Mafia Reunion Day 4

[Total_Lost]

@Biotop

In reading through Thing Fish’s postings he is among the first to I find that **Boozahol **was suspicious for the “canoodle” question on Night 0, and in post N0 #238 throws out the “ceremonial first FOS of the game” towards Boozahol.

Does Thing Fish follow up his FOS when the real game starts? No. Instead (Day1 #141) he finds Total Lost’s suspicions of ToeJam to be the more “egregious” example of possible Scum asking questions to mods of which they already know the answer. D1#327 he likes the cases against both Colby and ToeJam, but no longer mentions Boozahol Squid. Thing Fish tangles with Pleonast for much of the time over the next two game Days while also posting cases on MHaye and** Hal Briston**. When he finally gets back to** Boozahol**, it is only in the context of analyzing Brewha voters (Day3, #263). He still gives Boozahol a slight Scum lean. In doing so he says Boozahol was “weird and overaggressive on Day 1, Townier since.”

My impression is that** Thing Fish** wanted to draw suspicion on Boozahol, without it* really *drawing suspicion-- Scum team members trying to create separation. Of course maybe Thing Fish was just throwing out cases and leans he didn’t really have any intention of following, just to see what would stick. As someone else pointed out, Scum don’t care who dies, as long as it is not their team. But in reading **Thing Fish’**s postings I get the feel everything is measured. You can almost see the ruler marks in these posts. Odd he did not follow up on Boozahol.

+++++

*** I am the holder of a now useless Doctor Seward switch. I flipped it on Night one, but not after that. ***

What do you think of Thing Fish not even making a remark on the vote from DiggitCamara D3??

Have fun with that switch
It must seem like being given a broken iPhone3 from the Mods to play with

[BillMC]

The consensus seems to be that the Hitman got Toejam and the wolves killed Angel.

Toejam asked who needed protection, and said he wasn’t going to self protect - for the Hitman to have killed Toejam - either
a) he was self protecting and the hitman targeted him
b) he was targeting someone else, and the hitman correctly guessed that someone else

Angel’s spirtual belief in the Prof made her a prime target as she stated herself.

She would have been the obvious target for Toejam’s protect - but if he was protecting her, she wouldn’t have died.

If Toejam had been blocked, then of course the kill of Angel would succeed - but the hitman would have failed as Angel wouldn’t have been protected.

Add to that, Toejam would have been the most logical choice for the Watcher, or failing that Angel would have.

It doesn’t seem to me that using the Hitman on a potentially self protecting Toejam would be worth the risk of being seen by the Watcher.

So in my view, I think it is very unlikely Toejam was taken out by the hitman. So one of Toejam or Angel was most likely taken out by Batman.

We’ve noone currently up for a modkill, that means whoever is the watcher is active, and hopefully put their power to a good use and saw something.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Here we are at the start of D4.

If this was a regular-sized game, we would definitely be looking at some players just because they are famed scum-hunters and haven’t been killed yet. But this game, being 3 times the size of a regular one, may warrant this takes a later look. Especially since Scum have gotten unreasonably lucky with their kills of power roles.

Once again stating the obvious with no new content.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

And I understand that a lot of people don’t agree with my methods…

Lots of fluff, reposting, notes but no actual analyses?

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Vote Khameleon.
He’s on my list, and others have put up a fairly good case.

After all that analysis - what is your case?

@paulwhoisaghost

I’m pretty sure I have already said this, but for the record I am not a cultist. Is it possible LUTHA are responsible for the extra Day death on D3? Yes.

I think Chronos just flipped in his grave…the I am town/not 3rd was his “lynch all liars” battlecry - if the cultists were responsible for the kill then Crys/Sach have lied. If they did, we should still trust them as non-hostile just because the happened to hit a wolf?

@paulwhoisaghost

What? Why kill Angel? She was Professor’s biggest defender come EoD. And she slipped town, if Prof is a wolf it wouldn’t make sense for the wolves to kill someone who is defending him.

