I want to address cultist survival. It’s not going to be easy. We started with 55 players. For mafia to win, the maximum number of total remaining players is 14 (an intact scum team of 7, plus 7 other players that are not an intact scum team). The cultists would have to survive 41 kills and be one of 7 players remaining that aren’t on the winning scum team. The winning scum team will have killed 41 of 48 hostile (to that team) players. That’s the earliest possible scum win condition and it’s likely to go a little deeper than that if scum were to win, and cultist chances would continue to drop off.
It’s a little less horrible if town were to win. Let’s assume we get a clean sweep from here on out. (Perhaps a little optimistic and that’s a little bit of an understatement.) There are 47 players remaining, and 14 scum. A clean sweep with no scum kills prevented, no scum cross kills, and no additional kills (e.g. vig) would mean 14 lynched scum and 28 scum team kills for 32 total kills, leaving 15 survivors who would all be cult, town, or other third party. That’s a little better than the numbers in the scum+cult win scenario (41 kills, only 7 non-scum), but it relies on some pretty generous assumptions. Reality is going to make the cult’s survival chances lower than that. (The better chance in this scenario is why I strongly believe cultists should be trying to help town at this phase. It would also be very difficult for them to coordinate with scum without scum outing themselves.)
The stated cult numbers (5) and win conditions (one or more surviving cultists) seem balanced. The identification power seems slightly helpful to avoid cross lynching other cultists, but trying to match up is pretty much shooting in the dark for them.
Multiple people have pointed out how flawed and misinformed your reasoning is, but you continue to insist (know) that Crys is lying without having reviewed the whole context. This is bad play. Go back and read her claim and sachertorte’s claim with his breadcrumbs. When you understand how that played out, we can have this discussion. Until then, your “knowledge” is bollocks.
I looked at the Brewha voters. It seems to me that it would easy for scum to hide behind the lynch all liars reason, without actually looking at Brewha’s lie or what the alleged scum motivation for it might be.
The problem for me was that there were so many of them and none of them stood out as scummier than most of the others.
What did stand out on re-read was Sachertorte’s vote. It certainly does not look like someone who wants to be identified as a fellow cultist. I agree with Ender that something looks off in the whole cult business.
Brewha votes: 373 Bufftabby thinks Brewha’s plan is a scum gambit 417 Bufftabby unvotes when Chronos explains that the plan was his and not Brewha’s 538 Chronos points out the lie and votes 543 Biotop hops on 556 BoozySquid votes with “It’s not the best case in the world, but it’s by far the best case I’ve seen in this game so far.” 575 Cookies. Willing to switch to Crys if needed. 576 Sachertorte. “I actually wasn’t all that upset about brewha’s lie, but the Crys thing makes me really want brewha dead. Mainly because Crys really doesn’t want brewha dead.” 621 Hooker votes because the switch PM does not match Crys or CaptK’s. 622 Bufftabby. Brewha fessed up to lie when called out on it. 638 Drain Bead. Clear liar who should have fessed up to the lie immediately. 646 RavenThief. Inconsistencies with when the switch PM arrived. Doesn’t match. Earlier lie. 699 Paul. liar who had a very scummy motivation to lie 716 Khameleon. PMs don’t match. Lie. 720 Lakai doesn’t like the explanation for the lie. 726 Meeko 730 ToeJam 743 Crys 767 JohnnyB lynch all liars 794 ProfP 909 Biotop unvotes. Votes ToeJam. 913 Sachertorte unvote. Votes ToeJam. “I have a terrible vote on brewha. I was trying to blend in…” 947 BillMc prefers Brewha over Crys 956 TotalLost 988 Hooker unvotes Brewha. Votes ToeJam. 1002 RavenThief unvotes. Votes ToeJam. 1033 InnerStickler
Sorry phone posting and messed it up. The two reasons I had were 1. Easy win con 2. Easy fake claim if we accept the cultists as being legit.
