Sweet deal. 
Anyone else see this exchange as mod confirmation? looking around hopefully
Just a heads up. I am putting the start of the Day together now.
(More for Diver than anyone else.)
Once again you gather in the town square and a strange feeling overcomes you. It’s like you have been here before. Ok, so literally, you HAVE been here before, but it is something more than that. The whole morning has a strange Deja Vu like qulaity to it. You look around trying to shake off the feeling, but it won’t go away…and then it hits you.
Where is MHaye?
Oh my god WHERE IS MHAYE!
Not again NOOOOOO!!!
Sadly, it’s true.
MHaye - townsperson
has been killed.
Again.
No love for you here in Cecilvania man. Why don’t you hang up your hat and head over to the spoiler boards.
Let’s get this party started.
Players:
Koldanar
Hal Briston
Fretful Porpentine
Nanook of the North Shore
Pollux Oil
Blaster Master
[del]CatInASuit[/del] Santo Rugger
OneAndOnlyWanderers - Townsperson (Lynched Day 1)
RoOsh - Townsperson (Killed Night 1)
sachertorte - Townsperson (Lynched Day 2)
[del]Hockey Monkey[/del] MHaye - Townsperson (Killed Night 2)
Freudian Slit - Townsperson (Lynched Day 3)
[del]WF Tomba[/del] MHaye[sup]2[/sup] - Townsperson (Killed Night 3)
ShadowFacts - Townsperson (Lynched Day 4)
DiggitCamara - Townsperson (Killed Night 4)
Storyteller - Alpha Wolf (Lynched Day 5)
[del]Darth Sensitive Ryjae[/del] MHaye[sup]3[/sup] (killed Night 5)
Can somebody help me finish this train of thought…
So, Dracula doesn’t want to bite anybody that has a chance of being a wolf, because they’d die. If they believed** story** was really the Constable, they’d have bit both Koldanar and myself. So, when/if both Kold and myself turn up dead and non-zombified, we can conclude that either there is no Dracula, or that Dracula didn’t believe story.
On to business…
I’m quite suspicious of both BlaM and Pollux. Both of them have come in at the last possible Hour to get their posts in, virtually assuring that discussion wasn’t focused on them. I’m more suspicious of BlaM for his post yesterday touting how good the original sequence indicting **story **made him look.
While I agree that Pollux Oil is suspicious and I intend on reviewing the case against him, your generalization about me is patently false. This is just plain suspicion mongering here. I didn’t come in Yesterday at the last possible hour to get my posts in. And why is it suspicious that I mentioned something looked good in my favor? It’s not even like I went out of my way to do it either. Should I have left myself out of the analysis? Would you feel less suspicious if someone else had done the same analysis? Do you disagree with it?
It was the Day before Yesterday, then? Semantics. It’s not so much suspicious to me that you mentioned how good something made you look, but, while there may be information to be gleaned on what happened with story, as you said yourself, it’s a fool’s chase. Using said chase to make yourself look good, IMHO, does the opposite.
Does it actually matter that he’s the Alpha? As far as I can tell, if there’s no Constable, the Alpha is basically just a vanilla wolf.
Still, it’s interesting that they chose to have him get caught rather than sell out another Wolf.
story claimed under pressure… although, in retrospect, he must have faked his frustration in order to get the claim out. Regardless, I don’t find it interesting at all; had their been a Constable that investigated him, they would have gotten a Town reading.
Well, yes, but by then it was obvious that there wasn’t a real Constable and nothing to stop the scum, if they so chose, having storyteller sell out one of his fellow Wolves rather than reporting that a townie was a Wolf. If they had done this, they would have the same number of players they have now and a fake Constable who was still in the town’s good graces.
The fact that they didn’t do this suggests that they either thought storyteller was about to get caught anyway, or else they really, really wanted a townie lynch on Day Four.
I understand now, I thought you meant have another Wolf claim Constable instead of the Alpha. If they knew there was no Constable, then I don’t think they would have thought story would have gotten caught soon. I think figuring out why they wanted a Townie lynch may be the key to our little puzzle.
No, it is NOT semantics. It’s a blatant misrepresentation of the facts. Whether something happened on one Day or another is very pertinent to any analysis that goes on in this game.
Yes, I missed most of one Day, but it WAS due to RL circumstances and not due to simply not showing up
Why is is suspicious to point out something that makes me look good when it’s thoroughly relevant to the analysis I’m performing? I think there’s plenty of information to be gleaned from storyteller’s claim precisely because it was unplanned (since it was Day One and the scum had no chance to discuss ahead of time) and because it was done under pressure.
So let’s review my analysis again, shall we? I theorize that voting for fellow scum is something that’s possible on Day One. Further, I theorize that it’s most likely to be done either to try to be a one-off sort of vote, or once it looks like a lost cause. I think it’s unlikely that scum would put the mounting pressure votes on fellow scum. As such, the vote most likely to be scum on storyteller would have been OAOW, and he is town. The other two votes simply aren’t consistent with scum behavior. If storyteller knew that one or even two of the votes on him were scum, the pressure would have been less. I think he saw a mounting townie pile-on and wanting to nip it in the bud. Thus, I think this looks good for the other two voters, one of which happens to be me.