Coz scum wouldn’t to that!
Just because you have “the faith” in all things Angel, it doesn’t mean everyone else does - Angel could have easily been Batman’s target.

@Captain_Klutz

ToeJam was the Doctor. It’s difficult to see him protecting anyone else, so yes, I would say that he was almost certainly self protecting last Night. From which it follows that the Hitman is his most likely cause of death.

I would disagree. If he self protects then it makes it easy for the hitman - as toejam stated himself, the only way he stood a chance was to protect someone else - make it hard for the hitman.

@Lakai

Pleo seemed important enough for TF to go after him for three Days.

On the flip side, Pleo is persistent, and he kept going after Thing as well. I recall the first game I ever played with Pleo, I did something he considered “anti-town” and rode my back until I was eventually lynched, and flipped town.

@Crys75

No I was asked not to do so and I haven’t.

So you have someone else has claimed Cultist and you don’t use your apparent power to confirm that he actually is one?
There are two claimed cultists, and 3 unclaimed. Those 3 could have used their power to confirm the other 2 and establish a 5 person psuedo masonary…but they have remained quiet. Something smells fishy about the cult.
The fact that Khameleon is still alive is also susprising given his apparent “you seen me do something you scum” response to Thing’s vote.
I need to re-read the background of Total’s case on Diggit, but the case on Boozy like it is also worth further analysis.

[snfaulkner]

@sachertorte

…
I have a weird reaction to this. I find it very difficult to change my opinion on unknowns based on the death reveal of a vanilla townie. Angel didn’t know anything more about Prof. P, so why would her opinion sway me simply because she is revealed to be Town? …

I’ve learned to trust Angels gut on townies, especially when she slaps down the 40,000% or more suredness. And since we now know for sure she is town…

@Nanook_of_the_North_Shore

…
And yes, I voted for Town. Of course, just about everyone did. Just noting that by itself is disingenuous though. D1 was a crapshoot, and I think my vote was well placed if ultimately wrong. D2 I wasn’t here for the last half of the Day due to family issues, as I stated, so I don’t know how much that says. And there’s no way I was moving my vote off Idle D3, based on the way he was acting and how far outside of the correct way to play his actions were. So while I did in fact vote for Town, I don’t feel like I should feel bad for doing so. I was doing what seemed to be the best thing for Town at the time. Hindsight shows that to be wrong, but you know what they say about hindsight.

Re:My bolding: I absolutely feel gutted when I vote a towny into the noose. Maybe it’s just me, but I think you should feel bad.

@Biotop

In reading through Thing Fish’s postings he is among the first to I find that **Boozahol **was suspicious for the “canoodle” question on Night 0, and in post N0 #238 throws out the “ceremonial first FOS of the game” towards Boozahol.

Does Thing Fish follow up his FOS when the real game starts? No. Instead (Day1 #141) he finds Total Lost’s suspicions of ToeJam to be the more “egregious” example of possible Scum asking questions to mods of which they already know the answer. D1#327 he likes the cases against both Colby and ToeJam, but no longer mentions Boozahol Squid. Thing Fish tangles with Pleonast for much of the time over the next two game Days while also posting cases on MHaye and** Hal Briston**. When he finally gets back to** Boozahol**, it is only in the context of analyzing Brewha voters (Day3, #263). He still gives Boozahol a slight Scum lean. In doing so he says Boozahol was “weird and overaggressive on Day 1, Townier since.”

My impression is that** Thing Fish** wanted to draw suspicion on Boozahol, without it* really *drawing suspicion-- Scum team members trying to create separation. Of course maybe Thing Fish was just throwing out cases and leans he didn’t really have any intention of following, just to see what would stick. As someone else pointed out, Scum don’t care who dies, as long as it is not their team. But in reading **Thing Fish’**s postings I get the feel everything is measured. You can almost see the ruler marks in these posts. Odd he did not follow up on Boozahol.

