Mafia Reunion - Day Three

Speaking from experience as a terrible vig, scum would want the mandatory vig active, at least in the early part of the game when they are more than likely to hit town. But I admit there might be such a player that isn’t terrible at playing the vig.

The post you quoted was from D3… not D2. What post are you talking about?

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My reasoning was pretty simple. I was hoping to have a chance to catch up before voting on Sunday, but life interfered, and I at least wanted to have a vote down. I came back to the game with 10 minutes to go, scanned and saw that ToeJam was a viable candidate, and thought he was the best option that had any chance of being lynched. At the time of my vote, though, I wasn’t even sure what the vote count was so didn’t know if it really mattered.

I stated in D2.473 that I thought brewha was probably town, and despite the lie I still thought so. His switch claim was unforced, and I could read his fishing for advice on how to use the switch as townie.

I found Crys75’s third party claim, also unforced, believable. It is something that needs to be examined, but due to the win conditions of third parties counting against scum, I thought her lynch was shortsighted. Lynching her was an easy, lazy lynch, and I thought it needed another Day at least to think through the logic of it.

That left ToeJam, who I found scummy D1 but didn’t vote for him (I wish I would have) because he wasn’t around to defend himself. I felt he was the best choice of the three leaders.

If I had felt like making a one-off vote it would have been Pleonast or Chronos (oops), but at the late hour those seemed like useless votes. I was wrong about Chronos, but Pleo needs a good looking at.

I’m tempted to vote ToeJam, but he asked for justification, and I’d like to review and give it to him before an official vote. Also, even though I think he’s scum, there are 13 others out there, so I’m trying not to focus on just him.

But we don’t know their wincon. We don’t know if it is for them to complete a chain of all 5 of them having investigated another without dying or if it’s something really crazy like fulfilling a list of unlikely to survive tasks… who knows. If they aren’t telling the truth it could be anything and without knowing what we have no clue when it will be achieved. If it’s before town or scum meet their wincon, then they win.

But I’m going to proceed with leaving them alone for now and hoping they toe the line and act in towns best interest.

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Too much fucking Blue!! >:(

But at least we are down to a trickle of drips. Trying to be optimistic.

Toejam, you killed me with your killing us down here groaner. :stuck_out_tongue: Lots of people have been nipping at you since Day 1 and I really don’t want to have to go try and get a better idea about why. Then you came back after lurking like a mofo and they still want to hang you and try and decide who else to hang based on how they feel about how other people feel about hanging you or not. The whole mess stinks of distraction to me.

I want to trust in a benevolent cult but I can’t yet and admit that I will not be sad if one of y’all confirms some stuff by way of dying. Nothing personal.

Now to remind myself of the Wizard…

Sooo, here’s a thought. Might have Sario thought that Toejam is town and thus protected him from batman? I wish he would have at least popped in to give his thoughts.

fair

I had this thought… and that he used the rest of his spells to tell us that, claim, prevent being a distraction, and give us the reveal all at once… but then again, why not just post and then use the spells.

Better guess, IRL got the better of him, he was aware that a mod kill or his mislynch might be in the works and he couldn’t keep up with the game so he did the best thing he could for town being bowing out and used his remaining spells…

Or it doesn’t really matter other than we know there are between 1 and 7 people protected from the DK toDay.
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Who said anything about saving you? I specifically mentioned it being additional information against you.

Eh, it’s possible I’m wrong and it won’t help any, which is why I asked for other people’s thoughts. I considered it to be another data potential data point. I don’t consider Batman being outted a major downside, since he’s effectively vanilla for at least the likely near future. The odds that the other switchholder goes down before Batman is fairly low. Upon further reflection, I do get that with a claim those odds go down to nearly zero. And thinking it through some more, if the switchholder is Mafia, and we are set to lynch said switchholder, then they will likely just DK Batman. In which case, the only way Batman gets a shot is if the switch person is Wolf, or some other mechanism kills him or her unexpectedly.

I guess I’ve talked myself out of the idea. Meh, that’ll teach me to post at night.

It seems like the by far most likely option is that he felt he couldn’t keep playing for whatever reason and didn’t want to get modkilled, so did what he could to best help his team. If we assume all 7 protections were still available, which seems reasonable, that means there’s at least a reasonable shot at the DK being foiled.

Just One for certain This Day- there have been other phases where the power may have been used - each Day Night cycle ‘could’ have had protected people.
we need to factor that in somehow too… arg
although I can’t help but wonder why they didn’t post prior to sending in the last order- a question for after game

:cool:

Attrition. This game is going to take a toll on everyone playing.