Bear in mind they don’t all have to survive til end of game, just one of them. It seems like a terribly non interactive role as there are no real goals
OOG : Just a quick note, during the windy storm this week, a large tree fell in our back yard, and we are dealing with the fallout of that at home right now - I will be fairly quiet today. I’m really sorry about this guys.
Think Fish’s analysis of paulwhoisaghost is viscerally satisfying, but I question whether scum would go to such great lengths to Lynch brewha and then be so hypocritical about it afterwards. I’m of the opinion that scum were more like “Holy shit! They are willing to Lynch the person claiming to hold the batman switch. Might as well let them.”
Because he probably read the rules that stated all powers resolve at end of Day or at end of Night and had no reason to think his role was different?
I really don’t have any clue why Sario was killed when he was; it doesn’t make any sense from a game mechanics point of view. Plenty of people submit their action before end of Day or End of Night. In fact, that’s the usual requirement of a Power. Also we are usually afforded the option to change their mind or whatever as the Day or Night progresses. I don’t see why Sario was treated differently, nor do I see any reason for Sario to believe he would be treated differently either. He probably put in his action and planned to claim near end of Day.
Our win condition is not easy. Survivor roles pretty much depend on convincing town that one isn’t a threat without any way to prove it. I’m not sure if you noticed, but that’s not exactly easy. That we are 5 is slightly better, but the game will not likely end with greater than 10 players remaining, and that’s my being optimistic. The chances of one of us being one of those 10 is not so hot.
I think I’ve been participating plenty in this game. Way more than other players.
It doesn’t look like someone who wants to be identified as a fellow cultist because it was posted by someone who didn’t want to be identified as a fellow cultist. I’ve explained my thought process before, but to review:
At the time of brewha’s lie discovery and Crys’s really weird and totally unintelligible role claim (I’m cultist, and I was all WTF are you doing? Why try to save brewha when you don’t even know brewha is in our cult!!!) So yes, that post with the brewha vote was absolutely posted to distance myself from Crys. I thought Crys was going to be lynched as part of a double Lynch. Look at when that post happened versus the mood at the time. At the time I was also more than a little bit pissed at Crys. Later, when cooler heads prevailed and Town showed clear-headedness with respect to Crys, I decided that claiming was a viable and mutually beneficial option.
It’s weird to me that Sario/Wiz didn’t get a chance to change his mind - especially since we all believed all powers (and thus whatever resulted from the use of a power) resolved at Dusk.
Did Sario know it was InstaDeath when the order was put in for the last spell?
Welcome to the game of mafia! But seriously, I’m spending as much time as I can on this game. I either post after skimming, or not post after skimming.
Thing Fish said “It reads to me like you could be scum advising your teammates on how to play and/or hinting to them that you are that seventh guy who didn’t show up to chat”. That implicitly states that Scum do not learn the identity of all their teammates on their secret board. Otherwise, why would a Scum player need to hint they were the seventh guy who didn’t show up to chat?
Only a player who has read a secret board would know it doesn’t reveal all their teammates. It’s not stated anywhere in the rules. Thus, Thing Fish has revealed they’ve read a Scum secret board, and so must be Scum. This is a slam-dunk case of perfect information slippage.
Of course I started the conversation! That’s the whole point of discussing Scum–so that they inadvertently make mistakes when discussing themselves.
I’m not sure why you’re trying to downplay evidence from an earlier Day.
Lynching claimed cultists ToDay is anti-Town, because even if they’re lying they can’t win now and we really need to eliminate Scum. Anyone advocating lynching them ToDay is not helping us, but could be Scum or misguided Town.
Lynching cultists when 1) at least one has been alignment-verified, 2) exactly five players are known cultists, and 3) they can cross-confirm membership so no Scum could falsely claim membership, would be anti-Town and extremely pro-Scum. Anyone advocating lynching them at that point is definitely Scum.
