Mafia Reunion Day 4

[paulwhoisaghost]

@TexCat

I did miss your vote, and find it odd that you haven’t mentioned Diggit again until now. You quoted all my posts, but I’m pretty sure that I never said I liked the case on Diggit. I never said I’d be happy to lynch either of the leaders. Why are you just lying? I mean, you just took the time to quote my posts, but you didn’t bother to read them? Or are you intentionally misrepping me?

No… my lines got crossed somehow.

This is the post I was attributing to you. It is by Hoopy Frood.

@Hoopy_Frood

vote Khameleon

Yes, I’m riding the coattails of Johnny Bravo and BillMc here. I really don’t have anything additional to add to the case. It’s a pretty solid one.

I’d also be happy with a Diggit lynch, as I’ve mentioned previous Days.

Boozy, too. (Though, I don’t find him as scummy as the other two.)

Those are my top suspects right now. I would be in favor of lynching 2 of those 3 toDay.

I apologize, when I was gathering all of your posts from toDay I somehow attributed that post to you.

As far as Diggit is concerned, I’ve made my suspicions of him known on D2, D3 and D4, made a case against him on D3, have commented on others’ cases on him. I’m not going to rehash my suspicions and my case on him periodically throughout the Day. I don’t expect anyone else to do that for their suspects either.

[paulwhoisaghost]

@TexCat

And again you have this wrong. My vote was on ProfP yesterDay, but given the fact that JSG and ThingFish were voting him, I’m pretty sure he’s not a wolf, and am giving him the benefit of doubt toDay.

You’re saying it wasn’t a wild goose chase, but what exactly did you do with the results again?

Again… not sure why I have your position on Prof P so wrong…

I’m not done with the data he provided me, I’m plugging it into spreadsheets and making it easier for me to visually see any connections. I’m not done, but so far I have realized that of those that voted on D1, everyone except Diggit, Scathach, and a now known wolf ThingFish voted for a now known townie.

Diggit voted for Colby, but 15 posts later he moved his vote to SNF for defending Colby. Probably the weirdest thing on the vote record IMO.

Scathach cast a single vote for you, TexCat.

ThingFish voted for Pleo, which I already knew, but didnt realize that he was one of only three who wasnt voting for town.

Of the players we now know to be town, they all voted for a townie on D1.

The following is a list of players who had voted for players that are still alive before switching their vote to one of the EOD lynch leaders.

Biotop voted for Boozy
Boozy voted for Hawkeyeop
Bufftabby voted for JohnnyBravo
HoopyFrood voted for Captain Klutz and Scathach
Meeko voted for JohnnyBravo
Plumpudding voted for Biotop and Prof P
Prof P voted for Enderw24 and Koldanar
Raventhief voted for TotalLost
SNF voted for Boozy
NormalPhase voted for Boozy and Pleonast
Septimus voted for Pleonast, JohnnyBravo, and Prof P
Suburban Plankton voted for Plumpudding
DrainBead voted for Meeko and CaptainKlutz
Angel voted for Boozy
JSGoddess voted for TotalLost.

As I said, everyone else voted for a now known townie… though some voted for multiple now known townies throughout D1.

Biotop voted for Chronos and ToeJam
CaptainKlutz voted for ToeJam and Septimus and ended the Day back on ToeJam
Enderw24 voted for Septimus and Lakai.
Guiri voted for Colby, then Lakai, then ToeJam.
Hockey Monkey voted for Colby but switched to Lakai
Meeko voted for Colby at one point, but ended on Lakai
Pleonast voted for NormalPhase and Septimus before ending on Colby
SNF voted for Angel(poke vote) and Lakai at one point, ended on ToeJam
TexCat, hey that’s you, voted for NormalPhase but ended on Colby
TotalLost voted for Septimus and ended on Angel
But that list alone doesn’t really speak to their alignment as
Lakai voted for Colby, ToeJam, and Angel before ending on ToeJam
Normal voted for both ToeJam and Septimus
Septimus voted for Colby, Angel, and ToeJam
Colby voted for Septimus and Brewha
Angel voted for DrainBead and Lakai.

