Mafia: The Conspiracy

The Game Room
1321

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
If you can actually show where I quote YOU and twist your words, then I will most humbly apologize.

(On preview: sorry, Dio, you’re right. I’m going to stop it with Idle now).
[/QUOTE]

You didn’t quote anyone in that post, so how can I do that? But you did say “these suggestions that everyone who votes for Cat are scum” so you must have been talking about someone.

Dio has said that he said that, but so did I, even before seeing any post he made addressing it. And just knowing your habit of seemingly twisting things I’ve done or said, it reads like that post could regard me (alone or as well as).

1322

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
You didn’t quote anyone in that post, so how can I do that? But you did say “these suggestions that everyone who votes for Cat are scum” so you must have been talking about someone.

Dio has said that he said that, but so did I, even before seeing any post he made addressing it. And just knowing your habit of seemingly twisting things I’ve done or said, it reads like that post could regard me (alone or as well as).
[/QUOTE]

Idle. Nobody’s lynching you or Shadow today. Or tomorrow. Let’s focus on the matters at hand.

1323

Awww…no Shadow lynch toDay? :frowning:

Oh…okay…kicks stone and goes off to sulk

1324

I feel like I’m going to be scarce tomorrow - it’s midterms week and I am buried in papers to grade - so I’m going to go ahead and

vote MHaye

1325

Planning from the scumside:

Well having read **Blaster Master’s ** plan, its time for a little counterstrategy.

He may or may not be lying, the question is, is it worth trying to find him out. A no-kill by the wolves means that Hockey Monkey has nothing to go on to reveal another wolf. Consider if it is that bad thing or not.

If the Cabal are still around, I would not consider trying to block Blaster Master, but Diomedes, if he is still around, to prevent him gaining any new information. Blocking Idle Thoughts, as per my previous comments, does nothing to assist us on this night.

This will force Blaster Master, if he is not lying and can cover more players, to include Diomedes as a protect. If he is lying, then Diomedes is open. If he can only protect two players, then he has to leave one of them open.

Killing **sachertorte ** is not a bad idea. It removes a known town player and causes confusion over who has been killed. Confusion helps us more than it helps the town.

Idle Thoughts is curently Mr WIFOM, there are better targets methinks.

I think the wolves and vampires should not try going into the unknown pool, unless you have got a complete lock on the third witch. Leave that pool as large as possible.

I would suggest our night kill roles look at the mostly confirmed townies and take them out. BM, HM, Dio, Sachertorte

Hey, planning for the scum is fun :smiley:

1326

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
What I don’t get is why Idle Thoughts, he of the “I am the Avatar. I know it” claim, would so willingly believe CatInASuit’s claim. I just don’t get it. But then again, it seems that I rarely understand Idle Thoughts.

The most compelling (new) reason to go with MHaye is Blaster Master’s gambit. If Blaster can guarantee Hockey Monkey’s survival into the next day, then I see we have a 50% chance of Hockey Monkey determining scum Tomorrow, which she can report the Day after that. This is certainly more compelling than thinking that Hockey Monkey would make it far enough into future Days to report back actionable data without help.

So I am not as against the MHaye lynch as I was before, but I have a few points I need to think through.
<rambling follows>
Based on Diomedes’s data, Blaster Master is NOT Cabal and NOT Undead. The Witch data does not preclude Blaster Master’s being a Wolf; however, his wanting to lynch Wolf Candidate MHaye instead of undead candidate CatInASuit makes little sense for a Wolf. The only way Blaster Master could be a Wolf in this scenario is if MHaye is not a Wolf (unlikely).
So at this point I am trusting of Blaster Master’s motives.

If I understand the plan correctly, Blaster Master will guarantee protection of himself and Hockey Monkey. Diomedes will be able to self-protect. Idle Thoughts will be able to self-enchant. Thus, the most important roles will be off the table from scum kills Tonight. Hopefully, a Vig will take out CatInASuit at Night.

Two die at night (probably me, but that’s okay, I’ve already reported my secret).

Hockey Monkey can investigate a dead body (50% chance of guessing the wolf target), but needs to survive one more night to share the results.

Tomorrow, Lynch CatInASuit (if alive) or one of the unknowns.

Tomorrow Night, how do we guarantee Hockey Monkey lives to see morning? Also, this plan has a 50% success rate (or 50% failure rate for the pessimists).

