Mafia Reunion - NIGHT ZERO

[Sario]

@ToeJam

So we have 55 players. 14 Scum. Two Factions. And 3rd Parties at play.
Assuming the Scum are equivalent, we likely have two factions of 7 each* (Yes, I realize that this may not be the case, especially if we have varying powers or abilities, and the numbers could be skewed, but lets pick an ‘easy’ set up).
Worst case scenario for us (Town) is if 7 scums on one team need to be greater than or equal to the total population. So 7 scum of one team in a pool of 14 total players would be death. Amusingly assuming we played the worst game, and lynched only townies and no scum died- scum team A could win in a pool of 14 if 7 were scum A, and 6 were scum B, and 1 townie was left.
Still, Town needs to get real antsy when we start getting down to the final 20 players, because mislynches will become a scarier possibility of blowing the game, especially when we’re at 15 players if no scum of one group has been dealt with (this does NOT factor in that each night could lead to multiple kills, so really the game could be really close to over though as soon as we’re around that 14 player mark and a mislynch could blow it for the entire town).

In addition:
55-14= 41 Non-Scum

Now, I’m always a fan of flavor. The Mods have stated that flavor isn’t a big deal. But much like our Mafioso scum up there have surmised- the Mayor died by evisceration, bullets, and Fire. The fire IS interesting… Arsonist roles certainly can be present as a “third-party”

In addition, the number 37 is interesting. 37 is not 41. And 4 “Third party Roles”… seems about fair for a game this size. We could be looking at 14 Scum, 37 Townies, and 4 3rd Party Roles.

For lack of better clues at this time, that’s just my thoughts so far…
-R

Some multi-lynch math:

Assuming 37 Town and that only town get lynched and NKed, with 3 kills per Night (Mafia, Wolves, Vig)

Day One is single lynch, but after that we could be losing 6+ Townies per Day/Night.
That means by Day 5 we could be down to 14 town which would by LYLO