issues’ that have popped up.
On story’s claim : At first glance, I really don’t trust it. I’ve seen him do some damn fine things during a game, but it doesn’t preclude him from making a slip. It could just be a quick cover for a mistake; however I don’t really see any evidence (or anything I can truly putforth a good motivation argument about) to make a case this way. Suspicious, yes. Voteworthy, no.
OAOW : I like the case here. Initially, back in post #220, I was pinged a little when he? (Correct, yes?) removed a vote for Cat and then quoted Cat as a reason to vote Shadow. Then, in post #296, switches vote again very quickly with almost no case stated beyond calling it a slip. Everyone else that caught the 3 instead of 3 to 5 (as is claimed by story) pointed a finger and demanded explanation. OAOW voted immediately with little to no discussion. Agression combined with almost no justifications before people started voting for him makes him, in my mind, the best target today.
**Vote One And Only Wanderers **
One other thing I wanted to consider; back in post #332, Pollux Oil makes a note about WF Tomba’s post that seemed to say alot but said nothing. Sometimes posts like this don’t sit with me well…it always appears to me as a scum trying to hide the fact that there is nothing to say here.