Further, it’s not even like I went out of my way to try to make myself look good. Someone said that they thought the other early voters for storyteller were suspicious, and my analysis leads me to the opposite conclusion. Based on that analysis, it would take some fairly compelling evidence for me to vote against Nanook simply because that behavior on Day One is just plain inconsistent with scummy behavior.
So, how about rather that going “oh, it’s suspicious that you think something looks good for you”, why don’t you, I dunno, do some analysis.
I’m leaning strongly toward the former. The scum hadn’t even tried to target storyteller, they hadn’t come across the doctor, they hadn’t come across any power role at all. We had no masons claim, no nothing. People started as early as Day Two saying we should lynch storyteller, and it was becoming more and evidence was mounting that it was a likely all vanilla game. I think the logic went something like this: “they’re looking like they’re getting ready to lynch storyteller Tomorrow, he’ll almost certainly get lynched in the next two Days if he continues to turn up townies, or we can have him claim to have caught a wolf and almost certainly get at least one more townie lynch out of his death.”
IOW, I think it’s entirely reasonable that if he continued to find townies, especially since he was claiming to be investigating who he found to be most suspicious, they probably figured he’d be lynched within a Day or two. Thus, if they figured it was close to certain that he’d get lynched within 2 Days, then completely dominating discussion for 2 Days to minimize our information gain, and assuring that at least one of those lynches is a townie is the superior choice to letting the town keep looking, very likely lynching storyteller, and possibly even lynching another wolf on the other of those two Days. The scum advantage in that option is pretty clear.
Another potential, but a bit WIFOM, reason for them to do that is that the wolves would actually get to essentially dictate to us who we would lynch. Did they want Shadow Facts dead because they viewed him as the most dangerous? Did they want him dead because they figured he’d be a good balance between eliminating a threat and relatively easy to lynch? I’m not sure how useful this line of thought is, but it is possible that there’s information to be gained by reviewing some of Shadow Facts’ opinions and such on the Day prior to his lynch.
That is my analysis. :rolleyes: And I disagree with your premise.
Scum would NEVER do that, you’re right!
(OUT OF GAME : I told NAF but I’m telling you guys…my home PC has tanked atm and I need to try to find a way to reinstall windows on an uncooperative RAID setup. Last night was also an awful night. so I think I’ll be going home early today)
This is what I was trying to do thursday…I went back and was going to go through both Sach’s posting, and Shadow’s postings, and kickstart some analysis back up. Thats why my last post of the day was targeted at you; Sach had an awful lot to say about your actions. But I haven’t even got to the others yet.
To sum up :
Koldanar
Hal
Blaster
Pollux
Fretful
Santo
Nanook
All remain. And everyone’s been quieter today. I was suspicious of Darth Tomba (as was Pollux) but he’s gone…so we have 2 (remote possibility of 3?) left amongst us 7. Ugh…I need to get more sleep to work this out.
I dunno, I think this line of thought is dangerous. The WiFoM is so easily manipulated, because one could say **Shadow **was dangerous because he was suspicious of all the right people, or he was killed because scum wanted to make it look like he was killed because he was suspicious of all the right people.
Well, then, it’s either just plain lazy or utterly useless or both. And I’m done arguing with you on that point unless you’re actually going to bring anything to the table besides baseless perceptions and “I disagree”
I never said they’d never do it. However, I think it’s fair to say it’s something that’s unlikely to occur on Day one without any discussion beforehand and with someone that is likely one of their stronger players. Is it possible? Sure, but it’s very unlikely. In order to say it looks bad you’re basically saying that scum are more likely than not to have engaged in that, and that’s not consistent with either observation or with the available facts. So if you’re going to say, yeah, I think they’d have good reason to do it, considering the circumstances, then I want to see a reason other than a bunch of snarkiness.
As I said so myself. I think it is WIFOM and I don’t think it’s particularly useful. What I want is to review what he said. I don’t want to go “oh, he thought this, he was probably picked because they don’t want us to follow up on it, therefore it’s probably true” or “oh, he thought this he was probably picked because they want us to believe it, therefore it’s probably false”. I want to evaluate them on their own merits because it IS where the town was going prior to the scum essentially eating up two Days worth of discussion and we now have the additional information of knowing that he was definitely town and that storyteller was definitely scum.
In reality, I think the most likely reason he was chosen was because he was an easy target. He was already under some suspicion from many of us so we’d be likely to believe storyteller when he accused him and he was loud so he could easily be manipulated to help extinguish useful discussion and, without him prodding us, would potentially lead to less discussion on subsequent Days as has been the case. IOW, hence why I think think it’s ultimately useless to evaluate the WIFOM even if we could see a leaning, I think his arguments are probably virtually immaterial to the reasoning behind why he was killed.
Ok…i’m getting back to this post now. In Shadow’s Final Post he puts forth those that are scummy to him, and none of them have been held accountable to that post since (I believe?). Diggit has already been revealed to be town, so what Shadow put forth seems like a good list to look at for our remaining scum.
Here, shadow put forth a scum handoff theory. One got quiet (Blaster) and handed off to the other, who had already claimed a town role, and targeted Shadow. I doubt it’s any coincidence that story picked on shadow the day before he claimed shadow was a wolf. The problem is since then, alot of what blaster has put forth has fallen in the WIFOM neighborhood, with his opinions. Where’s the analysis? You told me yesterday you had suspicions on me…please put those out for us to look at. Analysis isn’t my strong point, I tend to do better when those who analyze put forth thoughts and I can build on them.