Rest snipped.
Like I said to BM, how about you just have faith in me if you are true Town? I’m not telling you how to play your role or making suggestions.
If you don’t trust me, that’s fine. But don’t insult me in thinking I’m as stupid as you may think I am right now.
Sorry, my bad.
S’ok
First of all, as I said, my plan, if it fails, costs the town nothing, because Hockey Monkey would have no protection at all Tonight. Second of all, there’s very likely NOT any Cabalists left. Third, they CAN’T block Witches (which means Dio won’t be blocked) and it’s not in their interest to attempt to block me, because Hockey Monkey is helpful to them, because she can’t identify any of them, and will help the town focus on eliminating other scum than themselves. In fact, the Cabalists best shot is to stay alive, since it just wouldn’t make sense to have more than one left if any, which means blocking Night kills like, say, maybe Cat or MHaye (whichever survives Today) or someone else they think is likely to be a Night killer.
I DO agree with letting roles play as they see fit. I also think it’s a good idea to give advice. And I think it is very foolish to talk to Rysto Tonight, because I see no reason to believe Dio will not be alive tomorrow. And doing so will do nothing to support your claim either. What will you do… out the other Witch? Maybe go “See, I knew that already” when he is forced to claim?
And, NETA: Do take your own advice. 
I assure you, my plan is more solid than you make it appear, and it IS based on information that you do not have. I have given sufficient information to make my intentions clear and support my reasoning for that… the rest you’ll just have to rest on from the fact that I’m probably either town (with 21/22 probability) and have information you don’t, or I’m the Omega-Wolf (with 1/22 probability), at which point my motivation for this behavior is just completely lacking.
Your speaking of investigating Rysto, OTOH, does not involve information that I do not have and directly flies in the face of information we DO have. Of course, you can still do what you like, I can’t MAKE you do what I want… but I sure as hell don’t have to like it.
No. My doubt is that BlaM has said, basically, now that you all know I’m town, check out this awesome plan, which also assumes several other people are telling the truth (including known scum), and if you don’t agree, PLEASE, just READ what I have to SAY, because it’s SECRET, and I KNOW what I’m doing.
Gah.
I had a terrible night last night, then had to deal with bureaucracy and stuff today. By the time I got to look at this game my get up and go had got up and gone to bed - which is where I should be as I have a job interview tomorrow.
To hit the highlights that I remember from reading the thread :-
No player I have enchanted has been killed, and therefore I haven’t actually killed anyone. HockeyMonkey’s claim that I killed amr is therefore false. However, in order to show that, I must die - because no-one is going to lynch a claimed cop over a claimed limited protective power. So be it.
Someone asked who I’d enchanted. The answer is myself on both the first two Nights, and Idle Thoughts on Night 3. I’ll pick a suitable target to enchant Tonight should the town rethink killing me Today.
If the consensus is that we need to test the cop’s claim quickly before her lies can do any more damage, then lynch me Tonight.
I’m going to leave my vote where it is unless I can do some reading tomorrow afternoon (I have until 8pm, after all) and spot another scum.
Night all, and see you on the morrow.
You have a problem with my plan because… it depends on Dio and Sach being town (which, if you doubt at this point, is just sill), and my own personal information that Hockey is town? The ONLY thing I’m asking the town to do, in exchange for my action, is A) realize that Hockey Monkey probably would not have protection, if not for me, Tonight and B) if it works, the town gets to keep it’s investigative roles and if it doesn’t, you lose nothing you wouldn’t have lost anyway and you get me as liar.
PLEASE attack the logic of my plan, because these “I’m not sure you’re town” just ain’t cuttin’ into my logic, because my logic doesn’t depend on that. The ONLY thing you’d POSSIBLY have to be concerned about is if you have reason to believe Hockey Monkey ISN’T whom she says she is and, thus, shouldn’t be protected.
So here… I’m 21/22 town and 1/22 Omega-Wolf based on Dio’s reading. So…
95.45% chance I’m telling the truth and Hockey Monkey and I survive the Night. We get an extra reading from her… town +1 reading, keep all important roles.
4.55% change that I’m lying, I’m the Omega-Wolf, Hockey Monkey dies (when she would have died anyway) and then the town can then lynch the only non-readable role. town +1 confirmed (in ShadowFacts) +1 Wolf death, -1 important role (which, again, doesn’t count because she’d be dead anyway)
Seriously… what the hell is wrong with that?
Gah! Numbers! :: runs away screaming ::
Well, if we kill the Cat:
regardless of any combination of truth or lies which you, HockeyMonkey, MHaye have made.
Those numbers are simply wrong, and you know it. You’re way to logical and think about things in enough depth to not discount all the dead players, plus role claims that are generally accepted as true. From Pleo’s list, including roles that sach has revealed (plus him), we can obtain the following:
That we know are not the Godfather. Now, if we trust Dio and Hockey, we can eliminate both of them, plus CatInASuit. I can also eliminate myself, since I know I’m not. That makes my list:
Or a 1/8 chance, which is considerably larger than the 1/22 chance you’re claiming. Like I said, I know that you’re analytical to simply “overlook” this simple process of elimination.
