Yes. I do know you were not requesting to be lynched. You were exaggerating to sound Townie and I called you on it.
That is an absurd percentage. I’m not 95% sure of anything in this, even when I’m being counterclaimed. (maybe I misread scum as patsy…)
This was from Day 9.
Johnny, you said that the Patsy “possibly should not claim”. Why did you say this?
At that point there were still unclaimed power roles who were more important than the patsy. There were also enough living scum that the patsy bomb had more potential use.
If you go a bit further down that thread, you’ll see post #38 where I look at multiple scenarios - some where the patsy claimed and some where the patsy didn’t.
Texcat responds and says there is “absolutely no reason” for any town power roles to claim, and I then laid out my case for why shrinking the unconfirmed pool was good for multiple reasons.
In post #43 I say this: “I’m good with the Patsy not claiming, but if the she (using your pronoun) does allow herself to be lynched, wouldn’t it be better for her to have a smaller pool to choose her retributive kill from?”
A bit further down the thread, Klutz claims. Now all that’s left is the Zoning Inspector and the patsy.
At this point, I start to really get into it with bufftabby and forget about the patsy for a while.
re-reading, re-reading
In post #148, Lightfoot does her weird half-claim. In her claim, she also says that the patsy should not claim because if the patsy DOES claim, they will immediately be scum killed to “diffuse the bomb.”
This is when I explicitly say, I believe for the first time, that the patsy should claim along with the zoning inspector. Prior to that I’d been advocating claiming in a more general sense. I’d already laid out my reasoning behind shrinking the scum pool, but Lightfoot’s claim created a double-blind situation that would have made confirming/counterclaiming more complicated than it should be. Because of the way she claimed, there was no way to actually consider her confirmed. Meanwhile, the “other” (who we now know to be hawkeye) was being stubbornly silent.
As time went on, I became more convinced that it was important for the patsy to claim sooner rather than later and my posts reflected that.
And here it goes. The case for not lynching **Johnny Bravo ** on Day 14 has already begun.
Please do not let him get away with it. I can handle my first mislynch. But I will start throwing things if he is not immediately lynched toMorrow. There will be such vitriol in the Forbidden thread. You won’t have to open it. You will feel it bleed out from that thread link onto your computer screens.
Shoot, my fault. I guess I… shouldn’t answer questions?
No go ahead. At this point I am more in awe than anything else.
Dear Town,
Please do not lynch raventhief. This is only her third or fourth game. She has never been Scum in any other game. She is smart, but I don’t think anyone so new could have reached this point in this game as first-time Scum and not made some slip. No one has had any sort of case against her. My odds of her as Scum: <1%
Please do not lynch Plumpudding. He is more experienced, but he has had plenty of opportunity to slip. Plumpudding has remained calm all game. I think a Scum Plumpudding would be much less disciplined. He was very active early in the game, not so much later. He got a few votes, but nothing stuck. Finally, he and **TexCat **have… a history. I can’t see them working together well enough for the Patsy scheme. Odds of him as final Mafia: 4%
**Johnny Bravo **: I am not going to rehash it all again. Just read everything I have posted the past few days. But good god, he friggin’ posted a letter to the Patsy in which he took an unnecessary aside to tell Lutha it was smart and indeed right to switch sides if the circumstances arose. This was right before the plot unfolded. Then he actively tried to push the mislynch through. He is experienced and smart enough for this WOW Scum game. Add to that a simple process of elimination. If the other two are not Scum, then he is. And he aggressively pushed through my mislynch yesterDay. Odds: >95%
Please do not let him go to endgame Day 15 under any circumstances.
Sincerely,
**Biotop **
Please someone copy and paste this at the start of Day 14. Thank you.
Biotop, you are putting up a very good defence. You have suggested that the “Dear Patsy” letter was actually a message to Koldanar, showing that, by redirecting the Patsy revenge kill, lutha could win with mafia. This is an interesting idea.
