Mafia--T2: Behind the Scenes

The Game Room
141

OK, so let’s start with the basics. This is the first game we’ve played in a while with no third-party elements at all. That simplifies analysis of the game situation.

There are 22 players in this game, 17 townies and 5 scum. Ignoring all powers for a moment, we would have five "safe’ mislynches (lynches of Townies); the sixth mislynch would result in a loss.

There are two putatively pro-Town killing elements. By my figures (and someone else feel free to tell me if I’m wrong), a Vig has to maintain a 1:1 ratio of scum to Townies killed just to break even. In other words, if a Vig kills at Night, and alternates between Town and Scum kills, we will have the same number of mislynches (6) before we lose. If the Vig kills more Town than Scum, no matter how many Scum he actually kills, our number of allowable mislynches will decrease. Of course, we gain advantage from Vig kills - we get more information for analysis - but this is worth remembering for both of our Vigs, who both are evidently optional, not mandatory, Vigs.

Neither the politician nor John Connor will affect the mislynch situation. Sarah Connor won’t either, but if she’s alive on Day Six, most of our living power roles will probably not have their powers anymore.

The Commuter probably can buy us half a mislynch. The doctors should earn us a half mislynch between them.

The Jester scum will probably be lynched before there are 12 people left. We have to recognize that, and be prepared for recruitment. Lynching the Jester, simply put, will count as a mislynch, because the result will be the same - after the lynch, the number of scum will stay the same and the number of Townies will decrease by one. Thus the Jester balances out the Commuter + the Doctors.

The role blocker and bus driver, might net us half a misynch between them, if they play very well.

Which leaves us back at about five safe mislynches and six to lose.

Except for the T-1000.

The thing is, if the T-1000 manages to mimic either of our Vigilantes, thus earning a bonus Night kill, we’re in deep shit. Three bonus scum Night kills cuts our allowable mislynches in half.

142

I’ll behave - promise! (you’re quite scary you know!)

143

I’m concerned about that to an extent, too, and about being - unsporting, for want of a better word. I just don’t know how to get around this stuff; it’s out there now, for better or for worse.

144

That’s what I was going for.

MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

145

If the T-1000 imitates the Suicidal Vig and kills a Townie, must he commit suicide?

146

Sure, I do. If Blaster Master is scum, we’re all screwed completely. I barely understand the Borda Count thing, but I am vaguely aware that it could be readily used by someone who understands numbers to manipulate the outcome of voting in ways that are much more difficult to tease out.

Think how hard it’s been to analyze voting patterns when each player got one vote. Now imagine it’s Day Four, and we’re trying to figure out how the hell Player X wound up lynched back on Day Two, and it turns out it’s because somebody threw him on the end of their vote list just to get a complete list, which put him over the top. Is that scummy? Not inherently; we’re all going to wind up having to cast #3 votes for people we don’t consider scummy, just because it’s rare to have three strong candidates in a Day. But it could easily be used by scum to manipulate outcomes in subtle ways.

147

As far as town killing factors, the bus driver can also potentially hijack and redirect a scum kill power.

148

Sure. But he/she can also potentially hijack a Vig kill that was headed for scum and redirect it onto Town, or hijack a protection on a player that needed it and redirect it onto someone who isn’t a target.

One thing I’m learning from the various efforts at game design in which I’ve been involved is that Pro-Town powers are usually not as powerful as they seem, because absent perfect information the holders of those roles are inevitably going to make mistakes that counterbalance their successes.

149

Here’s what would happen.

Night 3: Assassain T-1000 imitates suicidal vig.
Night 4: Assassain T-1000 uses vig power on town. Assassain T-1000 imitates someone else.
Night 5: Assassain T-1000 uses someone elses powers.

So no.

150

If the protection is redirected so is the kill.

151

Heh, I appreciate the vote of confidence in my math skills, and I agree that this borda system makes vote analysis significantly more difficult. For instance, it’s possible that a scum can put his first vote one someone that is low in lynch points, and use his second vote on someone that is higher to try to push that wagon without using his main vote to do so. Hell, in the right situation, a scum could even use his third vote to do the same thing.

