Mafia: The Conspiracy

The Game Room
641

All right, I see that I need to clarify my thinking on the Vig sach thing. Note that this entire post will be written under the assumption that sach is lying. If he’s not, this becomes a moot point and obviously we should leave sach alone. Here are the scenarios:

If the Role or Side of Lynch Victim reveals that sach is lying, then an entire Night will pass before we would have the chance to lynch sach anyway. Here are the consequences of Vigging sach, if the scum don’t choose to kill off sach(if they do choose to off sach, there is no difference to anybody)

  • There will be one extra corpse. In the worst case, this will affect us Night 3, by which time there would normally be 7 corpses, 3 blessed by the Vicar(assuming that no night-protects are successful). If we Vig someone, that makes for 8 corpses, 3 blessed. That increases the Necromancer’s chances of reanimating a corpse from about 57.1% to 62.5%. On Night 4, the increase would be from 60% to about 63.6%. So you can see that one extra corpse does not hurt us too much here.

  • It is confirmed to both the Town and the scum that there is a Vig. This makes a false Vig role-claim very dangerous. It also makes it more likely that a different false claim will pick a Role that isn’t used. This is definitely a minus for the Town.

  • We lynch somebody else Day 3. A lynch of sach, who is confirmed scum, will yield us no new information. Lynching somebody will yield us information, and that’s the most important quality in this game.
    Now, if there isn’t a Vig this actually turns out quite well for us:

  • sach gets lynched Day 3, which is the earliest he would have been lynched anyway

  • We know now that there is no Vig in the game. This removes a potential role-claim that the scum could make, making it more likely that they’ll claim a role that is in use. Now, it’s possible that the Vig would choose not to kill sach but then what good is the Vig to us anyway? If the Vig isn’t willing to kill confirmed scum then they’re just vanilla townie.
    Things get trickier if it’s the result from a night-killed player that reveals sach is lying. If we choose to leave sach alone for Day 3 and Vig him Night 3, this would have the following consequences:

  • if sach were the Vampire he’d get one extra night kill

  • we’d again confirm whether there is a Vig or not, which has the same consequences I mentioned before.

  • If there is no Vig then we lynch sach Day 4
    This was my thinking. Sorry for not filling in the gaps earlier – I guess that it wasn’t as obvious as I thought.

642

You’re right, it’s really not clear, but makes a certain amount of sense

The upshot of it being that sachertorte is dead as a confirmed scum by Day 4 if he is lying, with the added bonus of confirming if the town does have a Vigilante

If he is telling the truth, he gets left alone.

643

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
I have given sufficient information to confirm my role. At the time Pleonast reveals the Role information of amrussell and Fretful Porpentine (Beginning of Day Four), he will also reveal the Side information of tonight’s nightkills. I will happily share the Side information of these individuals prior to Day Four.
[/QUOTE]

You keep saying this, yet it is not precisely true, as myself and others have already explained in detail. I do not understand your insistence on not revealing Roles, at least in the case of scum. This post suggests that in the future you will also only reveal Sides and not Roles. Don’t you get that the fact that you are simply repeating “I have given sufficient information” with no explanation makes you look suspicious? I, and I’m certain many others, would be most appreciative if you would at least give us your thinking, even if you don’t reveal anything.

Look, I think you probably are what you say you are. I think you believe you are acting in our best interests by being silent. But these tight-lipped, almost robotic posts just aren’t getting it done. Obviously, I’m not going to vote for you, and I doubt anyone else will, at least for a few more Days. That would be foolish. But neither am I going to believe you until you are truly confirmed, and that’s not going to happen immediately by just revealing Sides. (As I said, if you get every Side right over the course of several Days, then I’ll happily come around).

(And I’m going to keep reminding everyone about this despite Pygmy’s vote on me).

644

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
No, we won’t. I don’t see the logic behind this at all. Like I said earlier. Sach could be a Cabalist. IF that is true:

  1. He says OAOW is a Cabalist. He’ll turn out to be right.
  2. He believed amrussell was a Freemason, but was not sure. So he just said Town to be safe. If amrussell is telling the truth, sach will turn out to be right.
  3. He took a guess at what Fretful was. IF that guess happens to be right, guess what? EVERYONE believes that sach is the Coroner when, in fact, he’s not.

Do I think he’s lying? Telling the truth? I have no clue. But he will NOT and NEVER be confirmed until he starts being SPECIFIC, at least to me. Someone is a Freemason? Fine. Say it.
[/QUOTE]
I think you’re ignoring or glossing over a very key point here, Idle, which is that if Sach isn’t the coroner, in all reasonable likelihood, someone else is. If that’s the case, either they’ll stay in the game (and expose Sach) or die (and their role will expose Sach). At best, Sach would buying a couple of days with a coroner role claim, and he couldn’t have assumed that at the time – because I would imagine that, were I the coroner, I would have stepped forward by now (and I’m sure many others agree).