There are other concerns that point to Boozahol as Scum:

1. Vote on** Hawkeyeop** for making his N0 “unfair to Scum” comment on Day 1. Does he really think a Scum player would argue about whether a tactic was fair or unfair to Scum on Night 0? Poor vote.
2. Complains to Mods about how Town roles don’t have cool names, being sure to refer to “us” as Town. Seems forced, phony light talk with hidden agenda of aligning himself with Town.
3. Spends lots of time wanting to vote for the cult and then voted for Crys75 on Day 3 before deciding now Day 4 we probably shouldn’t go after the cult.
4. Worries on Day 4 about what the Angel Town flip means for him. He votes Professor Pepperwinkle and then unvotes him. This whole exchange is troublesome. I have no problem with his initial suspicion of and arguments with Angel, who plays a great Scum game. I have no problem with his suspicion of Professor Pepperwinkle because I still think he (PP) could flip Scum, but not LUTHA. But I do have a problem with Boozahol’s voting self concern over Town concern.
   5. Angel of the North’s death removes a major Boozahol accuser.
   [color=blue]vote Boozahol Squid PI[color]

I’m liking the case on Boozy, but also Total’s case on Diggit. I’m gonna think for a bit while I eat and see were to plcae my vote.

+++++

*** I am the holder of a now useless Doctor Seward switch. I flipped it on Night one, but not after that. ***

For shits n giggles, do you mind sharing your switch PM?

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

This may not mean anything. This is simply a list of those surviving players who ended up voting on the bandwagons of now-known-to-be-Town players on D1, D2 and D3.

BillMC
Biotop
Captain Klutz
Cookies
Nesta
raventhief
sinjin
Sunny Daze

It may be interesting to see how many of these continue to vote for bandwagons of people who prove to be Town.

I wondered because so many voters have jumped so quickly on bandwagons (yes, including myself except for D3) all three Days. See Inner Stickler’s Post 151 toDay for confirmation.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

My Post 148 toDay was requested by Paul. It only covered D1. I assume he will have his own analysis.

All I see is that we are nearly all very quick to jump on bandwagons. Kudos to Chronos for having placed votes on both jsgoddess and Thing Fish. No wonder he was NK’d. Hooker gets the prize for having done the work-up on ToeJam that was most cited by others. It turned out he was wrong, but it was as in-depth analysis that anyone could have done.

With so many large bandwagons on various Town, I can’t see why Scum wouldn’t add to the numbers. Town certainly did.

[paulwhoisaghost]

@Total_Lost

I don’t understand this at all. Sorry.
Could you try to explain it to me again?

How would wolfes know him to be mafia? To them he could be Town or Cult or… Unless investigated. And that we can’t know.

And I’m confused why you think either Prof or Lakai??
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Sure I’ll try a different approach. Wolves just took two hits in one Day, relying on just the lynch they are gonna have a hard time catching up to the mafia. So I suspect the are going to start killing suspected mafia in order to regain balance. Someone killed angel, I suspect the wolves, if so, then I see them being suspect of Prof P as potential mafia. There are plenty of people who were suspicious of him as scum, and I don’t think he is a wolf, so he could be mafia or town. Given the amount of suspicion, I doubt it is all coming from wolves, so they have people outside of their team who are supporting their suspicion. If he’s not a wolf, then they know he’s not on their team. Killing him is at best a chance to even the score with the mafia, at worst it just furthers the overall population reduction goal. Thus I wouldn’t be surprised to find wolves wanting him lynched toDay and (if he doesn’t get lynched) wolves kill him toNight.

Lakai has openly stated that she is specifically looking for wolves. I doubt mafia are going to try to kill Lakai, as they don’t care about the wolves being hunted. I do see wolves being suspicious that Lakai is mafia, but the same argument applies here that I gave for Prof P.

