Mafia - Game in progress [Edited title]

I’ll let him tell it - my version will be far less interesting than his, I’m sure.

As a TOWN Cop, Fubbs lies and tells the game that a scum player was town.

One can understand why he might not want that information public. A Town power role lying and passing a scum player as town.

The motivation and wine flows freely on this one.

The only thing I know for certain, is that I am very mixed learning that Fubbs intended to sabotage my game.

I mean, I take a lot, but deliberate sabotage against a mod, on their first game even, is a very low blow.
I have ideas for other games, but if you guys could care less about [del]me[/del] them, then I don’t see the motivation to ever [del]play[/del] host a game ever again.

Ohohoh I have some vague memory of all of this. I was sitting in the spoiled dead lounge and we all thought that Meeko had given investigator fubbs bad information when fubbs boldly announced his investigation of the previous night yielded a townie. I sent a pm to Meeko saying wtf it looks like you messed up. But it was actually some gambit by fubbs that didn’t make a lick of sense to me at the time. He was somehow trying to catch a second scum by failing to expose the first. I think fubbs explained later that he was hoping the other scum would say wtf because he knew the investigative results were false. As I recall that didn’t happen and it all turned out to be a really bad, failed gambit by fubbs. But Meeko, I am positive that fubbs was not intending to sabotage your game, that was just the unfortunate consequence.

I think according to the Pizza recipe we are now supposed to be discussing the nominees. Looking at MHaye’s very helpful vote totals, the leading 5 are Chacura, Pizza, Babale, Bravo, and Ortho.

I am very happy with my vote on Chacura. He voted Ortho based on his admittedly random pancakes, and then refused to unvote Ortho based on a lack of defense. I have no idea how he expected Ortho to defend himself against pancakes.

I am a little less happy with my vote on Pizza. I voted him also for his pile on vote on Ortho. I don’t really like the votes on Pizza based on the Pizza Plan, something he suggested in another game, long before his alignment in this game was known.

I am disinclined to vote for the noobs Bravo and Ortho Today, particularly as the votes for them seem to be mostly because they are noobs.

And Babale, I’d have to look at more closely if the vote came down to her and someone else.

I can cite you games where the sole mafioso (SK) was lynched day one.
I can cite you games where a mafioso was lynched day one with two votes.

It’s not really slips that you’re looking for. Rare is the case someone plays that badly. What you’re looking to do is what you do every Day of the game- [del]try to take over the world.[/del] Try to catch mafia.

That doesn’t usually tell us as much as when a scum dies. We go over their words knowing that they have a strong possibility of including lies, lies which if known to be lies, give a strong indication as to what the truth might actually be.

This is a bad argument. So long as town outnumbers the scums (meaning, there is still a game to be played) town has a better than average chance of hitting town, if they voted randomly.

There is no point in the game when town does not have a better than average chance of hitting town. Waiting until there’s a time when a scum lynch is likely is waiting until the game is over.

Waiting until tomorrow to begin lynching is the same thing as beginning the game with (at least) two less townies, but the same amount of scums.

The game is balanced for this number of townies. If we want to wait until the scums clear out half of us then we’re in for a bumpy ride to say the least.

Town usually does not win games where every single lynch must be correct, that is, a lynch or lose situation starting day one. Such games are not very well balanced. The chance for mislynches to happen and for town to still win are all we have.

We need to take shots in the dark at the scum. If we do not begin that process now, then townies will die anyway, and we will be absolutely no closer to finding the scums.

Even voting data on townies is useful, because eventually, some scumbag will have voted in such a way to either bus a teammate, save a teammate, or intentionally avoid looking like they’re doing one or the other.

Even on rounds we don’t lynch scum, the content of the round is important. If we do not generate content and we don’t vote, scums win automatically.

We have no more information day two except potentially some detective results. We also have the likelihood of a dead town detective by then.

Waiting for town power roles to save is is the worst plan ever devised in these games, and I’ve personally shattered dozens of towns who tried. It makes it so very easy, because then you don’t have a town of 20 or so players, you have a town or maybe two or three and you just need to murder those guys and you’ve won.
And such sentiments about being so reluctant to take a shot at the scum and lynch a townie make the hairs in my nose stand up and do the funky chicken dance.

I’d like to put in a late nomination for RyJae.

This one is certainly worth some additional attention.

