Mafia: Evil Dead - DAY/NIGHT SEVEN

[Almost_Human]

As requested by Special Ed here’s why I’m suspicious of JSexton. In proper detail this time.

Day 1 he rode Pleo’s arse and voted for him till macey made his slip. There’s a pretty good chance Pleo could’ve been lynched if that hadn’t happened. That Night Pleo’s NKd. Coincidence? Yes it could be.

But then Day 2 he’s riding hawk (yes I was too I know). Again hawk could well have been lynched that Day if not for peeker outing himself. Again hawk’s NKd that Night.

[QUOTE=J
Argh. If you doubt macey is scum, why vote for him? To teach him a lesson? That sort of vote loses games, and is a common tactic for scum to take to vote for town without taking responsibility for it.
[/QUOTE]

(snipped)

JS has voted for macey by this stage. But this looks like a way to get votes off him to me. As it happens he hadn’t read the Day carefully enough as Thing Fish never voted for macey.

@JSexton

Hi folks. The flu took me out since Christmas eve. I’ve been sorta following along, but not with my best brain engaged. I need to start a fresh read from towards the end of day one, but at a glance, finding two scum early is gold. Not just because hitting scum is good, but because it gives us more solid info to work with on re-read. I’d strongly suggest that everyone take the time to go back over posts that interact with macey and bufftabby…and those that notably fail to interact when they should.

Sounds nice and townie doesn’t it? Yes, getting rid of two scum helps us in terms of numbers but in terms of information? Well no it doesn’t at all. Those two died before they had a chance to implicate or interact with anyone. In fact macey’s death was more a net benefit to the scum IMO as his posting style would be a definite liability in a game this analytical.

@JSexton

Strawman. I expect scum to try and blend in and act townie. If that means posting an legit attack on their own, then yeah, that’s the right play. Macey made a series of terrible posts. Good town play is to attack them, therefore good scum play is to attack them.

Hawkeye, I have problems with a lot of your posts. Some are big on general theory, but not directly related to the game. Those that do relate to the game, I feel, are pushing us in the wrong direction. Difference in playstyle again? Maybe. But I have to call it like I see it, and I don’t see you acting in our interest. vote hawkeyeop

(snipped)

“Good scum play is to attack them”. I agree and I think that’s exactly what you did with macey. And as I’ve already said, if peeker hadn’t outed himself I think you’d have convinced us to lynch hawk that Day - you certainly convinced me.

@JSexton

I just deleted a long reply to you, Hawkeye. I think, again, that we’re coming down to a difference in playstyle. I tend to think my way has more merit (but doesn’t everyone?) because you get to analyze as you go instead of waiting for solid results, but hey, it helps to have people looking at the same elephant from different angles.

unvote hawkeyeop. This isn’t to say that I consider you town all of a sudden, but the main reason I was after you was because I felt your motivation for your actions was scummy. I can see a townie motive now, and that’s enough.

Maybe outside the game we debate theory some more, hey?

You used the same reasons for unvoting Pleo too. It’s a good excuse to use when unvoting if someone else is about to be lynched and makes sure your vote isn’t left on a town player.

@JSexton

Wait, did someone suggest playing mafia? Huh. Didn’t know that still happened.

K, I just caught up with the last 36 hours of posting. Pedescribe, Total Lost, Hawkeyeop…you guys have got to be kidding me. You seriously want to lynch Cookies over a typo in her role PM? Really?

Kudos to amrussell and Natlaw for actually analyzing Cookies posts. There’s some meat there, but I’m generally reading Cookies as consistent with her pro-town play. Given that storyteller actually wrote “total lost” in vote counts, I’m amazed that this is still even on the table.

I’d really like to think that scum were behind the Cookies push, but given that it was largely created by dead town and a mason, not so much. The one person I’m wondering about is Total Lost herself. The way I see it, Cookies tidbit of info isn’t conclusive, in that we don’t know that the scum are comprised solely of deadites. No reason there couldn’t be a traitorous human or werewolf or what have you amongst the scum. We also seem to still have another PFK floating around, and after seeing the Predator, well, it could be Freddy Krueger for all we know.

So here’s what I’m thinking. After seeing Cookies PM, Total Lost thinks “Hey, if Cookies shows up dead, then I’m confirmed non-deadite, which basically = town!”, which is a pretty good position for a PFK or mafioso to be in. I’d like to do a little review of Total Lost and see what might turn up.

(bolding mine)

This smacks of PIS. Yes, you implicate Total as Freddy Krueger rather than BLAM but the seed is sown. I think you know very well there’s a Freddy Krueger PFK about and you’re preparing the groundwork for it.

@JSexton

Man, does no one else smell mafia investigator there? I’m willing to beleive that BLam didn’t know his target would get a PM as well, or he wouldn’t have claimed it. But, wow, hideeously evil? How do we just let that go?

vote Blaster Master

(snipped)

Again with the PIS. Of course you’d have all the information you needed from the mafia investigator MHaye.

@JSexton

Yeah, I’m a lot less worried about Total Lost now that we’ve accounted for both the SKs. Still could be some sort of nondeadite Deadite, but that’s a much smaller chance in my mind.

However, we still have to evaluate behavior, and the way she disappeared when heeat moved off her is a little worrisome.

You’re not letting that one go are you? This sounds so reasonable but it’s subtly smudging TL. You say you’re not especially worried about her but still, she could be scum, oh, and it’s weird she disappeared.