Not a bad catch. And the danger of Blaster being Omega, with him setting this plan up, might be pretty high.
However, I think Hockey Monkey is also on the list of potential bad claim wolves. However, all of our “Town” results from sache are still on that list, I think, except for amrussell. I’m still putting you on the list (and I assume Blaster did as well), leaving it a 1/10 chance, or perhaps higher, up to 1/13.
How and why do you assume this? I think it’d be dangerous or foolish to automatically assume this.
And how does it cost the Town nothing if it fails? If you’re blocked while you’re protrecting others, then they won’t be protected and if the scum try for them, they’re dead. If I’m blocked while self enchanting and the scum try for me, I’m dead. If the Witches protect someone else or investigate someone, they won’t be protected if YOU are blocked, so that makes a possible you or the Witches killed if scum try for them.
I disagree. I think the biggest threat to all the scum factions right now is the Town power roles.
Well, those are your thoughts. Me, I like keeping my mind open a bit more, I guess.
Well, overall I lean a lot more towards trusting you.
All I ask is you don’t question my motives (at least right now). Your whole thing seems to be based on faith too (“Not revealing my role but here is a plan based on things that have to do with my role”). Me, I’m saying, just let me do what I think is best without saying how foolish it may be. 
Okay.
However, if we kill MHaye:
In every case, it’s a bit better, I think, to lynch MHaye toDay. Because if it turns out CIAS was the Necro and does take Dio, I, personally, will be mildly suspicious of all of those who voted for him (see my earlier post re: How some are probably voting for him because they believe him and hope he takes a Witch along).
What about “if we trust Idle Thoughts”? :dubious:
The only two people I pulled off the list because of sach were Kat and nesta, both Cabal members. I didn’t expect you to pull me off of the list, but six of the other people on it can pull themselves on it. I think, either way you dice it, we can at least agree on 1/10, which is still twice BlaM’s claim.
Then the list gets even smaller.
This is, what I shall call for lack of a better term, the Monte Hall fallacy. The probability of me being a particular role does not change because we have additional information about other roles. Assigning distinct values to each role (ie, duplicate roles get appended to create unique indentifiers), that means selecting any role at random I, or anyone, has a 1/22 chance of having that role.
You are refering to is a conditional probability based on specific knowledge or assumptions. This in no way invalids the few numbers I provide. Thus, going by the same line of reasoning, I could argue that I have zero chance of the roles I do not have an a 100% chance of having the role I do have.
Further, I don’t understand your insistence on trying to paint me as the Omega-Wolf. We have more important matters at hand, and we can discuss my and YOUR alignments Tomorrow. But what you’re currently engaging in is semantic squabbling and ad hominem attacks, but you’ve failed to dicount the fundamental parts of my logic. In fact, this whole line of reasoning by you is thoroughly lacking town motivation.
Who said I was assuming anything? The Cabal are almost certainly gone, since there’s three witches, it makes sense there’d be three Cabal. However, even in the event there is one or two left, they will NOT target me because they would be extremely foolish to do so. You may or may not think so, but the logic is simple. They have NO way of killing scum directly, they HAVE to depend on the town and the scum to some extent. At this point, Hockey Monkey is a plus to the Cabal because she is unable to incriminate them, and the Cabal will win with the scum eliminated if a Witch dies.
This also means that they need the scum to somehow target the Third Witch. Now, they know Hockey Monkey isn’t the Witch, and they also know that the Wolves won’t target me, because I’m either pro-town (and thus telling the truth) or I’m the Omega-Wolf (and thus, they wouldn’t target me anyway)…hence, blocking me does NOT bring them any closer to their goal Tonight.
Similarly, blocking Hockey Monkey makes no sense, because she is, at worst, neutral to their winning conditions. Thus, they’ll either target Idle, or somewhat at random in the unconfirmed pool to try to minimize the Night Kills thus improving their chance of survival and the town taking out more scum, and then hoping that the third Witch will get targetted at some point before they do.
Can you justify that at all? The Cabal can’t do diddly squat to the Witches, so that’s out. Hockey Monkey helps the Town find anyone BUT Cabal… that’s GOOD for them. As I said, their incentive for blocking me, in the off chance one is still out there, is SORELY lacking.
Now, now, I’m not questioning your motives, because I can see potential pro-town motives behind your actions thus far. Besides, it’s entirely possible that you’re a well intentioned fool.
Thoughts from the darkside:
I have a few ideas running through my head and possible plans if I can work through them.
In terms of the Cabal, I’m a muppet, of course they can’t target Diomedes :smack:
If the Cabal are around they will be best served by removing town power roles at the moment, they last thing they want is to be discovered, and are better working in tandem with the night killers to take out protected town roles and then guiding the town to lynch them afterwards, which means targeting Blaster Master.
(It’s really annoying, I’m going to spending today hunting down Witch #3 from Diomedes’ hints 
)