Vote: RyJae

I have come across many scumbags whose (rather questionable) strategy has been to act like they really, and truly, care about the lives of the people we might mislynch along the way to victory. They stick out like a sore thumb and their arguments are very poor. Almost makes voting for them unsporting.

And now for my rankings on my Who-I-Wanna-Kill-O-Meter…

This is Chucara’s first real post of the game after PMs got sent and rec’d.

This seems to be kind of a “stating the obvious” post, which scum are wont to do.

No firm lean but certainly possible to be scum.

Seems to be “scum pretending to be a lost townie” post.

Doesn’t know how to begin suggesting people for death, but has played mafia before.

Slight scum lean on this post.

Will give plan a try, likes to vote to get a reaction, doesn’t know who to nominate.

+1 Acting cooperatively, a diplomatic position to take
+1 says voting is a good idea, another statement of the obvious
+1 another post with no vote, contradicting the virtues of voting

There are too many things pinging me about this post not to say it’s giving me a scum lean.

No lean.

If the man was less hesitant to vote, I’d have a town lean on this post. It’s otherwise normal and healthy town behavior. He’s acting like he’s afraid to break a Fabergé egg.

[SIZE=2]I do like the vote on orthohedro[SIZE=2]n. So[SIZE=2] I have no specific lean here.

[/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE]

I still got a pretty strong whiff of townie from this post. It makes up for a lot of the early questionable.

It reads as strong and genuine emotion and rather than playing more cautiously or getting defensive, his reaction seems to be to attack.

I like it. Gives me something to analyze.

For this post, and perhaps this post alone, I’d be willing to leave Chucara be today.

He’s got a point.

Strikes me as sound.

Play so far reads as not just statistically likely to be vanilla townie, but also likely to be vanilla townie based on content.

I don’t see town power role here, so he’s a safer lynch than others. But still, in all likelihood, a wrong lynch.
TL;DR:

I see snippets of odd behavior at first. Or overly cautious. But he’s redeemed himself as much as I can tell with my lie detector sensors.

I cannot smell any specific lies or misdirections and his voting has been perfectly reasonable to me. If you look hard you can see potentially overcautious or too-obvious commentary. But that can happen to townies as well so it’s not a strong indicator either way.

I see no reliable indicators that he’s scum, and will not support the Chucara lynch.

Okay, looking back the nominees are: (with my votes in bold)

Chucara (5)
ATPG (4)
Babale (3) **Johnny **(3) **Ortho **(3) **RyJae **(3)
Cookies (2) Fubble (2) **Skeezix **(2)
Choie, Diggit, Ender, Guiri, Mahaloth, Pleo, Stanislaus, USCDiver, Val Salva, Wombat


After a thorough analysis of the leader, I will not support the **Chucara **lynch at this time. I have a town lean on him.

**Askthepizzaguy **is townie. I will not vote to spare myself this game due to being vanilla townie, the alternative might be a town power role. So my role is no more useful than any other, and as such, it’s not wise to vote for someone just to save me. Not worth saving.

This means both of the lynch leaders are safe lynches, but unproductive ones.

Getting to my nominations,

Orthohedron- currently number one on my potentially scum list. Not that it means all that much on D1. I am willing to lynch Orthohedron.
RyJae- For the reasons stated in a previous post, I’d be willing to lynch RyJae.

I had no actual reason to vote Red Skeezix (other than it’s day one I gotta vote for someone) but if you wanted to lynch him today I would keep my vote there, since I nominated him to die. I will say I’ve put zero thought into it and as such, wouldn’t feel particularly enthusiastic about it. But I’d be pleasantly surprised if he flipped scum. I’m not scum and if I were, he’s not my scum partner, feel free to test that at your convenience.

I voted for Johnny Bravo largely to get some answers and to focus attention on his behavior.

I feel I’ve accomplished that and have a tough time reading newbies. (Hi choie)

As such, of my nominees, I’d be least inclined to lynch Johnny Bravo. But as with all my nominees, I will not unvote him without good cause.

I don’t want to lynch Cookies, choie, or Val Salva. I have a good handle (I think) on their personalities and none are screaming scum at me.

I have no opinion on the others and no data, and although I’d prefer to lynch one of my own nominees, I have no real objection to any of the others swinging.

You’d have to convince me of their scummy behavior (quote it for me) to earn my vote on them.

TL;DR

I recommend lynching someone with either 2 or 3 votes on them presently, except Cookies. I do not recommend a lynch on the leader or runner-up.

