Btw, it was post 2094 where PO referenced OAOW’s secret power.
Sorry, don’t do the link thingy worth a crud.
My scumdar blows in Conspiracy, y’all. I used to trust it, but this particular game makes it useless, because the things I like to look for are worthless in a game where the scum have only marginally more information than the Townies, and equal motivation to hunt down other scum during the Day. I had this problem as an unspoiled observer the first time, and here… ugh.
Here’s what I think. mhaye, I pretty strongly disagree with your vote for hawkeyeop. We will achieve faster resolution with him and the other two Mason claimants via their circle investigation plan (ie, if all three confirm one another, then it looks pretty good for all three, don’t you think?). In the hopes that the above will happen, which will simplify our lives considerably, I’d prefer to leave the Masons alone toDay. I can’t think of a benefit to doing otherwise.
My strongest ping right now is from NAF. The precipitating factor is the fact that he is now working the “Cookies-is-the-Vampire” angle so very hard, when earlier today (real life today, not just toDay) he was using phrases like “Cookies and I will be confirmed toNight.” Otherwise, it’s hard to pin down how I feel, but to my eye NAF has been scrambling all Day, taking whatever positions seem most convenient and most conducive to his own survival. He has seemed, to use my very favorite word, opportunistic. Again, my scumdar is fucked this time around, but in the interest of putting my money where my metaphorical mouth is:
vote NAF
This vote is definitely subject to change. Cookies? Oh, who the hell knows? The only event that I will view as even partially supporting her claim would be a third kill on any Night, of a player generally considered likely to be anti-Town. Even that wouldn’t do it completely, though, because there could be a Cabal kill and she could be a Caballero.
Pollux vs. peeker is a nearly impossible decision to make. I just don’t know. Peeker is doing that thing as regards me (where he continues to worry about me long after the likelihood that I am scum has approached zero) that I have come to think of as characteristically Townie. Pollux has lurked his brains out in this game. Pushed to make a choice, I would lynch Pollux of the two.
I won’t speculate on the Scotsmen, mostly because I don’t see benefit in lynching either of them toDay.
Subject to change for a couple of hours.
Freemason lynch seems the worst of all worlds. Let them have a another cycle and see what they come up with.
Vig: either cookies is scum or a town aligned vig. Let her kill tonight and either she takes out one of our scummier prospects or townie. She will either be a heroine or scum bag.
Mag can still protect, right? I’ll take a chance on this. If we’ve got two, so much the better, if not still a bunch of danger for the baddies.
Scotsman. I’d rather a baddie use up a kill attemp than town a lynch.
Vicar. I know that I am town and PO is full of hoo (I don’t think that there are more than one of us) This is a really safe claim for PO 'cause you don’t want to get caught in a Mason group type of situation where it’s my team against your team. Also, if all the solo slots have been filled up, where else to go. And if you didn’t have any other teammates to coordinate with where are you stuck? Yikes, a solo.
Vote Pollux Oil
Yeah, this most definitely my mistake. I thought I specified in this post, but looks like I didn’t. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10065746&postcount=2058 That was my investigation from yesterday.
I wouldn’t say I was rushed in that claim. Would you?
You said “Since my lynch priority is Vampire before Cabal before Werewolf right now, that moves Hawkeyeop to the top of my lynch list” I took that to mean you thought I was a vampire. The question remains for cabal though.
I mostly agree with your theory. Just I believe that there are two cabal left, and I think I have a good idea who the second one is.
vote Naf
I keep bringing up the point that it wouldn’t make sense for a cabalist to claim mason. So I thought about what would make sense for them, and magician is a perfect fit. Let’s assume for a minute that Nanook wasn’t totally lying and the cabalist do have a kill. When I was scum I tried to be as truthful as possible, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Nanook did as well. So tonight the cabal can block Cookies, attack a Scotsman, and voila Naf’s confirmed.
