Mafia: The Conspiracy

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
I’ve been livid for the past two days! Drain Bead! Seriously, Drain Bead? I haven’t gone back to look through the reasoning for the votes but come on, a last minute lynch with no time for a defense.
Bad Town, bad town.
If you haven’t guessed by now, Drain Bead is Town Aligned.
[/QUOTE]

Are you going to reveal the Side of Hal and Rysto? I am not asking you do, merely wondering if you will. (Or do you not know them yet? I thought the Coroner knew right away, but I might be remembering the rules wrong.)

<urk!>

Okay, we now have some solid information on some scum. With this knowledge, I thought maybe I could see a correlation between my list of suspicions and the interactions with scum. And I cam across a whopper of a post (471). I’m going to have to respond to this post out of order, because otherwise my suspicion doesn’t make sense.

This is in response to Fretful Porpentine, our fuzzy zombie. This is essentially an OMGUS vote by Fretful, and then fluiddruid comes along and agrees? Is this possible railroading? Maybe, maybe not… let’s see what the first part of the post was…

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
Perhaps, but, more often than not I think we’re removing people who are just naturally not creating huge amounts of volume. Can scum hide here? Possibly, but there are a lot of other reasons why someone would be lower in post count. It’s just not reliable at all and frankly I think it creates an incentive for people to post more to save themselves (scum or not) which tends to obfuscate the entire discussion.

Agreed though on
unvote Sachertorte
for a verifiable role claim. But, I frankly think amrussell is getting pounced on. There are a lot of votes flying for him at this point and I’m not convinced he’s our best man for the lynch. I don’t really see scum coming out with so many proposed strategies right away (making him/herself vulnerable).
[/QUOTE]

This is in response to sachetorte taking her to task for saying she didn’t have anything to say (408). Wait, so first you say you don’t have anything to say (IOW, you can’t contribute anything to the discussion) and then you say it makes people want to post more? Since when is that a bad thing (except maybe in Roosh’s case)? The idea behind lynching lurkers, while fundamentally flawed for other reasons, is that they AREN’T creating enough content, more content equals more information, more information equals town advantage. You should know this.

Interestingly enough, in the same post 408, you say you have nothing to say, but yet you say that you think most of the analysis is circle jerking. …well, that sure as hell sounds like something to say. Why didn’t you step forward and say that? Why didn’t you make an effort to prove the analyses wrong? Why didn’t you try to point us in the right direction?

And to top it all off–back to the post I quoted-- you offer a vague “I don’t think amrussell is scum” comment with no addition to the analysis. Why do you think he’s getting pounced on? It’s obvious to us NOW that he’s town, but how would you have known that then? This is a very common scum tactic.
Then you decide to jump on the Diggit wagon which, while I felt he was somewhat suspicious, I thought was ultimately poorly reasoned. Diomedes correctly pointed out that even if he were not one of those specific roles mentioned there’s still plenty of others.

But you’re adding fuel to the fire. In post 585 you say:

Are you actually suggesting that people who don’t know a specific rule about a specific role or set of roles can’t even be aligned with them? Maybe people who have a better understanding of the undead or the wolves is more likely to be one of them? Did it not occur to you that MAYBE he just maybe misunderstood the rules, didn’t realize he misunderstood the rules, so he didn’t bother to clarify? So, again, you’re casting and OMGUS FOS here.

And then, while the whole rest of the town is completely boggled by sachetorte’s behavior, you are strangely calm about it (602) and you end up voting for Diggit based on odds derived from a false dichotomy?
These are pretty straightforward, scum motivated behaviors, and thus I think you’re scum. I do not think you’re cabal, obviously, because you helped Fretful Porpentine railroad OAOW. So you either inadvertantly helped her (more likely, I think) and you’re an undead, or you’re a wolf and you teamed up with her.

I will save my vote for now, because I have a few other people I want to read back over, particularly ShadowFacts, DiggitCamara, Hazel, Hockey Monkey, nesta, and Pygmy Rugger. I probably won’t get to them all Today, but since my suspicions are pretty restarting from scratch, I’ll wait to see if anyone comes up more suspicious.

