Mafia Reunion - Day Three

[paulwhoisaghost]

@AngeloftheNorth

You’re not willing to take the chance that he might come back?
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The wording here is weird… I parsed it as he thinks Idle is likely to come back. He’d rather lynch Idle today than take a chance that the mods will kill him. I feel that’s borrowing trouble. Until he shows back up, I’m proceeding under the pretense that Idle has quit the game. I don’t expect anyone that hasn’t played with Idle to understand that but I think it’s the best option.

I’ll even go so far as to say that if Idle or a sub does come back, they would have my immediate vote.

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[AngeloftheNorth]

@paulwhoisaghost

I know you as well as you know me Angel. I’m not gonna catch you as scum without doing a deep dive and WOW on you. It’s part of why I think you are a good player, as scum you make people work to catch you. I haven’t had time to focus on you yet and want to give you as much rope to hang yourself with as possible. Besides which you have openly stated your suspicions of me. Right now I have a slight scum lean on you, but I can’t honestly say it isn’t OMGUS biased, so I’m not taking a position just yet.

I understand your assessment of me. I don’t have one for you yet. All work and no play… my work schedule is really erratic, this week I had a light day on Monday and busy days every day since. I’ve been able to keep up, but only enough so to give my stance on the goings on and pose arguments… not enough time to do a wow… and you wouldn’t be one of my first targets for a WOW if I had time… If you are scum, I doubt there is enough to find a difference from your usual town play yet.

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I want to believe you, this game is going to be a lot better if you’re town. (WiFoM: I’d say that if I was town because you’re a great player, and I’d say that if I were scum because you’d be a great challenge.)

But you gave me three different answers to my question, something which is usually indicative of lying. And I know you know me well- well enough to know all my vanity lies in my scum game, a vanity you just appealed to.
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[paulwhoisaghost]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Here’s a little anecdote for all of you:

Yesterday I visited my pulmonologist to see if my CPAP machine was helping me with my chronic tiredness. (It is.) He informed me that it had to work because it was Mechanical. Yeah, you could hear the capital M.

And that brought to my mind the fact that, having done the research, I know that (especially with an oversized group such as this) my process of Lynching the Low Count Posters works. Note: I didn’t say Lynch the Lurker. Lurking implies going through the fluff. This is strictly Mechanical.

You may say you don’t like to play that way. That’s your opinion. My opinion is if it works, and if Town is down 10 players and Scum is down 0, I’m gonna stick to it.

I have been doing more reading over on MafiaScum. There I found two pieces of advice that encourage me: 1) Town are Idiots. We don’t have the information we desperately need and flail about all ways, hoping to luck into something. 2) Hunt the Scum Team, not just individuals.

So, on D1 and D2 there isn’t enough Data to really make a good case. This is D3. Here they are: The Mafia and the Wolves are most likely found in these 14 people:

Svejk, Cygnus42, Khameleon, Howkeyop, Hal Briston, DiggitCamara, Nanook,
BillMC, Koldanar, MHaye, nesta, Zeriel, Idle Thoughts, Inner Stickler

The order is from least-to-highest posters. Yes, I considered people who’ve subbed in for other people.

So, having said that, my vote goes to:

vote sachertorte
Not because I think I’m wrong about Scum. It’s because sachertorte and Crys have claimed to be 3P, and harmless LUTHA’s.

Archangel has said that 3P is always harmful to Town, and, having read through some 20+ games in the last year, I do believe she’s right. Crys offered herself up as a sacrificial proof, but she’s just the Second Deacon. sachertorte is the First. She’s protecting him.

After we get rid of the 3P’s, then we can concentrate on Scum. And the other possibility is, the Deacons are lying, and are actually Scum hiding as harmless LUTHA’s. In which case, we win. What they are not is Town hiding as 3P’s.
Plum, I haven’t forgotten your request. I am now going back to my reading, and will have an answer for that either today or tomorrow, as time permits.

Nope.

** Professor Pepperwinkle **

For assuming the scum are all low posters, while his post count is padded with vote and post counts. For calling out non-participants while barely contributing to the game. For wanting to lynch the 3P at a time they pose no immediate threat to town’s wincon but definitely would benefit scum to have lynched. Any one thing wouldn’t be enough for me to vote him… but put all three together and I’m happy to lynch him. I still plan to reread for other cultist pushers this evening but I’m not ignore one right in front of me.

