And really, why should we trust that you’d do that at this point?
Devil’s advocate here for a moment, guys. Why should we remove a SK, when we still have 7 scum out there, out of 25 people?
Were we to have 2 lynches today, absolutely I’d be on board for getting Cookies, and one other. I argue that we still need info. And I suspect Mhaye isn’t long for this world, either, at this point.
My experience shows that, over the long haul, the activity of an SK winstealer tends to do more harm to the Town that the scum.
I played in the Arkham Revisited game (it’s still hiding over n Idle’s board, I hope). The game started badly for the do-gooders, with the first Day’s lynch being the Godfather and the second being a single-shot recruiter who failed to find a recruit.
Do-gooders won.
The Town were seduced by the lure of getting an early lead on the Mafia and allowed the second placed lynchee, who proved to be the Serial Killer, to live until far into the midgame. The damage she wrought was enough to enable the single hidden do-gooder to become active and retake the Batgear, resulting in a scum win.
Removing the SK will remove a single kill per Day/Night cycle, slowing the rate of Town attrition and maybe giving us enough time to win despite the bad start. Removing a single scum, whether Mafia or Wolves, will not.
Even if we had a 100% certain scum lynch, I would still need convincing that Cookies wouldn’t be the best lynch toDay.
Letting her live only makes sense if we can be reasonably assured that she will kill scum. We can’t be assured of that.
Let’s look at the possible scenarios which involve letting Cookies live.*
Best Case: we lynch scum today and Cookies kills scum. That would be awesome.
Worst Case: We lynch town and Cookies kills town.
Middling cases: We lynch scum and Cookies kills town or vice versa.
There is not an even distribution of probabilities between these four cases. Given random picks, the worst case scenario is also the most likely scenario. We obviously have a few scum candidates (I still like my Khameleon case), so the middling cases are very much within the realm of possibility. The best case scenario seems very unlikely.
But even if we do hit a middling case scenario today, tomorrow we just have to go back through the same math. If Cookies foments even one townie death that we can otherwise prevent, we come out behind.
I asked the same thing last night - without reasonable assurance that Cookies will hit scum, why would we keep her alive?
Sure.
I still think that there is more to the Lutha than we have been told. For example, Lutha seem particularly reluctant to out themselves thus far, despite town not treating them as a significant threat. One possible reason for that is they have an unknown enemy. Possibly a serial killer who could conceivably have a win condition of killing all Lutha.
That scenario isn’t particularly likely given Cookies play, but I figure it was worth asking about a possible relationship. What I was trying to get at was if Cookie’s role was associated with the Lutha, either as an ally or adversary. In order that to be the game, Lutha would have been mentioned in Cookies role pm in some capacity.
It is mostly moot though as Cookies doesn’t wish to cooperate with any line of questions.
Forgot about my asterisk. If Cookies can choose between Day/Night kills, will it matter? Do Day powers go off before or after a lynch? I’m sure this was answered elsewhere but there about five hundred rule clarifications within the first few thousand posts.
We can see where we are at tomorrow, but I’d say no for now. With a death every day + night, I don’t think we have enough claimable roles to get us to the end game.
I’m taking a risk here, but I want this game to keep moving.
I’m pretty sure I have the SK switch. I’m also guessing, since we’ve lost better than 50% of the game, that the other switch is out of play.
Hawkeye, I’m guessing that the SK does have a LUTHA play involved.
[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Knock knock knock
There is someone at the door. It’s a delivery man! Sign here please. Thank you.
You open up your package.
Inside is a box with a label. The label says GLaDOS switch. The heck is a GLaDOS? It’s is absolutely not something that will help the Cult. Likely something that would kill you all.
The switch is currently in the on position. You can toggle it if you like each Night. The next Night it will reset itself. Oh and there is also a note that there is another one of these out there. Huh.
Have fun with your gift!
[/QUOTE]
I’m all for removing Cookies, I just wanted some discussion, at the very least.
Vote Cookies
If you want to know, I wouldn’t claim because I was worried precisely about this scenario - the SK wanting to target us, specifically. There’s nothing in our PMs about this (you can see Crys’s), but I assume, since the switch PM calls us out specifically, we are at risk there.
Your last paragraph is unclear. Are you claiming LUTHA or are you speaking hypothetically?
Vote Cookies
Leaving an SK alive sounds nice and all, but beyond the fact that she’s more likely to kill Town than Scum, killing her slows the game down, which favors Town. Town’s weakness is lack of information, and the longer the game goes the more information that exists. Obviously there are limits to this, as voting no lynch is a mistake, but that’s because no lynch gives no information. Similarly, SK kills give less information than lynches or even scum driven NKs. So removing a kill that gives less information is beneficial for Town. If the situation were different, say there was only one of a particular scum faction left alive, I’d be in favor of leaving her alive since eliminating a faction also removes a non-Town kill while providing additional information.
Wait a moment, are you claiming LUTHA?
That’s what it sounds like to me.
oh and Vote Cookies
I can be convinced to keep a serial killer around, but not an uncooperative one.
I’m dead?
I’m dead!
This must be what the 5 stages of grief are like. I think I’m in Denial. No. Wait. Bargaining. Mods, if you bring me back to life I super promise that I’ll participate extra hard.
Players! If you accept me as alive I’ll totally spill the beans on everything. Want to know who I investigated last Night? Click here! Now why would I tell you this? What kind of bargaining position would I be in if did that? Those beans are valuable. I’m not spilling them to just any Tom Dick and Harry that comes asking.
And want to know the result of that investigation? I think you’ll find it surprising… I got stabbed the back. That’s what happened. By my fellow Dopers. How. Could. YOU?
I’m Blue! See? I’m a Townie! I was with you the whole time. We coulda been contenders.
But now I’ve gotta go to the afterworld. The FORBIDDEN ZONE. I cannot come back for the knowledge I seek is too powerful for any living Townie to process.
I can feel the shimmering. The quickening. The…
COLORS
It’s full of stars…
But if the SK was targeting LUTHA, why would Crys survive even one cycle past her claim?
Very much so, yes. I thought the cult line in the switch quote would sell it.
If you need breadcrumbs, I’ll refer to the following posts :
Day 4, posts 239, 240, 241, 242, and 244.
The first letters all spell L(you)THA.
This part I’m not sure about, honestly, unless there WAS a scum PM provided, or there is a protection going on that none of us are aware of. I’ve been hedging my bets that the SK was out for us thanks to that switch PM.
Breadcrumbs in Day 4 aren’t particularly convincing, or even necessary. What number cultist are you?
AN aha moment re: switches
Scum still have mimics alive- those switches should effect a mimiced power- so don’t throw those away when the primary is dead.
** Kolandar** have you pondered what “GLaDOS” may stand for?
and… IF YOU ‘THOUGHT’ YOU HAD AN SK SWITCH WHY DID YOU SIT ON THAT INFORMATION?
You can probably google that.
Who knew that the cookies were a lie.
ANOTHER odd thought passed through my sleeping brain.
A win stealing SK may have ‘special conditions’ regarding their lynch. perhaps they need a certain percentage of the available votes to be lynched?
** Vote CTTDSWHCookies **
I don’t usually add to wagons that are running away.making an exception because of a dream.
but I have to second guess myself because Cookies is plodding calmly to the noose.
Because Koldanar didn’t want to be killed by the SK? Seems pretty reasonable to me.