I have some spread sheet like calc on the item votes if anyone is interested ( keeping track for my own info)
. don’t want to muck up the thread with information if I’m to be called out for it though.
[spoiler] emerald
ring
Visorslash by fubbleskag
Suburban by self
LightFoot by self
choi by septimus
ToeJam by self
choie by self
pendant
BobArrgh by self
Suburban by self
LightFoot by self
gnarlie charlie by septimus
gnarlie charlie by self
BobArrgh by ToeJam
sapphire
ring
fubbleskag by Visorslash
fubbleskag by Astral
Suburban by self
LightFoot by self
LightFoot by septimus
BobArrgh by ToeJam
Visorslash voted self “all items” probably not a valid
PetW voted self for “Ring” probably not a valid
Oh I knew that, heh, sorry if I was unclear. I just wondered why there’s so much apparent energy spent on Guiri.
I don’t get it. Am I bugging you for bringing up the behavior, or bugging you for discounting it? What am I supposed to do, claim that I know everything about [g]Guiri**'s posting style after playing with him a grand total of one time before this?
As far as bringing up the behavior… well, if someone constantly behaves in a certain way throughout a variety of games, a pattern can be deduced. If said person deviates from said pattern, there may (but not always) be some value in figuring out why.
If there’s no value in this sort of deduction, fine. I’m just taking my cue from others, who are more experienced in these things.
Jesus. I wouldn’t eat those Cheerios if I were you, son. Someone’s clearly pissed in 'em.
as explained by others, story is stuck in the middle of nowhere (actually NC) with only his mobile to get online.
mahaloth is on a trip to another continent. it’s a very personal thing but not in a bad way.
the rest… shrugs
up to now you still have a grasp on my playstyle? mostly gut and metagame. i’m a very slow starter. i’ve said that a number of times now in several games now, two of which you were in and i was town.
i’m talking a little more than usual mainly because people keep bitching (they keep killing me only to be embarrassed about it when i flip town) and i have more time now that classes have ended.
wasting votes? obviously the timing in D1 was much better.
Leaning town:
Normal Phase
choie
The person I’ve been communicating with who as far as I know would still prefer not to be outed
Weedy (but I have my eye on you)
***“So far I’ve threatened to neuter two of you, and now a third is volunteering for it. I think exterminating your species would be doing this dimension a favor.”
Astral Rejection hits you with a wall of words! It’s super effective!
A couple of things I want to talk about. This is the abridged version of my enormous post, because as it gets later, I’m finding it harder to keep my thoughts organized. I’ve got until monday, so I don’t feel too bad putting off some of what I want to talk about.
First off, some bookkeping, and facts I found interesting. I’ll use spoilers to try to keep the length down.
First votes only. This tracks the first vote of all voters. All un-numbered votes are prior to post 132 – I realized too late that it might be useful info, and it’s late now and I don’t feel like going back. For my purposes, “pre-132” is good enough for me.
***- Vote not bolded, therefore not legal[/spoiler]
People whose first vote was also their final vote. Final is used here to mean their vote was on their original target at Dusk. In a few cases, voters may have had a different intervening vote, but ultimately settled back on their first target.
Something I really like to do, and I find it helps me organize my thoughts, is look at the vote data in new ways. Before I collected all the data, I assumed only a few people would maintain their vote the entire day; I expected a more fluid voting scheme. Instead, we had 14 voters who maintained their original vote. I need to break this down a little further. Day 1 ended after post 368, so any votes before post 184 would be in the first half of the day (more correctly, the first half of the conversation, since posts don’t directly correspond to time. For my purposes, let’s call that half). So, that being said, let’s look at:
People who kept their votes from the first half of the Day until the end of Day.
GuiriEnEspana
Gadarene
Normal Phase
Lightfoot
NAF1138
ToeJam
Silver Jan
Mosier
Get ready for a weird sentence: I believe that final list has a higher-than-average chance of containing a higher-than-average proportion of scum. There are 8 names on that list (7, really, since we should discount Mosier), and the 1/4th rule would suggest it contains 2 scum. I’m guessing there are 3 (or more?) on that list.
My reasoning: voting is hard for scum. Building cases, staying out of the spotlight, keeping off the radar, all while staying involved in the game, is a challenging tightrope scum have to walk. Some will choose to lurk, but I’ve never seen an entire team lurk. Early votes, especially on Day 1, are easily dismissable. As the conversation continues, newer, better cases will organically emerge from the talk. Town will typically shift their voting as their opinions change; scum, their “participation” assured with a vote, generally don’t want to put themselves back into danger by moving, and having to justify, another vote.