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[Sunny_Daze]

@paulwhoisaghost

I guess he could have said nothing and just let us lynch him… I don’t think that would have gone over well. Instead he claimed.
So either he is telling the truth or he’s scum who had a good chance of being lynched and his claim is a Hail Mary to get the real doc to counterclaim. He’s got nothing to lose… people obviously want him dead… and scum hasn’t done it yet. Added benefit being that if the doc doesn’t counter claim the votes will drop off him real fast. It’s a win-win for a scum Toejam and a lose lose for town Toejam.

Given the WiFoM, and the fact that (if he’s scum) the opposing scum faction also won’t know if he’s telling truth but either way they know he’s either the doc or a member of the opposing faction, so they benefit from his death, I say leave him be for now and let scum sort it out.

My initial reaction to his claim is that he is lying, but I’ve been looking for gambits all game and been wrong. You tell me, is he more likely telling the truth or scum?

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Flu day 3. Still reading along.

I agree with Paul on ToeJam actually. I was skeptical when I read it last night and didn’t think “hail mary” but it’s the perfect description. ToeJam’s re-read of events and bread-crumbing seemed white washed and forced. But that’s me. Either way, for now I think Paul is right and we can let this one ride for now. We see if anyone counter-claims, or scum sorts it out.

I will continue to leave my vote on Idle Thoughts. Yes, he may get mod-killed. Or not. I do think he’s scum and we’re supposed to be hunting scum.

[Pleonast]

@Meeko

Retweets don’t equal endorsement…

No, but seriously, I see the value in this type of thing immediately. However, in all seriousness, I’m not trying to say I nescessairly agree.

I’d love to do the same as above, but I don’t really read…er uh, I mean I don’t have reads on anyone.

And frankly, it would be insane to start now. … It’s probably also insanity to have started.
Khameleons blend in, right? Can I poke the Khameleon with a stick? Will it show it’s true colors if I do?

Vote Khameleon

This post makes me feel better about Meeko. Not that I necessarily agree with poky votes, but it shows pro-Town engagement.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

After we get rid of the 3P’s, then we can concentrate on Scum. And the other possibility is, the Deacons are lying, and are actually Scum hiding as harmless LUTHA’s. In which case, we win. What they are not is Town hiding as 3P’s.

That’s good enough for me.

unvote
vote Prof. Pepperwinkle for explicitly advocating a pro-Scum tactic in D3.339.
vote Thing Fish for revealing that Scum do not learn the identity of everyone on their team on their secret board in D1.253.
vote Idle Thoughts for the meta-reason of typically lurking when scum.
vote Scathach for scolding a player for being too helpful to Town in D1.35.
vote Johnny Bravo for being too defensive and misrepresenting another’s case in D1.265.
vote Plumpudding for refusing to vote when called on it in D1.401.

[Koldanar]

Ok, not quite a mega post, as I need to read again, but here go my thoughts.

First off, the Toe Jam claim - I wasn’t sure what I thought about him at this point (All I had next to his name was a big ? - he was playing odd (to me) but not yet scummy or townie - I was thinking 3p at that point). Barring any counter claim, I am assuming town right now.

Post 14 - Johnny B wants to lynch sach, either for info, or believing he is a lying scum. I think, this early, to lynch a 3p when no scum have been touched yet is anti-town. I realize the nature of a 3p claim means it would be hard (or impossible, depending on how these mods set it up) to get a counter claim going, but I am content to pursue scum rather than 3p.

Post 16 - I don’t like Enderw24’s straight up attacking of the LUTHA claim from Crys. I can see doubt being cast on sach, but Crys came out of nowhere with the claim. I can’t fathom a scum reason for claiming this, when there was no heat whatsoever on Crys, without it being some overly complicated gambit.

Post 17 - snfaulker came out and voted Toe Jam right away. I need to re-read day 2, but didn’t you vote crys then (on re-read, I see yes, you did)? What has changed, in your opinion?

Post 116 - Paul, I did post other content yesterday. I argued for a multi lynch (which didn’t happen, and I didn’t like either of the top two contenders yesterday), I discussed the claim a bit, and I argued for my vote. I admit i’m a lighter poster (lurking habits die hard?) but I do think you misrepresent me by stating all I did was go after non participants.

Post 136 - Klutz here put into words exactly how I feel about Johnny b’s post and vote. I’ll say it again - lynching a 3rd party is a mis-lynch right now in game.

[Inner_Stickler]

Vote Prof. Pepperwinkle

I agree with Pleo, it’s one thing to hold claimed third parties in abeyance while we look for scum, it’s something else entirely to recommend putting off looking for scum to lynch claimed third parties. If they’re non-hostile, we do nothing to further our wincon.