As you can see, I’m close, but not fully onboard. Satisfy that Hockey can survive two nights, and we’ll be in business.
[/QUOTE]

You have most of the plan laid out well. And, you are correct that Hockey Monkey will need to survive another Night. I have more to my plan for that as well; however, I do not believe it is in the town’s best interest for me to reveal that portion at this time. As I am guaranteeing the survival of all of the roles necessary to that portion of the plan, I would prefer to reveal it Tomorrow in light of the Day’s lynch, the Night’s deaths, and a full role-claim on my behalf.

1327

[QUOTE=CatInASuit]
**
I would suggest our night kill roles look at the mostly confirmed townies and take them out. BM, HM, Dio, Sachertorte

Hey, planning for the scum is fun :smiley:
[/QUOTE]

Would you quit it? Scum aren’t allowed to plan out in the open! Go find the Vicar and pray for your salvation in the soon-to-come afterlife! :smiley:

1328

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
By the way, why are we all listening to someone? Why don’t the power roles just do what they want to do?

I mean, pardon me, but I know of two very possibly Witches now. Why wouldn’t I want to talk to dead Rysto toNight and not only learn who the last Witch is but have both that Witch and Dio know I’m telling the truth from then on?

Not saying I’m going to do that toNight or not, but it puzzles me why some are willing to go along precise with someone’s plan. Even, I, who feels Blaster is Town, wouldn’t want everyone just to be led around. Why don’t the power roles just all do what we think is best and most unexpected toNight instead of laying it all out and planning it all out. Because doing that, scum will find the loopholes or just do other things. I just feel it’s best to keep them guessing rather than tell them exactly what we all should do toNight.
[/QUOTE]

Idle, it is NOT in your best interest to even consider speaking with Rysto tonight. We have no remote reason to believe Dio is anything but a Witch, and if he is, it will be easily revealed after Tonight that he’s a liar. Otherwise, he’s pretty much assured to survive the Night.

Since your speaking is only a one time power, it is best left for a situation when there isn’t a living witch to reveal the information for us. Further, part of my plan for Tomorrow involves you remaining alive which is why I requested you self-juju.

I really can’t POSSIBLY see WHY you’d think it’d be a good idea to use your one time power to talk to a Witch when we still have two more alive, with one revealed.

1329

[QUOTE=CatInASuit]
Hey, planning for the scum is fun :smiley:
[/QUOTE]

:smiley:

1330

Just getting caught up now…have been busy/having difficulties.

Okay. I’m getting my vote in now because I’m afraid I might not be around/have Internet access this time tomorrow. I guess MHaye seems like a surer thing. Plus, I have a soft spot for Diomedes, ever since his panicked “Dio not scum!” outburst the other Night.

I’m also having a lot of trouble seeing CatInASuit as a girl. You’d think the suit aspect of it would help, but noooo.

unvote CatInASuit

vote MHaye

1331

Ok, I wanted to say this yesterday, but I thought it’d be better to wait until my status was revealed in Firefly.

For those of you that aren’t aware, scum lie. I know this, I’ve played four games as scum so far.

Every single one of my teammates in Firefly who was at the gallows lied. It’s kind of fun, actually, trying to fabricate a story that you can get the whole town to believe. For example, look at me claiming Doctor in the Asylum game.

What’s my point, you ask? CatinaSuit is lying, and he’s even messing with all your heads with his whole “planning” posts. Although I can see where he’s coming from, being scum so many times, in that he’d rather have a scum side win than the town side, if he was going to lose anyway, the problem is that he hasn’t lost yet. This is just an elaborate scheme. Not only did he make up a way to be able to kill a witch, he also tried to get buddy-buddy with the other scum factions, to try and help his cause.

I think there’s absolutely zero chance that he’s telling the truth about his extra power, because scum lie. Why in the world would he tell us that he could take out a witch, instead of just doing it? He picked a role that nobody in their right mind would counterclaim.

My vote stands.

1332

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Ok, I wanted to say this yesterday, but I thought it’d be better to wait until my status was revealed in Firefly.

For those of you that aren’t aware, scum lie. I know this, I’ve played four games as scum so far.

Every single one of my teammates in Firefly who was at the gallows lied. It’s kind of fun, actually, trying to fabricate a story that you can get the whole town to believe. For example, look at me claiming Doctor in the Asylum game.