Of course, there are flaws in this theory. We have an exceptionally large group of lurkers in this game, and with so few posts, it’s almost impossible to assess their scumminess. Any number of them could potentially be scum, skewing the rest of the group (and these figures).
Another interesting quirk of the voting pattern becomes obvious when we view these early, potentially scummy votes: possible partners. All of our early voters voted in pairs.
Guiri & Gad voted for Astral
Normal Phase & Lightfoot for Mosier
NAF & ToeJam for Gadarene
Silver Jan & Mosier for Visorslash
Mosier, again, is innocent, so I’d recommend discounting that pair. Guiri & Gad were perhaps too obviously in lockstep (Gad’s first reason for voting for Astral: “I agree with Guiri.”), so I personally am going to discard that one, too, on the basis of “I doubt scum would so obviously collude on Day 1.” Your mileage may vary. We don’t currently have enough information to assess the other two pairings, but it’s something we should definitely revisit when one of the pair dies and we learn their alignment.
However, there is another way to interpret all of this data. We have three deaths, all of which appear to be town (I noticed on a quick readthrough that there was some confusion about the “good” reveal, but I’m assuming it means town for now). We know from these reveals that all of glee’s, mosier’s, and inner stickler’s suspicions were honestly felt, and we have to decide on a case-by-case basis how we feel about all of the questions, smudges, and votes they accrued while they were alive. Helpfully, I’ve made a list:
People what mentioned and voted for, and got voted by, the town what are dead.
[spoiler]Inner, 86: doesn’t see what Guiri and Gad are getting at re: voting for astral
Lightfoot, post 119: if Mosier makes a case on Visor, lightfoot will “look less sharply towards you.”
Mosier voted for Visorslash
Suburban, post 133: accuses Mosier of snuggling
Inner, post 135: doesn’t get any of the votes for Visor
Normal, post 141: has some suspicions of Mosier
Inner Stickler, post 197: suspects Astral and Gad, votes Gad
Inner Stickler, post 279: further suspicions of Astral for the “vote-shenanigans-prevention-action” (My term for it)
Suburban Plankton, post 308: votes Mosier for snuggling. Also posits potential scumminess of glee.
gnarlycharlie, post 311: looking at mosier, pinged him earlier.
gnarlycharlie, post 313: votes for Mosier, but found Septimus scummier. Mosier has a “slightly better chanbce of being lynched.”
Suburban Plankton, post 314: questions glee
Normal Phase, post 323: “glee, you are not contributing either”
Normal Phase, post 347: on mosier, calls out for self-consciousness, not addressing arguments, weak vote for visor, maybe in over his head
Odds are great I’ve missed some stuff, but this is a start. Clearly, some names keep popping up. This is the part of my analysis that is going to have to wait for later, because I need to re-read everything yet again to see how much weight I’d give each bit, to cross-reference against my vote charts, and to do a check to see what I’ve missed.
Enough voting stuff. While I was re-reading, a couple of posts jumped out at me.
Hard game is hard, right? I’ve never liked posts like this, because it’s fluff disguised as pro-town helpful banter. We all know that no one has any past behavior to go on. We know it’s tough. And the part about finding “the quick judgment to vote a bit disturbing” is ludicrous. Somebody has to be the first vote, and for some reason. If you have an issue with the Astral Rejection votes, or the Visorslash votes, or what have you, lay them out. The irony of this isn’t lost on me; GuiriEnEspana called me out for my first post, saying it felt too self-conscious, and now I’m saying pretty much the same thing about realitytrip. I think it’s fundamentally different, though… my post was early on, and it was meant as a joke (YMMV). This is right in the middle of several large discussions, with nothing but a smudge on all of the voters so far.
It’s a late vote for nebulous reasons. There have been any number of explanations given on why Gadarene was suspicious to people. Regardless of the quality of those reasons, I feel like lilflower (if she was making an honest vote) would have mentioned some of those reasons. This is also the very last vote of the Day, finally pushing Gadarene into a clear lynch leader (Choie had tied Astral Rejection and Gadarene earlier). This part honestly doesn’t look that great for me; if Gadarene and I are both town, scum lilflower has no reason to pick one over the other. If I’m scum, scum lilflower’s motive is more clear. However, the vote itself wasn’t necessary; I believe Gadarene would have been lynched regardless. Why pick Gadarene over me if lilflower is scum? It makes no sense if Gad is town, but if Gad and lilflower are both scum, and Gad is already the lynch target, lilflower could be hoping for town credit for “sealing the deal.”
I think my writing is starting to get unclear, so I hope that made sense. I need to sleep on it and re-read their posts to decide which option I think is more likely. The vote itself doesn’t sit right with me, though, so I wanted to make sure to point that out.