  1. Orthohedron
  2. RyJae
  3. Red Skeezix
  4. Fubbleskag
  5. Babale
  6. Johnny Bravo

    Next to last: Cookies, choie, Val Salva, Chucara
    Dead last: Askthepizzaguy

I also note that it is statistically likely that someone with 1 vote on them is guilty.

If I have time, I’ll dig into analyzing that. But that’s gonna take a long time and I’m on a 4 day vacation with my girl, so there are such things as higher priorities than analyzing those unlikely to be lynched, esp on D1.

Go for it ATPG I am vanilla town, as I tried to make clear. I realllllly don’t like how you’re trying to guide this hunt though. So for my vote on scum chance not lurker it will have to be you.

vote askthepizzaguy
Other than that, if I do not survive the Day I can only hope the town doesn’t allow any verbose people to guide the rest of town. If I do survive the Day then toMorrow I and others will have more information to go on to make a more informed choice.

Note: We’re now digging into time for phases three and four, so…

The leaders have already revealed their claim. There are no detective results or other information, and I wouldn’t recommend any power role reveal this early except in the case of being lynched. As such, this phase is basically complete, but if the lynch moves onto other candidates then they should be given a chance to defend themselves.

I recommend spending a day deciding which candidate to wagon, one last day to claim/defend, and finally wagon our chosen candidate on the final day remaining.

Due to it being Day One, some of the process is redundant here. I wouldn’t stick too closely to the framework except to say that it would be unwise for folks to claim a town power unless they’re definitely about to swing. No need for additional freebie info.

Oh well. No skin off my scrot.

Why mixed? I don’t know the details, but it sounds entirely rude.

It’s couldn’t care less.

Ah, I was posting while I read. Perhaps fubble was not entirely rude if he did not intentionally sabotage your game, Meeko. Either way, it tells us nothing about this game.

Meeko, current lack of understanding you in this game aside, I’m confident that I’m not alone in liking you and caring about you and supporting you in your creative gaming endeavors.

My thoughts on every single one of our serious lynch candidates, plus some other folks. In the interest of space and time, this is just about exactly how my notes look. I’m not going to worry about hunting down quotes or explaining each individual note too terribly much, since it’s just Day 1 hunches and gut feels. Questions? Ask away.


Chucara
-don’t like LightFoot’s vote on Chucara
-totes cool with TexCat’s vote for Chucara for his vote on Ortho
-agree with mahaloth’s vote for Chucara’s “pancakes” vote
-agree with Silver Jan’s vote for “pancakes” vote
-okay with Babale’s vote on Chucara, though it feels “over-explained”, if that’s a thing

Chucara votes for Babale because Babale placed a “lazy” vote on Chucara. Babale voted for Chucara because Chucara placed a meaningless (lazy?) vote on Ortho. Hilarity (for me) ensues. Defense continues…

Too strong a defense of an admittedly useless vote. Scum absolutely do not always make perfect, carefully considered cases. In fact, one of the best ways for scum to hide is to act in ways that make players say “scum wouldn’t do that.” So Chucara has an incredibly weak vote that he absolutely refuses to take ownership of, defends overly-strongly, and attacks people for questioning it.
-fine with Ortho’s vote for Chucara in 434

Feeling: Strong lean scum on Chucara.
Vote Chucara.


Askthepizzaguy
-His vote on Red is meaningless, yet his own plan involves staying on your phase 1 votes (post 215)

This bothers me, because again, the vote on Red Skeezix started out as a completely meaningless vote, yet Pizza will absolutely stay true to it in a tie. That’s a way of ducking responsibility for the vote. “Hey, he was my nomination. Had to see it through.”
-I’m not feeling Choie’s vote on Pizza in 312 for forgetting her on a list
-agree with TexCat’s vote for piling on ortho
-agree with Silver Jan’s vote for poorly-justified vote
-full agreement with Babale’s vote for Pizza in 367

Feeling: Moderate scum lean on Pizza.
Vote Askthepizzaguy.


Babale
-not feeling a Babale lynch, his stalker stuff rings townie
-disagree with gnarly’s vote for Babale in 373, but gnarly feels town to me
-response to Chucara feels townie to me, 424

Feeling: slight town lean.


Johnny Bravo
-I choose not to vote newbies on Day 1, first of all
-some of the cases are somewhat sound, but can be explained by newbieness.

Feeling: Pretty neutral. Not willing to vote for a Bravo lynch.


