While I appreciate the cynicism, there’s no reason for me to not point out when I think something looks good for me particularly when it’s intrinsically linked with the point I’m making. Would you prefer I said “looks good for Fretful and Nanook” and not even mentioned myself, even though the exact same logic that looks good for Nanook looks good for me? If you disagree with my logic, then point out where; otherwise, these sorts of statements are not helpful at all.
So true. I start a post with great big intentions, thinking I have some great read/ idea, get sidetracked at work, come back, and go…what is this crap logic? all too often.
Back to analyzing people then.
I want to go back to this Shadow post, since It’s probably the last good analysis post in this game so far. There is a very good point in here…once shadow had gone after Blam…he got quiet, story went after him, and BAM false investigation of scum. Subtle hand off to a team mate?
Blaster spent alot of time on Day 2 saying how clearly what sach was doing was scummy. CLEARLY. Pretty strong accusation considering that we didn’t know what sach was, and as a matter of fact, a large portion of the town did not vote either, so CLEARLY wasn’t very clear to the rest of us then.
Gah…not sure i can finish this post till the next DAY…damn work.
Info dump. My thoughts on everybody:
Pollux Oil - Town. 
storyteller - Dead.
Koldanar - I’ve found myself agreeing with Koldanar a lot in terms of opinions, and he noted that he had the same feelings about me at some point. Unfortunately that’s an entirely null read. In terms of storyteller’s “investigations” I think it’s more likely that his second read on Koldanar is false than the one on Santo Rugger, but that’s WIFOM and not a solid case. Basically I got nothin’ on Koldanar, although my gut says townie. Voted OAOW Day 1, Darth Day 2, Freudian Day 3.
Blaster Master - Led lynches without any hesitation and bulldogged both OAOW and sachertorte to a degree. Inconsistent and spotty activity in the recent Days. My gut reaction is telling me to take a closer look at Blam during a reread toMorrow, mostly for his actions early in the first two Days. Voted OAOW Day 1, sachertorte Day 2, WF Mhaye Day 3.
Nanook - As far as I can tell, he’s been consistently active and kept his nose fairly clean throughout most of the Days. The biggest drama instance surrounding him were Hal’s theory that Shadow and Nanook were tagteaming him, and there’s been the recent idea of looking at who immediatley jumped on storyteller. My gut’s also telling me to take a closer look at him toMorrow. Voted OAOW Day 1, Hal Briston Day 2, WF Mhaye Day 3.
Fretful Porpentine - Was the center of early drama with her “no Scout” assertions. I’ve also agreed with her ideas on catching scum, specifically looking at the people outside of the OAOW lynch (which turns out to be void unless Rugger is scum) and looking closer at those that immediately jumped on storyteller. My gut reading is leaning townie. Voted OAOW Day 1, ShadowFacts Day 2, Pollux Oil Day 3
Santo Rugger - Replacement for CatinaSuit. Didn’t pick up on anything scummy that Cat did during Day 1, but a reread of Cat’s posts vs. Rugger’s posts could uncover something I missed. I feel that of storyteller’s two “investigations”, Rugger’s is probably more likely to be truthful. But again, that’s a big ol’ helping of WIFOM. Biggest point for me is Rugger’s insistance yesterDay that we should lynch ShadowFacts first, discuss things later. My gut is wavering between both townie and scum on Rugger, so I’ll examine him more closely. Voted Freudian Slit Day 1, sachertorte Day 2, Freudian Slit Day 3.
Darth Mhaye - Initially was very suspicious of Darth for his OAOW vote Day 1 and then his explanation of “being lazy” afterwards. Thought he might be partners with Freudian but that bubble burst when she turned up town. Since Mhaye’s taken over, I haven’t felt like he’s been acting particularly scummy. He’s still on my list to look at specifically toMorrow. Voted OAOW Day 1, WF Mhaye Day 2, WF Mhaye Day 3. (Hey, he voted for himself how about that.)
Hal Briston - I think it’s a sign that I was compiling my list of people to do a full info dump analysis on, and I got 8 people but the person I couldn’t remember was Hal. I don’t think it’s a real scum tell one way or the other (his lurking, I mean) but there’s less to go back and analyze about him. Voted OAOW Day 1, ShadowFacts Day 2, ShadowFacts Day 3.
