Mafia: The Conspiracy

The Game Room
1341

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
<snip>
You continue to insist that he MUST be lying, but you are not addressing the point I put forth about the negligible, at worst, risk applied to the other case. So… What makes you so sure he MUST be lying? Why are you ignoring my case for the negligible nature of the alternative?
[/QUOTE]

Because it’s advantageous for scum to at least twist the facts in some fashion. You know this, I know this.

I’m ignoring your case for the alternative, because it assumes that a lot of claimed roles are telling the truth, when there’s a non zero chance that one of 'em is pulling the rules over our eyes, and the plan goes to shite.

1342

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Simple: he doesn’t want to get killed without advancing his own cause.

Having been outed, his goal right now is to survive this Day so he can use his Night action. And help advance his win condition.
[/QUOTE]

I don’t dispute that. However, here’s what you’re missing:

If he’s the necromancer, he’s only a danger when the zombie count plus two approaches the town’s total population minus two. That will not occur tonight. Thus, if he is the necromancer, leaving him alive poses no threat to the town.

If he is the vampire, it results in one extra kill attempt, with most of the valuable roles covered, and the one that is not, it will likely be hit by the wolves ANYWAY, which means he either wastes it by calling my bluff, wastes it by doubling up on the same target (neither of which results in an extra death) or he targets the unconfirmed pool which has a large chance of hitting scum and a low chance town, and only one role, the third witch, is of a lot of value to the town, but neither side can afford to make that pool smaller, and the witch is probably well hidden.

In fact, I don’t think the scum have the balls to go for the third witch because, based on their kill pattern thus far, they’ve been taking a lot of safe shots. In fact, I’d give big odds that they’re too chicken to try.

1343

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Because it’s advantageous for scum to at least twist the facts in some fashion. You know this, I know this.

I’m ignoring your case for the alternative, because it assumes that a lot of claimed roles are telling the truth, when there’s a non zero chance that one of 'em is pulling the rules over our eyes, and the plan goes to shite.
[/QUOTE]

So whom do you doubt? Do you doubt Sach? I’d give him pretty damn close to 100% confirmed. Based on that, and the fact the he actually called out Cat and Cat afterward admitted to it, I’d give Dio pretty damn close to 100% confirmed. Based on the quality of her claim, and information privy to me based on my actions as my role, I am very confident in Hockey’s Claim, and MHaye has given us no credible reason to doubt her. Hell, all he said was that he was a Warlock, meanwhile EVERY other claim has had secret powers… seems MIGHTY fishy to me.

I am 100% confident in my plan, for more reasons than I can divulge at this point, to the point, which I’ve said, if Hockey Monkey shows up dead tomorrow, I will submit myself to a lynch at the town’s leisure because I’ll be nasty lying scum. Meanwhile, there’s NOTHING to lose, because she’d be unprotected tonight ANYWAY.

Seriously, you’re casting a lot of doubt on my plan without any real reasons. Could it be because you’re a Wolf, or an Undead and you’re not pleased with how the next Day or Two look for your team?

1344

Could it be because you are not confirmed, and you could be lying?

1345

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
So whom do you doubt? Do you doubt Sach? I’d give him pretty damn close to 100% confirmed. Based on that, and the fact the he actually called out Cat and Cat afterward admitted to it, I’d give Dio pretty damn close to 100% confirmed. Based on the quality of her claim, and information privy to me based on my actions as my role, I am very confident in Hockey’s Claim, and MHaye has given us no credible reason to doubt her. Hell, all he said was that he was a Warlock, meanwhile EVERY other claim has had secret powers… seems MIGHTY fishy to me.

I am 100% confident in my plan, for more reasons than I can divulge at this point, to the point, which I’ve said, if Hockey Monkey shows up dead tomorrow, I will submit myself to a lynch at the town’s leisure because I’ll be nasty lying scum. Meanwhile, there’s NOTHING to lose, because she’d be unprotected tonight ANYWAY.

Seriously, you’re casting a lot of doubt on my plan without any real reasons. Could it be because you’re a Wolf, or an Undead and you’re not pleased with how the next Day or Two look for your team?
[/QUOTE]

And therein lies the rub, doesn’t it? You’re saying you believe HockeyMonkey because you have special information about her. I don’t.

I do however know that CatInTheSuit has admitted he is scum, albeit with mysterious powers that allow him to kill someone if he’s lynched (and, which, in view of his supposed Role doesn’t even make sense; it would be a simple revenge kill which wouldn’t make him win anyway). Hence I follow the simple rule: I see confirmed scum and lynch that scum.

My vote stands.

1346

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Could it be because you are not confirmed, and you could be lying?
[/QUOTE]

Blaster is either town or the Omega. For now, I think we should assume that both he and Shadow are Town, as they’ve been discovered.

1347

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
Blaster is either town or the Omega. For now, I think we should assume that both he and Shadow are Town, as they’ve been discovered.
[/QUOTE]

“…as they’ve been discovered.”?

Why should we assume that?

