Mafia: Evil Dead - DAY/NIGHT ONE

And a Happy Chanuka to you too!

I have enjoyed postapoluza Night 1 very much. I just wish I had more time to actually post (stupid office making me work on Christmas Eve. Didn’t they learn anything from Bob Cratchet!? Humbug.)

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And, I hear what you are saying but …

It seems like we always have a LTL discussion early on (because that’s what scum do) and then it devolves into parsing early on mis-phrases and a town gets it in the neck, so to speak. The fact that it worked in this case seems to be much more the exception than the rule, at least early on.

I don’t have a clue what tolerance level Story has set for posting levels. But I know he has said that no votes will not be a cause for mod-kill. Additionlly, subs really stink because they bring their predecessors baggage with them and they also bring a whole new style. And without votes to establish patterns it makes it incrementally more difficult for the town. By my count, we had roughly 20 percent non voters. I know that some got squeezed by the board outage but I just don’t see how hanging onto your vote until less that four hours remains in the Day is being all that contemplative. I do respect a well reasoned vote but waiting until the last minute really is not that helpful. How are others able to dissect and question reasoning when there is such little time left in the Day?

And that leads me to my last point regarding posting styles. It is merely one weight lended to attempting alignment. Folks have RL stuff going on. Sometimes one evolves and learns from past experiences, so it is just one factor of many. Having said that I am fairly convinced that if I showed up talking and making sense like Stephen Hawking that my skinny ass would be swinging at the end of the Day.

Another two cents.

NETA: It’s the lurking that scum do, not the discussion of said lurking.

Merry Christmas one and all.

Apparently Santa passed overhead a little early this year; at least so says NORAD. Ain’t American tax dollars wonderful?

I’m behind on my reading because I succumbed to the impulse to watch tonight’s Midsomer Murder. So maybe I’ll catch up a bit before nipping off to sleep.

About Pleo–I harbor little grudge for a early first-day vote, simply because they are, by necessity, built on little evidence and leaps of faith. And I don’t begrudge him for pointing out my slip (and :sigh: yes, it was a slip) because it was rather obvious. And since he unvoted me early as well, I’m putting that as a point in the ‘townie’ column. I’m much more suspicious of Almost Human for bumping up my case from ‘typical first day voting’ to ‘viable bandwagon’ than I am of Pleonast for first accusing me of screwing up. And his case on TF is very similar to mine. I’m just not seeing it, Thing Fish, though that might be because I’m voting for you, and currently regard everything you say with extra suspicion.

Also, there’s something in my role that I think you all might want to know. In my PM…

Personally, I’m thinking they’re PFK. Thoughts?

Well, let’s not do to that then. For night one we have a very good piece of evidence. Namely we found a scum. Scum don’t work in a vacuum, they will be helped by their teammates. Not always, but I find it unlikely that fellow scums will throw a new player here over the bus on day one.

I’m going to go back to the need to punish scummy behavior, and that includes attempts to push lynches away from scum. Town can be wrong, but if we don’t punish wrongness, scum will have free reign to control day votes.

Watching my game, one thing I picked up on was relationships between posters were more important than individual posts. The quality of an argument doesn’t really say anything. Coming up with credible reasoning isn’t terribly difficult. What reveals more is when players support other players, and when they don’t. With that in mind I’m going to go over every post concerning Macey from the “slip” to death.

This statement sticks out to me like a sore thumb. With a single brush stroke you are a) dismissing argument quality as a variable to be considered during analysis and b) advocating instead for an analysis strategy that has a significant false positive rate.

I’d also be extremely curious as to how you are going to define “when players support other players” and “when they don’t”.

Let me be clear. If player A accuses player B of being scum, the quality of A’s argument is important in determining whether player B is scum. I just don’t think it is terribly useful in determining if player A is scum.

Funny (well probably not) you should ask. I’m almost positive you will come up as likely scum. I’ll try to get the full analysis with detailed explanation posted in the next day or two.

Even though votes carry over during the Day/Night cycle, is there a pro-Town benefit to dropping votes during the Night, when anybody could potentially wake up dead the next Morning?

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You know this is kind of an interesting quote. And I am not sure whether the following observation is at all what you are driving at but will say it nonetheless. When I first started playing this game I really felt like an outsider looking in. It seemed that folks had buddies and it was all kind of “cliqueish”. I know there was the begining of a debacle on Idle’s site regarding the FB clan and how they were “sticking” up for each other.

After playing a number of games here and there I have come to the conclusion that that is a really macro level observation. It seems to me that each of us are doing our best for our respective team. Any behavior that is ascribed to a certain group’s relationships (out of game) seems flimsy. If you are talking about the relationships that develop within game, then I totally agree. Having said that, the only relationships that should exist are with groups that share a common goal. IMHO, at this point, townies don’t have enough information to have developed those relationships (unless you are “Mason” like). Therefore to the extent that it can be reasonably established that such a relationship exists should make one take pause and go, Hmmmm.

Is this at all close or has the Egg Nog gone to my head? I am just trying to put in words what is floating around in my brain. And if I am totally off base any illumination would be appreciated.

BTW, got a nephew a remote controlled tank that makes all sorts of noises. The dogs are on top of the bed, the cats have made themselves scarce and I am literally laughing my rear off.

Yes. It firmly establishes your opinion more than any other words can. Besides, what’s the worst that could happen with dropping votes during the night, even if people could wake up dead?

You are still very confused–they were not the same idea! I pointed this out earlier. Rapier, who I voted for, supported Chucara’s original idea; I supported the modified one.

You have now done three scummy things, in my opinion.

