Mafia: The Conspiracy

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@CatInASuit

(It’s really annoying, I’m going to spending today hunting down Witch #3 from Diomedes’ hints )

Don’t bother, you won’t find her.

[ShadowFacts]

@Idle Thoughts

@Diomedes

Blaster is either town or the Omega. For now, I think we should assume that both he and Shadow are Town, as they’ve been discovered.

And this is the only reason I’m not highly suspicious of BM myself. Because if ANYONE is the Omega, it’s got to be…

…hey…
…HEY!

Leggo, Dio. Take your hand off of my mouth! Okay, okay! I’ll shut up. Sheesh.

You know, I was going to let this (and all your other crap about me) go, but…

If I am the Omega Wolf, I am the stupidest wolf in the history of lycanthropy. Not only did I put the last second vote that lynched fluiddruid, I’m the tie-breaker on **MHaye **today.

But I encourage you to keep flinging your UMGUS mud on me, Mr. Necromancer, because nobody is buying it and it just makes you look scummier. So keep it coming!

Whoops! Did I say Necromancer? I meant Necro-speaker! Silly me, but they are so similar you can see why I slipped up. My bad.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@ShadowFacts

You know, I was going to let this (and all your other crap about me) go, but…

If I am the Omega Wolf, I am the stupidest wolf in the history of lycanthropy. Not only did I put the last second vote that lynched fluiddruid, I’m the tie-breaker on **MHaye **today.

But I encourage you to keep flinging your UMGUS mud on me, Mr. Necromancer, because nobody is buying it and it just makes you look scummier. So keep it coming!

Whoops! Did I say Necromancer? I meant Necro-speaker! Silly me, but they are so similar you can see why I slipped up. My bad.

Fine! That’s it! I’ve had enough. I’m turning this car right around, and you boys can go to your rooms and think about what you’ve done.

[Santo_Rugger]

@Blaster Master

This is, what I shall call for lack of a better term, the Monte Hall fallacy. The probability of me being a particular role does not change because we have additional information about other roles. Assigning distinct values to each role (ie, duplicate roles get appended to create unique indentifiers), that means selecting any role at random I, or anyone, has a 1/22 chance of having that role.

You are refering to is a conditional probability based on specific knowledge or assumptions. This in no way invalids the few numbers I provide. Thus, going by the same line of reasoning, I could argue that I have zero chance of the roles I do not have an a 100% chance of having the role I do have.

Well, since you already have your role, you do have a 100% chance of having your role. If we were playing poker, and I had the ace of spades, there would be a zero percent chance of the ace of spades coming up on the flop.

Further, I don’t understand your insistence on trying to paint me as the Omega-Wolf. We have more important matters at hand, and we can discuss my and YOUR alignments Tomorrow. But what you’re currently engaging in is semantic squabbling and ad hominem attacks,

You’re the one that brought it up.

but you’ve failed to dicount the fundamental parts of my logic. In fact, this whole line of reasoning by you is thoroughly lacking town motivation.

Others have discounted said logic, and I’ve stated that it involves trusting at least two people who are not yet verified yet. I strongly disagree that my reasoning is lacking town motivation. Remember, I don’t have the information to confirm both you and Hockey like you supposedly do.

[sachertorte]

Irony:
I find it funny that someone so driven to demand that I play my role the way he thinks it should is getting huffy about others suggesting courses of action for his role. Where was the “let power roles play their own role the way they see fit” mantra back on Day Two?

Trust:

• I trust myself. Further, I believe I have demonstrated enough of my power to convince the town that I am a Coroner. The chances of guessing alignments has become vanishingly small at this point. What’s left is paranoia. Anyone waiting for 100% confirmation before making decisions will be waiting a long long time.
• I trust Diomedes. Now that we are at mid-game, I was hoping for investigator claims. A witch claim at this time makes sense – especially, if the witches have actionable data. Furthermore, there have been no witch counterclaims. I see no reason for a witch not to counterclaim if Diomedes is lying. Now, there may be a very good reason that I’m not aware of, but as it stands, no counterclaim means Diomedes is telling the truth from my point of view. Further furthermore, Diomedes identified Rysto as a fellow witch, which is correct. This is one of the many unspoken reasons I was not revealing Role information. I wanted to use role information to confirm masons and witches. The consequence of this idea is that I wouldn’t reveal any Role information. (sidenote: I also realized on Night One that I would want to conceal the Roles of witches to prevent scum from using the post record to their advantage. Again, the consequence of this idea is that I would need to suppress all Role information. Suppressing unimportant scum roles was just a red herring on my part.).
• I do not trust CatInASuit. Duh.
• I do not trust MHaye. His lack of defense does not look Town to me at all.
• Hence, I trust Hockey Monkey. If MHaye had mounted a decent defense at all, I’d be open to questioning Hockey Monkey. He didn’t; so I don’t. Also, Hockey Monkey came out of nowhere with her claim. She was not in danger of a lynch (well yet anyway), and claiming now is consistent with what I thought would be logical for the Detective. If she waits, she can’t get more information anyway!
• My trust in Blaster Master is more problematic. What trust exists hinges on my trust of Diomedes. Again, I believe if Diomedes were lying, a witch would counterclaim. Diomedes has ruled out the possibility of Blaster Master being undead or cabal. The only possibilities are Town or Omega Wolf. Based on my trust of Hockey Monkey and my distrust of MHaye, I conclude that a lying Blaster Master’s crusade against MHaye would have to be Wolf on Wolf. This is a possibility as ‘selling-out’ MHaye isn’t too much of a sacrifice for a Wolf since MHaye has already been found out. One needling thing about Blaster Master is that he has shared quite a bit about himself, but won’t committ to revealing his Role. I find this odd since the description of his powers is much more interesting to scum than simply the name of his role. He might have good pro-town reasons not to state his role (but I do not see them at this time); but unfortunately an Omega Wolf would have a high motivation for avoiding making a false claim for as long as possible. If Blaster Master were the Omega Wolf his claim can be debunked by either Masons or The Seer.
  I ask that Blaster Master weigh the pros and cons of a roleclaim.

Cabal:
I assume that all the Cabal are dead. There is a nice symmetry with 3 witches and 3 Cabal. If Hockey Monkey’s numbers are accurate (and I believe they are), that puts the start at 5 Wolf 2 Undead 3 Cabal and 12 Town. An additional Cabalist would make the game 50% scum. With two killing factions, I believe this to be unreasonable.

Forecast:
Slightly cloudy with chance of Zombies…

Forecast with MHaye lynched First, CatInASuit as a Vampire, no Vig.
Day Four (Today): 8 Town, 3 Wolves, 2 Undead, 2 Zombies
Day Five (Tomorrow): 6 Town, 2 Wolves, 2 Undead, 3 Zombies
Day Six: 5 Town, 2 Wolves, 1 Undead, 4 Zombies – Must lynch necromancer or lose

Forecast with MHaye lynched First, CatInASuit as a Necromancer, no Vig.
Day Four (Today): 8 Town, 3 Wolves, 2 Undead, 2 Zombies
Day Five (Tomorrow): 6 Town, 2 Wolves, 2 Undead, 3 Zombies
Day Six: 4 Town, 2 Wolves, 1 Undead, 0 Zombies

Forecast with CatInASuit lynched first, CatInASuit as a Vampire, no Vig.
Day Four (Today): 8 Town, 3 Wolves, 2 Undead, 2 Zombies
Day Five (Tomorrow): 7 Town, 3 Wolves, 1 Undead, 3 Zombies
Day Six: 6 Town, 2 Wolves, 1 Undead, 4 Zombies

Forecast with CatInASuit lynched first, CatInASuit as a Necromancer, no Vig.
Day Four (Today): 8 Town, 3 Wolves, 2 Undead, 2 Zombies
Day Five (Tomorrow): 6 Town, 3 Wolves, 1 Undead, 0 Zombies
Day Six: 4 Town, 2 Wolves, 1 Undead, 0 Zombies

My conclusions… The game so far has been pretty good for the Town, Of the dead players 4 are Town (amrussell, Drain Bead, Rysto, Hal Briston), 2 are wolves (Fretful Porpentine, fluiddruid), 3 are Cabal (One And Only Wanderers, Kat, nesta). That’s 4 town to 5 scum. I’d say that’s remarkably good, yet, with Town claims and two nightkills for scum, the game is actually very close. We should expect Town Mortality rate to be Two Town per night for the next two nights.

There is almost certainly a Vig. I can’t see how Town could be expected to root out scum without a NightKill ability somewhere. We just would not be able to keep up. We’ve had ONE mislynch (Drain Bead). And even if we are correct with MHaye and CatInASuit, the game would still end up very close, grim even! The existence of a Vig invalidates my Forecasts above, but I leave them there to illustrate a game balance reason for the existence of a Vig as well as an illustration that despite Town greatly outnumbering scum for now, the two kills allowed to scum makes the game much closer than we think.