Summary, wolves need to regain balance with the number of mafia. If they suspect someone is mafia, I don’t anticipate that player having much longer in the game. Prof P and Lakai have each given reasons to be under suspicion, neither seems to be a wolf, so I think they apply to the group that the Wolves might want dead now.

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[paulwhoisaghost]

@GuiriEnEspana

non- what? There’s a joke there, I’m sure. I had a similar reaction to Boozy’s post, but I was reconstructing his posts and it seems to fall in place. His first post makes multiple leaps and is confusing as hell but now it’s clearer that he thinks wolves may be framing him to save Prof.P. His next post highlights how he was just looking at the vote totals, and had not given weight to Angel’s defense of Prof.P., he was only considering her suspicions of himself. His third post kinda opens up his thought process, why did they kill Angel? They were framing someone. Who? Himself. Then he explains that framing Boozy would distract attention from someone who was likely in danger, and Prof. P. is the best candidated. Ergo, Prof. P. is scum. It sort of makes sense. I agree that it displays paranoia, and may indicate a survivor or PFK role, but likely not wolf, maybe mafia.
Eh, welcome back, how was the ski trip? Did you catch up on the last 7 days?
Fat fingers. I was replying to your post about Prof. P and now-proven-townie Angel’s defense of him, and said it was a point in his favor. I then wanted to contrast that with Nanook’s comment that maybe wolves killed her specifically so people would think exactly that but I couldn’t find his post anywhere on page 1 so I cut the first bit until I came across it again. And then I noticed something else in his post and got distracted.
I see. I may have skipped a step in my logic:

Angel is non-wolf. She has unshakable faith that wolfie Prof. P. is Town
Wolves consider killing her:

• if she flips Town, Prof. P. looks great due to halo effect
• if she flips mafia, Prof. P. looks like mafia, and could get lynched next due to association
  You believe there’s too much of a risk involved so…
  Either wolves decide not to kill her OR Prof. P. is not scum

I’m asking you if your deduction is that wolves decided not to kill her, cause the alternative is that Prof. P. is not a wolf, but you did not state this or seem to arrive at this conclusion. Make sense now? Or am I missing an alternative?

I just posted an alternative theory.

The wolves think Prof P is mafia.
Angel defended Prof P, making her likely Mafia.
Wolves kill Angel as revenge for the double wolf daykills. They don’t target Prof P because he had a solid vote tally yesterDay, and could be a good candidate for them to push for Lynch.
Angel flips town, that doesn’t mean Prof P is town.
Prof P goes back on the chopping block and or kill list.

Make sense?

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[BillMC]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

This may not mean anything. This is simply a list of those surviving players who ended up voting on the bandwagons of now-known-to-be-Town players on D1, D2 and D3.

BillMC
Biotop
Captain Klutz
Cookies
Nesta
raventhief
sinjin
Sunny Daze

It may be interesting to see how many of these continue to vote for bandwagons of people who prove to be Town.

I wondered because so many voters have jumped so quickly on bandwagons (yes, including myself except for D3) all three Days. See Inner Stickler’s Post 151 toDay for confirmation.

so your definition of jumping on bandwagons is either
a) voting late in the day
b) voting after you

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@BillMC

so your definition of jumping on bandwagons is either
a) voting late in the day
b) voting after you

Not in this case. In this case it is anyone whose final vote rested on someone we now know to be Town. Bandwagon may have been the wrong term.

[raventhief]

Yeah I don’t know that I “jumped on bandwagons.” At least not all three days. I always feel awful when i end up voting for a Townie, so this game has been an exercise in me feeling awful. Well, I don’t feel awful about Idle. (voted him in post 207). I ended up back on ToeJam, after initially voting him in post 37 on D2.

Anyway, I am having a hard time remembering my own votes, much less anyone else, so I am glad the records have been posted.

