Line starts here!
FTR, random.org made the choice, not me.
(bolding mine)
You crack me up. 
I’d be laughing harder if not for the bolded portion, which seems like a bit of a slip that you know what’s going to happen tonight. Oops!
Pull your head out of your bum. Why would scum aim for anybody in the Vanilla pool?
I have no idea, but apparently you know more about it than the rest of us do.
PS. Can you give me a hand, my head’s stuck!
I’ll help - but please don’t hold it against me, if I touch your bum…
Ahh, just what the Doctor ordered
I can’t tell if you’re being serious, or just fooling around, but I’ll bite anyway. To borrow** CatInA’**s list:
Now, we know the result of the Contested Paranoid Doc, so let’s rearrange the list a bit:
Uncontested Roles
Almost Human - Politican
DiggitCamera - Vigilante
Mhaye - Sarah Connor
OAOW - Commuter
Rysto - Bus Driver
Total Lost - Doctor
OreDigger77 - Paranoid Doc
Claimed vanilla
CatInASuit
Cookies/Zeriel
Santo Rugger
Shadowfacts
NAF - Scum, with at least 2 of the vanilla being scum.
So, lynching somebody in the Vanilla pool gives us a 2/4 chance of lynching scum.* Therefore, lynching somebody in the uncontested pool gives us a 1/6 chance of lynching scum. Why would the scum help us out by making the odds 2/3 and 1/7, instead. It’d be ludicrous, and is the whole premise of why we all name claimed in the first place. Do you really not understand that, or are you just toying with me to get me to use the time that I would have spent building a case against you to try and explain simple arithmetic and odds to you? I’m pretty sure “the rest of us” understand it, please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.
*Possibly 3/4, but I doubt that’s the case. WiFoM and all, but it doesn’t seem like a remarkably intelligent move.
*Assuming there’s a kill Tonight.
Well, I am having a little fun with you today (as I think you are with me), but I was serious about that comment. I understand your logic, and - if you can believe this - I agree with you. In my opinion, it wouldn’t make sense for scum to target a Vanilla tonight. But I don’t know what they know, and I think it’s dangerous to make assumptions in these games. So while I think it is probable that they won’t kill Vanilla tonight, it’s certainly not out of the question. Who the hell knows?
What struck me was the certainty of your comment.
I have fun everyday. You should feel privileged to be part of my fun having. 
My comment was so certain because, well, I’m pretty certain they wouldn’t target a Vanilla. It’d be a bad move all around; it’d increase their likelyhood of getting one of their own lynched the next day, all the power roles would still be around, and they’d basically be giving us the opportunity to avoid a mislynch in the smaller pool. I have no respect for the scum, but I don’t think they’re stupid. So, yeah, I’m quite certain.
You agree with my logic, you don’t think it would make sense either; but if I’m not around Tomorrow, the town will know for a fact that at least 2/3 of the rest of the pool are scum, so my making a case against one of them right now isn’t going to be a game breaker (or even a game changer, for that matter).
kicks ShadowFacts in the bum, and sends him back onto the playing field
I don’t have a great read on any of our four vanillas but we know that 2 of them are scum. We now know that NAF is scum unfortunately one of the power role pool is scum (1/6).
I think that picking out of the vanilla pool for the backup votes is the way to go but it is completely meaningless. Because no matter who gains those 2 and 3 votes NAF is gone. Despite NAFs gentle nudging for us to talk about who we’re voting for I don’t particularly care for reasons today. What we need to be talking about is a way to confirm the rest of us. But first things first;
Vote 1: NAF
Vote 2: Santo
Vote 3: Shadowfacts
Mhaye is claiming that he drove himself insane and is not longer verifiable. This is a good thing because everyone else should be verifiable. I believe at this point AH has been confirmed and tonight I’ll be confirmed as well. Unfortunately not much can be done toNight to confirm the rest. But tomorrow Night we could have Diggit target Rysto who can switch places between him and OAOW and after that have Diggit try and take out Total. Any how just thinking out loud in this last bit.
Problem: If I switch a Vig kill onto a Townie, the Vig has to suicide.
I agree with most of this, and upon reflection, even the last bit. If **Rysto **isn’t verified, it would totally be worth the loss of the Doc to do so. It gets a bit sticky, though, because a)it assumes our Vig will be around and b)forces the Doc to protect. If the Doc is still on our side, it would leave other roles exposed needlessly. I think this is a plan better hashed out Tomorrow. We could think of 100 scenarios Today for what we’re going to do Tomorrow Night, but when that time comes, it’s likely that 50 of those scenarios won’t be valid anymore.
Yaknow, it might be worth it for Diggit to take a shot at a Vanilla tonight. One of three things would happen:
Oredigger is still town: Diggit won’t die.
Oredigger is scum, Diggit kills a scum. We lose Diggit, and kill Oredigger and scum, a 2-1 net gain.
Oredigger is scum, Diggit kills a town. Well, that would suck, and we’d lose **Diggit **(who we were going to lose anyway), and we’d also gain a scum. We’d have a basicaly 1-1 trade (since **Diggit **was going to die anyway), but what we’d also do is almost guarantee a solid lynch the next two Days. I’ll try to run the actual numbers on a pure probability standpoint if I get a chance this evening, but at a glance, they look decent.
He can’t can he? He’s taking a potshot at himself Tonight.
NO - the Doc says: leave that cute bum alone - I’ll take care of it!!
This time I’ll get it right:
**
- NAF
- Zeriel
- CatInASuit
**
Oh. I thought he could do his requested action plus his mandatory one?
Not that I’m aware.
This role has been described as working like Pleo’s Vig; I’ve always understood that if the Vig in that game killed a Townsperson they had to kill themselves the Night after that was mod-revealed, and certainly couldn’t kill someone else as well.
Also remember, that was my role pre-reset, so I’ve seen the PM.
Not quite if OAOW is town then the commuter power will prevent the kill but even if OAOW was driven insane on Day 3 instead of Mhaye then we can confirm the Doc the next Night to prevent the kill.
Well, that makes four relevant questions (which may have been answered before, but still):
**
- Can Sarah (aka MHaye) target herself for madness? In which case
- Does she lose her powers permanently?
- Does protection by a doc (any doc) prevent the Vig’s (aka myself) suicide at all? Or
- Does said protection only delay the Vig’s suicide?**