@JSexton

How do you figure that? I don’t think claiming SK is ever a good way to avoid a lynch. When it comes right down to it, his WC isn’t ours, and there’s no way we could trust him for long. If we’re going to have to lynch him eventually (despite him not technically being a deadite, I think we’d need to) then I’d rather do it now and prevent him from messing with us.

Are you saying that you’d have been okay with him claiming “Freddy Krueger, SK, but totally with you guys!”?

Personally I disagree with this statement but I know some confirmed town agree so a null tell.

@JSexton

This illustrates the main problem I have with MHaye. Most of his time is spent apologizing for not being here and promising more content. This can be a giant scum tell for a lot of people, especially those who are often known as analysts. But, and this is a big but, I gather from several comments that this is in line with normal MHaye posting. Which makes is convenient, but a null tell.
Though a scum MHaye has little reason to be cautious, yeah? Either he gets on a popular bandwagon on a power role, or he helps lynch a PFK. Neither of those are bad for scum MHaye, really.
It’s not a case that compels me to immediately vote. However, I have virtually no notes on MHaye, which is worrisome. He’s been lurking in plain sight, and even if that’s just how he plays, I’d like to see that change. I’ve got a better target today, I feel, but I’m not interested in seeing MHaye skate to endgame. I want to see him pick it up and get less wishy-washy. Note that doing so doesn’t make him town; it gives us what we need make a proper judgement.

I don’t FOS in general, but if I did that’s where it would be.

The wording of this strikes me. You word your response as a general agreement of townie pede yet you manage to explain away enough of MHaye’s actions to make him seem a less viable target.

You also say you have a better target today but never go on to say more. Who was that target because your vote at the end of the Day doesn’t indicate you had one:

@JSexton

MHaye is off the table for me for today, until we can test him out and comb through his claim properly.
I still read brewha as town, as outlined before.
amrussell is my first choice for lynch, but no one is feeling that.

So, I have to vote Hal. I’m not wholly convinced, but of those with a shot to be lynched, I think he’s the best choice.

Doesn’t sound as though Hal was your original target so who was? I think you simply wanted MHaye to get an extra investigation in and made sure that happened.

@JSexton

No, just toNight. I’ve been fleshing out the timeline of the game, trying to see if MHaye’s claimed actions makes sense to me, magic bag or no.

So far, not so much. My instincts as doc are to play conservatively, and protect the best target, instead of trying to get cute and outthink an unknown group of players. I realize that my way is not always someone else’s way, but I’m having a hard time reconciling not protecting NAF.

So his investigation’s complete now and you can go after him. It’s a bit of a U-turn. It’s also convenient our doc didn’t protect NAF.

@JSexton

So you are basically a super-doc. I mean, yeah, you have limited charges, in theory. In practice, though, it’s about 50/50 whether a doc in any given game actually has a successful protection. Two is very rare. More than two is almost unheard of. So the first ability is more or less a full doc.

Add to that the automatic self-protection, and that’s a very, very powerful role. Those two components are worth 6 points. The second shell is just gravy, although let’s note that it the self-protection makes it more likely to come into play. Call it 6.5 points on my scale.

So there’s two conclusions I can draw here. The first is that I would not expect there to be a normal doc plus your role in this game. Too much protection. We think pedescribe was protected n1 from Blam, but we only have his word on that, and I don’t know how much credence I really give that. There’s other possibilities, like the masons have a collective one-shot immunity, or Blaster was roleblocked, or something. On the flip side, if you’re lying, then we most probably HAVE a full doc role in the game. I’m not really looking for a doc to counter claim here, but if one did, that would seal the deal that one of you would be lying. The fact that you have not been counterclaimed lends some credence to you being truthful, though, simply because I’d kind of expect a true doc to have already countered.

Conclusion #2: In the absence of a counter claim, we can test you pretty easily. Since you auto-protect, it’s simple enough to have a vig take a shot at you. This has the bonus that in the event of you being truthful, you get powered up to the second shell. Of course, this assumes that we have a vig. If a vig claims today, great. They shoot at you tonight, and we find out in the morning if you’re dead, or being at least somewhat truthful. This should work even if the mafia try to take out the vig, assuming that everything gets processed more or less simultaneously. And, of course, MHaye can protect the vig as well as himself, making it a very dicey proposition to try and interfere. Or a vig could choose to remain silent today, and decide on their own whether to test MHaye tonight. With the scum roleblocker dead, I don’t know what they’d have left to mess with the plan, but sometimes better safe than sorry.

Short version: I have doubts about MHaye’s veracity, but we’ve got at least two ways to find out without lynching him. And if he’s on our side, then it’s an insanely good weapon for us.

But what’s the harm in putting forward an argument for keeping him an extra Day? Also this fishing for information seems scummy. There might be a roleblocker, the masons may have a one shot immunity, you’re not asking for a doc to counterclaim but if they did it’d be just peachy. You finish up saying you’re not sure if MHaye’s being truthful but we could always wait an extra Day to find out - covering yourself from both angles.

@JSexton

Very nice. Happy with the result, not happy about being fooled.
Didn’t see a reason to claim, as it appeared MHaye was doomed. As for voting, I’m at a loss. I didn’t like any of the leading bandwagons, and I’ve convinced myself that my main suspect is town.

But you didn’t mind voting for Hal the previous Day.