I know them, and will reveal them if we think that is best. I’m following caution at this early part of the Day since once the info is out there, I can’t take it back. So if everyone wants the info now, I’ll spill it. Right now, I don’t see a compelling reason to reveal the Sides of Hal and Rysto (beyond the fact that you are all dying to know, which might be sufficient reason itself), but I think knowing Drain Bead’s Side is important for discussion right now.
I’ll reveal Side information (as well as Roles of amrussell and Fretful Porpentine) by the end of the day, even if it’s a Wednesday 2:55PM drive-by posting. At least that’s my plan for now. If there is compelling reason to alter this plan I will do so.

Wow. I actually added “Ginger Snaps” and “28 Days Later” to my Netflix queue earlier this year. Appropriate! Oooh–can we chain the zombie up and take pictures with her, like in “Land of the Dead”?

I think I’m a lot more willing to trust sachertorte now. I mean, I’ve gotten more and more inclined to. I’m also feeling less inclined positively towards Idle Thoughts for being so tough on sachertorte who seems to have our best interests at heart.

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Wait, so first you say you don’t have anything to say (IOW, you can’t contribute anything to the discussion) and then you say it makes people want to post more? Since when is that a bad thing (except maybe in Roosh’s case)? The idea behind lynching lurkers, while fundamentally flawed for other reasons, is that they AREN’T creating enough content, more content equals more information, more information equals town advantage. You should know this.
[/quote]
Yes, I do know it - heck, I posted it myself - but my point is, and was, that people shouldn’t be hounded to post 50 times a day! The cost to Town in trying to track what people have said is already staggering, and we don’t need to tell people to post fluff. We want people to come in, discuss who to vote for, and some strategy… but we don’t need to get bogged down in endless strategy discussions. I really don’t think they benefit Town.

Yes, in principle, ideally more posting means more information. But we’re all real people who need to process that information and actively punishing people who are medium to low (not lurking, as I specified) is self-defeating. You don’t need to be every other post to be a valid participant and, from an outside-of-the-game perspective, most players can’t keep up the furious pace of our top posters. This does not make them scum.

By coming in to a circle-jerk discussion and attempting to give a point-by-point rebuttal, it’s really only continuing the same discussion, don’t you think?

Look what happened Yesterday. We went on and on and on ad nauseum about Idle Thoughts and his roleclaim past the point of all reason, then we ended up making a last minute lynch decision. Was it a good decision? You seem to think so, you voted for Drain Bead. But I’m not convinced just yet and we still failed to really discuss and give time for a vote recipient to respond. Granted, Drain Bead misunderstood the timeframes but no roleclaim was even attempted. That’s a BIG problem. Surely you see that?

What’s the tactic? It was a vibe, I was trying to catch up on the thread in a short amount of time. When I had more time (in Day Two, and hopefully ongoing) I posted more as to my reasoning.

Yes. A point I considered and in fact responded to (as with many of your points above).

To turn the table around, do you think that Drain Bead was a better reasoned vote? Why?

I voted Diggit primarily based on odds. Was it a sure thing? Of course not. But I’d rather go, based on the information we had at the time (which is to say, not much) with someone who essentially can’t be, what, half the town roles, rather than someone who could be all of them. That’s not poor reasoning. That’s statistics.

I didn’t say ‘can’t’. But I contended then, as I contend now, that someone pays much more attention to their own role than the others. That was my point. Do you honestly debate this? Who didn’t go down the list and read their own role description first? Who isn’t most familiar with their own description (and powers)? Don’t you think it’s more likely to misunderstand a role with which you are less familiar?

In both this instance, and in the prior instance with Diggit, I am talking about using the odds in our favor. This is controversial?

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
I know them, and will reveal them if we think that is best. I’m following caution at this early part of the Day since once the info is out there, I can’t take it back. So if everyone wants the info now, I’ll spill it. Right now, I don’t see a compelling reason to reveal the Sides of Hal and Rysto (beyond the fact that you are all dying to know, which might be sufficient reason itself), but I think knowing Drain Bead’s Side is important for discussion right now.
I’ll reveal Side information (as well as Roles of amrussell and Fretful Porpentine) by the end of the day, even if it’s a Wednesday 2:55PM drive-by posting. At least that’s my plan for now. If there is compelling reason to alter this plan I will do so.
[/QUOTE]
This information giving is a new mechanic so I’m a bit torn, but, if you’re going to reveal something at the end of the Day, why not now? Doesn’t it benefit Town more to be able to know, and analyze the information, and use it Today rather than spilling it Tonight just before night actions (mostly scum)?