In fact the only now known townie and only player on D1 to vote for scum was Chronos, who voted for JSGoddess and ThingFish, but landed on ToeJam.

So what does all of that tell me? That D1 is going to be hard to draw any conclusions from on its own. It’s even worse than I had realized. I can glean some connections from it, though. And it gives me a list of players who voted for players that are still alive, so I can look to D2 and D3 and see if those suspicions continued or magically disappeared. And it shows that more than one dead town was suspicious of Pleo and Boozy.

I haven’t posted this until now because I consider it to be an incomplete analysis that doesn’t bear much fruit. But because you are so eager to see what I did with the info, here you go…

[paulwhoisaghost]

A couple of questions…

1. Is there some way to see who posted and the number of times they posted in any given thread other than waiting for Prof to do it?

2. Is there a vote robot for SDMB like there is on GB?

3. Can someone explain to me the simplest way to make a WoW? I am still going through and selecting each post by a player. I’ve figured out how to search for all of a player’s posts in a thread, but I have to open each post to add it to multiquote. Is there a faster way?

[LightFoot]

@paulwhoisaghost

A couple of questions…

1. Is there some way to see who posted and the number of times they posted in any given thread other than waiting for Prof to do it?

2. Is there a vote robot for SDMB like there is on GB?

3. Can someone explain to me the simplest way to make a WoW? I am still going through and selecting each post by a player. I’ve figured out how to search for all of a player’s posts in a thread, but I have to open each post to add it to multiquote. Is there a faster way?

1 go to the main page “Thread games” to the left of this game cycle is a number of replies. clicking on that gives you your answer.
2 Not as far as I know ( yet)

3 see 2

[snfaulkner]

To add (or maybe subtract, lots of free terquilerses) to what lightfoot said: click on the number of replies, that will give you the “who posted” list. Then in that list, click the number of posts (not their name) and that will list all their posts in that thread.

[paulwhoisaghost]

@snfaulkner

To add (or maybe subtract, lots of free terquilerses) to what lightfoot said: click on the number of replies, that will give you the “who posted” list. Then in that list, click the number of posts (not their name) and that will list all their posts in that thread.

I got that, thank you. I was more wondering if there is a way to quote all of those posts without opening each one and adding it to multiquote?

[paulwhoisaghost]

@Hal_Briston

Well, if we’re going to lose town, then losing a massive distraction is about as good a result as one could hope for.

But woohoo for a double-scum death!

@Hal_Briston

Two players really pinged me at the end-of-day yeterDay.

In Post 882, Idle flamed out, posting a screenshot which effectively proved his townliness. Once he did that, he was all-but-confirmed, and was likely going to be modkilled if he wasn’t lynched.

He did that late enough in the Day that it likely wasn’t going to save him, having a pretty good lead in the vote count. Still, better to lynch an unknown than a known-town, so I (and several others) unvoted him. However, we also had these two:

1: PlumPudding unvoted Idle in Post 889, but then revoted him a half-hour later in Post 897.

2: ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies voted for him in Post 917.

In both these cases, we had players voting for town. Did he deserve a vote before posting that screenshot? Absolutely – I didn’t beleive a word of his claim. But once he made that post, he was as close as known town as one can be without specific mod confirmation. So to PlumPudding and ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, I would love an explanation – why would you vote for town knowing that he was town? Alternately, did you have some reason to think his claim was in some way false?

So N3, after Idle’s reveal you are okay with his death and agree that at least the distraction is gone… now toDay you are not okay with people voting him because he was a distraction? Whether he posted a screenshot or not, I didn’t want him in the game at that point. You seem to agree on N3, now you are building cases against Plum and Cookies based on them wanting the distraction gone?

[snfaulkner]

@paulwhoisaghost

I got that, thank you. I was more wondering if there is a way to quote all of those posts without opening each one and adding it to multiquote?