Any plan had a major unknown factor: when would the real Patsy claim? Note that, on Day 11 when it all went down, TexCat was looking very likely to be lynched, and indeed picked up a bunch of early votes. Nothing happened until Hawkeyop claimed, so that was the catalyst to put the plan into action.
The “Dear Patsy” letter was posted early on that Day. Koldanar was then aware of the possibility of swinging the game and winning with mafia.
TexCat was going to be that Day’s likely lynch, so the plan was, when the Patsy claimed, then TexCat could counter and hope for a mislynch. If she was not believed then another scum would also counter, to set up the showdown for the next Day. Texcat then issued her ultimatum to lutha. This was needed for 2 reasons: to remind Koldanar what to do, but also to let him know that this was NOT a mislynch, so do not use up your redirect ability toDay.
However, if the “Dear Patsy” letter was a message to Koldanar, why tell him again? Indeed, why issue an ultimatum? Why tell everyone else about the redirection plan, when you have already told the one person who needs to know? Clearly, to make sure he knew what to do. So the “Dear Patsy” message was never needed.
But, look at this from Koldanar’s point of view: did he understand the implications of the “Dear Patsy” letter? If so, what should he do to say that he understood? The letter could have been a genuine plea to the Patsy, but if it’s a subtle suggestion to Koldanar then Johnny must be scum. Koldanar doesn’t know for sure, but he does make an interesting post in #42
He says “Johnny, look, I agree with you!”
If Johnny actually was scum then this really looks like it would be interpreted as “Message received and understood”. So, if Johnny is scum then they now know that Koldanar is on board. TexCat can do a “Bah, go scum” to let him know not to use his redirect this time, and then they can surprise town the next Day. But no, they told him (and now everyone else) what to do. Again. After his acknowledgement.
So the idea that the “Dear Patsy” letter as a message to Koldanar does not work. The timing of the letter, at the start of Day 11, looks right, as with the end of the wolves there was now a danger of a lutha/mafia alliance. So I can’t see the “Dear Patsy” letter as other than what it said it was.
So, confirming my vote for Biotop.
(But if he flips town it is definitely Johnny Bravo toMorrow)
That’s all I ask. Thank you.
Actually, Captain Klutz, could I ask one more thing? Can you please try to convince everyone else to do exactly as you are doing? Vote me and commit to **Johnny Bravo ** for toMorrow. That way Town only loses if either **raventhief **or **Plumpudding **is the final Scum. Town wins if either **Johnny Bravo **or I is that Scum.
I think that plan is a 95% likely to be successful plan. You do not get much better odds than that in Mafia.
You are trusted Captain Klutz. They will not listen to me, but they will listen to you.
Every time I start getting niggles that maybe I’ve got the wrong guy, you go back to this and I feel better.
You just can’t get this kind of certainty in mafia when you’re VT. It’s not a thing.
No. You cannot get away with blaming me for my mislynch. No one will buy it.
×××××
Coming Soon from Johnny Bravo Productions to a Day 14 posting theater near you:
"See folks. I did have my doubts. But **Biotop **was so unreasonably insistent that he was 95% sure, what could I do? It was Biotop’s own fault he got mislynched, not mine. The case was good, like my case against **Inner Stickler **, like my case against Lightfoot, like my case against Hawkeyeyop. The cases were good. I can’t help it if the cases were wrong. I wasn’t wrong in making them.
But now I think …blah blah blah…another 300+ words accusing someone else."
Alas no intermission.
You know, if I’m being honest, it’s getting genuinely tiresome that you’re giving me so much shit for playing the game the way it’s meant to be played. At this point it feels like you’re just painting me as some kind of asshole because I won’t promise to forfeit the game if you do happen to be mislynched.
You’ll never see me claim to be certain about a lynch unless there’s verifiable certainty. You’ll never see me give up on trying to win the game for my team - whatever it is.
Please get over it.
Here, I’ll take a page from your book.
