Because I find it useful, and therefore think others might also:
Day 3
Night links are to the post with the Dusk reveal.
Yeah, I don’t see how we can let you sub in. I’ll pm you a bunch of links to.
So apparently Wizards go poof!
So, can someone who is better at math than me telling me how town is doing compared to random chance? I sort of feel like they should have randomly killed a non town at this point, but I’m not sure. How it going for town?
I think the outlook for town is bleak at this point. Seems like the conversation is being dominated by scum who are influencing the vote heavily.
Admittedly, I’ve only skimmed the game thread since my untimely death, but unless real town members get vocal, they’re in trouble.
Should be nine on the Prof – you missed Hockey Monkey’s vote in 367.
Should only be four on Idle – you forgot to delete ToeJam when he shifted his vote to the Prof.
You did the same with Pleo’s vote on Thing Fish – forgot to delete his old vote when he shifted to the Prof.
Should also be two votes on the Squid – Hoopy (286) and Angel (303).
All in all, I make it Prof 9, Idle 4, ToeJam 3, ender 2, Squid 2, Sachertorte 1, Pleo 1, Khameleon 1.
A full accounting would require knowledge of the origin of all of those kills, since Scum kills are more likely to hit Town than Town kills are. But if we assume one Scum kill each phase, two Lynches, two Viggings, and two mod-kills, and assume no overlap between them (which is not consistent with the actual results, but knowing why it’s not consistent would be a spoiler), then we have so far six kills that could have hit anyone, and four kills which could have hit one Scum team but not the other. If we further assume that all of those kills were made completely randomly, the chances that none of those would hit a Scum are (40/54)(39/53)(38/52)(37/51)(36/50)(35/49) * (41/48)(40/47)(39/46)(38/45). Multiplying all of that out, we find a 7.7% chance of not hitting any Scum at all yet.
Without getting into details does your extra knowledge make things look better or worse for town than that horrible number?
The main extra piece of information I have is how the Scum teams are doing. If they were relatively well-balanced, I might still think that Town has a chance (for one thing, the more Townies die, the greater the chance of Scum cross-kills as the game goes on). As it is, though, despite none of them having died yet, I think that one team is definitely playing better than the other.
A number of folks in the game are saying that both Scum factions should be focusing on attacking Town, not each other. I disagree, and think that attitude reflects an unfamiliarity with three-faction games. Yes, Scum first and foremost needs to bring down numbers, and most of the numbers available for them to bring down are Townies. But to a Scum, a kill of anyone not on their team counts exactly the same for their numbers. A kill of a Wolf advances the Mafia win condition just as much as a kill of a Townie does.
On the other hand, this is a three-faction game. In a three-faction game (of any sort), if you have a choice of where to focus your efforts, you always want to focus them on whichever of your opponents is in the strongest position. And in this game right now, the two Scum teams’ strongest opponents are each other.
And even if this weren’t true (though I think it is), Townies should be saying that it is, because it’s certainly in Town’s best interests to encourage the Scum to cross-kill.
Which is mostly moot, of course, since the Scum are no better than anyone else at distinguishing between Town and other-Scum. But it’s a matter of principle.
This is the slowest Forbidden Thread I’ve ever seen. Is that because all the dead people are off reading the spoilers instead?
No, spoiled is pretty dead too. I think the size of the game makes it hard to follow and the fact that all the dead are villagers and villagers aren’t doing so well so far lowers interest even further.
Two dead wolves now. Maybe that – especially with the extra day kill – will stir things up a bit…
Because I find it useful, and therefore think others might also:
Day 3 //// Night 3 (926)
Night links are to the post with the Dusk reveal. (Can somebody tell me how to link to individual posts, rather than pages?)
Day 2 & 3 of big games like this always have a bitbof malaise. I think because it has been a while since we have had a big one we have collectively forgotten that. I predict it will pick up, if not Day 4 then Day 5.
**jsgoddess **was my Day 1 investigation: I seemed to me that she was floating along ‘under the radar’…so I’m glad to have proof that my suspicion was well-founded.
And with her death, I am now ‘completely unspoiled’, so if we get in a bind I would be technically available to sub in…
Sadly, no subs allowed other than tonight. I need to check to see if anyone has a mod kill coming.
Sigh. Can I get a beer?
I can see myself being the Mafia kill as I was being pretty loud and seemed to have most people fooled. Not sure why** jsgoddess** would have been targeted (except maybe for her wolfy humor in referring to the late Drain Bead as having been “magically delicious”?).
Anyway, thanks for the game, Mods. Hope my furry friends can come back to win it.
Glad you played! You want in on the spoiler boards?
What, and deprive you all of the chance to laugh at my Mafia leans in this thread? Perish the thought!
Actually, what is the etiquette for dead scum in these threads? Would it be OK for me to post who I think is Mafia (thus, obviously, revealing that they aren’t Wolves)? I just wrote a post expressing an opinion about the reactions to my death, but then figured I should delete it. Guidance?
Oh, thank god. Idle’s antics definitely made me not want to play, and reading that huge thread when you don’t want to play is no fun at all.