Sorry. I’M a lot slower than I think I am. Yay b days n such.

[NAF1138]

@paulwhoisaghost

2. Is there a vote robot for SDMB like there is on GB?

Septimus has one. He’s dead, but you have permission to contact him to see if you can figure out how to use it.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@paulwhoisaghost

[big snip]

So what does all of that tell me? That D1 is going to be hard to draw any conclusions from on its own. It’s even worse than I had realized. I can glean some connections from it, though. And it gives me a list of players who voted for players that are still alive, so I can look to D2 and D3 and see if those suspicions continued or magically disappeared. And it shows that more than one dead town was suspicious of Pleo and Boozy.

I haven’t posted this until now because I consider it to be an incomplete analysis that doesn’t bear much fruit. But because you are so eager to see what I did with the info, here you go…

That’s what I said.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

Since it looks like I won’t be around for EoD:

unvote sachertorte

vote Diggit

A self-preservation vote.

[BillMC]

@TexCat

But to your point about my pointing to the wolves first, that was due to Paul saying that the wolves have certainly changed strategy, shouldn’t town do the same. I was trying to argue that his entire premise was wrong. The wolves might want to kill mafia, but I don’t see how they could have a strategy to do so, when they don’t know anymore than we do who the mafia is.

I agree with texcat here. While the wolves would certainly want to kill off the mafia, they are more in the dark than the town. We have at least some investigative roles available, the wolves (like the mafia) have a single off.

@paulwhoisaghost

Town needs to be able to differentiate the factions in order to win this game. If you think you can play this game like a regular game of Mafia, you’re wrong.

No they do not. Town needs all 14 scum dead period. It doesn’t make any difference to town whether the scum teams are level or one wipes out the other.
If are down to 14 players and it is 7 mafia, 1 wolf, 6 town; or 7 mafia, 7 town, it makes no difference, we still lose.

@paulwhoisaghost

As the game gets smaller how do you think we are going to win without identifying them as either mafia or wolves as opposed to general scum? With a pro-town, anti scum vote and post record either a wolf or a mafia would be impossible to discern from a townie with an equal record.

Town wins when it wipes them all out

@LightFoot

Scum may feel this way, but as Town I don’t see it the same as you do.

As the game gets smaller. well it really does not matter to Town. we need all the ‘Scum’ gone. which faction they belong to doesn’t make much difference to us- does it?

Exactly.

@paulwhoisaghost

If no mafia die, we don’t push back LYLO. Mafia deaths push LYLO back. Until the mafia and wolves equal in number the only deaths that push back LYLO are mafia.

@paulwhoisaghost

Neither of you addressed the entire basis of my argument, right now, LYLO is based on Mafia numbers, not wolves.

So, do you disagree with that? If so, how do you see the current state of the game? It seems to me that you aren’t concerned with lylo.

With 7 mafia still alive, the earliest we could be at lylo is when we are down to 14 players. With 39 still alive, 25 would need to die, we’re losing 3-5 folk per cycle, so that’s 5 to to 8 weeks away. So no, I am not worried about lylo at this time.

You make the earlier point that the wolves would change strategy to go after the mafia (tho how they would know who the mafia are is beyond me), and yet you are suggesting that the town adopt a “lynch the mafia” strategy - which is pro-wolf.

As I also mentioned earlier, if we wiped out the wolves, then it makes it makes the vote record much more interesting as it is a straight town v mafia analysis.

[BillMC]

@paulwhoisaghost

You entire stance comes from an assumption that it is better for him to flip the switch. It doesn’t address the inherent wifom of what the other switch holder would do.

At the risk of agreeing with Meeko, he eloquently pointed this out days ago - it’s pretty much a variation of the classic prisoners dilemma set up. With the same “reward” human nature would result in both switches being flipped. In this case, the switch holders don’t necessarily share the same reward, but the outcome remains pretty much the same.

For example, take the case of the batman switch, whether the switch holder is town or scum, the preferred result is for batman not to shoot - as per the classic prisoners dilemma argument, both independent switch holders would probably throw the switch (which means batman can shoot).