[paulwhoisaghost]

@BillMC

I think Chronos just flipped in his grave…the I am town/not 3rd was his “lynch all liars” battlecry - if the cultists were responsible for the kill then Crys/Sach have lied. If they did, we should still trust them as non-hostile just because the happened to hit a wolf?
Coz scum wouldn’t to that!
Just because you have “the faith” in all things Angel, it doesn’t mean everyone else does - Angel could have easily been Batman’s target.

I don’t think the 3P are hostile. I don’t think they are responsible for either wolf kill. I was asked specifically if I thought it possible. Possible, yes. But I still don’t think it likely or that they are hostile… I think it would imbalance the game.

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[snfaulkner]

@Enderw24

I thought I was done tonight. I lied.

Between this and your previous post I flagged for follow up, I’m getting all sorts of pings from you here.

You know, when someone dies in this game, my first thought isn’t “well shit. This totally implicates me, doesn’t it?” And my first action isn’t to come online and try to explain to people how this totally doesn’t implicate me.

First, because the thought would never occur to me to do so. But second, because I know I’m innocent, so why would I need to bother trying to justify or premtively explain anything? If someone wants to make a case, let them. I’m innocent.

But these don’t look like the actions of an innocent guy. You sure are trying to spend a heck of a lot of time justifying what should be a complete non-

Vote Boozahol Squid, P.I.

I’m not sure yet how I feel about Enderw24, but the more I read his breakdown on Boozy’s reaction this Morning, the more I’m seeing it.

Vote Boozahol Squid, P. I.

I might be persuaded to go onto Diggit if needed for the 2nd lynch. There is still plenty of Day left, however.

[TexCat]

@paulwhoisaghost

I don’t think the 3P are hostile. I don’t think they are responsible for either wolf kill. I was asked specifically if I thought it possible. Possible, yes. But I still don’t think it likely or that they are hostile… I think it would imbalance the game.

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Who exactly do you think IS responsible for the extra kill yesterday?

[paulwhoisaghost]

@snfaulkner

I’ve learned to trust Angels gut on townies, especially when she slaps down the 40,000% or more suredness. And since we now know for sure she is town…

Re:My bolding: I absolutely feel gutted when I vote a towny into the noose. Maybe it’s just me, but I think you should feel bad.

I’m liking the case on Boozy, but also Total’s case on Diggit. I’m gonna think for a bit while I eat and see were to plcae my vote.

For shits n giggles, do you mind sharing your switch PM?

I’m glad I’m not completely alone in regards to Angel’s gut.

I’m not sure which case on Boozy you are talking about, but if it’s based solely on toDay I disagree with you. What he did toDay is pretty much a repeat of what Toejam did… he got super paranoid and made himself a target. I think there’s a chance he is scum, but not based on toDay so far… still, I really didn’t like his side of the back and forth with Angel, and knowing she is town definitely makes me raise an eyebrow. I want more.

And no offense to Ullz, but she just reiterated what I’ve been saying all game and gained no traction… is it timing, or a parsing issue?

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[snfaulkner]

@paulwhoisaghost

I’m glad I’m not completely alone in regards to Angel’s gut.

I’m not sure which case on Boozy you are talking about, but if it’s based solely on toDay I disagree with you. What he did toDay is pretty much a repeat of what Toejam did… he got super paranoid and made himself a target. I think there’s a chance he is scum, but not based on toDay so far… still, I really didn’t like his side of the back and forth with Angel, and knowing she is town definitely makes me raise an eyebrow. I want more.

And no offense to Ullz, but she just reiterated what I’ve been saying all game and gained no traction… is it timing, or a parsing issue?

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Not solely, but today’s self target painting (and Elders’ summary) put me over the top in voting for him.

[snfaulkner]

@paulwhoisaghost

And no offense to Ullz, but she just reiterated what I’ve been saying all game and gained no traction… is it timing, or a parsing issue?

Yeah, you’ve been saying it too. I gave her credit since she did the WOW on him last Night.

