Sorry for the long delays.
I had a whole post planned for the start of this Day, but last minute shenanigans behind the scenes scuttled it. The end result is, NOTHING as far as you all know this was just a stupid waste of time.
Day goes til Monday at 8pm. Maybe that way it ends closer to on time.
So aight. One nasty little scummer left.
Sweet!
Anyone else want to claim patsy?
Okay, things are a lot less urgent now. I need to look at my biotop case, scrub the bits that involve hawkeye collusion, and see what’s still there.
I’m concerned about these shenanigans though. I’m on my phone and won’t be able to check until morning, but I didn’t think there was anything left that could have caused something requiring mod conference. The patsy wasn’t lynched, so no revenge kill.
We’re in a pretty good spot with two confirmed townies alive. Let’s talk a lot and make good use of the extra lunches we now have.
Is there still a 60 percent hammer?
I appreciate that the urgency is down. But let’s get this right toDay and win – for sure this time. Three months is long enough.
I agreed with some of Johnny Bravo’s arguments about hawkeyop and Biotop. He thought they were the last 2 scum. I agreed in that, if hawkeyop was scum then so was Biotop.
The converse isn’t quite as strong as I suggested, but the argument against Biotop was lessened if hawkeyop was town.
Given that, the choice of Scathach was clear: if it’s a mislynch then there are strong pointers to the 2 remaining scum. If it is a correct lynch then we have lots of time to find the one remaining scum.
Amen to that. This game has been one heck of a time sink. My wife … has noticed.
Yes. I did not tell my wife I signed up for the new game on Giraffe. I fear the garden shovel to the head if I say anything.
Okay, I’m happy you guys didn’t listen to me! Sorry for doubting you Hawkeyeop.
I agree that things are less urgent now. I guess I’ll look back at Biotop, Raventhief and Johnny Bravo to see if I missed something. I still suspect Biotop and my suspicions are not tied to Hawkeyeop being scum, but I want to give him another read.
So now we’re in a pretty good spot right, some way away from LYLO.
Good luck everyone! Death has revealed so much to me. For instance…
EXCUSE ME
…Yes? Do I know you?
ALL MEN DO, IN THE END
Oh, well, just one sec…oh. Oh. I won’t have a chance, will I?
I’M AFRAID NOT
Koldanar fades out
The Living(7):
3. Biotop
7. Captain Klutz - Mason
19. hawkeyeop - Patsy
25. Johnny Bravo
37. Plumpudding
40. Raventhief
46. sinjin - “The Cardinal of the Cult of Lutha”
The Deceased(48):
12. Dante G – ModKilled D1 –Vanilla Town
29. Lakai 1 – Lynched D1 - Vanilla Town
35. Normal Phase – Daykilled D1 - Investigative Journalist
45. septimus – Daykilled D1 - EMT - [Killed by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (MHaye)]
48. Suburban Plankton – Nightkiled N1 (1) Homicide Detective
9. Colby11 – Nightkilled N1 – Vanilla Town
5. brewha – Lynched D2 – Vanilla Town
8. Chronos – Daykilled D2 - Mason
15. Drain Bead - Nightkilled N2 - Leprechaun
41. Red Skeezix - Modkilled D3 - Vanilla Town
43. Sario – poofed D3 - Wizard
23. Idle Thoughts - Lynched D3 - Vanilla Town
26. jsgoddess - Daykilled D3 - Beta Wolf
51. Thing Fish - Daykilled D3 - Omega Wolf
Alive:
Town (2/2 confirmable, 3 vanilla):
Captain Klutz - Mason
Hawkeyeop - Patsy
A Townsperson x3
Cult (1):
Cardinal - Single use protector - sinjin
Mafia (1):
The Mook - One time use power of dead teammate
Wolves (0)
First things first. We need to have a serious talk about yesterday’s delay.
The Delay Itself
I hope you guys will forgive me for diving into a mod post like this, but this is too important to let slide.
The delay had two components. The first was that it kept NAF from posting the lynch/daykill results.
Then he posted the results, but still wasn’t able to begin the new day.
[quote=The new Day is going to be delayed for just a minute due to the aforementioned issue. Frankly I’ll be thrilled if any of you guys speak to us again after tomorrow. So, I’m putting it off.[/quote]
Whatever happened not only effected how the lynch and/or daykill resolved, but also effected how the new Day would begin. What we know for sure is that it was something that happened during the Day and not something that happened at Night, hence the "aforementioned "wording.
The other possibility is the use of the “brought to my attention” line. It might mean that there was an ongoing circumstance of some sort that he’d forgotten to take into account.
The Mafia
Scathach was a roleblocker. She could have put an order in during N11 and it would have lasted through the end of D12.
But so far as we know, no roles were activated that could have been blocked. Koldanar’s redirect - if he used it - could have been blocked, but the patsy didn’t die and the mafia kill shouldn’t be redirectable since it’s not a role power. He had nothing to redirect.