CatInASuit is lying about his kill secret power. With two scum nightkills in the game plus RECRUITMENT!, giving scum additional kill powers is remarkably unbalanced. A random kill would be bad enough, but a directed kill? No Way. If anything, such a secret power would be given to the Cabal, to give them a chance at taking out a Witch. Giving it to Undead? Nope. I don’t believe it. Such a mechanism would make a game where Town lynches scum every Day, yet still loses, not just a remote possibility, but a likely outcome. As it stands I’m already questioning the balance of this game.

Recruitment:
I very much don’t like recruitment. If I die and come back, kill me.

Vote:
I’m changing my vote to MHaye because I think I will be dead by morning. We need to know MHaye’s role to assess Hockey Monkey (and possibly Blaster Master). If we delay killing MHaye until later, his role reveal will be delayed as well (especially if I’m dead). Although, if MHaye gets vigged tonight, the point is moot, but whatever. I’m not sold on Blaster Master’s plan, but as we know CatInASuit is scum, killing MHaye now makes sense from an informational need view. Tomorrow you lynch CatInASuit, and by the next day you should know MHaye’s alignment (even if I’m dead), then you can act on Hockey Monkey if necessary. I’m very much reluctantly doing this as I still think CatInASuit should die right now, but with needing to know MHaye’s alignment and Blaster Master’s grand plan…

unvote CatInASuit
vote MHaye

[Santo_Rugger]

Hypothesis: CatInASuit is a Vampire, with recruitment power, and wants to utilize said power toNight, hence his fabricated story about being able to take out Dio.

[DiggitCamara]

@Idle Thoughts

However, if we kill MHaye:

1. We’ll learn if there is a Vig or not in the game.
2. We may be saving a Witch.
3. We can hear from Sach (who I assume would tell us so we’d know if Hockey was lying) if MHaye was anything other than a Wolf.
4. Your number 5 doesn’t work so well if HM is lying because we won’t find out MHaye alligence until two Days from now barring he’s not killed off by then…but if he is killed off this Night (by a Vig), we won’t have a confirmed one tomorroDay AND we may be out a Vig (if MHaye is Town).

In every case, it’s a bit better, I think, to lynch MHaye toDay. Because if it turns out CIAS was the Necro and does take Dio, I, personally, will be mildly suspicious of all of those who voted for him (see my earlier post re: How some are probably voting for him because they believe him and hope he takes a Witch along).

1. I can pretty much guarantee it right now. On two Nights either Cabalists or Wolves were hit. I doubt that they constantly hit players outside their factions. And to be honest, knowing if there is a Vigilante or not is not exactly a priority
2. If you believe dying scum would disclose that point, yes. But I don’t think the Cat really would have given us that piece of information if he really had that power
3. Right. But for that **sachertorte **would have to survive the Night. The way Blaster Master described his Plan, that isn’t actually guaranteed by anyone. Even less if our prospective Vampire is allowed to survive the Day
4. You don’t think the Night will give us some more information? I’m pretty sure it will. Anyhow, if HM is lying, she would be a lynch target, wouldn’t she?

[ShadowFacts]

@sachertorte

I’m changing my vote to MHaye because I think I will be dead by morning.

I think those who have protective powers should STRONGLY consider putting sach on the protect list, as without him we will have to wait a long time to know if any of these gambits/claims are valid. Without knowing more from Blaster, I don’t know how many “protections” he has, plus the witches, but you guys should think carefully about it.

[Pleonast]

About three hours until Dusk.

A note to everyone: I’ve tried to balance it so that each Side had an equal chance of winning, at the start of the game. So you shouldn’t have expected more than a 25% chance.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@Pleonast

About three hours until Dusk.

A note to everyone: I’ve tried to balance it so that each Side had an equal chance of winning, at the start of the game. So you shouldn’t have expected more than a 25% chance.

I think this post is essentially telling us there’s at least another Cabalist left.

[Santo_Rugger]

@Diomedes

I think this post is essentially telling us there’s at least another Cabalist left.

I don’t.

[sachertorte]

@ShadowFacts

I think those who have protective powers should STRONGLY consider putting sach on the protect list, as without him we will have to wait a long time to know if any of these gambits/claims are valid. Without knowing more from Blaster, I don’t know how many “protections” he has, plus the witches, but you guys should think carefully about it.