I don’t know how much it changes for the lynch. So perhaps you’re right. We should round up a list of potential suspects and then decide.

I don’t know how much I am dying to know about Hal. Rysto perhaps but Hal never pinged me as anything but Town. Granted this may be due to his relative low post count. Though, it may tell us something about Shadowfacts who pounced pretty quickly on Hal with a FOS.

I’m going to go back through Rysto’s posts though since the notion that he’s scummy didn’t really come up Yesterday and I’d like to see what people are pointing at. As well as a few others’ who have stayed off the radar for the most part.

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Well, unless sachertorte is really lucky at guessing, we now know he can at least tell the alignments of dead people. Idle’s revelation of his own role extension leaves just a small lingering doubt: could he be scum who knows stuff about dead people’s alignments?
[/QUOTE]

It would only require one lucky guess. I think I’ll wait to see more, thanks, before giving a bit more trust. :stuck_out_tongue:

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Well, I, for one, am a bit confused. I understand the attack on Hal, because he was under the radar, maybe a power role of some sort, but from what I could tell, Rysto had a reasonable amount of suspicion. I wonder if he was taken out because maybe one scum faction thought he was a member of the other one?

I have a couple ideas, I’m going to do some quick back-reading and see if I can substantiate any of them…
[/QUOTE]

Being someone who was suspicious of Rysto himself, that’s the only thing I can think of.

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
Rysto was shooting enough scumtells off yesterday that I wouldn’t be amazed if he was Vigged. Hopefully, he’ll turn up scummy (or the Vig laid low last night) and we won’t have to worry about losing two townies to his death.
[/QUOTE]

There were only two deaths, though. You’d think if a Vig was in this game there would be three? Unless someone was protected by the Witches and a kill failed or the Vig (if there is one) didn’t choose to kill. At least that’s how I see it.

Added: Forgot all about the possible Warlock or Magician.

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
I know them, and will reveal them if we think that is best.
[/quote]

:dubious:

So NOTHING this time? Not even a Town or Wolf?

You are making it VERY, very hard to trust you, you realize that? Again, it’s almost like you don’t KNOW the roles, and don’t want to wind up guessing wrong so that you’re revealed to be a liar.

[QUOTE=Zoggie]
Wow. I actually added “Ginger Snaps” and “28 Days Later” to my Netflix queue earlier this year. Appropriate! Oooh–can we chain the zombie up and take pictures with her, like in “Land of the Dead”?

I think I’m a lot more willing to trust sachertorte now. I mean, I’ve gotten more and more inclined to. I’m also feeling less inclined positively towards Idle Thoughts for being so tough on sachertorte who seems to have our best interests at heart.
[/QUOTE]

I don’t see how at all. I still don’t. I still don’t see any reason to keep the info secret.
And with that, I’m going to

Vote Zoggie

for now.

For a few reasons.

  1. For the reasons I voted for her on Day One.
  2. For being the first to vote for me after I roleclaimed- You think it’d be worth lynchng the/a possible Witchdoctor? I don’t care who you are or what you think. Even if someone is false claiming it, it’s TOO important of a role, I feel, to lynch unless you’re ABSOLUTELY SURE. Especailly since I can be so easily verified by others by talking to a dead Witch or a dead Freemason. Even when revealing those extra powers, you seem to still think it’s best not to trust me and keep suspicion on me. If I’m lying, I WILL BE CAUGHT in time. But given enough time I can ALSO PROVE I’m Town and the/a Witchdoctor, so it’s foolish to just scream for my head.
  3. Your slow work, especially in that last quote, of trying to cast doubt on me still. I don’t know what I can say that will make you think otherwise and I’m starting to think there isn’t anything. The Scum KNOW they probably won’t be able to kill me off at Night without trading one of their own and that EVEN AFTER THAT I may be protected so I think it’s in scum’s best interest to try to kill me off in the Day. And what better way to set that up then still express suspicion over me and set the stage for a possible future lynch if it goes that way? Everyone else I saw unvote me and go “well, I don’t want to take that chance.” You and sach for some reason, are the only two who were still trying to convince Town that I was scum or shady. I even posted my PM. You think I can create a fake one that fast? I didn’t even KNOW we could post PMs until I was told Pleo gave his all right on it and I think it shows in those three posts in succession yesterDay. Note the times. I could not fashion a PM up that quick. It was pure copy and paste. So strong suspicion on YOU (again, since I already found you suspicious enough to vote for on Day One) for continuing to try to make it look like I’m suspicious.