[Biotop]

@AngeloftheNorth

That’s a good point about letting scum sort it out. My initial reaction was also that he was lying but I don’t want to risk it.
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The problem with a **ToeJam **false claim is that it is accompanied by detailed long texts that explain his play.

A major complaint I had against **ToeJam **early on was his ducking out on Day1 when the heat was on. He’s hardly ducking out now. He’s making WOW posts that surely take lots of time to compose. Why do all that effort and then make a false claim that might be easily countered now or would surely come to light later on? This doesn’t match up to a player who vanishes Day 1 because of the heat.

I have never played with **ToeJam **before. If anyone else has insight on whether this is his style of play, I would be glad to hear it.

When I asked him about his initial return posts, he responded right away with a somewhat plausible explanation. The whole “I was playing fake cop” story seems too fantastic to have been made up. Or maybe I am just gullible.

I am still waiting for a response from **ToeJam **explaining why he protected himself Night 1, but did not read the game thread. That makes no sense to me. But his play if he is Scum makes no sense either.

[Koldanar]

I’ll go through the list as well - we have enough players, this should help organize my thoughts a little, as I’m reading.

1. AngeloftheNorth - neutral
2. BillMc - slight scum lean
3. Biotop - neutral
4. Boozahol Squid, P.I. - slight scum lean
5. brewha – died D2 (1276) – vanilla Town
6. bufftabby - I haven’t noticed posts - neutral
7. Captain Klutz - I’m suspicious, but not in either direction - I’ll say suspected 3p
8. Chronos – died D2 (1276) - Mason
9. Colby11 – died D2 (1) – vanilla Town
10. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - neutral
11. crys75 - I trust the LUTHA claim at the moment.
12. Dante G – ModKilled D1 (1) –vanilla Town
13. DaphneBlack > Lakai 2 - Has Lakai 2 been posting?
14. DiggitCamara - neutral
15. Drain Bead - Daykilled D2 - was magically delicious
16. EnderW24 - scum lean
17. Guiri - town lean
18. Hal Briston - neutral
19. hawkeyeop - neutral
20. Hockey Monkey - neutral
21. HookerChemical - neutral
22. Hoopy Frood - neutral
23. Idle Thoughts - scum lean
24. Inner Stickler - slight scum lean
25. Johnny Bravo - scum lean
26. jsgoddess - slight town lean
27. Khameleon - I don’t even remember reading posts - neutral
28. Koldanar - I like Dark Souls 3 - anyone play that?
29. Lakai 1 – died D1 (1214) vanilla Town
30. LightFoot - neutral
31. Meeko - 3p?
32. MHaye - neutral
33. Nanook of the North Shore - neutral
34. Nesta - neutral
35. Normal Phase – died D1 (1214) Investigative Journalist
36. Pleonast - scum lean
37. Plumpudding - neutral
38. Precambrian mollusk > Cygnus 42 - neutral
39. Prof. Pepperwinkle - scum lean
40. Raventhief - neutral
41. Red Skeezix > Svejk - neutral
42. Sachertorte - Claimed LUTHA, not sure.
43. Sario – died D3 Wizard
44. Scathach - neutral
45. septimus – died D1 (1214) EMT
46. sinjin - neutral
47. snfaulkner - scum lean
48. Suburban Plankton – died D2 (1) Homicide Detective
49. Sunny Daze - neutral
50. Texcat - neutral
51. Thing Fish - neutral
52. Toejam - Claimed, believe for now
53. Total Lost - neutral
54. Winston Smith > Paulwhoisaghost - I don’t even know
55. Zeriel - neutral

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@Inner_Stickler

Vote Prof. Pepperwinkle

I agree with Pleo, it’s one thing to hold claimed third parties in abeyance while we look for scum, it’s something else entirely to recommend putting off looking for scum to lynch claimed third parties. If they’re non-hostile, we do nothing to further our wincon.

We only have their word that they’re non-hostile. We do know they’re not Town.

[Svejk_1]

@snfaulkner

41. Red Skeezix > Svejk - Lurking, but just subbed in. Hopefuly catching up

Actually I never got my role PM and because I was also a little overwhelmed by the sheer amount of reading that awaited me, I wrote to Mahaloth that on second thought I was going to pass. So I never subbed in. I just I’d see if my absence was being noted since I never heard back from Mahaloth after I wrote to say I was chickening out.