Now take the case of the Doc Seward switch. Town does not want the switch thrown, Wolves want the switch thrown (doc cant protect), and Mafia would probably want it not thrown (Doc protects, so Wolf kill could fail); but then that is compounded by whether the Mafia want to use the hitman at the same time. So with the “knowledge” that your opposition probably wants the opposite outcome and wouldn’t throw the switch, you would; and with the same assumption the opposition would also throw the switch because the thought you did etc

@Biotop

So if the other switch holder was dead, I should never throw the switch. If the other switch holder was alive, it was still 50/50. So the odds seemed to me to be better not to throw the switch.

if you make the assumption that the other switch is held by the scum, then the death of two scum does make a statistical difference to the outcomes, but if it is held by town, then it makes little difference.

[BillMC]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Okay. Paul asked me to create D4.148. I assumed he’d provide analysis from data I provided, which is what he asked me to do. The fact that I didn’t come up with anything is because I suck at analysis these days. I’m good at data assembly. Paul didn’t provide any analysis either, FWIW.

So you claim to suck at analysis and as such decide that your best strategy is frequent posting of fluff.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Spoken like a true believer in LUTHA.
I will probably move my vote towards EoD, probably for self-preservation purposes.

You seem awfully self concerned with self preservation for a townie.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

My vote is more of a gut reaction, so I’ll leave it there until tomorrow, and move it if I need to defend myself. .

And again, self preservation

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Since it looks like I won’t be around for EoD:

unvote sachertorte

vote Diggit

A self-preservation vote.

You are more concerned with keeping your own fluffy hide in the game than hunting scum. Very anti-town.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

And just for the record, one more time, let’s see Who’s Posting:
and more to the point, who isn’t.

And once we remove your fluff count, you are pretty much at the bottom of that list, so by your own theory you would be scum?

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@BillMC

So you claim to suck at analysis and as such decide that your best strategy is frequent posting of fluff.
You seem awfully self concerned with self preservation for a townie.
And again, self preservation
You are more concerned with keeping your own fluffy hide in the game than hunting scum. Very anti-town.

And once we remove your fluff count, you are pretty much at the bottom of that list, so by your own theory you would be scum?

Hi, Bill!

I know I’m Town. Not a good player, but Town. Keeping myself alive preserves a known Town. That isn’t anti-Town at all.

I know you don’t agree with my theory. You have never agreed with my theory. You will never agree with my theory. But a game of this magnitude gives me the perfect chance to try it out, at least one last time.

And fluff has nothing to do with it.

[raventhief]

I wanted to analyze but things got away from me. so I’ll depend on the wows previously posted. I liked Paul’s analysis on diggit, so I’ll

** vote diggit **

For now. Maybe before end of day I’ll be on an actual computer and be able to look more closely.

[NAF1138]

DAILY VOTE COUNT
As a quick reminder - there are no powers, hidden or open, that can affect the vote count. If you see an apparent discrepancy, it’s the result of moderator error
Boozahol Squid (8)
Captain Klutz (45), EnderW24 (102), Biotop (180), snfaulkner (192), DiggitCamera (288), Meeko (302), Hawkeyeop (320), Inner Stickler (346)

DiggitCamara (8)
Paulwhoisaghost (20), Totallost (172), GuiriEnEspana (263), Koldanar (376), BillMC (422), Hooker Chemical (262), Prof. Pepperwinkle (511), raventhief (516)

Prof. Pepperwinkle (7)
Pleonast (121), Nanook (152), bufftabby (197), Zeriel (353), MHaye (417), sinjin (435), Lightfoot (473)

**Hal Briston (2) **
Plumpudding (298), Hockey Monkey (305)

Khameleon (1)
Johnny Bravo (26)

Biotop (1)
Lakai (440), Sachertorte (452)

Meeko(1)
Boozy (314)

TexCat(1)
Hoopy Frood (315)

Paulwhoisaghost (1)
Texcat (471)

*This post count brought to you by the fine folks at Paulwhoisaghost’s Mafia Emporium!

