Mafia: Cecilvania [Game Over]

[Hal_Briston]

@Nanook of the North Shore

When the underpinning of his argument got knocked out by Shadow’s death, he stated that he thought it sucked that he no longer had a case against me. This really strikes me as a case of trying to find a reason to lynch someone, rather than looking at the facts and statements and trying to figure out who to lynch, if that makes sense. I’m not sure I’m explaining what I’m trying to get at here very well. Let me know if it makes sense.

So…I should be happy when a case against someone comes apart at the seams? Hands down, yes, it sucked. It sucked because there had been a good indication that we had two scum in our sights. When one was proven town, it sucked because we got played, and it sucked because if ShadowFacts had been scum, it would have been good evidence that you were scum as well. Now that evidence is gone, and the whole thing is a null tell (although your spot on the block was nicely filled by storyteller.

Incidentally, careful how you phrase things. I understand what you were trying to say, but with the wording of “…he used a fairly weak argument to attack me and a known townie” containing a flat-out lie (unless you can quote where I attacked Shadow after he was confirmed town), others might be a bit more prone to jump on that sort of thing.

[Nanook_of_the_North_Shore]

@Hal Briston

Incidentally, careful how you phrase things. I understand what you were trying to say, but with the wording of “…he used a fairly weak argument to attack me and a known townie” containing a flat-out lie (unless you can quote where I attacked Shadow after he was confirmed town), others might be a bit more prone to jump on that sort of thing.

Bleh, I apologize for the wording. I forgot to include a “now” or similar in there, which I meant to do.

[Pollux_Oil]

I’m aware I’m pulling a Blam here, but here’s my thoughts on what’s went on toDay. I’m breaking it up into a few posts so I don’t get modkilled. Heh.

@MHaye

I don’t agree with BlaM that there are only three wolves left. For the Wolves to sacrifice Storyteller, they must believe that our lynching Shadowfacts put them on the verge of victory even after we lynch Storyteller. It’s far more likely that we’re at LyLo now.

Regardless of what number the wolves have, we should play like we’re at LyLo. Storyteller’s “slip” might have actually been one, but we don’t want to lull ourselves into a false sense of security. One mistake could give the game to the scum, whether it be the wolves or Dracula.

[Pollux_Oil]

@Blaster Master

I’d like to think that we could, but I respect storyteller enough to consider it a possibility that that is the general thought when a fake detective claims, is he will give truthful readings. However, he also may have figured we wouldn’t bother to test either of his town readings, and thus it’s entirely possible he could have slipped a fellow scum in there to try and get him accepted under the radar.

One thing you forgot to consider: Under the assumption that this is an all-vanilla game like it seems to be, the scum would have known it was all vanilla before we did. Or at least, they would have known that they only had vanilla scum at their disposal. So then they could have had storyteller identify scum as town under the assumption that there was no detective to discredit storyteller’s “investigations”.

@Fretful Porpentine

So, a thought that may or may not be worth something: If I were scum, and I knew storyteller was also scum, I’d be doing something to distance myself from him on Day 1, such as placing an early vote on him.

People who voted for storyteller on Day One, prior to his role claim:

One and Only Wanderers (town)
Nanook of the North Shore
Blaster Master

I think it may be worth taking a close look at Nanook and BlaM (especially Nanook, since he seemed to be pretty skeptical of story’s role claim throughout the game).

This is actually a thought I had myself. If storyteller’s slip was actually a slip, the scum would have known that storyteller messed up. Therefore, they’re probably likely to immediately jump on it to try and look more townie. I’m specifically thinking of an instance in an older game (I think it was Firefly) where Cookies made some sort of minor slip and Rugger was the one to immediately jump on it and hound her about it.

[Pollux_Oil]

@Koldanar

**MHaye : ** I hate having subs I think; I need to look at darth’s actions as well as yours…and may even need to look at your actions as both townies from you. As is, I was never comfortable with Darth all game (and I even made it explicit with a vote at one point). I need to look back at all the actions and see. As it is now, darth made what he, in his own words, called a lazy move. Could just be covering a scum move with bad logic…but thats such a flimsy excuse right now I think I’m more inclined to actually believe at least that one.