What’s my point, you ask? CatinaSuit is lying, and he’s even messing with all your heads with his whole “planning” posts. Although I can see where he’s coming from, being scum so many times, in that he’d rather have a scum side win than the town side, if he was going to lose anyway, the problem is that he hasn’t lost yet. This is just an elaborate scheme. Not only did he make up a way to be able to kill a witch, he also tried to get buddy-buddy with the other scum factions, to try and help his cause.

I think there’s absolutely zero chance that he’s telling the truth about his extra power, because scum lie. Why in the world would he tell us that he could take out a witch, instead of just doing it? He picked a role that nobody in their right mind would counterclaim.

My vote stands.
[/QUOTE]

I will agree that he is probably lying; however, what we have to do is a risk-benefit analysis. I laid out the six possibilities between the actuality of his power, his true role, and whom we lynch. Of those six, we only benefit IF he is the vampire and then only by having one fewer kill attempt tonight, where the negative, we at least still get new info for Hockey whom will live long enough to give the information to us. Meanwhile, the negative if he’s telling the truth is, we lose a confirmed townie, the ability for him to confirm the other witch, the added protection or information they would provide, and whatever secret power he has, but has not yet explained to us.

IOW, yes, I agree that the probability of the latter is small, but the risk is enormous; meanwhile, probability for the former is larger, but the risk is negligible at worst and POSSIBLY in our favor, if they decide to go after the third Witch or perhaps another power-role in the unconfirmed pool and miss and hit scum.

1333

Undead = bad, Necromancer = bad, Vampire = bad. If CatInASuit is indeed the Necromancer, than lynching him now puts a stop to the zombies. CatInASuit is the Vampire, then lynching him now puts a stop to one of the Night kills.

Lynching Mhaye would only be an equivalent exchange if Mhaye is the last werewolf (and according to the various investigation results there are at most 3 left including Mhaye).

I’d rather lynch Cat toDay and have any potential vig take out Mhaye toNight. (Because if Cat really did have a Bomb ability, I think he would have more likely kept quiet about it, then gloated after he blew up on Diomedes or whomever.)

My vote stands as well.

1334

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
<snip>

IOW, yes, I agree that the probability of the latter is small, but the risk is enormous; meanwhile, probability for the former is larger, but the risk is negligible at worst and POSSIBLY in our favor, if they decide to go after the third Witch or perhaps another power-role in the unconfirmed pool and miss and hit scum.
[/QUOTE]

I believe the probability of the latter is zero.

1335

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Ok, I wanted to say this yesterday, but I thought it’d be better to wait until my status was revealed in Firefly.

For those of you that aren’t aware, scum lie. I know this, I’ve played four games as scum so far.

Every single one of my teammates in Firefly who was at the gallows lied. It’s kind of fun, actually, trying to fabricate a story that you can get the whole town to believe. For example, look at me claiming Doctor in the Asylum game.

What’s my point, you ask? CatinaSuit is lying, and he’s even messing with all your heads with his whole “planning” posts. Although I can see where he’s coming from, being scum so many times, in that he’d rather have a scum side win than the town side, if he was going to lose anyway, the problem is that he hasn’t lost yet. This is just an elaborate scheme. Not only did he make up a way to be able to kill a witch, he also tried to get buddy-buddy with the other scum factions, to try and help his cause.

I think there’s absolutely zero chance that he’s telling the truth about his extra power, because scum lie. Why in the world would he tell us that he could take out a witch, instead of just doing it? He picked a role that nobody in their right mind would counterclaim.

My vote stands.
[/QUOTE]

Heh. You don’t know how many times I was about to disclose your “perfect record” as scum during this game. Good thing you did it now.

Still, I must agree with you.

Blaster Master asked why HockeyMonkey would involve MHaye in her false claim. The answer is rather simple: the scum need the Vigilante out of the way. Now. Look at the Deaths of the past Nights. My guess is at least during two Nights our Vigilante has correctly picked scum as his/her target.

And look at HockeyMonkey’s claim. She was actually stressing the need to kill MHaye during the Night! (which would make the Vigilante commit suicide if (s)he followed it through). Sure, afterward B]HockeyMonkey** would be toast as well, but at least the Vigilante wouldn’t be picking the scum off one by one.

And why are we following admitted scum’s pretty transparent plan? (I’m talking about CatInTheSuit). If, as he says, he had this “bomb” assigned to him, why would he even have told us? Like he himself said, the best use of his supposed power to insure a scum win would be to hide it to kill Dio, not to disclose it!

