I agree that a snowball is unlikely. If we had a watcher, I could see a snowball when they watch brewha and see who visited, but we have a trackers who have to target a person and see if they perform an action. Not knowing who to target, they will be hit and miss.
Red and Inner. they voted * the same Town Player * early-ish with no other context/content .
I included you and PCM for completeness since it was part of the origional post
I clearly didn’t have enough coffee. We have a watcher, right there on page 1.
Pleonast, I honestly don’t have any idea what your case against me is, and it doesn’t seem as though anyone else does either.
My case against you is as follows: in this Night Zero post:
it appears to me that you could be scum trying to persuade your teammates to adopt this strategy of not reading the scum boards and finding out who their teammates are, effectively playing as SKs. Failing that, to breadcrumb to them that you are the “missing” member of their team. I said that I couldn’t think of any reason for you to make that post if you were Town.
Then, you voted for me. I initially thought that you thought I had PIS because I assumed that once the scum went on the scum board, they would find out who each other were. I thought this was about the lamest case imaginable, but the more you try to explain it, the more confusing it gets.
Here’s your most recent attempt (snipped from omnibus post). I’ve bolded what appears to me to be the basic point you’re making.
I’m posting all this not to get Pleonast’s vote off me but to bring everyone’s attention once again to his scumminess. I don’t want to be one of those two guys with one-off votes on each other, but I will make this last attempt to get his wagon rolling before I move on.
Ah, sorry, I misread your post. Let me look back at their posts.
I’m already suspicious of Inner Stickler, via post 109 today :
Way to throw a suspicion out there without any supporting info. Could he justify this? (…he may have, I’m still reading).
I was viewing it as a series of if/then results that, as we progress and learn more, could be useful. It’s not unlike any other gain of information from any deaths or power roles, it’s just that more people would be aware of the potentials of what’s going on in the background and that can influence future decisions and information deciphering.
Did that make sense to anyone but me? Normally, a vanilla only knows what’s in the thread and revealed by mods. A power only knows that plus their own results. If we as a group know more going into a Night, that spreads out what information we can all use and potentially winkle out smaller details as they match or conflict with the information that’s been shared.
Essentially, I was viewing it as similar to someone being able to tell us the result of a town power without anyone having to role claim. This may be naive, but that’s how I was viewing it. And it’s hard to predict exactly how information can fit together, but I’ve seen very small details break open a lot of information in the past.
Well, we also don’t know where the other switch is or what it does, right? It could be town or scum. We’re assuming scum, I guess? But couldn’t it just be random?
To add to the complexity, they both also can turn off all buttons.
Can we please clarify what we’re trying to achieve and how we will achieve it? I appreciate Brewha’s openness and willingness to sacrifice but I see a lot of ways we’ll learn exactly nothing from this, unless we lay it out very carefully.
it pinged me too-
In the Roles.doc the Scum PM’s do not include a list of teammates- But of course they would not- they would have been redacted Just like the link to their off board.
It would be natural to assume ( if Town)- when reading the public roles that the information was, indeed there but redacted for that purpose and move on.
Now IF Scum get the link but Not a list of the others in their PM…Scum would know that .
I may have not made myself clear, ask away
**
Vote Pleonast **
I think there is PIS there
The size of this game definitely brings some unusual dynamics, in that a game of the typical size won’t usually be both difficult to keep up with * and * plagued by lurkers, but here we are. I think that we should be aiming into the lurking-but-not-quite-getting-modkilled pile, but there are a lot of players in there. I’ll try to go through some of them when I have time.
The people who voted for ToeJam on Day One made meaningful votes for a player who might be scum. That’s a tiny, tiny point in their favor, but I need to start narrowing the field somehow, so I don’t think I’ll look at any of them Today. FOS on the people who voted him first thing Today, though, because it’s looking like he’s going to be the Mod’s problem, not ours, which makes that a very easy and lazy vote.
As far as the multilynch, I don’t think Town, collectively, can or should use any elaborate schemes to manipulate the mechanism. When we get close to EoD, everyone individually will have to look at the range of possible outcomes and vote strategically to achieve the best one; you know, just like we already do.
The situations where it should affect a vote are fairly rare, as far as I can see. If you think that the vote leader is Scummy McWolfington, but that the runner up is also sorta scummy, you would want to vote in such a way that they were both lynched, not necessarily for the one you thought was scummier. In any other scenario, where you think one or both of them are likely Town, you should vote for the scummiest just as you ordinarily would. Just like the first lynch, the second lynch is good if you think the person being lynched is scum, and not if you don’t.
I’m OK with the brewha plan. It has Batman shooting at a player who might possibly be scum and almost certainly isn’t a Town power role, which is all I ask from a mandatory Vig.