I’m not getting this logic at all. What makes it look bad for Nanook at all? He’s the SECOND person to vote for storyteller. Why would scum deliberately put that much unneeded pressure on a fellow scum on Day one? I can see finding a reason to vote for fellow scum, but I can’t see potentially starting a bandwagon against him. The only possibly motivation I can see is if he thought it was going to start a bandwagon and was trying to get on it early, but I don’t see that as any more likely than that he saw OAOW’s argument, argreed with it, and thought it was the best reason to vote so far.
So, as long as you’re going to pursue this, I want to know why scum would jump on townie reasoning based on a slip that, whether it was a slip or not, might very well reveal some VERY important information. That is, if storyteller were lynched on Day One, particularly if that slip were the driving reason, we would have known, or at least assumed, at that point that there were only three scum, which means we could have surmised much sooner information about the game’s setup. So, if it’s true that there’s only three scum, this would explain why storyteller could make his claim, and also WHY he made his claim because the scum had to engage in damage control to keep that information from becoming common knowledge that early in the game.
storyteller’s investigations are utterly useless. He knew from the moment he made his claim that his Days were numbered. IOW, he knew that they would be analyzed and reanalyzed later. Once a scum knows his death is coming, everything he says becomes a pure WIFOM game. Is he saying it because he’s telling the truth and hoping we won’t believe him? Is he lying and hoping we’ll believe him?
His investigations are about as useful as a scum who is about to be lynched and leaves a “good bye post” that names names. IOW, don’t trust it; don’t not trust it. It’s simply completely useless.
I’ll try to reply to this real quick before the Day ends.
Basically I can sum it up in one word: panic. If storyteller makes a slip, the scum know it’s a slip. A scum has perfect information and since they know the slip is obvious to them, their gut reaction may be “Oh shit, we’re screwed, everybody’s going to jump on him for this, it’s all over.” Sure, thinking clearly about the situation might lead to them realizing it’s not a good idea to lynch storyteller immediately. But sometimes people just don’t think clearly. Hopefully that makes sense.
On that note, looks like I’m out of time. I’ll have to wait 'til Tomorrow to get my cases out there.
You’re right… sometimes they don’t, but sometimes they do. What gives you reason to believe that either Nanook or I are necessarily more likely to be one than the other. And for that matter… what makes you think certain people who potentially didn’t mention it (and I may have to go back and read more to see) aren’t necessarily the latter rather than the former.
I also don’t think that the immediate panicked reaction is necessarily to vote for him. I think there’s probably more information to be gained from a good reread of that series of events.
Hey folks.
Guess what, you killed storyteller! YAY! Unanimous vote and everything.
Storyteller - Townsperson
is dead.
What?
Naw, I’m just fucking with you. I am a dick I know, I just couldn’t resist.
This time for real
Storyteller - Alpha Wolf
Is dead.
Good job town.
See you in the AM
nevermind.
Alpha even, huh?
True story. You caught the Alpha wolf.
Players:
Koldanar
Hal Briston
Fretful Porpentine
Nanook of the North Shore
Pollux Oil
Blaster Master
[del]Darth Sensitive Ryjae[/del] MHaye[sup]3[/sup]
[del]CatInASuit[/del] Santo Rugger
OneAndOnlyWanderers - Townsperson (Lynched Day 1)
RoOsh - Townsperson (Killed Night 1)
sachertorte - Townsperson (Lynched Day 2)
[del]Hockey Monkey[/del] MHaye - Townsperson (Killed Night 2)
Freudian Slit - Townsperson (Lynched Day 3)
[del]WF Tomba[/del] MHaye[sup]2[/sup] - Townsperson (Killed Night 3)
ShadowFacts - Townsperson (Lynched Day 4)
DiggitCamara - Townsperson (Killed Night 4)
Storyteller - Alpha Wolf (Lynched Day 5)
You’re an ass Naf. We love you anyways though.
And yay Alpha Wolf! That sounds like a leader/godfather type. Good stuff.
So, apparently Storyteller only plays scum when he can lead them:
M2: Godfather
M4: subbed back in as the scum captain
and of course here.
…Interesting.
No. He caught himself. 
I am trying to give you guys some of the credit here. Take the compliments where you can get them.
The hell? Why sell out the Alpha? Ack…everything I write about it skates up against nighttime strategizing, so this’ll just have to keep until morning.
Awesome, we got the alpha. Err…strange. Anyway, Blaster, sorry for getting out an incomplete post like that…damn work suddenly became a whirlwind, and i wanted a partial dump before night