So, instead, he discloses false information. His real Role isn’t the Necromancer but (probably) the Vampire. He survives until toNight and even if the Vigilante kills him, he adds another Death toNight and the Necromancer will have at least one more Night to increase the number of zombies… which incidentally helps CatInTheSuit’s win condition.

My vote stands.

1336

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I will agree that he is probably lying; however, what we have to do is a risk-benefit analysis. I laid out the six possibilities between the actuality of his power, his true role, and whom we lynch. Of those six, we only benefit IF he is the vampire and then only by having one fewer kill attempt tonight, where the negative, we at least still get new info for Hockey whom will live long enough to give the information to us. Meanwhile, the negative if he’s telling the truth is, we lose a confirmed townie, the ability for him to confirm the other witch, the added protection or information they would provide, and whatever secret power he has, but has not yet explained to us.

IOW, yes, I agree that the probability of the latter is small, but the risk is enormous; meanwhile, probability for the former is larger, but the risk is negligible at worst and POSSIBLY in our favor, if they decide to go after the third Witch or perhaps another power-role in the unconfirmed pool and miss and hit scum.
[/QUOTE]

Question: why do you accept HockeyMonkey’s claim as the unvarnished truth? Why do you dismiss MHaye’s version as absolute lie?

1337

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Question: why do you accept HockeyMonkey’s claim as the unvarnished truth? Why do you dismiss MHaye’s version as absolute lie?
[/QUOTE]

I have reasons to believe Hockey Monkey’s claim independent of MHaye’s claim as a consequence of my own actions as part of my role. However, I cannot present my reasoning without a full role claim, which I will do most likely do Tomorrow. Thus, from that perspective, MHaye’s claim does not make sense because he has not offered any explanation to satisfy her reading.

1338

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
I believe the probability of the latter is zero.
[/QUOTE]

That would be foolish. I can assure you there are times when scum WILL speak truth, specifically when it will serve them to know parts of it OR when they think it will not be believed. With a mindset such that scum will ALWAYS lie, you set yourself up to be fooled when they do not.

I postulate that it is non-zero (though still likely small) and, that the risk associated with it is very large, when we can, instead, choose one with a higher level of predictability and with virtually no risk.

You continue to insist that he MUST be lying, but you are not addressing the point I put forth about the negligible, at worst, risk applied to the other case. So… What makes you so sure he MUST be lying? Why are you ignoring my case for the negligible nature of the alternative?

1339

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
That would be foolish. I can assure you there are times when scum WILL speak truth, specifically when it will serve them to know parts of it OR when they think it will not be believed. With a mindset such that scum will ALWAYS lie, you set yourself up to be fooled when they do not.

I postulate that it is non-zero (though still likely small) and, that the risk associated with it is very large, when we can, instead, choose one with a higher level of predictability and with virtually no risk.

You continue to insist that he MUST be lying, but you are not addressing the point I put forth about the negligible, at worst, risk applied to the other case. So… What makes you so sure he MUST be lying? Why are you ignoring my case for the negligible nature of the alternative?
[/QUOTE]

Simple: he doesn’t want to get killed without advancing his own cause.

Having been outed, his goal right now is to survive this Day so he can use his Night action. And help advance his win condition.

1340

[QUOTE=dotchan]
Undead = bad, Necromancer = bad, Vampire = bad. If CatInASuit is indeed the Necromancer, than lynching him now puts a stop to the zombies. CatInASuit is the Vampire, then lynching him now puts a stop to one of the Night kills.

Lynching Mhaye would only be an equivalent exchange if Mhaye is the last werewolf (and according to the various investigation results there are at most 3 left including Mhaye).

I’d rather lynch Cat toDay and have any potential vig take out Mhaye toNight. (Because if Cat really did have a Bomb ability, I think he would have more likely kept quiet about it, then gloated after he blew up on Diomedes or whomever.)

My vote stands as well.
[/QUOTE]

Dear God… is EVERYONE ignoring my logic? PLEASE go back and reread my post where I stated the six possible outcomes within the context of my plan. The probability that the kills will double-up, be wasted on a protected role, or be forced into the unconfirmed pool, are very high, thus the extra kill attempt is negligible. Plus, we gain the bonus of ensuring Hockey Monkey gets an extra read. And we account for the possibility, however small it may be, that Cat IS telling the truth.

I would GLADLY take an extra kill attempt that will either likely double up, be wasted, or even be beneficial to the town in exchange for gaining one more read from Hockey Monkey (giving us one scum) AND at least one more read from the Witches. That two scum for a CHANCE at losing a townie.