Keep in mind that publicly divulged information helps scum too! We’re not dealing with the other Mafia games with a monolithic scum side that knows who all other scum are. They have interest in sniffing each other out, too.

While I think it’d odd, indeed quite odd, that Sach has been so cagey to explain his reasoning and has been nearly a complete nonparticipant Today, if he’s lying, we’ll find out soon enough. In the meantime I don’t think anyone’s talking his claims as gospel, so there’s no real harm in letting him hang on unless there’s a strong reason to lynch. Which there isn’t.

In any case I think that we need to start looking at not just Sach but the rest of the players. Sach isn’t going to get his lynch today. Who is? If we’re going to get our votes in early, we need to start considering this soon.

645

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
I have given sufficient information to confirm my role.
At the time Pleonast reveals the Role information of amrussell and Fretful Porpentine (Beginning of Day Four), he will also reveal the Side information of tonight’s nightkills. I will happily share the Side information of these individuals prior to Day Four.
[/QUOTE]

No, you haven’t. And it boggles my mind how you can think you have.
You have revealed the SIDES of the players. If you’re a Cabalist, it’s easy. You’d know OAOW’s side, have a good idea of amrussell’s side, and be lucky/guess right at Fretful’s side.

That’s not you being “confirmed” in any way. :dubious:
Why can’t you just say if amrussell is a really a Freemason or not? Only way I can think of is if you DON’T know if he was or not (because you don’t know the role–because you aren’t a Coroner).

646

[QUOTE=Rysto]

  • It is confirmed to both the Town and the scum that there is a Vig. This makes a false Vig role-claim very dangerous. It also makes it more likely that a different false claim will pick a Role that isn’t used. This is definitely a minus for the Town.
    [/QUOTE]

That assumes that everything happens “normally” at night. A quick look at the Rules shows that there are several variables that could throw a wrench in the plan:

  • The Vig could get blocked by the Cabal, leaving only 2 corpses and no way of knowing if one of them was Vigged
  • The Wolves could decide not to kill, leaving only 2 corpses and no way of knowing if one of them was Vigged
  • Two kills targeting the same person could leave only 2 corpses…
  • I am sure there are more that I’m not seeing

The long and the short of it is there is NO WAY to be sure what really happens at night, and we would be foolish to base decisions on those actions.

647

[QUOTE=Rysto]
There is no Doctor, only the Witchdoctor. The Witches can protect but I can’t see any other Town role being more important than the Witches themselves.
[/quote]

So nobody is ever protected in this game Nightly then? They’re just brought back to life?

But you don’t know if there’s a Vig in this game. Nobody does.
Why don’t we just confirm him instead (which is what I’m trying to do)?

If he can reveal if amrussell is a Freemason or not, then that’s great.

And how did I do that? You’re saying let’s not lynch scum in the Day, let’s let the Vig (who we don’t even know is in the game) do it.

But how does the Vig know if sach is scum or Town? :rolleyes: He’s not saying any info either way but sides. Hell, a lucky Cabalist could be right on SIDES.

Yeah, I did. I said I had vibes and pings, which is what this game is all about.

Boy, you sure are defensive over nothing, eh? Nothing if you’re really Town. It was a vote, and your first one. No death blow.

More of a reason to keep my vote where it is (as if I needed another).

648

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
In any case I think that we need to start looking at not just Sach but the rest of the players. Sach isn’t going to get his lynch today. Who is? If we’re going to get our votes in early, we need to start considering this soon.
[/QUOTE]

Couldn’t agree more. Back soon to put my money where my mouth is.

649

[QUOTE=Rysto]
If the Role or Side of Lynch Victim reveals that sach is lying, then an entire Night will pass before we would have the chance to lynch sach anyway. Here are the consequences of Vigging sach, if the scum don’t choose to kill off sach(if they do choose to off sach, there is no difference to anybody)
[/quote]

Bolding and size mine.

But you see, Sach has not given any roles yet and, from what I’ve read, refuses to do so. So there WILL be no confirmation of that. Therefore, nothing to compare it to when Pleo reveals the roles.

Well, so far, no extra corpse. Just one for scum and Vampire.

Uh, wha? :confused:

I thought the the point of the game for Town was to kill scum? How would that not be for the better?

So, what then? When it’s revealed that OAOW, amrussell, and Fretful are “Cabal, Town, and Wolf” respectively, sach will be confirmed in your eyes and mind?

Not mine. Now if he gets right on what amrussell is, that would help.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
I think you’re ignoring or glossing over a very key point here, Idle, which is that if Sach isn’t the coroner, in all reasonable likelihood, someone else is. If that’s the case, either they’ll stay in the game (and expose Sach) or die (and their role will expose Sach). At best, Sach would buying a couple of days with a coroner role claim, and he couldn’t have assumed that at the time – because I would imagine that, were I the coroner, I would have stepped forward by now (and I’m sure many others agree).