Heh, tell me about it. I was suspicious of Darth. Freudian turning up town dealt a minor blow to my suspicions. Since Darth was subbed out for Mhaye, I haven’t really found anything Mhaye’s said particuarly suspicious, so I’m starting to think it might have been Darth’s playing style that threw me off. I’ve not completely given up the idea, but a reread is definitely in order.

@Santo Rugger

And not to metagame or anything, but might I remind you that the reason I gave Pleo in the Three Kingdom game that he shouldn’t vote for me during three handed is because I tend to be kind of a dick when town, and much nicer when I’m scum. I have no idea why, probably out of frustration because I’ve never been a very good analyzer of who’s scum since I didn’t take the time to develop those skills in my first five or so games (because I already knew who they were).

But now that you’ve mentioned it, you could just be a dick all the time so people can’t tell the difference. :dubious:

@Koldanar

The more I think about it the more it gets to me…unless Blam has some sort of RL reason for being away, normally he’s in the game, being analytical, and pushing people around. Why wouldn’t a townie Blam be in here still picking others apart now that we have been given a scum? I know he likes to change it up from game to game, but he has struck me as laying low so far today.

Blam’s also been away for nearly all of the Day on the other board as well. He has four votes on him right now over there and he hasn’t responded at all, so I’m thinking it might be a case of life > mafia, not an intentional lurk.

[Pollux_Oil]

And here’s the vote counts with all the known information. I haven’t added storyteller yet, didn’t want to take any liberties.

Day One
9 - OAOW: Fretful Porpentine, Blaster Master, storyteller, Freudian Slit, RoOsh, Nanook, Koldanar, Hal Briston, Darth Sensitive
5- Freudian Slit: Pollux Oil, Hockey Monkey, CatInASuit, OAOW, sachertorte
1- sachertorte: DiggitCamara
1- Hal Briston: ShadowFacts
1- Diggit: WF Tomba

Day Two
5- sachertorte: Blaster Master, DiggitCamara, Freudian Slit, storyteller, Rugger
3- Darth Sensitive: Pollux Oil, WF Tomba, Koldanar
2- ShadowFacts: Hal Briston, Fretful Porpentine
1- WF Tomba: Darth Sensitive
1- Hal Briston: Nanook
1- Blaster Master: sachertorte
1- DiggitCamara: ShadowFacts
1- Freudian Slit: Hockey Monkey

Day Three
5 - Freudian Slit: Santo Rugger, Koldanar, ShadowFacts, WF Mhaye, Pollux Oil
4 - WF Tomba/Mhaye: Blaster Master, Darth Sensitive, Nanook, Freudian Slit
2 - ShadowFacts: storyteller, Hal Briston
1 - Pollux Oil: Fretful Porpentine
1 - Hal Briston: DiggitCamara

Day Four
10- ShadowFacts: storyteller, Santo Rugger, Diggit, Fretful, Hal Briston, Nanook, MHaye, Blaster Master, Koldanar, Pollux Oil
1- storyteller: ShadowFacts

[Santo_Rugger]

Pollux, in response to scum jumping on story’s real or intentional slip, I tend to agree, and put those who did so at about 5 or 10% more likely to be scum than the general population. Not a huge tell, but something we should all look at tomorrow, amongst other things.

@Pollux Oil

But now that you’ve mentioned it, you could just be a dick all the time so people can’t tell the difference. :dubious:

Guess I have no choice, now. :smack:

Suckas!

[Blaster_Master]

@Koldanar

Anyway…back on track. Guys come on…just because today’s lynch is a foregone conclusion doesn’t mean we should take a break from finding scum. I have to wait until lunch to go back to my Day 2 re-read and analyze some more, but that doesn’t mean everyone sit back! Why is Hal lurking? Blam…was he playing poorly as sach pointed out, or a scum game? Someone pick up and run with something at least.

@Koldanar

The more I think about it the more it gets to me…unless Blam has some sort of RL reason for being away, normally he’s in the game, being analytical, and pushing people around. Why wouldn’t a townie Blam be in here still picking others apart now that we have been given a scum? I know he likes to change it up from game to game, but he has struck me as laying low so far today.