Let’s end on a joke.
I can’t believe I missed this before. NAF! We’ve played together before, man! I had no idea I was so forgettable!
OK, I think I misunderstood what you, fubbleskag and Visor are doing.
Normal sounding Townie as all get out to me.
Happy with choie, haven’t thought about Lightfoot much, have some concern about gnarlycharlie. How bout Normal Phase instead?
vote: emerald ring to choie
vote: blue pendant to Normal Phase
Hate this. Vote on a wagon for a really thin reason. I don’t like the PIS accusation, it seems like an excuse.
If this is PetW’s second game, then I bet he is Town here.
I know that Tanaer is flat out IRL right now. Also, I want a chnce to try to read her
I think finding other Townies is important in this gme so that Town can work together to distribute items, and coordinate attacks.
Normal had a read and it matches my limited experience. If we are going to be vigging lurkers, it makes sense to vig the player who is known to lurk as Scum, rather than someone who lacks internet access this week.
I’m almost positive. All of that “analysis” and you didn’t even mention MHaye? The guy you currently have a vote on? The best you can come up with is:
lilflower: Easy, easy easy target, even if she does ever turn up scum.
realitytrip: Same “crime” as you got picked up on, which is fine, but you spend more time explaining why you’re not being hypocritical than you do why he is scummy. This is the same issue as with MHaye – what exactly is your audience here and what are you trying to convince them of? That realitytrip is scummy? Or that you’re being reasonable?
Nothing – not one word – about MHaye, the guy you voted for yesterday while the bandwagon was getting rolling on you, and who you were quick to vote for today on the strength of your previous vote but MY case, to which you have added not so much as a sentence …
Your theory about single votes – which I think IS broadly valid, by the way, but on day one the least so of any day, and at any rate: I bet you’ll find scum in this bunch of eight people, but I’m only going to rule a few out and no one in …? And you half-qualify even the conclusions you do draw to the point of uselessness.
The thing about dead townies and the same names coming up over and over – you mean Gadarene and Mosier, those names? The guys who EVERYONE was discussing on day one? What on earth could you possibly even be aiming at with this, Astral, unless it’s some backhanded smudge of Gadarene? There’s no reason for it otherwise. This is not scum-hunting, Astral. You’re better than this. At this point I think you and MHaye are both scum, and you bussed him on day one thinking you might as well because you could be on the way out anyway.
I may as well add at this point that PetW’s responses since my vote have me substantially less suspicious of him than I was at the time I placed it.
Monday? You sure about that? I thought Day ended on Sunday.
The shorter than usual Day, coupled with the holiday weekend dusk, and the fact that all those early votes were on the main lynch contenders right up to Day end, would explain some of lack of movement in votes.
A nitpick your choice of cut-off point, given that D1 only started in #53, half way through Day 1 would be #210, which also corresponds to the 36 hour mark. It doesn’t change much but it would include PetW’s vote on Visorslash and InnerStickler’s on Gadarene as two additional early voters who never moved their vote. You also missed Mahaloth’s early vote on Visorslash which never moved.
But your analysis reminded me I want to review ToeJam.
And he can’t even bring himself to actually SAY – all these dead guys kept talking about Gadarene, so Gadarene should be a suspect. And yet this is not something needs to be cross-referenced and deeply analyzed, if you actually believe what you’re saying. It’s right there. This cannot be for real.
And this?
This is so … something I can’t even name. You know, Astral, lilflower could have chosen Gadarene over you, if scum, just because it was an easy bandwagon to chuck a vote on and hey, one townie’s as good as another. But you can’t leave it at that. You have to worry at the logic that says a scum lilflower could have been trying to save you, like you’re picking at a scab. I just don’t see a townie Astral being all that concerned about it. Certainly not to the extent of spending an entire paragraph trying to make lilflower (and Gad) scum/Astral not scum consistent with everything else you’ve said and that has occurred in the game so far. You’re far too concerned with making sure you’ve crossed all your t’s and dotted all your i’s, to come across as honest. Generally, townies just get to the point already. They don’t notice if their underpants are hanging out, because they’re not going around worried people are looking at their hind ends. You know?
I like Normal’s case from before. With the triple vote available to Scum, I think we need strong wagons, not people voting each their own way.
I’m probably the only one who hasn’t found Visorslash that controversial. I was expecting much more from the sign-up thread, made me think he might be Scum gone quiet. No one else seems to find him quiet though.
I’m no longer suspicous of BobArrgh, given his explantion, and that glee flipped villager.
ToeJam has been posting a lot without saying much.