Your reasons for voting for me on Day One were pretty ridiculous. For asking stupid questions and playing dumb? Considering I’ve literally never played before, and this is my first time out in a relatively complicated game, I’m sorry I’m not as on the ball as you.

I don’t think I noticed that you’d role claimed until afterwards. I did back off eventually, but your defensiveness worries me. And I don’t see why you are casting such aspersions on sachertorte when clearly he’s gotten three roles right.

For that reason, vote Idle Thoughts

I’ve just read through the Day’s post really quickly and have only one thing to say so far:

Sides, Zoggie. He’s gotten Sides right. Pleonast hasn’t revealed any Roles yet.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
This information giving is a new mechanic so I’m a bit torn, but, if you’re going to reveal something at the end of the Day, why not now? Doesn’t it benefit Town more to be able to know, and analyze the information, and use it Today rather than spilling it Tonight just before night actions (mostly scum)?
(snip)

[/QUOTE]

After yesterDay, I can understand some of the rationale behind it (maybe someone will spill information they couldn’t have and thus out themselves), and in and of itself it might be wise to use it so anyone who’s successfully protected by the WitchDoctor won’t come back with his/her role exposed for all to see, but the main problem I see is that one of these Nights, if the Coroner’s offed, we’ll all sit high and dry.

Just saying, is all.

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
I know them, and will reveal them if we think that is best. I’m following caution at this early part of the Day since once the info is out there, I can’t take it back. So if everyone wants the info now, I’ll spill it. Right now, I don’t see a compelling reason to reveal the Sides of Hal and Rysto (beyond the fact that you are all dying to know, which might be sufficient reason itself), but I think knowing Drain Bead’s Side is important for discussion right now.
I’ll reveal Side information (as well as Roles of amrussell and Fretful Porpentine) by the end of the day, even if it’s a Wednesday 2:55PM drive-by posting. At least that’s my plan for now. If there is compelling reason to alter this plan I will do so.
[/QUOTE]

Your plan sits right with me. Actually, I think you should reveal the Role of either amrussel (if he’s not a mason like he said) or Fret (if Fret’s not a vanilla wolf), and be done with it. The delay of learning the Roles, while frustrating perhaps for the rest of us, probably won’t help the town at all (the various town power roles can figure out whom to investigate based on Alignment, and the Vig can kill based on it as well), but the delay in revealing Roles can only hurt the scum, as far as I can see. It’s the scum who will be trying to pinpoint specific power roles: information they receive will help narrow down their searches.
If you can succesfully predict an unrevealed Role, we should be content in your confirmation, and let you just continue feeding us the Alignment information.

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
Your plan sits right with me. Actually, I think you should reveal the Role of either amrussel (if he’s not a mason like he said) or Fret (if Fret’s not a vanilla wolf), and be done with it. The delay of learning the Roles, while frustrating perhaps for the rest of us, probably won’t help the town at all (the various town power roles can figure out whom to investigate based on Alignment, and the Vig can kill based on it as well), but the delay in revealing Roles can only hurt the scum, as far as I can see. It’s the scum who will be trying to pinpoint specific power roles: information they receive will help narrow down their searches.
If you can succesfully predict an unrevealed Role, we should be content in your confirmation, and let you just continue feeding us the Alignment information.
[/QUOTE]

You’re right, actually, now that I think about it (sorry for flip-flopping).

There can’t be too much of an overlap of Roles, after all. And with four people dead right now, three of which haven’t even a known Alignment, much less a Role, any false roleclaim means that he/she is in danger of being exposed.

Carry on!

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
Yes, I do know it - heck, I posted it myself - but my point is, and was, that people shouldn’t be hounded to post 50 times a day!
[/QUOTE]

Strawman.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
The cost to Town in trying to track what people have said is already staggering, and we don’t need to tell people to post fluff.
[/QUOTE]

Strawman.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
We want people to come in, discuss who to vote for, and some strategy… but we don’t need to get bogged down in endless strategy discussions.
[/QUOTE]

Asking people to minimally participate (which is all I’ve ever advocated) will not result in endless strategy discussions. One has nothiong to do with the other.