I do see a ton of what if’s involved with the batman plan. But, no matter what, I think the results of Batman targeting me tonight will give the town more useful info than if I had stood by, said nothing, and decided whether or not to flip the switch on my own without being accountable.
I’m not concerned about someone role blocking me since it’s already been clarified that my ability to flip a switch is not a power and has nothing to do with my role.
I’d also like to point out (as it was mentioned upthread) that we have no idea if any of the people killed up to this point had switching powers. So, we can’t assume they did and that we weren’t informed.
My death would verify whether or not we are notified of switching powers of the dead.
Here’s the tricky thing though - what if my powers to switch move on to someone else? Obviously it’d be good to know that - but would the person that acquired the power really want to come forward to let us know?
Early in D1, I felt like JB was molehill mountaineering, so I reviewed what he’s said. This is a summary of his D1 posts, paraphrased with some minor commentary by me in parenthesis. Votes obtained from TexCat’s D2.42 Post.
[spoiler]
Johnny Bravo:
Day One
36 - Votes Normal Phase for NP calling JB scummy for ignoring NP’s edit in N0 thread
[Meeko votes JB in Post 41)
46 - To Meeko - disagreement about scum tells in general
56 - To Meeko - disagreement about scum tells in general
58 - To Sunny - discussion of usefulness and validity of D1 votes
60 - To Meeko - Disagreement with Meeko on the validity of D1 votes, says he can ignore Meeko (this does not happen)
62 - Disagreement with Meeko on the validity of D1 votes
83 - To Normal Phase - says NP’s calling out of JB for not calling NP out is fishing.
84 - fluff
[Meeko unovtes JB in Post 130]
222 - Not buying train on Colby
246 - FOSes Meeko for posting in N0 thread
256 - To bufftabby - states posting in other thread is anti-town
[bufftabby ovtes JB in Post 259]
265 - To bufftabby - accuses her of voting him for answering the question she directed at him.
281 - To bufftabby - JB disagrees with her case on JB. (Her case is that when JB answered her question, she didn’t like the answers and thought they were scummy, which I can see as a case.)
352 - To Meeko - accepts that posting in wrong thread was an innocuous mistake but insists it is anti-town (I agree with both points - it was a mistake and it hurt town by muddying the timeline [JB’s poing] and serving as a distraction)
357 - Discussion of phrasing and soft defense of Colby
360 - Agreement with TexcCat about using board presence as evidence
366 - To sachertorte - JB doesn’t seem to feel bufftabby’s vote on him is justified
391 - To Guiri - discussion of FOS and shades of gray in accusation strength
419 - To sachertorte - "If it’s helpful, I don’t really understand my exchange with Meeko either.
[septimus votes JB in Post 488]
498 - To Nanook, defends attack on Meeko because posting in the wrong thread is anti-town, says some are making too much of the FOS, rejects “Meeko’s gonna Meeko” meta
572 - fluff
629 - emoji responding to accusations of voting Republican (fluff)
686 - To Total Lost, asks for distinction between claim and soft claim
753 - JB says he’s going out of town. Says he will evaluate non Normal Phase cases and potentially move his vote. (He doesn’t move it.)
[septimus unvotes JB in Post 993]
[bufftabby unovtes JB in Post 1094]
Day 1 Ends, Night 2 begins
1350 - I’m back, catching up. At least we have Understudy. Claims Town.[/spoiler]
Looking back, I don’t get the sense that JB was trying to make a case from nothing that I initially did. There’s plenty of jousting with others (most notably Normal Phase, bufftabby, and Meeko), but on reread, it doesn’t come off too badly. I think the very early vote on Normal Phase was barely justified, and I wish JB had revisited as he said he might in 753. Guiri’s questioning offers something of an escape in D1.385 where he suggests there needs to be a new abbreviation that’s less than FOS. JB seems to (kinda sorta) eventually comes around to this and that FOS may have been too heavy handed (or interpreted as more weighty than he intended) in Posts 391 and 498.
There are some townie things in there minor defense of Colby and the relative high content to fluff ratio.
I’m amused that he dismisses Meeko as ignorable early in the day but continues to joust with him throughout the day.
I’m not voting Johnny Bravo based on my review. D2 has been solidly town from JB, IMO, and I’m putting him back in the “no lean” category.
Regarding ToeJam - I still have TJ firmly in the scum column. I’m inclined to let the mods do the work for town. If TJ does show up, I’m eager to see a defense.
Yes. Sorry. Force of habit.
Would you say that someone mentioning that Idle always claims Day 1 is neither an accurate nor honest assessment of Idle’s behavior? Even though, without fail, Idle has always claimed on Day 1?