**Vote Toejam **

It makes sense to me that if the vig was purposely shut down, it was done to protect the most likely target, Toejam. While there is no way to tell for certain that the vig didn’t kill because the switch was turned off, it seems a reasonable guess.

Yeah, the movement was kind of weird. Furthermore, if a scum faction has control of the vig switch, they’d want brewha dead so that they can turn the vig on or off at their whim. So those who stayed on Brewha yesterDay have extra reason to stay there if they control the other switch.

Of course, with Crys’s paranoia of vig kills, it’s possible one of the LUTHA fear the vig wants to target them and so have switched the vig off. Personally, I think it would be a lazy play for the vig to target them, and at this point such a move wouldn’t give town as much info as other targets would. And right now town needs info on scum far more than it needs some sort of confirmation on third parties.

Then again, Brewha was self-proclaimed anti-vig and said he was going to flip his switch, so maybe there’s another townie who feels that way. I’d still say the vig running free at this point is better than not. We have a lot of people and not much information. In smaller games, an active vig can be a liability until scum patterns can be established. But this game is huge. Town needs information right now, and a vig can help that. In a game this large, the vig actually is less a liability now than he would be in the mid-game.

Both trains on Crys and Brewha seem to have came fast and furious. And there are certainly good scummy reasons to be on either one. I don’t have time right now to review those votes, but my vote toDay (at least the first one today) will probably come from one of those.

What are you going on about? Why would he need to? I brought it up in post #444. Someone else may have done so as well in a different post. (I can’t be arsed to look and it doesn’t matter for my point anyway.) It’s not as if those of us paying attention were unaware that a dead Brewha could nerf the vig.

Bad idea. Because even if the switch holder dies, the scum have a blocker, and so they can block Batman indefinitely and kill him at their leisure. And if ToeJam was targeted by batman, that’s no guarantee that the scum hit the switch to save ToeJam. They might have stopped him regardless. And we’d have to lynch ToeJam regardless. Plus you even concede that they might have turned it off in general. Because you say that Batman is effectively Vanilla now until the other switchholder dies. Why? Wouldn’t the scum turn Batman back on once ToeJam is dead if they’re leashing him just to save Toejam? Your logic makes no sense.

If Batman did come out and said he didn’t target ToeJam, would you still vote ToeJam?

If we want ToeJam’s reveal, why don’t we just lynch him? We end up with the same result as with your plan, and we keep a power role hidden.

I know Nanook already replied to this, but I agree and was thinking the same thing.

WoW on DiggitCamara

I’m finally getting around to this. Not much here though… pretty quiet, but still participating… maybe just enough to avoid suspicion? 15 posts and we are on D3. 5 posts from D1 and 10 from D2.

I didn’t like the scum slip theory when I was trying to catch up. I can see how it was misleading, but it shouldn’t have been a reason to vote in and of itself… of course hindsight is 20/20 so I’ll let the townie vote go for now.

So you are still suspicious of Colby, but now that there is a bandwagon on him you feel it will be okay to disown that lynch from your voting record and move on to SNF for “defending” another player? I defend other players all the time… not because I know their alignment, but because I disagree with the argument against them. Why sit back and let bad arguments get people lynched?

Notice SNF’s defense is now a slight defense, but the vote stays.

Now its a very slight defense. And semantics. I agree the unvote didn’t sit right with me.

That’s all the D1 posts… 5 posts… in 5 posts Diggit managed to vote, unvote, switch votes from the person she thought was scum to someone defending the person she thought was scum, and backpedal twice. Pretty busy for 5 posts, but still doesn’t address anything else in the game, doesn’t even comment on Lakai… or ToeJam.

Admits the case is really weak, but continues the vote anyway. Still no comment on Lakai or ToeJam.

I guess you gotta find some reason to justify votes right, that other case wasn’t really holding up so I guess it needed reinforcement?

I actually agree with this post. I think it might be why we have been seeing an uptick in power role deaths, there were a lot of people claiming or saying things that revealed they either didn’t have a switch or that they weren’t one role or another or just flat out that they were nilla town. Each comment narrows the pool. I’m assuming “disclaimers” was supposed to be “claimers”.

More switch talk.

Not a Masonic group… masons typically have private chat and are still part of town. They are a cult with a weirdo power and a survival wincon. But you know, thats a better vote than the SNF vote, IMHO.

