Mafia: The Conspiracy

The Game Room
1781

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Ok, this is part of what I was thinking earlier. I was leaning towards waiting, but I don’t think it will matter as much as I thought I did if** Diggit **reads it before he claims.

Now, Hazel and Zoggie both claimed roles with night actions. These roles, “coincidentally”, are both killing roles. Who can kill at night now that the vampires are all gone? That’s right, the wolves. And how many wolves do we think are left? Two wolves likely left, two players claiming (possible) night killing roles.

Most everybody is familiar with how BlaM was the Vig in M2, and there was a separate vote each day for who he should kill. There was a big discussion in that game concerning how a claimed Vig could be scum, and just pick off people the town voted on. They would know the doctor wouldn’t be protecting them, and would be able to have unabated kills until the town picked a scum target, and they’d have until then to explain their way out of it.

This may be a long shot, and there’s probably several holes in my theory, but I think my vote is going to lie with Diggit, per this theory, pending further analysis.
[/QUOTE]

Well, here’s a simple solution… if both of them make it through the Day, have Hazel target Zoggie and Zoggie target Hazel. If Zoggie dies and Hazel doesn’t, then Zoggie was lying scum and deserved to die, but Hazel could still be a Wolf. If neither dies, Hazel is lying scum, and Zoggie is indeterminent. If both die, they’re both telling the truth… but that is impossible.

At least one of them MUST be scum because I would consider Dotchan confirmed for several reasons (among them Idle staying dead and that a Vicar must exist to balance out the undead, and there’s no counter-claim, which a wise true Vicar would have done Yesterday). Thus, unless all of Shadow, Diggit, and Rugger are the remaining scum, at least one must lie amongst Zoggie and Hazel. Plus, due to knowledge that Dio hinted at, I can confirm that at least one of Shadow, Diggit, and Rugger is definitely town.

Thus, this is a simple test that both should be inclined to follow, because whichever (if either) is telling the truth, they can be 100% certain the other is scum.

:smiley:

1782

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Well, here’s a simple solution… if both of them make it through the Day, have Hazel target Zoggie and Zoggie target Hazel. If Zoggie dies and Hazel doesn’t, then Zoggie was lying scum and deserved to die, but Hazel could still be a Wolf. If neither dies, Hazel is lying scum, and Zoggie is indeterminent. If both die, they’re both telling the truth… but that is impossible.

[/QUOTE]

Yeah, but they won’t make it through the day. Because Zoggie’s the necro (I hope). So we should lynch her. :smiley:

1783

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
Yeah, but they won’t make it through the day. Because Zoggie’s the necro (I hope). So we should lynch her. :smiley:
[/QUOTE]

Why do you think that? A wolf can give the identical bad fake claim that a necro can.

1784

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Why do you think that? A wolf can give the identical bad fake claim that a necro can.
[/QUOTE]

Oh, don’t get me wrong. This is a total vibe thing going on. But I am fairly certain that Zoggie’s some brand of scum.
And for what it’s worth, you’re my number two necro target. But these guesses is totally coming out of my butt. Because a necro doesn’t have any night conversations, and doesn’t do any killings, I don’t even know what sort of ‘tells’ to look for. This is purely a guessing game, I think, unless someone has additional information they’re not sharing.

1785

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Plus, due to knowledge that Dio hinted at, I can confirm that at least one of Shadow, Diggit, and Rugger is definitely town.

[/QUOTE]

Are you waiting to hear from Diggit before you put that knowledge out there?

1786

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
Are you waiting to hear from Diggit before you put that knowledge out there?
[/QUOTE]

We will see how his role claim comes out, and then go from there.

1787

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
We will see how his role claim comes out, and then go from there.
[/QUOTE]

That’s cool - just wondering.

1788

I love a good trap, but traps are more effective when they are hidden.

[QUOTE=Zoggie]
As for my role not having a subtype, did Idle? He was a Witch Doctor–he wasn’t anything more specific than that.
[/QUOTE]

Idle Thoughts claimed Witchdoctor (Speaker for the Dead), which aligned with his secret power.
Enders Game reference I think.

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Ok, this is part of what I was thinking earlier. I was leaning towards waiting, but I don’t think it will matter as much as I thought I did if** Diggit **reads it before he claims.

Now, Hazel and Zoggie both claimed roles with night actions. These roles, “coincidentally”, are both killing roles. Who can kill at night now that the vampires are all gone? That’s right, the wolves. And how many wolves do we think are left? Two wolves likely left, two players claiming (possible) night killing roles.