Keep in mind that publicly divulged information helps scum too! We’re not dealing with the other Mafia games with a monolithic scum side that knows who all other scum are. They have interest in sniffing each other out, too.
[/quote]

Snipped.

How? There is no info that could help scum if he’s dead. What would be the purpose of holding back his role? All sach would have to do is say “Yes, he was a Freemason” or “No, he wasn’t a Freemason”. How does THAT divulge ANY info?

650

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
Well, so far, no extra corpse. Just one for scum and Vampire.
[/quote]

…

And this is relevant how? We’ve had no confirmed scum so far, so the Vig hasn’t really had a chance to kill anybody.

Why are you being deliberately obtuse? Vigging sach would be the Town killing scum.

651

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]

(snip)
So, what then? When it’s revealed that OAOW, amrussell, and Fretful are “Cabal, Town, and Wolf” respectively, sach will be confirmed in your eyes and mind?

Not mine. Now if he gets right on what amrussell is, that would help.

Snipped.

How? There is no info that could help scum if he’s dead. What would be the purpose of holding back his role? All sach would have to do is say “Yes, he was a Freemason” or “No, he wasn’t a Freemason”. How does THAT divulge ANY info?
[/QUOTE]

And, by the time of his death, most freemasons probably had done their “handshake” thingy with him. And would know amrussell’s claim was right or wrong. And could tell if sachertorte was lying, right now.

652

[QUOTE=Rysto]
…

And this is relevant how? We’ve had no confirmed scum so far, so the Vig hasn’t really had a chance to kill anybody.
[/quote]

We don’t know if there’s a Vig in this game. If there is, only they know.

I’m not. I’m asking you, how would we know if sach was scum or not?

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
And, by the time of his death, most freemasons probably had done their “handshake” thingy with him. And would know amrussell’s claim was right or wrong. And could tell if sachertorte was lying, right now.
[/QUOTE]

Exactly.

653

Quick post here, as I’ve been hogging the computer and my wife is about to boot me off. I’ve just reviewed all posts since the start of toDay and taken notes to get a handle on who to vote for. I haven’t had time to process, however, so I’m not going to vote right now.

I will say this, though, since it seems my lot in life to persecute non-posters :stuck_out_tongue:
This Day is well over 72 hours old and there are several players with ZERO posts. Not cool, in my book. Time to start playing, people!

654

You know, Idle has a point.

unvote Diggit
vote Sachertorte

There’s no reason not to reveal amrussell’s role if you’re telling the truth, at least not that I can see. I guarantee that any Freemason in the game would step in to refute you if you are wrong, but if you are right, they will simply remain silent, keeping them and you safe. There are only drawbacks to coming out with the info if you are lying.

655

I like Rysto’s plan, but am afraid that it might fall apart in its execution.

And I do wish that sachertorte would give us more info re: amrussell. But what if he is vindicated at dusk when we get the reveal about OaoW. I’m leaning towards giving him a chance, but a slim one.

656

I would rather not lynch sachertorte at this point. I still think there’s a good chance that he is the Coroner, and even if he isn’t I don’t see the rush. He’s going to be outed sooner rather than later, isn’t he? In the meantime the scum are probably more than happy to keep everyone’s attention focused on one spot while they (or the rest of them, if sacher really is scum) slide under the radar.

657

Hey, no edit rule!

658

Ah! I’m sorry, I’m sorry. I wanted to rephrase something in my first sentence. I forgot about the no edit rule…:frowning:

Do I get off with a warning or do I have to commit suicide a la the Vigilante now?

659

[QUOTE=Zoggie]
Ah! I’m sorry, I’m sorry. I wanted to rephrase something in my first sentence. I forgot about the no edit rule…:frowning:

Do I get off with a warning or do I have to commit suicide a la the Vigilante now?
[/QUOTE]

PM Pleonast with the original content (and with the editing reason). That would give him elements to decide what should happen next.

(And unless you just “posted on the wrong board”, I don’t think there should be a problem) :wink: .

660

I don’t like Rysto’s plan. I don’t like it at all. Post [post=9053384]641[/post] sets off all sorts of alarms in my scum tracking centre.

It involves giving orders to a putative town power role. I am against that on principle, because debate and orders (even attempted ones) give the scum bands a chance to manipulate the instructions. Rysto played M2; Rysto should remember why this was wrong. it resulted in the Vig killing off townies.

Power roles should be left free to act as they see fit, with no attempts by the Town to do more than suggest, and only then if the roleholder actively seeks it.

Vote Rysto.

I doubt whether I’ll be able to read the thread again for 36 hours or so, but that’s still about 8 hours to assess and decide whether I need to change my vote.