[bufftabby]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Thank you. I am. I usually am. It never seems to help. My basic personality is cordial, friendly and helpful. I have trouble being argumentative and paranoid.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

I took it as a joke. Glad for the rope. I just don’t know how to sound Town.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Sorry if I came off as abrasive as well. I wasn’t really saying your choices were that bad, more that everyone’s have been, and for the reasons you just stated. On with the hunt.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Yep, that’s me. As a matter of fact, you’ve actually defended me in past games because you realized that I seem scummy to you when I’m Town.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

And I understand that a lot of people don’t agree with my methods. I’m Town and don’t want to be an imposition to others finding Scum. While I would much really rather live through the game, if Town votes to lynch me, I won’t take it personally.

Just a sampling of posts from toDay, but what really strikes me about Prof P is how self-deprecating and conciliatory he seems to be. It just doesn’t ring true to me. I understand that Angel felt strongly that his apology made him Town, the apology seems to be in the same overly-agreeable vein as these other posts and hits me the wrong way. I’m going to continue my vote from yesterDay for now, and

vote Prof. Pepperwinkle

[bufftabby]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Here we are at the start of D4.

If this was a regular-sized game, we would definitely be looking at some players just because they are famed scum-hunters and haven’t been killed yet. But this game, being 3 times the size of a regular one, may warrant this takes a later look. Especially since Scum have gotten unreasonably lucky with their kills of power roles.

Anybody think we need to be looking at this? Or is it really too soon?

And also this. We’re having trouble finding scum, so we should look at lynching anyone who’s known for finding scum? I don’t like it, especially as he doesn’t name names, which feels smudgy to me, fomenting suspicion without having to risk his personal responsibility for any particular lynch based on this advice.

[paulwhoisaghost]

@Nanook_of_the_North_Shore

Hey, here I am again being super helpy but not actually analyzing anything. I promise you some unspecified time later I will do analysis, just not now. But later for sure. I have no idea when later is, but it’s totally coming. Also, dead Town Angel totally believed me!

I have no reason to believe that Angel has magic scum/town differentiation powers, regardless of what you or anyone else is saying. But you keep making posts like this, and similar things that are completely devoid of anything resembling real content, and I believe you are doing a damn good job of hiding in plain sight.

Vote Prof Pepper

I am also totally OK with an Ender lynch for the reasons I outlined yesterDay. I could easily be swayed to a Pleo lynch, since I get the feeling that his PIS hit on Thing Fish was a case of reciprocal PIS.

To be fair to Prof, I requested exactly what he provided. As stated, I’m giving him plenty of rope to hang himself with. I think there is a good chance he is town and this game is throwing him for a huge loop. I figure why not take advantage of his skill with sifting through everything for the needed info. I can easily verify the data provided, and I don’t have to read a ton of fluff to get it. Lazy, you could call it that, I think it’s more efficient. There’s always a chance that he’s scum and would skew the data provided… but if he’s scum he has not been very successful in participating without attracting suspicion… so I figure if we ask him to for this kind of thing and he tries to mess with it, it would be easy to find. And if he’s town, it helps town to make use of all assets available, maybe he’ll see something he has missed so far.

Should he be doing his own analysis, yes. But if he’s town there is a reason that he has been trying everything but standard analysis… maybe he’s not really comfortable with it. From what I gather he always plays a mechanical game in more traditional games on GB. I’m not gonna Lynch him because his playstyle doesn’t stand up to this game, and I think that’s what is going on here.

If you are suspicious of him, good. I am too, but all I see is bad play so far… and that’s true whether he is town or scum. No offense Prof.

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[paulwhoisaghost]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Thank you. I am. I usually am. It never seems to help. My basic personality is cordial, friendly and helpful. I have trouble being argumentative and paranoid.

Prof, have you ever (and if so, how many games and what were your role and cause of death) played in a game…
…this large?
…with switches?
…with a 3rd party faction?
…with two scum teams?
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