The remaining scum is the mook. They could have used any other power that was not a one-shot. Here are the other scum roles.[ul]
[li]Informant - Watch a player to see what they do. Night ability.[/li][li]Hitman - Target a protected player, kill the protector. Night ability.[/li][li]Bodyguard - Protect a player during the night.[/li][li]Godfather - invalid mook target - can’t copy passive abilities.[/li][li]Consigliere - invalid mook target - can’t copy one-shot abilities.[/li][/ul]
Unlike the Enforcer (which lasts through the following day), the hitman, informant, and bodyguard activities only trigger the night they’re used. If the mook saved their one-shot, they waited too long. It’s useless now.
So I can’t see anything mafia-ish that would have required the mods to convene, keeping the day from ending.
The cult.
First, props to Koldanar for sticking to his guns. Thank you.
Since mafia didn’t have any abilities that would have had any substantial effect, and since the patsy didn’t die, it’s safe to assume that Koldanar’s redirect had no effect even if he named targets. Sinjin’s power was already used, and we have clear proof that it was used.
Then what the hell happened at EoD?
I can think of only two possibilities. One is much more serious than the other.
Possibility the Lesser:
Remember the main beef I had with Koldanar’s power? It was that the description didn’t make any sense - it was written in a completely different style than all the other power roles. My theory was that he was indeed cult, but that he’d edited his post and in the process had messed up the otherwise cohesive writing style.
What if I was right? What if the redirect power was one of Koldanar’s powers, and was not the first one listed? If he’s simply deleted the first few lines of his power description, he also would have deleted the stylistically consistent bland openings. It would also explain why the redirect power itself seemed so weird compared to the others.
So, the lesser possibility is that Koldanar had in fact lied about his powers and he did something yesterDay that threw a monkeywrench into things. I’m not even suggesting that he lied for nefarious purposes - it might have just been to keep scum from killing him immediately upon claiming. I call this the lesser possibility because Koldanar is dead now so there’s not much we can do about it and we certainly can’t verify it.
There’s also a possibility that sinjin has more than one power, but that one is pretty strong and makes sense as a standalone.
Do you think I’m being a paranoid lunatic and should just shut up about the cult forever? Okay, I don’t blame you. So let’s check out…
Possibility the Greater:
If yesterday’s shenanigans weren’t caused by mafia (which has a completely open setup, so tell me if I missed something in their powers), and if they weren’t caused by LUTHA…
Then we have a third party with an unknown powerset and win condition hiding among the four remaining unconfirmed players.
You are suggesting a third party who might have won, or might be about to win.
I don’t think we have seen evidence of another third party. Could **cookies **maybe have had a partner? Perhaps **cookies **was the immediate killer and her partner is some kind of stealth bomb planter (the fire)? There is a big unanswered question in our game. What was **Cookies **win condition? Was it merely to survive and kill (with a kill switch that could be turned off)? LUTHA after all had 5 survivors with a chance for all of them to still win inclusive. **Cookies **was solo and probably exclusive.
If the mods had come in and said we were all blown up and a third party had won the game, I would be a bit miffed… but if that was their win condition at the start of the game I couldn’t really be too mad. Kudos to the killers for pulling it off.
We can speculate and I am open to ideas that make the answer an imperative.
But I think the real key is to kill the final Mafia toDay. According to the rules, our win condition trumps any other exclusive win condition. I don’t particularly care whether LUTHA or any other 3rd Party also win. The more the merrier.
I am suggesting exactly what I wrote. The mods may have been checking a win condition, or they may have been discussing an unexpected use of a power or combination of powers, or the delay may have been about something I haven’t considered.
It’s not anti-town to discuss things. If we get further into the day and it turns out I’m pretty obviously trying to stifle scum hunting with this stuff, then you’ll have a point.
I agree, there’s no evidence. But help me out.
Based *only *on what we know to be facts (that is, current win conditions and known power roles), what might be a reasonable explanation for the delay and mod-conference at EoD yesterday?
If a player who has previously claimed VT (and that’s all of the current unconfirmed pool) claimed 3P toDay, would you advocate looking elsewhere for the lynch?
raventhief, I have been giving you pretty much of a pass. But I am trying to keep an open mind. Could you please post your thoughts on where the game is right now and whom we should lynch?
I do agree with this, btw. Lynching mafia toDay is our best-case scenario because our win condition will be checked as soon as the lynch happens. What I don’t agree with is waving away new pieces information along with their implications.
Would you?
I would want to hear a lot from this third party. It would take a great deal to convince me that this player was really third party and not another desperate Mafia making a false claim.
I agree the mod delay/conference is a fine topic for discussion. I have not come up with a good explanation for it. I do not advocate “waving it off.” I think we can both agree that as long as the discussion does not overshadow our hunt for the final Scum, it is fine. We have plenty of time.
I would 100% want them lynched. It would take a very strong case to convince me otherwise.
I’m glad we’re more or less in agreement on this.
@Captain Klutz: any chance of getting updated day-by-day vote counts?
I’m starting some new analysis today, but I want to prime the pump.
We now know that hawkeye’s claim was unforced.
My new questions are these:
Why did Scathach false counterclaim rather than drop into the unconfirmed pool?
Was Scathach’s claim a precursor for the blackmail scheme? Did scum believe they couldn’t win without it? Or did scum simply predict that hawkeye’s ultra-delayed claim would lend credence to Scathach?
Finally - since the blackmail scheme now seems to have not been preplanned, **why was Texcat (and Scathach to a lesser degree) so vigorously opposed to the patsy claim? ** This one is important.