[Pleonast]

A general comment: I appreciate players giving their opinions on the whole list of players. But I find it weird to consider someone to be “leaning Town”. I divide players into two groups: 1) those I’m currently willing to vote for, and 2) everyone else.

[Inner_Stickler]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

We only have their word that they’re non-hostile. We do know they’re not Town.

Town wins when we eliminate the 14 scum players, period. Unless you 100% believe Sach and Crys are scum masquerading as third party, advocating for their lynch is anti-town and pro-scum.

[LightFoot]

voting someone for a bad idea/plan is not always good- Town share bad ideas more often than Scum.

But Voting for a claimed 3P- when there have been multi-discussion about why it is a bad idea this early is worthy of my vote.

** Vote Prof.P **
added bonus for Prof voting Sach, is that the majority will not follow suit and **Prof **gets to stay out of accountability for the actual lynch (If we allow Prof.P to survive)

Yes, I do think ** Idle ** is Non-Town. and IF he returns I will change my vote to him.

[AngeloftheNorth]

@Pleonast

A general comment: I appreciate players giving their opinions on the whole list of players. But I find it weird to consider someone to be “leaning Town”. I divide players into two groups: 1) those I’m currently willing to vote for, and 2) everyone else.

I post who I’m leaning town on because I’ve had success forming coalitions of likely town in previous games.
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[Inner_Stickler]

@Pleonast

A general comment: I appreciate players giving their opinions on the whole list of players. But I find it weird to consider someone to be “leaning Town”. I divide players into two groups: 1) those I’m currently willing to vote for, and 2) everyone else.

I don’t like the lists of leans at all. If I were scum, I’d start looking for a player who lists as much of my team as possible as leaning town and then off that person. If the person flips town, most of my team has just become slightly harder to lynch because town will have to vote against the opinion of a dead Townie and that can be hard for players to do.

[LightFoot]

@Inner_Stickler

Town wins when we eliminate the 14 scum players, period. Unless you 100% believe Sach and Crys are scum masquerading as third party, advocating for their lynch is anti-town and pro-scum.

Agreed. Scum need them dead,let them take them out.

[LightFoot]

3. I saw a really good scum motivation for Brewha’s unprovoked claim. I explained it before and will do so again. I’ll use spoiler tags to reduce the size of this post.

SPOILER: Show
If scum hold a batswitch, then it makes sense to me that they would want to take out the holder of the matching switch. How do they find out who is holding that switch? Well I guess Brewha could just tell them, but again I see that as a bad play, but that’s exactly what happened. Back to the hypothetical. If scum wanted to neuter batman, and assume that town hold the other switch, then claiming to hold the batswitch could provoke a townie holding the switch to counterclaim. If that townie didn’t counterclaim they would be allowing town to be misinformed when it is likely that the person claiming is scum because the odds of town holding both switches is low. But a scum team strategizing should come to the conclusion that the scum who claimed to hold the switch would end up in hot water, so it would make more sense to hand off the PM info to a scum member not holding the switch and have them make the claim. If successful the scum would gain control of the Batswitch.

Which part of this is illogical? Is it too paranoid? This is a complex game with a lot of very experience and very skilled players. If I could think of this possible scenario, then I have to assume that better players could also think of it. I was wrong, but I stand by my logic. If you disagree we can discuss that, but I don’t see how it would benefit town to argue over it at this point, the time for those arguments was before Brewha’s lynch.

**Paul ** above is the point that you said you lied in-- what here is a lie?
I would have quoted the post where you brought this to my attention but damn if I can go back to find it at the moment

[LightFoot]

@Inner_Stickler

I don’t like the lists of leans at all. If I were scum, I’d start looking for a player who lists as much of my team as possible as leaning town and then off that person. If the person flips town, most of my team has just become slightly harder to lynch because town will have to vote against the opinion of a dead Townie and that can be hard for players to do.

I suppose then if a player that has you with a Town lean is offed, we should come after you? :rolleyes:

note: I am being a bit of a smart ass here-^

leans are just that ( when Town) and there can be helpful information there for Town
You toss your coin I will toss mine

[wonky]

@Inner_Stickler

I don’t like the lists of leans at all. If I were scum, I’d start looking for a player who lists as much of my team as possible as leaning town and then off that person. If the person flips town, most of my team has just become slightly harder to lynch because town will have to vote against the opinion of a dead Townie and that can be hard for players to do.

I just can’t agree with this. No one should follow me off a cliff, and the mental errors in my posts speak for themselves, but I’ll share what I’m thinking (which is remarkably little about some players) in the hopes it benefits us.