Anyway, on to the whole Brewha switch thing that as soon as I understood what he was saying I saw the immediate and most noticeable flaw. But I’ll quote Biotop here since he does a complete analysis:
[Old School]I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.[/Old School]
I came in to mention point 5. Though, I believe Batman only has to worry about the Consigliere, since the Wolf watcher is a day watcher. (And the color of the Mafia role power reads like a tracker although it says that you see what’s done to the tracked target, not what they do.)
We have the vig target brewha, and the Mafia instantly know who the vig is. Granted, the town watcher could also watch brewha and find out who the Consigliere is, but at the same time the Consigliere will know who the watcher is. At the end of it all, Mafia are up one power role in knowledge. Even if a scum is outed and removed from the game, this shakes out as a net bonus for the Mafia, IMO.
Of course, the basement dweller can nullify the Consigliere ability (which Chronos realizes once he figures out the problem with the scum watchers). Which if we still decide to do this plan is the only way we should do it, but that means we’re forcing the basement dweller’s hand on a one-shot power. Additionally, the Wolves will know automatically that their watcher can’t do a thing because we pretty much have told them the dweller power is activating for this cycle. (Minor issue, but still not anti-town.)
Batman would be silly to out himself to Mafia for the chance at finding out something at this point nebulous about the switch mechanics. Heck, we could WIFOM the whole thing between the Watcher, the Basement Dweller, and Batman. But we shouldn’t. That’s way too many power roles involved in a shaky scheme which even if it all works out well doesn’t seem to have a payoff that’s worth it.
My take from this whole thing at this point is to
[color=blue]vote jsgoddess
As a parallel to the third-vote is a scum tell thing, I’m coining a new one: Third person to “Me Too!” a bad plan is a scum tell.
Brewha though of a plan based on an unforced claim that at it’s surface seems not all that bad. Chronos analyzes the shit out of the thing from different angles and outcomes, and misses a glaring problem with it. jsgoddess chimes in with the following:
It’s lazy. She just goes along with the plan without any investigation into its pitfalls.
Brewha thought of it. It’s understandable he missed some drawbacks. I think we’ve all been there where we come up with a great plan and have thought it out but because of confirmation bias or whatever we miss some glaring problems. That’s why we run it by other people.
Chronos works out some details, expanding upon what can happen. But since he’s adding more info, he still misses the major problem.
jsgoddess endorses the plan. She doesn’t examine it at all. When prompted as to why she likes it (by biotop who originally pointed out the flaws), she simply echoed the other arguments of the first two. There was no critical analyses at all.
This is exactly how the third vote thing originated from what I understand. (By the time I started playing Mafia, the third vote thing was a well-established trope and had lost most of it’s power except for the occasional unaware n00b.)
So yeah. Third endorsing of a bad plan is a scum tell.
For what it’s worth, in the previous switch games the switch died with its original owner.
Stupid formatting:
vote jsgoddess
I already didn’t get Pleonast’s case against Thing Fish. TF was making a pretty reasonable assumption that scum would read the board they were provided with. I’ve seen it happen when a scum didn’t, but it’s a reasonable assumption to make that scum will read and use the boards we know they have. But here’s the missing piece, IMO (emphasis added):
That post from Pleonast makes a lot of sense as a breadcrumb to scum who would know they were down a teammate.
vote Pleonast
Do you play on Giraffe? What’s your handle there?
(Mickey Mouse voice) Well, *all-righty *then!
vote Pleonast
I am The Mighty Quinn on Giraffe.
And on second thought, I agree with Hoopy and** Biotop**. Although we can’t know for sure, the chance that killing** brewha** would leave some anti-Town faction in sole control of the power seems too high to risk. Besides, if he is telling the truth, he will likely be targeted for a scum kill soon, and we will learn whatever there is to learn from his death.
** Meeko **
I re read your vote post, and post 200 ( where you danced with the Town/team thing) is that the one?
it changes my comment none
and while you are here- You commented on My D1 post about the “one post wonders”- have you new thoughts on that?
Here is my problem with your statement, or concern perhaps. What stops ToeJam from showing up at the last minute and stopping the mod-kill? I’ve “nominated” my second place choice for the moment, so it’s not like I’m not looking at other candidates, but I don’t want to remove the heat from ToeJam on the assumption that the mods will handle it. He has a really easy out from that. I wish we had conditional voting. Here, let me ask.
Mods - can we have conditional voting for cases like a mod kill, where we would have lynched someone, but they are killed by superior forces? Like say, ToeJam. He leads in lynch votes. He is also due to get mod killed. I want my vote to count. If he gets mod-killed, what happens to my vote? Do I get to make a second choice? Maybe a follow up question is, does mod killing happen before lynching, giving the town time to consider their actions before Day’s End?