Naf has been all over the place today. He talks about how he lost faith in his ability to locate and convince other people to vote for people based on scum analysis, and then makes a vote purely on said analysis. He doesn’t want to vote for Drainbead because she is a likely wolf, but will vote for someone he thinks his analysis means is a likely wolf. He has been both for and against pretty much every plan mentioned. Plus, his push to make the cabal not that important bugs me too makes me think I’m on the right track.
I have no problem laying down a
vote for NAF.
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I havn’t been all over the place. I have made a logical progression in my thought process. I haven’t had a lot of time to play, so sorry if it took me a bit to get quite up to speed with what made sense to me.
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I swear I am not a cabalist. That doesn’t mean much and you will have to kill me to be sure of that, but if you are voting for me because you think I am Cabal then you are being dumb. I may be underestimating the danger of the Cabal, but right now I don’t think they are our biggest threat and don’t know why everyone seems to think they are. Tell me what I am not seeing and I will change my mind.
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I said I lost my faith in my ability to convince others of my theories not in myself. I think I am right. I always think I am right, because I usually am. I was right about Pedescribe and Dio and ShadowFacts (even though I didn’t say anything about Shadow, he got killed too soon). I can point to my track record of being right in other games as well. It’s frankly the only thing that I am really solidly good at in this game. The way the last 24 hours have gone have convinced me that I am incapable of doing anything but get myself lynched when I try to convince people of my theories.
And story…et tu? I haven’t been pushing the Cookies is a vamp angel, I have been pointing out where she has been twisting my words to make it seem that way. You asked for a compeling reason to lynch Cookies, I gave you one in her responses to my behavior. But I didn’t vote for her, and I won’t be voting for her.
I STILL THINK THE BEST TEST WOULD BE TO HAVE HER ATTACK ME.
Don’y know how many times I can say that. No it wouldn’t be definitive, but hey what is in this situation. So congradulations to Cookies on sucessfully baiting me once again. I think this is the third game where you have managed to get me to talk myself into getting voted for. I should go back to not paying attention to what you say. 
(smilie inserted to indicate that there are no hard feelings, it is just a game no matter how seriously I seem to take it at times)
Ohh you voted for me. Quick question…wouldn’t you rather kill me yourself? Just curious.
Unvote Hawkeyeop.
Having slept on it, I’m willing for the Masons to (hand)shake themselves out. Also, I note he did in fact mention his Day Five test; I apologise for missing the statement.
NAF, I suspect the root cause of your downplaying the threat of the Cabal stems from one of two reasons. Either you are one (and I have read what you say), or you and the rest of us have different opinions on how far the Cabal are from achieving their win condition.
I see NAF still hasn’t explained why he’s unwilling to vote for me because he thinks I’m a wolf, but IS willing to vote for someone ELSE who he thinks is a wolf. He has been remarkably inconsistent all Day, but that one takes the cake. I boggled when he did the analysis, and I’m boggling now. I think the most likely explanation is that he’s a Cabalist, and we need to get rid of the Cabalists to keep them from blocking Koldanar every Night, leaving the Furries and Vamp free to kill whomever else they want.
vote NAF
I don’t think that would work. The Scotsman would learn the identity of the person who attacked them and know it wasn’t Cookies.
Sorry, have to lay a vote down quick in case.
vote Pollux oil
Even lurkier than the last game (where he was scum) and hsn’t said much of anything this Day at all, after some attention was on him. I may switch my vote to NAF, after reading the case against him today. I am DAMN busy at work though, and no idea when / if that may happen before the end.
Actually, I’m not sure what we do about Pollux Oil. His absence toDay, while I don’t consider it scummy in and of itself, renders it almost impossible to analyze his participation. As a Vicar claimant, he’s never going to get Night killed. This means that sooner or later, one way or another, he’s going to have to die.
I would vote for him, toDay, if the general consensus is that Pollux is a better target than NAF. At lunchtime, I will pull together a longer analysis of NAF’s participation so far, but doing post histories on this board is a lot harder than doing them off-board, since I can’t search for only NAF’s posts in this thread.
