My thought process is very simple. If ToeJam is telling the truth, the scum will want to get rid of him. If he’s not dead by Day 5, I start looking squinty-eyed at him.
No… I lied when I said I would address point #3 of your response when I could figure out what you were having trouble parsing.
In my post I said I lied and then explained why I wasn’t going to try to clarify that point because it was my attempt at clarifying my position at the time. If I haven’t been able to clarify that point after rehashing it already, I don’t believe I am going to be able to do so unless you have specific questions that would help you parse point #3.
Does that make sense now? If not I can quote the whole conversation chain and try to clarify for you.
My lie was the statement that I would explain 3. in another posts when I knew what it part it was.
I’d like to take this and expand if I may. By making a list and posting it publicly it does two things.
For town it shares info with everyone on how you are leaning for all players. It gives town players under suspicion a chance to see when they are being a distraction… say for example that no one has voted for you but a bunch of players has you listed as slight scum lean. You could then ask them why they have slight scum leans and get them to expand on their suspicions. If they are scum, it gives town even more of a record of them casting doubt on a townie. If they are town it still helps by giving you a chance to address those suspicions and hopefully prevent your own mislynch. You don’t know which they are, but at least you have gotten everyone on the record voicing their thoughts, later game that is valuable.
It forces scum to take positions on everyone and prevents them from being able to suddenly shift their opinions without reason. It gives town a record to go back to and find contradictions. Sure scum are going to try to falsify their lists to their own benefit, but later in the game it will put them in a sticky situation.
This is vastly different than all of the scum lurking. And if not all of them are lurking then there is meat in the thread. It feels like you are dodging placing a vote against an active player after doesn’t some actual sleuthing. You are playing a numbers game that if accurate has close to equal chances of hitting town as it is scum. If you think there are 7-8 scum in the lurker pool as you stated above, then that leaves what 7-8 non scum?
Well, it’s easier to hit Scum if you have a 50% chance (this pool of 14) than it is if you only have a 33 1/2% chance (the pool of active players). The 6-7 non scum players, being low posters, aren’t impacting the game as much as most, and aren’t leaving much of a record that can be examined later.
This was my initial response too. But even if the other scum faction thinks he’s lying about the claim, they still know that he’s on the other team… they benefit a lot by taking him out it makes them a step ahead of the opposing team in terms of wincon where a townie kill doesn’t. That’s why I say leave him be and force the scum to kill him. It not like all of this against him is going to go away… if for some reason he survives to end game, he’s a sure lynch. And if he is telling the truth, we don’t lynch are doc on D3.
Because town is more than happy to let them be offed and no one is gonna protect an outed cultist. Because scum benefit from their death just as much as a townie death so claiming makes them an easy target. Because it serves no purpose to further their wincon, they are better off playing the game as though they are VT and trying to make it to end game, which is good for town.
I see plenty of reasons for them to want to stay hidden. There is no chance that they will achieve their claimed wincon if they all claim. Especially not with procultist lynch players around.
The other faction would want him dead either way. Telling the truth, he’s a doc, definite target for kill. Lying, he’s on the opposing team and they should want him dead even more. A chance to take an early lead would help prevent the other team from winning if any of their members are lynched or killed randomly.
This is random.org logic. If you play this game by numbers alone we will lose. This is not pro-town. You advocating it is not pro-town. You should be doing some sleuthing and seeing if the numbers back you up… not consulting the numbers and taking a 50/50 shot in the dark.
You don’t have a 50% chance of hitting scum if there are no scum in the pool you have chosen. Your chance then would be 0%. I could randomly choose 14 players off the list and probably be as correct as you are with your pool. Are there scum in the lurker pool? Highly likely, but I’d wager there are 2-3, not a solid 6-7 as you seem sure of.
Well, if I hadn’t put my vote on sachertorte, I’d have put it on Idle (who is on my list) because he’s playing as he does when he’s not happy with his role. Is that more what you had in mind?
Regarding your request for an overview of voters who switched off of brewha, Crys or ToeJam yesterday — the most important statement is a quote from LightFoot in Post 1055:
brewha revealed he had a switch in post 211. For the next few hundred posts no one voted for him except bufftabby (373), who viewed him as possible Scum trying to find the Vig. tabby’s vote only lasted until Post 417.
It isn’t until Post 538, when Chronos revealed that brewha lied that the bandwagon begins on brewha. All of them give either no reason or the reason that he lied. The reason for the votes on Crys, when given, were for her admitting to be 3P. Interest in Crys was never as big as interest in brewha.
Then in 909 Biotop started the vote on recently returned ToeJam. Biotop, sachertorte, raventhief and Hooker all changed their votes to ToeJam from brewha. Paul, Capt. Klutz and Sunny Daze changed their votes to ToeJam from Crys. There were some other votes onto ToeJam at the end, which, if it had continued, might have saved brewha.
Since brewha has been revealed as Town, there’s not much cause for suspicion, as far as I can see.
Finally, Paul! A scenario I can follow AND I can agree with!
Oh Prof P, I love having you around, but man…this is just…sigh
Let me paraphrase how I’ve seen your game so far: “After many days and Days and of reading and analyzing (and not fluffing it up) I’ve determined an inordinately large percentage of the following list are probably scum, and of those I vote for…none of them. Instead I’m voting for a claimed 3rd party.”
I don’t know if this is just bold and scummy prof, or just head-not-in-the-game bad towny prof…
I’m thinking you may be scum trying to make a sacrifice to keep toejam alive one more night…I’ll have to think about this theory…
I voted Crys yesterday because A)I believe brewha was town and only those two were really in contention at the time I voted B)I wanted to see her flip as the 2nd lynch and C) I wasn’t around at EoD when votes radically switched to toejam. Now toDay there is only 1 lynch available, and I think it is best to get try and get scum with it rather than wasting it on a 3rd party.
Soooo…are you playing or…not?
Town shouldn’t be worried about being offed by the scummy scummy bang bangs. The should be worried about getting their thoughts known before they die.
Yeah, I pretty much shot myself in the foot voting for sachertorte. I missed out on most of the discussion to have Town not vote for the Cultists because I was re-reading N0 and D1 and some of D2, and skimming the more recent posts.
I also believe the cultists’ description is fishy. The fact that they are/were hidden from each other and have the power to find each other might make what happens AFTER they find each other interesting. And not necessarily good for townsfolk.