Hiya folks! is your usual townie toolbar not doing the trick this game? Dual scum teams got you done? Well head on over to Paulwhoisaghost’s Mafia Emporium!
We’ve got scum hunting products that are sure to crack even the toughest nuts! (part 1 of a series)
*

**ToDay, the top vote getter will die of course. The second vote getter will die if he/she reaches 14 votes. I believe in you guys, you can do it!

On the other hand. TIES ARE BAD and as it stands there is going to be a tie at the end of the Day. Don’t make NAF cry. Break the Tie!

The Day will end on Sunday at 3:00 Eastern.

Here is a countdown to that time.**

I’ll do what I can to get another vote count up in a couple of hours if you guys actually get back to posting at your normal volume.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

This game is crazy heavy. Even with the scum knocking off the talkative players, we’re still putting up a ridiculous amount of noise. There might be some information here, but it’s so hard to find it, especially because so often when I’m trying to look through chunks of posts, there’s so many references back to other posts. The two minute delay makes it even harder.

All this to say, what I do know is that I’m town. And in wanting town to win, that means I’m going to have to make a more tactical vote than my honest view that Meeko’s drive-by vote on me is the scummiest thing I’ve seen recently. So that means switching to one of the other likely candidates that I don’t know are town (unlike me.)

unvote: Meeko
vote: Diggit

[Hoopy_Frood]

@BillMC

You are more concerned with keeping your own fluffy hide in the game than hunting scum. Very anti-town.

Self-preservation is a null tell. If you know you’re scum, you certainly don’t want to die.

If you know you’re town, your lynch is guaranteed to be a mislynch. So why wouldn’t you vote self-preservation against someone who you don’t know to be town?

Since my one-off doesn’t matter, and I find boozy the least scummy of the three leaders and Diggit only leads him by one vote as of this point.

Unvote Texcat
Vote DiggitCamara

[NAF1138]

DAILY VOTE COUNT
As a quick reminder - there are no powers, hidden or open, that can affect the vote count. If you see an apparent discrepancy, it’s the result of moderator error

DiggitCamara (10)
Paulwhoisaghost (20), Totallost (172), GuiriEnEspana (263), Koldanar (376), BillMC (422), Hooker Chemical (262), Prof. Pepperwinkle (511), raventhief (516), Boozy (518), Hoopy Frood (519)

Boozahol Squid (8)
Captain Klutz (45), EnderW24 (102), Biotop (180), snfaulkner (192), DiggitCamera (288), Meeko (302), Hawkeyeop (320), Inner Stickler (346)

Prof. Pepperwinkle (7)
Pleonast (121), Nanook (152), bufftabby (197), Zeriel (353), MHaye (417), sinjin (435), Lightfoot (473)

**Hal Briston (2) **
Plumpudding (298), Hockey Monkey (305)

Khameleon (1)
Johnny Bravo (26)

Biotop (1)
Lakai (440), Sachertorte (452)

Paulwhoisaghost (1)
Texcat (471)

*This post count brought to you by the fine folks at Paulwhoisaghost’s Mafia Emporium!

Introducing Professor Pepperwinkle’s Postulating PDA! Now some may call it a glorified calculator, but it’s much much more. Simply put in your suspects number of posts and the PPPP will return an alignment result.* Quit beating your head against the wall and let the numbers do the heaving lifting!

All this and more at Paulwhoisaghost’s Mafia Emporium. Your one stop mafia tool shop! (part 2 of a series)

• The PPPP is only accurate to ((1/3 x 44)n-1)% Where n=the number of players

**ToDay, the top vote getter will die of course. The second vote getter will die if he/she reaches 14 votes.

Not tied anymore. Right now Diggit is up to die. You guys have a few hours left though. I’m on team multi lynch. Don’t give up!!!

The Day will end on Sunday at 3:00 Eastern.

Here is a countdown to that time.**