If one or more of the conditions in the previous paragraph has not been met, and we’ve eliminated a good number of Scum (maybe half of them, but we’ll be in a better place to evaluate later), then we’ll have to start considering that their claim is false. And likely start lynching them.
**I honestly thought that he did when he pm’ed me, but he told me after I apologized to him that he did not. He also said he didn’t mind, though, that he “poofed” mid-Day. I think he was suiciding and his role provided a way.
I think we don’t need to discuss this any more until post-game or in a spoiled forum. **
It looks like we are still circling on ToeJam, who has had some weird play, has screwed with mods, and has made some strange claims re: vig.
I think there is larger consensus that leaving Cult alone for now makes sense in order to hunt for scum, but I see some heated side discussion on the topic.
Where and how are we searching for scum? My first area of opportunity this week is Idle Thoughts. I asked an earlier question about Idle Thoughts that I don’t think I’ve seen answered. It regarded his “normal” play. Does his play in this game in any way match his normal play? Are we offered any reason for this? Is this in any way an indicator of possible scum behavior on his part, or is he just another member of the over-whelmed bottom?
** Idle ** always claims D1- ** Idle ** does not like being Scum ever - He has asked for a sub this game AND ( meta sorry) he has been vocal elsewhere online
I conclude ** Idle ** Is Not Town
I would like an explanation from Sach. This does look incongruent with being on the same team as Crys.
I stated pretty clearly yesterDay, my position regarding 3P roles. Namely I don’t trust them ever. That being said, I have been moved by arguments that killing them now does nothing to advance our wincon and does advance scum’s. We should have lynched **Crys **yesterday to validate the claims while we had the opportunity of 2nd lynch, but that is neither here nor there at this point. I doubt scum will target either of them for their kills though, and now they have a pool narrower by 2 from which to choose a victim. We will have to kill one of them at some point. I have not changed my mind or flip-flopped my position on 3P, I’m simply allowing that we aught to wait till later to hang one of them to test their claims.
I hate that **Sario **poofed himself, but he may have done us at least a small favor. There are likely 7 people who are protected today from the Mafia/Wolf kill depending if he decided to cast Day or Night protection spells (and the Outrider/Hitman won’t get him either - since Sario is already dead). I’m assuming random-ish because if he had taken the time to read the game and thoughtfully consider who to use his spells on he would have just participated instead of magic-ing away all his life force in a Hocus-Pocus Suicide.
I’m concerned about the **ToeJam *wagon and lethargic case against him. It really only boils down to he wasn’t playing, then at end of day he tried to play and catch up, posted some defensive stuff and there was a weird Vanilla Town plan in there. It sounds right now like much ado about nothing. ToeJam might BE scum, but I haven’t seen anything that pings me as scummy other than his sparse participation (which is entirely explainable by a career that isn’t known for lots of free time). There are a lot of other people that fit that bill as well, with top of that list being Idle Thoughts and Hal Briston.
NETA: I see now on preview that **Sach **has addressed the **TexCat **quote above. I’m leaving it all in there anyway since it was a question I had and I want a record of it for myself. I’m satisfied enough with his answer.
*I’m not going to say what his profession is since that’s his business to tell or keep private as he sees fit. I will admit that because I do know, there is bias on my part regarding his participation level.
I like **Captain Klutz **'s list of suspects in #118.
**Idle Thoughts ** has been on my radar ever since he did not post a role claim in his very first post. I know he said he was busy, but how hard would it be to post he was VT? Too busy to post 4 words? I feel like he might have been conflicted about what to do. If he had a power role I think he would claim it. If he was LUTHA, I can understand the conflict, but not the disappearance afterwards.
In his last game on Giraffe, **Idle Thoughts ** said he hated being Scum and would ask the mods not to give him such a role or sub out if he was given Scum. He made a comment in one of his few posts in this game about maybe needing to be subbed.
I think suspicion on **Idle Thoughts **for these meta reasons is sound.