However, the advantage of a system like this is that it also forces all three votes to be justified and thus removes some of the mathematical element and reinserts a lot of the player reading element. For instance, say we have a pair of lynch candidates that are both high up there, if a new player votes, we get a lot more insight into how he feels about it. Does he think they’re pretty much the same, and thus puts the first vote on one and the second vote on another? Does he believe one to be strong and the other weak, and thus puts his first vote on the former and doesn’t put any vote on the second? IOW, this will make bandwagon analysis significantly more interesting.

For instance, did someone vote 1-2 on the two leading candidates because they really can’t tell them apart? Are they scum and know they’re both town and wanted to push both without looking suspicious?

Further, I think it will be very easy for us to look at the third vote as a throw away vote, especially on the first Day, but I do think that later on we REALLY need to force people to justify it. As long as there’s at least three scum out there, there’s no reason not to put at least some effort into putting that vote somewhere useful.

152

In that case, should a Vig ever claim before the T-1000 dies? I think that it works out worse for Town if a Vig gets imitated: the T-1000 copies them, which costs the town a half-mislynch, the scum will probably not kill him because he’s more valuable alive, which means that either the town has to lynch him(total cost: 1.5 mislynches) or he has to self-Vig(total cost: 1 mislynch).

I guess a Vig could claim, and immediately suicide if the lynch Victim that Day isn’t the T-1000.

153

This would be my guess, but maybe our illustrious mod can confirm if that is correct.

However, I was having the same thought. The bus driver can effectively act as a semi-doctor and vig. If someone looks like they’re important, they can swap them with someone they either know to not be a power role, or even someone they think is scum. The scum really don’t have a good way to combat that either because, if they target someone that is under suspicion in hopes that they’ll switch, and they don’t, they hurt themselves a bit. Similarly, if the bus driver is correct in suspecting scum, the only way to combat it is to actually target themselves.

However, a doctor is obviously a much better way of protecting someone, and because of the chance to back fire, it might be best used to try to outguess the scum and try to redirect a kill onto someone that is under suspicion. The only trouble with that is to hope that the Vigs play along and either not kill or at least not hit the obvious suspicion target, which IMO is generally a bad idea anyway.

154

All things targeting Player X would target Player Y, and vice versa. If player Y was roleblocked, vigged, healed, bribed, and asked a question by John Conner, and the bus driver switched them, all that stuff would happen to Player X instead.

155

This is a major potential issue. The T-1000 is essentially a suped up scum investigator. Usually, a vig can claim when he’s about to get lynched because it’s a mostly verifiable power, but now that carries a great risk with it. As such, I would agree that no vig should claim prior to his death, even if it means claiming vanilla and getting lynched. Remember, Vigs are just as much a liability to the town, since the chance that they’ll break even on scum kills is against us, but giving the scum an extra kill is obviously very bad.

156

Speaking of the Vigs, I would ask that they please, please be cautious in using their power, especially early in the game. I’m of the opinion that Vigs aren’t really valuable until at least the middle of the game, when there’s enough information out there to track down the scum.

157

So… how does random voting work with a Borda system?

158

Another game, with new friends and old.

Please remember that if someone has sold you don the river last game, or even one played 18 months ago, that getting your revenge on them now is not a good idea. The odds are that they’re your buddy in this game, and selling them out might be the key factor in your side losing the game.

So restrain yourself. When the evidence proving their scummitude is revealed - that’s the time to get revenge.

Sorry BlaM - They made me do it.

159

If one is inclined to do random voting, I’d do it the same way, except pick the top three names off the random list rather than just the first.

Speaking of which, while I’m generally a proponent of random voting, primarily for mathematical reasons, do to the complexity, I haven’t decided yet if it’s even worth the effort to do so.

160

**Pedescribe
When do we find out the roles of our lynch candidates and those sadly bumped off in the night. Is it delayed like in C2 or revealed on lynch/in the morning

Secondly is the bar open at night for idle chit chat, or can the town strategise at night with no voting.**