In case it isn’t obvious because of the lack of quotes within quotes, the point here was that the 3P winton wasn’t consistent with the Roles doc. It is, Diggit was misinterpreting the roles doc which states that exclusive 3P wins are superseded by town or scum wins. Crys claimed a nonexclusive wincon.

I disagree with this assessment of the 3P situation…

Somehow missed Lakai subbed back in.

Townies coming back from the dead bugs Diggit apparently…. its not that hard, just disregard D1 when assessing Lakai v2.0.

And that is it. At least Diggit commented on the switches and the 3P. And kind of comments on Brewha, in the sense that they seem to take Brewha at his word and mentions he probably has a target on his back. No comment on ToeJam or those who call for his head. And the vote stays on a claimed cultists… which I disagree with. We need to kill scum and use the 3P as population padding and hopefully have them working with us to eliminate scum… for now. Lynching them is a step closer to the scum wincon not towns.
All in all I don’t like it. I’m not a huge fan of the case against ToeJam, who has the most votes right now I believe… but maybe Digit will come in and vote for Crys or Sach or SNF and get an alternate wagon rolling. Or maybe they will finally comment on the ToeJam situation on the third Day of people calling for his head. Who knows. I don’t even think there is enough here to warrant a vote. Just a few awkward votes and unvotes that ping me. I guess I’ll keep looking and keep an eye on Diggit.

I was looking back at N2 and found this a bit interesting. I missed it the first go through, but knowing that by the numbers scum gain progress toward their wincon by killing 3P, town do not consider this post

Pleo, do you still feel this way?

I’m liking this as a reason for Lynch better than my reasoning against DiggitCamara or the case against ToeJam. Unless Toejam feels the same way. I’ll have to go look. If he does it tips the scales for me.
I am also suspicious of…

Thing Fish, but I feel I may be letting myself become OMGUS biased.

Prof P. for previous discussed reasons

Koldanar for only really participating in D2 by calling out non-participants.

But I haven’t had the opportunity to look very closely at them yet. So…

** Vote Pleonast **

But I’m gonna keep looking at others.

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I just wanted to comment on this to point out that there was no “could” about it. That part of the discussion took place at Night, after Brewha had flipped town. Which means he was telling the truth and was holding the batswitch.

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My current thoughts:

ToeJam

The Most Likely To Be Scum and the one whose reveal will be the most useful in interpreting Day 1. His insistence that he is the most likely target for the scum kill and his notion that vanillas should target themselves were just bizarre. He needs to go next.
Idle Thoughts

Started Day 2 with a vote on ToeJam for very poor reasons

ToeJam was indeed looking like scum, but the reasoning is terrible and there is good scum motivation for this vote:

  1. As the previous Day’s runner up, ToeJam was a reasonable possibility of being lynched, so look good by being one of the early voters
  2. ToeJam was also looking a real possibility of a modkill, so a good way to waste the lynch

Idle has also been extremely quiet, which is is very atypical of his play as town.
Boozahol Squid

Very noisy, but very little substance. One post I particularly disliked was from Day 2:

It was a reasonable question with a completely unhelpful response: “I’ve got my vote down, I don’t need to do any more”

Also, he is way too keen on lynching all the claimed cultists, even though they would be mislynches.
**Enderw24 **

I agree with Angel and Nanook. This looks like an attempt to cast suspicion on the claimed cult. As for “Why would the mods have so much explanation in the rules about potential exclusive win conditions for 3rd party if there wasn’t one in the game?”, it’s quite simple: there is almost certainly some hostile third party(s) in the game. It does not mean that every third party is necessarily hostile.

So that’s

**ToeJam
Idle Thoughts
Boozahol Squid
Enderw24 **
I’m happy to vote for any of these. For toDay

Vote ToeJam

There have been suggestions of “Lynch the Lurker”, but that is unlikely to work. There are several players who could be considered lurkers. Townie votes on them will probably be spread out, which makes it easy for scum to place just a few votes to ensure that a non scum is lynched. So any concerted attmept to lynch in the lurker pool is almost certainly going to hit town.

Lurkers are best left to the vig. But with the vig seeming to be nerfed, that is looking unlikely.

Responding to thisas I catch up the posts made overnight.

I confirm I am not LUTHA.

I am Town.

… yes I know I would say that, wouldn’t I? (Unless I was a Jester and needed to die by Day 3.)

Back to reading D3.