1348

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
Blaster is either town or the Omega. For now, I think we should assume that both he and Shadow are Town, as they’ve been discovered.
[/QUOTE]

Right.

And I think I can guess his Role. But I also think I can guess the Cat’s true Role.

And Blaster thinks that he can protect people (or at least outbluff the scum). But he can’t protect anyone (I guess) from recruitment. And the worst case scenario which he doesn’t take into consideration is for the Vampire to survive the Day, infect (or recruit) during the Night and actually make the situation worse for the Town. (In case you’re not understanding me: in case we don’t lynch the Cat, he’ll probably recruit someone, preferably confirmed, under guise of a failed Nightkill and none would be the wiser)

1349

Ok, I went back to reread Blaster’s possibilities…

I don’t think Pleonast is bastardy enough to make CatInASuit’s Bomb role work for Night kills as well, so it now comes down to whether I believe Hockeymonkey (and by extension Blaster Master) and lynch an unknown instead of lynching a confessed scumbag.

[Keanu Reaves]
Woah, Deja vu
[/Keanu Reaves]

It is a little worrying that mhaye hasn’t posted anything since the 21st.

Since we have somewhere around 24 hours before the deadline…I think I’ll ponder myself into a headache (again, sigh) a little longer before making my final decision.

1350

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Right.

And I think I can guess his Role. But I also think I can guess the Cat’s true Role.

And Blaster thinks that he can protect people (or at least outbluff the scum). But he can’t protect anyone (I guess) from recruitment. And the worst case scenario which he doesn’t take into consideration is for the Vampire to survive the Day, infect (or recruit) during the Night and actually make the situation worse for the Town. (In case you’re not understanding me: in case we don’t lynch the Cat, he’ll probably recruit someone, preferably confirmed, under guise of a failed Nightkill and none would be the wiser)
[/QUOTE]

IIRC, according to Sach, the recruiting power would look mysteriously like a Witch Doctor protection. Thus, particularly in light of the roles at hand, a recruitment meaningless because we will either have to guess between whether he was recruited, or whether Idle claims to have jujued him. If it’s the latter, it’s a recruitment, it’s meaningless because it’ll just be an lynch we’d have to use ANYWAY.

Plus, I ALSO happen to know, as an extension of my role, that some roles are immune to recruitment. How do I know this? Because MY role is immune to recruitment (based on a question raised to Pleo after the discussion of recruitment came up). Based on this knowledge, it is easy to surmise that it is possible that there are other pro-town roles that would also be immune to recruitment. I would ALSO suspect that the scum either were aware of this, or were suspecting it, and so wouldn’t use it on a role that would likely be immune

1351

About twenty-three hours to go. By my count, the votes are tied which will mean no lynch.

1352

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
“…as they’ve been discovered.”?

Why should we assume that?
[/QUOTE]

Is there any doubt in your mind that I’m a witch? Or that I investigated the two of them?

1353

[QUOTE=Pleonast]
About twenty-three hours to go. By my count, the votes are tied which will mean no lynch.
[/QUOTE]

I’m still not 100% convinced that this is the right thing to do. In fact, it gives me a sinking feeling in my gut, but I’m going to trust Blaster and Dio on this one and

Unvote CatInASuit
Vote MHaye

1354

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Idle, it is NOT in your best interest to even consider speaking with Rysto tonight. We have no remote reason to believe Dio is anything but a Witch, and if he is, it will be easily revealed after Tonight that he’s a liar. Otherwise, he’s pretty much assured to survive the Night.

Since your speaking is only a one time power, it is best left for a situation when there isn’t a living witch to reveal the information for us. Further, part of my plan for Tomorrow involves you remaining alive which is why I requested you self-juju.

I really can’t POSSIBLY see WHY you’d think it’d be a good idea to use your one time power to talk to a Witch when we still have two more alive, with one revealed.
[/QUOTE]

You play your role and I’ll play mine.

If you are true Town, don’t be so quick to put a lack of faith in me.

[QUOTE=Zoggie]
Just getting caught up now…have been busy/having difficulties.

Okay. I’m getting my vote in now because I’m afraid I might not be around/have Internet access this time tomorrow. I guess MHaye seems like a surer thing. Plus, I have a soft spot for Diomedes, ever since his panicked “Dio not scum!” outburst the other Night.

[oog]He recently changed his name. The letters of each word never used to be capitalized. It used to read: Catinasuit

The “everyone thinking he was female” is what made him change the letters of the new words to caps[/oog]

[QUOTE=dotchan]
Undead = bad, Necromancer = bad, Vampire = bad. If CatInASuit is indeed the Necromancer, than lynching him now puts a stop to the zombies.
[/quote]

And possibly kills off one of the Witches.

I read the rest even though it’s snipped. Me, I can see it going both ways. If I were really the Avatar (and knew it) in MV, I would have said it at the end saying “fine. I’m this. Take your chances”. Heck, I even did it not knowing if I was but hoping I would be it.

I can see someone, if they had a curse power on them, possibly revealing it and making people scared to vote for them.