Third reason you hadn’t thought of, I havnen’t been paying as close attention to this game as I should have been for the last Day or two.
I don’t suposse we want to all mass bandwagon on Drain Bead since she practically just came out and said she was a wolf in her last post?
I can’t believe how unbelievably bad I have gotten at this game. The first time I actively participate in weeks and I manage to get myself lynched in 24 hours time. It’s like all I have to do is talk and people vote for me.
vote Pollux Oil
I’ve been all over the place over the last couple of hours regarding who to vote for. There are just too many legitimate targets. However, Pollux’s lurking, the unlikelihood of there being two Vicars, the expendability of Vicars now that the Necromancer is dead, and the way that he waited for all the other claims to be made before speaking up all make me think that he’s a relatively safe place to put my vote.
Hah. I don’t want a wolf dead. I want those blocky bastards off my back so I can aim my mystical brain powers willy-nilly amongsts the survivors!
I didn’t think so.
I am not all that opposed to me being lynched really, I think the town can afford it. I also think that town has this game in a walk. I am just a little sad that about the time that I am really able to devote a little time and everything isn’t a foregone conclusion is when I get lynched.
It’s particularly upsetting when 2 of the people voting for me are people I am 100% sure are scum.
Since I am going to get lynched anyway I might as well post up some of my final thoughts.
First, to story and MHaye. I will make a last ditch effort to not get lynched. Reread toDay if you don’t have time to re-read everything. Re read it twice. Once with the idea that I am scum, once with the idea that I am town. If at the end of those reads you still think I am scum I won’t fight the lynch. (In reality I won’t be fighting it anyway, Wednesdays are typically bad for me and this one in particular is going to be a beast. I don’t expect to be able to post much after this)
I actually trust that the two of you both know what you are doing AND don’t have an agenda that is anti town. Look particularly at my interaction with Cookies and the series of events that occured immediatly after story said he was suspicious of my claim, after MHaye said that I was underestimating the danger of the Cabal, and at the reaction of people after story voted for me. To me it is clear what is going on, but then I know that I am town so it makes it easier.
Second, I think I was wrong about Cookies being a vamp. Going over our interactions in my head last night I am increasingly certain that she doesn’t have a killing power and that is why she has been so resistant to targeting me for a kill toNight as well as being the reason why she has been hanging on so tightly to me saying I thought she was a vamp. It is something she knows I got wrong. When I said I thought she was likely the vamp it was just because that seemed to fit her claim and was an extreamly minor part of my thought process. It was practically a throw away. The fact that that is what she picked up on to use in arguing with me has changed my mind. My new conclusion is that she is most likely Cabal.
Have Cookies target DB tonight. She admited that she was a wolf. If DB isn’t dead in the morning you should lynch Cookies.
Good luck town. There are three scum exposed and ready to die. If we don’t win this in a walk there is something seriously wrong.
Okay. I’m changing my vote not because I think Hawkeye isn’t scum but because we seem to have agreed to let the Mason claims sort themselves out.
I’m not voting for Pollux just because at the moment there seems to be a tie, and Pollux has not yet voted and risks mod-kill. In the hopes that that will happen and that maybe we can kill two birds with one stone, I’ll
unvote Hawkeyeop
vote NAF1138
Exactly where have I expressed a resistance to targeting you tonight, NAF? Oh that’s right…I haven’t. I’ve voted for you, and I’m not the only one. If you happen to talk yourself out of the noose, I’m more than happy to consider targeting you toNight. And before you start spinning my use of the word “consider”, I am allowing for the (readily apparent) possibility that consensus regarding the scotsman-by-proxy test might change by Nightfall.
<color and voting elided>
Here is one place where I am at a loss. If Pollux is to be modkilled, do we gain the most as a Town from lynching him instead, or from lynching someone else? The former approach seems to me to be more conservative, but not necessarily a bad approach given where we now stand. Thoughts?