Orthohedron
-I choose not to vote newbies
-Chucara’s vote for Ortho is meaningless
-Pizza’s vote for Ortho is a gut feel and poorly explained in 328, so I don’t agreee

Feeling: neutral on Orthohedron, not willing to vote to lynch today.


Cookies
-post 266 feels very townie to me
-townie feel for her votes on Stanislaus, RyJae, Wombat for questioning Babale
-okay with stanislaus’ vote on Cookies in 352
-not understanding Meeko’s vote in 472

Feeling: slight town lean


Fubbleskag
-no gut feel at all. Nothing stood out to me. Hmmm…

Feeling: slightest of scum leans for lack of gut feel. Not worth voting for.


Red Skeezix
-not willing lynch over strategy disagreement re: multivotes
-though to be fair, I understand why others are voting for him

Feeling: neutral.


RyJae

  • agree with Guiri, I’d lynch for this post
    -leaning slight scum for 466, lots of explanation for why he’s casting a vote that doesn’t affect anyone in the running at all
    -I understand and like pizza’s vote for RyJae in 505

Feeling: slight scum
Vote RyJae.


LightFoot

This is exactly why I voted LightFoot. She objected, but uses the same reasoning on someone else?

Feeling: neutral, but keeping an eye on LightFoot.


Story can’t keep his (heh) story straight. He’s clearly hiding something. Lynch Storyteller?

I should also note, I no longer wish to lynch USCDiver.

Unvote USCDiver.

I should note that sticking with my vote is the exact opposite of ducking responsibility for it.

If you want to lynch a townie, at least get your facts straight. That way you can lose with competence.

That is exactly my point. It’s a meaningless vote that you don’t sincerely think is likely to net scum. You call it reasonless in your own vote. Why are you so proud to be sticking with and “taking responsibility” for this vote?

** Astral ** it might be the beer I had with lunch but I’m not tracking what you are saying about me?

Vote Count as at post 518.

Seven votes[ul][li]Chucara : LightFoot (300), Texcat (334), Mahaloth (337), Silver Jan (351), fubbleskag (361), [del]Babale (+367) (-453)[/del], Orthohedron (434), Astral Rejection (514)[/ul][/li]
Six votes[ul][li]ATPG : Choie (312), Texcat (334), Silver Jan (351), [del]Babale (+367), (-426)[/del], Johnny Bravo (392), [del]Meeko (+436), (-472)[/del], RyJae (508), Astral Rejection (514)[/ul][/li]
Four votes[ul][li]RyJae : guiri (220), [del]Mahaloth (231), (337)[/del], DarkCookies (301 ), ATPG (505), Astral Rejection (514)[/ul][/li]
Three votes[ul][li]Babale : Stanislaus (236), Suburban Plankton (369), Gnarlycharlie (373), [del]Chucara (+422), (-427)[/del][/li][li]Johnny Bravo : USCDiver (289), ATPG (389), Mahaloth (407)[/li][li]Orthohedron : DiggitCamara (244), Chucara (327), ATPG (328)[/ul][/li]
Two votes[ul][li]Dark Cookies : Stanislaus (352), Meeko (472)[/li][li]fubbleskag : Dizzymrslizzy (439), Meeko (493)[/li][li]Red Skeezix : ATPG (215), Enderw24 (233)[/li][/ul]

One vote[ul][li]Choie : guiri (220)[/li][li]DiggitCamara : Texcat (334)[/li][li]Enderw24 : Red Skeezix (345)[/li][li]guiri : Choie (332), [del]fubbleskag (+361), (-445)[/del][/li][li]Mahaloth : Wombat99 (238)[/li][li]Pleonast : Johnny Bravo (225), [del]Meeko (+436), (-472)[/del][/li][li]Stanislaus : DarkCookies (301)[/li][li]Val Salva : RyJae (466)[/li][li]Wombat99 : [del]Orthohedron (+284), (-434)[/del], DarkCookies (301)[/ul][/li]
Zero votes[ul][li]LightFoot : [del]Astral Rejection (+229), (-252)[/del][/li][li]USCDiver : [del]Astral Rejection (+229) (-515)[/del], [del]fubbleskag (+361), (-445)[/del][/ul][/li]This comes with the usual caveats re compiler’s error. If you see any errors or omissions, just point them out and they will be corrected.

I know that this is extremely unlikely since we all have multiple votes, but what happens in the event of a tie at the end of the day?

edit: Never mind - found it in the rules. No lynch.