Smudge much? :dubious:

Actually, I was around plenty on Monday and Tuesday, and made several posts. You made these posts on Wednesday, when I’m normally not around (though I can’t really blame you for not knowing the Wednesdays are generally bad for me). Still, it looks like you want to drag out the fact that I didn’t post much Yesterday.

You’re on my short list of potential scum candidates, and I do intend to make note of my suspicions prior to the ending of the Day so that information is not lost to the ethers in the the event of my untimely demise.

[Blaster_Master]

@Pollux Oil

I’m aware I’m pulling a Blam here, but here’s my thoughts on what’s went on toDay. I’m breaking it up into a few posts so I don’t get modkilled. Heh.

FYI, consecutive posts count as one. So if you don’t want to get mod-killed, you’re gonna want to post some more.

Regardless of what number the wolves have, we should play like we’re at LyLo. Storyteller’s “slip” might have actually been one, but we don’t want to lull ourselves into a false sense of security. One mistake could give the game to the scum, whether it be the wolves or Dracula.

FTR, my intention is not to say “oh, there’s only three, we can rest easy”. I think, in general, the game should almost always be played with a LyLo situation in mind. That is, I think it is very seldom the case where it is to our advantage to lynch someone we believe is less likely to be scum than someone else in favor of additional information.

The reason for theorizing on the number of scum is to be able to have some basis for information. We can use this to go back and analyze voting blocs. A vote distribution for three scum may well look different than a distribution for four scum. Further, I think if we can conclude that scum started with even more of a numerical disadvantage but virtually perfect information, it will also effect their playstyle in a way that may be discernably different than if they had started with four scum. I intend to do some analysis from this perspective at some point before Dusk, assuming I can find the time.

[NAF1138]

@Pollux Oil

I’m breaking it up into a few posts so I don’t get modkilled. Heh.

BlaM already said it, but I just thought I would reiterate. We made the ruling a while back that double tripple etc. posts count as one.

You have now posted twice to the game.

[Hal_Briston]

@Blaster Master

Further, I think if we can conclude that scum started with even more of a numerical disadvantage but virtually perfect information, it will also effect their playstyle in a way that may be discernably different than if they had started with four scum.

(Bolding mine) I’m thinking this is pretty much a given. Unless we have a power role who is playing well below the radar (and if so, keep it up!), then it’s becoming more and more clear that this is a pure-vanilla game. For storyteller to try and pull of that gambit tells me that the scum knew going in that there was no detective role.

I say three scum to start. We’ll nail one Today, leaving pair to track down in a probably LyLo situation. If pressed, I’d say that Koldanar and Fretful have been pinging me the most since Shadow’s confirmation, but I’d doubt they’re both scum (Koldanar going after Fretful with only two left would be a very risky busing right now).

[Blaster_Master]

FYI, since it’s been brought up, here are the votes for storyteller from Nanook and me they’re posts 306 and 318 respectively:

@Nanook of the North Shore

I’m not sure what response you could make either to be honest. I was willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, but this isn’t good enough for me. It seems it was a true slip.

Vote storyteller0910

@Blaster Master

I knew I missed something in that last post. I meant to go over motivation. There is no motivation for Fretful Porpentine to talk about the scout at all, except because she’s trying to appear townie. As scum, she should know that any comments as to whether there is or is not one is purely a WIFOM scenario. Meanwhile, a townie motivation is to just say what she thinks. From a motivational analysis perspective, the Fretful Porpentine “I don’t think there’s a scout” comment is at worst a null tell, probably a slight townie tell.

Anyway, this is enough for me to find some suspicion in storyteller at least until I’ve caught up, so I’ll go ahead and put my vote there.

Vote storyteller

Since it has been mentioned that the votes for storyteller may have been scummy, I want to point out that my vote was made before I had even read the slip as I was in the process of my read and dump. My vote was based entirely on his bad attack on Fretful Porpentine. That said, for the reasons related to Nanook below, I think it’s unlikely that either vote is scum motivated.

Further, the initial “slip” was pointed out by OAOW. Nanook voted after he seemed to feel that storyteller didn’t adequately explain himself. Considering we know that OAOW is town, I don’t see jumping on it afterward as a particularly good move. That is, the only vote that I could potentially see as scummy is the first vote, which was OAOW, but he’s town. Instead, it looks to me like storyteller saw a strong townie wagon building and tried to nip it in the bud with his claim.