Neither I nor anyone else in this game has said anything remotely close to what you “rebut” here. Strawman arguments like this would be incinerated in Great Debates, and in this game they make you look scummy.

(all above bolding is mine)

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
I’ve been livid for the past two days! Drain Bead! Seriously, Drain Bead? I haven’t gone back to look through the reasoning for the votes but come on, a last minute lynch with no time for a defense.
Bad Town, bad town.
If you haven’t guessed by now, Drain Bead is Town Aligned.
[/QUOTE]

Hindsight’s 20/20. (Or, in this case since you are still not quite confirmed, 20/40 :smiley: ). It’s the “curse of the roleclaim” in this game. Here’s what I said Day One:

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
Speaking of voting, we’re now about one day away from the deadline, and I’d like to begin a discussion about role claims. In previous games that I’ve read on the Dope, there usually was a policy of believing all roles claims, at least temporarily, to avoid lynching a power role by accident. Often this would happen at the last minute, leading to flurries of activity at the deadline trying to come up with a second candidate.

Given that this game is different and everyone has a power role, presumably everyone is giong to role claim (including scum, of course). How are we going to handle that? It seems to me that the “believe all role claims” method is simply not going to work in this game, because we’re just going to get a cascading series of “Wait, I’m the [insert role here], don’t lynch me!” until all roles are revealed.

I have no idea what to do about this. Later in the game, of course, we may have more data to work with to evaluate claims, but at the moment we have pretty much nada.
[/QUOTE]

Which is pretty much exactly what is happening. We get close to a target, they claim. Since we of course want to play it safe and not lose a powerful Town role, we relent, and on to the next, who claims, ad nauseum, until time runs out. In this case **Drain Bead **got caught at the end. If she hadn’t gotten the time mixed up, she would’ve claimed and then we would have been on to the next person. (If she is Town, I feel particularly bad about that, since I cast the first vote for her, way back before the whole **Idle **brouhaha even started).

Unless we can decide on a better way to do it, it’s going to happen at the end of this Day as well. It’s a major problem. (Of course, if we try to strategize a way around this problem, we’ll probably be accused of “irrelevant” or “endless” discussion :dubious: )

Two were easy and one could have been luck. Sorry if I happen to find him suspicious for not revealing roles at first.

[QUOTE=Zoggie]
For that reason, vote Idle Thoughts
[/QUOTE]

Thank you for proving my point.

sachertorte,

Having read Pleonast’s role descriptions, it looks as though the scum only have night actions. I think you can release the info on **amrussell ** and Fretful to the benefit of the town, although I don’t think any of the town Day Actions will be affected by it.

Then your role gets more or less confirmed at dusk.

Hal Briston’s Posts

#32, #57, #70, #104, #135, #144, #486, #885, #902 - Fluff

#148 - Fluff based on Daughter’s cheerleading outfit
#352 - Agrees with **Pygmy ** about **OAOW ** and amrussell
#377 - Votes amrussell over suggestion we should lynch the vicar if they roleclaim
#387 - Comment on FretFul Porpentine
#455 - unvotes amrussell, votes OAOW
#479 - Comment on the third vote is a scum tell.
#506 - Comment on keeping his vote on the Vigilante
#702 - Question to **Pleonast ** about the Omega Wolf and masons.
#779 - Notes same points as **Zoggie ** and Blaster Master, considers sachertorte legit, follows his lead and votes Idle Thoughts
#795 - Unvotes Idle Thoughts after roleclaim

You wil have to bear with me on **Rysto ** - it could take a while - he was prolific.

[QUOTE=CatInASuit]
sachertorte,

Having read Pleonast’s role descriptions, it looks as though the scum only have night actions. I think you can release the info on **amrussell ** and Fretful to the benefit of the town, although I don’t think any of the town Day Actions will be affected by it.

Then your role gets more or less confirmed at dusk.
[/QUOTE]

I wouldn’t assume anything about what the scum can do based on the rules. We’ve already raised the spectre of additional powers in the form of recruitment.

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
I wouldn’t assume anything about what the scum can do based on the rules. We’ve already raised the spectre of additional powers in the form of recruitment.
[/QUOTE]

Good point. There is nothing in the rules to say that they don’t have a Day power.

Also, just a chilling thought on recruitment. If the Wolves and Undead get a recruitment through a Night Kill, is there any reason the Cabal won’t have a chance to recruit someone as well through their own nefarious means?