If he’s lying (and is a Vamp):

  1. The Vig can kill him at Night.
  2. If alive by morning, there is no Vig–and we kill him that Day

If he’s telling the truth (and is a Necro):

  1. His secret power very well could be real.
  2. We’d lose a Witch.
  3. The Vig can kill him at Night
  4. If alive by Dawn–there is no Vig–and we kill him that Day
  5. If dead by Dawn–there MAY be a Vig or scum may have killed him
  6. If 5, great for us.

shrugs I just feel it’s a bit better to wait, just in case.

I still have a few posts to go before I’m fully caught up.

1355

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
Blaster is either town or the Omega. For now, I think we should assume that both he and Shadow are Town, as they’ve been discovered.
[/QUOTE]

And this is the only reason I’m not highly suspicious of BM myself. Because if ANYONE is the Omega, it’s got to be..

…hey…
…HEY!

Leggo, Dio. Take your hand off of my mouth! Okay, okay! I’ll shut up. Sheesh.

1356

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
You play your role and I’ll play mine.

If you are true Town, don’t be so quick to put a lack of faith in me.
[/QUOTE]

You seem to be insistent on talking to Rysto, and I don’t understand the logic behind it. To me, it would be like going “Hey Dio, you can investigate, why don’t you look at MHaye and double check Hockey Monkey’s reading?”

In my mind, you’re saying “I’m going to talk to Rysto, just to be sure”… for what, to find out who the other Witch is? I expect that Dio will self-protect Tonight… he can tell us Tomorrow, if the Witches think it’s a good idea.

1357

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
You play your role and I’ll play mine.

If you are true Town, don’t be so quick to put a lack of faith in me.
[/QUOTE]

What a laugh. :rolleyes:

1358

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
And this is the only reason I’m not highly suspicious of BM myself. Because if ANYONE is the Omega, it’s got to be..

…hey…
…HEY!

Leggo, Dio. Take your hand off of my mouth! Okay, okay! I’ll shut up. Sheesh.
[/QUOTE]

My, Idle, for someone who’s questioning my towniness, you sure throw a lot of baseless smudges around. :dubious:

For now, we have two very reasonable lynch candidates. If you want to harp on some suspicion that I’m not pro-town, you may want to wait until at least tomorrow, when a lot more information, and I’ll likely be making my role-claim, otherwise, well… I’m not quite sure what you’re doing.

1359

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
You seem to be insistent on talking to Rysto, and I don’t understand the logic behind it. To me, it would be like going “Hey Dio, you can investigate, why don’t you look at MHaye and double check Hockey Monkey’s reading?”

In my mind, you’re saying “I’m going to talk to Rysto, just to be sure”… for what, to find out who the other Witch is? I expect that Dio will self-protect Tonight… he can tell us Tomorrow, if the Witches think it’s a good idea.
[/QUOTE]

But seriously, Idle, talking to Rysto isn’t going to be that advantageous to you. Let me say first that I’ve already placed a few choice pointers as to whom the third witch is, so you being able to verify him in the case of my untimely death isn’t going to help. And that’s not even getting into the fact that if I’m dead, people who already distrust you won’t trust what you say about the results of talking to Rysto any more. Still, if you want to spend your investigative skills productively, trying working on putting together a step-by-step case against someone (even if its Shadow) for the possibility that the Vig kills Cat tonight, and we don’t have an obvious lynch target for tomorrow.
Eventually, however, we’re going to know all three witch identities, know that at least one of the two of Blaster or Shadow is town, and you, Hockey and sache are town. Ridding the town of the rest of the scum should be fairly easy, if you can come up with good logical cases against any of the others, as long as they’re not just based on your hunches.

1360

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
You seem to be insistent on talking to Rysto, and I don’t understand the logic behind it. To me, it would be like going “Hey Dio, you can investigate, why don’t you look at MHaye and double check Hockey Monkey’s reading?”

In my mind, you’re saying “I’m going to talk to Rysto, just to be sure”… for what, to find out who the other Witch is? I expect that Dio will self-protect Tonight… he can tell us Tomorrow, if the Witches think it’s a good idea.
[/QUOTE]

Unless Dio or the other Witch is dead.

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
My, Idle, for someone who’s questioning my towniness, you sure throw a lot of baseless smudges around. :dubious:

For now, we have two very reasonable lynch candidates. If you want to harp on some suspicion that I’m not pro-town, you may want to wait until at least tomorrow, when a lot more information, and I’ll likely be making my role-claim, otherwise, well… I’m not quite sure what you’re doing.
[/QUOTE]

The only suspicion I have against you is mild and hinges on the fact that you are so sure of your plan when I can think of one main flaw right off the bat. That if there is at least one Cabalist left, they could just block you (or any other role they see fit that they happen to believe the claim of) and then your plan doesn’t work out so well.

You seem to think that everyone should follow this plan, too and anyone who voices otherwise, you seem to be telling them how to play their role.

So like I said above, why don’t all the roles just play how they see fit and do what they think is best for Town if they are true Town power roles? I can’t really see how that would be a bad thing.