PROMISE: if it turns out Biotop is town, I will do everything in my power to convince town that I am not scum. I will go through all of Plumpudding and raventhief’s posts and build a case in the slim hope that I can avoid the lynch. These posts will probably be very long and they will be posted even if everybody votes for me within the first couple hours of the Day. I will be intolerable. The remaining players will beg the mods to implement a hammer rule. I will hack all of your accounts, turn on email notification messages for the thread, and change the notification settings on your phone to play an elevator muzak rendition of your least favorite song each time I post. I will not give up until the very end. This will happen regardless of my alignment, be it town, Mafia, undead wolf, or secret sixth cultist.
There. Happy? We both agree that I will be my full annoying and perhaps persuasive self in the event of another Day.
Anything else?
No. You win. After reading the above, for the first time In days I had, just for a moment, a niggling doubt.
Did I say you were good? That you can start to persuade me is mind-boggling. But that’s what you do as Scum. You persuade people.
Please no one buy this. He has to be the last Scum. No other option makes sense.
And Johnny Bravo, please do not put words in my mouth. I think you are a very good player who, amazingly enough, might still talk his way into a Scum team victory. That’s not accusing anyone of being an a##hole. If I am wrong and you are Town, then I still do not think you are any kind of a bad person. You are aggressive, but that is OK.
I just see this as way more likely to be a Scum tactic than a Town tactic. I know I am not Scum and it seems very very unlikely either of the other two are Scum. It has got to be you. Lots of game evidence backs it up. I will not be around to make the case toMorrow, so I am making the case now. That doesn’t make me a bad person either.
I’m not trying to put words into your mouth - I’m trying to make you understand how you’re making me feel right now. Look:
In other words, you’re a good person because you’re willing to end the game. Since I’m not willing to die tomorrow and end the game quickly in the event that you’re town, that either means I’m scum or I’m a bad person who is “jacking everyone around.”
Right now, you’re one of two things.
- You’re a scum Biotop who is playing the “frustrated townie” gambit in an attempt to get the vote switched.
- You’re a townie Biotop who is genuinely frustrated about the mislynch and you’re flailing a little.
It’s telling that I’ve started mulling about how I kind of hope you flip town, because then after I flip town I’ll at least be able to point at your 95% certainty and… what? I dunno. Gloat? That’s not me. But maybe I’ll give you one of these over in the forbidden thread.
But I don’t really. Most I hope you flip scum and I don’t even have to worry about it any more.
I hope you flip Scum too, because I was already embarrassingly wrong once in a Giraffe game, and I don’t want to have to swallow my pride again. But dammit, it has got to be you. And you played a brilliant game. The awe is real, not written for effect.
And if you say I quit or committed suicide, you did not understand what I posted. Or you willfully misrepresent it still.
The others may not know you are the last Scum. But at least in the end you did not fool me.
I suppose I don’t understand, no.
You said that if town voted for me and it turned out to be a mislynch, that you would accept a counter-lynch tomorrow, including voting for yourself to speed it along.
You have also said that there is “absolutely no reason” why town shouldn’t vote for me first and you second.
You have also pointed out that if town mislynches twice, cult will almost certainly flip to Mafia’s side on a Day 15 that begins 1-1-1.
Therefore, in this scenario (we are both town and I get lynched first) which YOU have proposed, you are handing the game to Mafia by not fighting against your own mislynch on Day 14.
How else am I supposed to interpret it? Especially since I refuse to accept that you ‘know’ I am scum. You don’t know that and you can’t know that.
Or to put it differently:
Assume a hypothetical situation where town only has two mislynches remaining.
There are two townies who fervently believe that the other is scum.
One of the two will be lynched today. The other will almost certainly be lynched the following day.
One promises to allow himself to be lynched if he is wrong. The other promises to fight to the end.
In a vacuum, as a third-party observer who knows that both hypothetical players are town, which is the better lynch? The one who is going to vote himself the next day, or the one who is going to fight and continue looking for scum?