TexCat
March 8, 2017, 4:01pm
39
Johnny_Bravo:
I don’t see why. LUTHA do not need to confirm to help us gain value from claims.
Here are the current living players:
There are 14 players in the Scum Pool. There are six living scum. That means that we have a 43% chance of hitting scum if we just randomly shoot into the pool.
Let’s look at the percentages with other claim possibilities:
Non-patsy town, no lutha: 12 players in the scum pool, 50% chance of randomly hitting scum.
All remaining town, no lutha: 11 players in the scum pool, 54% chance of randomly hitting scum.
Non-patsy town, all Lutha: 10 players in the scum pool, 60% chance of randomly hitting scum.
All remaining non-scum: 9 players in the scum pool, 67% chance of randomly hitting scum.
In other words, every player who claims increases our odds of hitting scum by a significant amount. Even without LUTHA taking part. The moral of the story here is that we absolutely do not need LUTHA to sign off on a mass claim. Let them throw in with scum by hiding among them. You know what they say about laying down with dogs.
We have lynched one scum all game. We need to do better. This is how we do better.
PS: Hawkeye, you’re still on the hook for analyzing the high volume posters and trying to figure out why they’re still alive.
We are not going to lynch outside that pool of 9, whether they claim now or not. They can always claim later if it looks like they might be lynched. There is absolutely no reason for them to put a target on their back for the scum to hit. I was all for the Patsy claiming on Day One, but there are no investigators left. There is absolutely no reason for her to claim now.