I disagree. I think protective roles should mildly consider protecting me. I’m not all that important. The most important part of my role is already public information. Protective roles should not publicly commit to protecting me (nor should they rule it out 100%). I’m not that important (certainly not as important as Diomedes), but it would be nice to make scum think twice about killing me.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@Santo Rugger

I don’t.

The Cabalists, no matter how many their number, are stuck with a bit of a raw deal. They’re scum, but they have no night kill action. The only weapon they have is a block, but it’s questionable how they should use it, even if they knew where everyone was: they need the undead and the wolves dead just as much as the town does, but they need the game to go on long enough for two of the three witches to get killed.
I can’t see the Cabalists having as good a shot of winning as the other scum, and certainly not as good a shot of winning as the town with only three players.

[ShadowFacts]

@sachertorte

I disagree. I think protective roles should mildly consider protecting me. I’m not all that important. The most important part of my role is already public information. **Protective roles should not publicly commit to protecting me (nor should they rule it out 100%). **I’m not that important (certainly not as important as Diomedes), but it would be nice to make scum think twice about killing me.

(bolding mine)

I disagree with how important your role still is, but I completely agree with the bolded part.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@sachertorte

I disagree. I think protective roles should mildly consider protecting me. I’m not all that important. The most important part of my role is already public information. Protective roles should not publicly commit to protecting me (nor should they rule it out 100%). I’m not that important (certainly not as important as Diomedes), but it would be nice to make scum think twice about killing me.

I agree with your comments on protective roles talking publicly aboutthier plans for the evening. I think Idle and Blaster (even with his promise of protecting Hockey) should make up their minds entirely independently tonight.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

Damn you, ShadowFacts!

[Santo_Rugger]

@Diomedes

The Cabalists, no matter how many their number, are stuck with a bit of a raw deal. They’re scum, but they have no night kill action. The only weapon they have is a block, but it’s questionable how they should use it, even if they knew where everyone was: they need the undead and the wolves dead just as much as the town does, but they need the game to go on long enough for two of the three witches to get killed.
I can’t see the Cabalists having as good a shot of winning as the other scum, and certainly not as good a shot of winning as the town with only three players.

Do you really think Pleo would say, “Hey, guys, there’s still Cabal left.”?

[HazelNutCoffee]

@Santo Rugger

Do you really think Pleo would say, “Hey, guys, there’s still Cabal left.”?

He didn’t. He said each chance had an equal shot at winning, and considering the fact that Cabal have a pretty raw deal in terms of power, it’d make sense that they would make up for that in numbers… is what Dio is saying, I think.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@HazelNutCoffee

He didn’t. He said each chance had an equal shot at winning, and considering the fact that Cabal have a pretty raw deal in terms of power, it’d make sense that they would make up for that in numbers… is what Dio is saying, I think.

Thanks, Hazel. That’s what I was trying to get at. Not that the Cabal shouldbe our main focus, but when we start looking around and trying to figure out who’s who, it’d be a good thing to keep in mind.

[Idle_Thoughts]

@Blaster Master

Who said I was assuming anything? The Cabal are almost certainly gone, since there’s three witches, it makes sense there’d be three Cabal.

There’s were twenty players. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are were: 5 Wolves, 2 (or 3) Undead (not counting the zombies) , 4 Cabal, and 8 (or 9) Town.

even in the event there is one or two left, they will NOT target me because they would be extremely foolish to do so. You may or may not think so, but the logic is simple. They have NO way of killing scum directly, they HAVE to depend on the town and the scum to some extent. At this point, Hockey Monkey is a plus to the Cabal because she is unable to incriminate them, and the Cabal will win with the scum eliminated if a Witch dies.

This I agree with…which makes it more possible, to me, that some could be pressing for a Cat lynch in the hopes that he’s telling the truth and can take out Dio

Can you justify that at all? The Cabal can’t do diddly squat to the Witches, so that’s out. Hockey Monkey helps the Town find anyone BUT Cabal… that’s GOOD for them. As I said, their incentive for blocking me, in the off chance one is still out there, is SORELY lacking.

There’s more roles than just those. : p
Witches, me, the Coroner, Freemasons and I’m willing to bet a few others who have not yet come out. Cabal may not be able to DO anything to the Witches at Night but that doesn’t mean they don’t want them dead and will try to kill them off (like today, for example).

Now, now, I’m not questioning your motives, because I can see potential pro-town motives behind your actions thus far. Besides, it’s entirely possible that you’re a well intentioned fool.

Thanks!