I think this sequence of events, generally looks good for Fretful Porpentine, Nanook, and myself. At this point, I’m disinclined to vote for either of them Tomorrow.

[Santo_Rugger]

@Blaster Master

<snip>I think this sequence of events, generally looks good for Fretful Porpentine, Nanook, and myself. At this point, I’m disinclined to vote for either of them Tomorrow.

:rolleyes:

“I think this sequence of events generally looks good for… myself.”

Well, duh.

[Koldanar]

@Blaster Master

Smudge much? :dubious:

Actually, I was around plenty on Monday and Tuesday, and made several posts. You made these posts on Wednesday, when I’m normally not around (though I can’t really blame you for not knowing the Wednesdays are generally bad for me). Still, it looks like you want to drag out the fact that I didn’t post much Yesterday.

You’re on my short list of potential scum candidates, and I do intend to make note of my suspicions prior to the ending of the Day so that information is not lost to the ethers in the the event of my untimely demise.

No, I wouldn’t know that about Wednesdays…and I haven’t been keeping up with the offboard, so I didnt’ know you had poofed there as well.

Whats particulary awful is there isnt’ much to go on from Yesterday or Today…yesterday was a foregone conclusion with Shadow, and today with Story. Any good analysis by me is going to be mostly prior to today. I think Today in general I’ve adopted a snarkier (more smudgy) attitude to at least get people in here, and playing.

As to you surviving the night…or any of us for that matter, we have to wonder a little. Santo and myself were both put forward as Town by story. Do the scum see this as at least one confirmed townie, which means, are one of us two the target tonight?

I do think it’s possible, but it really does depend on what the scum think. Eliminating one of either me or santo eliminates some confusion? Will we trust santo is town if I die and come up town? Vice versa? I want to get my thoughts out before the night starts today just in case this is a reality; why do you think you’d be a target?

[Santo_Rugger]

**Kold, **you know as well as I do that story could have said whatever the hell he wanted about either of us. There’s so much WiFoM there it’s dizzying. I hope you were making that point, albeit differently than I would have?

[USCDiver]

Day 5 Vote Count (as of post 1236)

8 - storyteller: Santo Rugger, Blaster Master, MHaye, Fretful Porpentine, Nanook, Koldanar, Hal Briston, Pollux Oil
1 - Blaster Master: storyteller

No Current Vote:

[Koldanar]

@Santo Rugger

**Kold, **you know as well as I do that story could have said whatever the hell he wanted about either of us. There’s so much WiFoM there it’s dizzying. I hope you were making that point, albeit differently than I would have?

Pretty much…if it comes out that damn confusing, then it must be? I already said that trusting his reads outright is bad play. Still, I will make a post anticipating my possible demise. Damn…the more stuff I get out there today the more confused I keep getting myself.

[Pollux_Oil]

@Blaster Master

FYI, consecutive posts count as one. So if you don’t want to get mod-killed, you’re gonna want to post some more.

Whoops. My bad. Yeah I just caught that. Mixed up my own rules with these rules. D’oh.

@Blaster Master

I think this sequence of events, generally looks good for Fretful Porpentine, Nanook, and myself. At this point, I’m disinclined to vote for either of them Tomorrow.

What Rugger said. Of course you’re going to say that it looks good to yourself. However, the fact that you did vote for him during a reread does make you look better than Nanook in that aspect at the very least.

[Koldanar]

Pollux…come back, don’t you need at least one more post?

[Santo_Rugger]

@Koldanar

Pretty much…if it comes out that damn confusing, then it must be? I already said that trusting his reads outright is bad play. Still, I will make a post anticipating my possible demise. Damn…the more stuff I get out there today the more confused I keep getting myself.

Trusting them outright is a bad idea. Distrusting them completely outright is a bad idea. Trusting one and not the other with no other evidence is a bad idea. I think we should all just pretend it never happened, because I don’t think it will help us in any way, and will just lead to more discussion where we keep going on an on, continually referring back to his “investigations”, and we’ll just be as rambling as the last sentence of this post is, with no real backing or anything to go on other than WiFoM, which we have no real way of figuring out from that information alone.