  1. Accusing me of supporting and opposing the same idea, which were in fact two separate ideas.
  2. Accusing me of driving the lynch train against pedescribe when I did no such thing.
  3. When confronted with point 2, saying that voting for someone and then back off, is something scum could. Well, it’s something a Townie could do as well. You’ve explained your reasoning more (thank you), but it’s still a poor reason to base a vote. The fact is, I was right: ped did slip up, and I was correct in inferring that he was Town.

Note also, your first impression to my pointing out the slip:

A couple other responses to you.

  • I did not vote for ped to see his reaction. I pointed out his slip to see his reaction. The vote was to encourage a response and attract attention from others.
  • Your vote for me had two reasons original. The first involves your confusion about churcara’s ideas. The second was your interpretation of my use of “ignore”. I had already addressed that, as you even admitted, so there’s no reason for me to talk to it. (Actually, that’s kind of scummy, trying to make others think I haven’t addressed that point, when I did before you even brought it up. Count that as a 4th.)

(This post was composed in pieces over the last 20 some hours, so it’s a little disjointed.)

Power roles lying would defeat the purpose of revealing. We want to be able to use truthfulness to distinguish Townie from Deadite. The reason they could not lie and not be caught by scum is

  1. Vanilla Townies would claim targets that are reasonable targets for power roles. For example, pedescribe is a logical target Tonight.
  2. A failed Night kill does not necessarily mean the target was protected.

PLAYERS

  1. Pleonast
  2. peekercpa
  3. brewha
  4. mhaye
  5. Blaster Master
  6. NAF1138
  7. Diggitcamara
  8. pedescribe
  9. Nanook of the North Shore
  10. bufftabby
  11. Hockey Monkey
  12. JSexton
  13. Millit the Frail
  14. Zeriel
  15. Hal Briston
  16. Almost Human
  17. Thing Fish
  18. Total Lost
  19. Rapier42
  20. hawkeyeop
  21. Natlaw
  22. dotchan
  23. CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
  24. macey - LYNCHED DAY ONE
  25. special ed
  26. Chucara
  27. amrussell
    DAY ONE

macey (9) - brewha, hawkeyeop, hockey monkey, special ed, dotchan, JSexton, pedescribe, Rapier42, Millit the Frail
Thing Fish (4) - total lost, peekercpa, Pleonast, Chucara
Chucara (2) - NAF1138, Diggitcamara
Pleonast (1) - Thing Fish
peekercpa (1) - Natlaw
CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (1) - bufftabby
Blaster Master (1) - CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Rapier42 (1) - amrussell
No Vote (7) - MHaye, Blaster Master, Nanook of the North, Zeriel, Hal Briston, Almost Human, macey

Colors: Unknown, Town, Deadite

Just dropped in to wish everyone a merry Christmas!

Funny you should say that, because I knew you’d be coming after me. You’ll be wrong if that is what you come up with, but I look forward to reading your analysis. It should help me decide whether or not you’re scum who is so confident that I’d make a good target because you already knew that macey was scum, and started plotting as soon as you read my post referencing the case against macey and whether or not I should vote for you out of the gate Tomorrow.

Going back to the card trick setup analogy that has been mentioned a few times with respect to people compiling lists of those who they think are scummy based on some subjective interpretation…

A hypothetical for you:

The scum are sitting back, knowing that macey is one of their own. Any non-scum who questioned the case against macey and chose to vote elsewhere would be a good target for a Card Trick play. Now all the scum have to do is lay out some seemingly reasonable principles regarding…oh…let’s say “when players support other players” and “when they don’t”. Then they spin the posts made questioning the case against macey as having been “supporting” macey, maybe throw in a vote to get the ball rolling and with a little luck, they instigate enough paranoia to turn their buddy’s lynch into a catalyst for town-on-town violence.

At this point, you’re going to have to convince me that is not what you’re doing. And I’m afraid you have your work cut out for you.

Santa Claus is coming to town. Santa Claus is coming to town. He’s making a fucking list and HR is making him check it twice. Jill from records goes bye bye and Joe from Customer Service, on his voice mail says, hi (never to heard from again).

The sups are finding out who is naughty. “George, don’t do that on the desk” or nice.

So Santa Claus is coming to town …

Yada Yada Yada

No soup for you.

Lois, I’ve got a great idea.

Mmmmm, bacon.

Rejoice all.

I don’t think the player pool is big enough to create enough noise to hide in.

I don’t have experience balancing games, so take these numbers with a grain of salt, just using them for a better example.

5 power roles with target
15 other town
5 scum
2 pfk

On average that means an action is covered by the power role, three townies and one scum. Whenever the scum find out an action, they have a shortlist of four players instead of 22! If the cover guessed wrong, the list is shorter.
Covering for a vigilante would be very risky: pick the scum kill and scum knows you lied (not a power role).

The target information is useful to the scum right away, but only to town when a scum false claims. And even then they could just claim 50% success rate if they picked a target wrong.
Another way to look at it: we would need to find 5 scum in 22 lying people instead of 7, so it covers scum better than the power roles. Vanillas are distracted by trying to guess power role actions to cover instead of finding scum.

Dot I’ve said it before and will say again, I think we need to treat this as a very long Day, with only 72 hours a Day and 48 hours per Night coming up we won’t have enough time to spend jerking around during the Night to make any progress. Kind of like pre-season in a sense.

And Tf - Pleo and hawk - cookies. Y’all really need to get counseling. I read somewhere that nine out of ten dentists recommend Trident and five out of six psychoanalysts recommend some form of therapy.

I’m not saying it’s suspicious just yet, but I am starting to wonder about the folks who are still discussing the short-lived idea of claiming targets. I’m starting to feel like it’s just noise disguised as content. I could be wrong, but it’s still starting to make me wonder. I’m short on ideas at this point. Something tells me that the rest of the scum aren’t going to run around, holding a Wile E. Coyote-style “I’m scum!” sign, waiting for us to crush them with an anvil.