Most everybody is familiar with how BlaM was the Vig in M2, and there was a separate vote each day for who he should kill. There was a big discussion in that game concerning how a claimed Vig could be scum, and just pick off people the town voted on. They would know the doctor wouldn’t be protecting them, and would be able to have unabated kills until the town picked a scum target, and they’d have until then to explain their way out of it.

This may be a long shot, and there’s probably several holes in my theory, but I think my vote is going to lie with Diggit, per this theory, pending further analysis.
[/QUOTE]
I didn’t follow this at all. The idea seems to have been about Hazel and Zoggie, then suddenly the suspicion is on Diggit? :confused:

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Well, here’s a simple solution… if both of them make it through the Day, have Hazel target Zoggie and Zoggie target Hazel. If Zoggie dies and Hazel doesn’t, then Zoggie was lying scum and deserved to die, but Hazel could still be a Wolf. If neither dies, Hazel is lying scum, and Zoggie is indeterminent. If both die, they’re both telling the truth… <snip>
[/QUOTE]
If they are both telling the truth Hazel will die. However, we cannot reconstruct ‘truth’ from the outcomes because scum could intervene.

1789

Any surviving Magician or Vigilante should target an UNKNOWN tonight. The chance of a hypothetical Vig hitting Scum is high, and even if the Vig misses and hits Town, taking out and unknown is totally worth it. If the Vig kills unknown tonight, and kills unknown Tomorrow night (all this will be before Pleonast reveals the alignment of the first Vig kill*) We should be able to wrap this up.
Of course, we don’t actually have a Vig in this game so this discussion is moot, but just in case we do…

  • I checked way back that my reveals of alignment have no effect on the Vigilante. Should the Vigilante kill Town and I reveal as such, the Vig is safe until Pleonast’s public reveal.
1790

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
<snip>
I didn’t follow this at all. The idea seems to have been about Hazel and Zoggie, then suddenly the suspicion is on Diggit? :confused: <snip>
[/QUOTE]

I’m postulating that all three are scum. Hazel and Zoggie are wolves. Then Diggit must be the necro.

1791

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]

(snip)
Plus, due to knowledge that Dio hinted at, I can confirm that at least one of Shadow, Diggit, and Rugger is definitely town.

(snip)
[/QUOTE]

Actually, I can do a bit better than that: according to Dio, you investigated Shadow and came up “Town”.

If I’m right about that, we have:

**Shadow **as Town
Rugger as the Omega Wolf

I am the last freemason, whose “secret power” is that of being the accountant… thus I know there were only 4 masons at the game’s start.

I didn’t counterclaim Rugger because I was hoping that he’d miscalculated. When Pleonast disclosed Hal’s role, I decided against a counterclaim simply because I didn’t want to derail the Cat’s lynch.

1792

Great. Two Freemasons, each one saying the other is lying. Is there any way to prove either claim? I am in no state to think - I’ve just had too much wine.

1793

[QUOTE=HazelNutCoffee]
Great. Two Freemasons, each one saying the other is lying. Is there any way to prove either claim? I am in no state to think - I’ve just had too much wine.
[/QUOTE]

Nope. Other than lynching one of us and waiting for the next Evening to figure out our claim. (Or, failing that, for events during the Night).

But look on the bright side: Two (or three) less people who can be the Necromancer.

1794

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
<snip>
I didn’t counterclaim Rugger because I was hoping that he’d miscalculated. When Pleonast disclosed Hal’s role, I decided against a counterclaim simply because I didn’t want to derail the Cat’s lynch.
[/QUOTE]

Ok, this is all kinds of messed up.

First, if you were a Freemason, why didn’t you try to show me the sign when I claimed, or the next Day?

Second, how could I have “miscalculated”? I had no idea how many others there were to start with. There was no calculation on my part.

Third, the reason I said there were no “powers that could confirm me”, when I was asked, is because the secret powers that were granted to the Freemasons only worked if there were more than one left alive. With only me surviving, I was SoL. When I read my PM, I thought of it as Captain Planet, iow, “With Our Powers Combined…”

If there were two or more remaining, we’d be able to track down one killer. Well, indirectly. The flavor is that a group of Freemasons would be hanging out, would hear a killing happen, and try to intervene. Although the attempted killer would run off, the victim would be able to identify the attacker, since it was only attempted.

Of course, we’d have to chose amongst ourselves who to hang out near that Night. It wouldn’t matter if it was the attacker or the victim, the effect would be the same. But, before that could happen, we’d have to have identified each other during the Day.

A slight clarification about the meaning of Day, while we’re at it. I was slightly confused when I got my PM, that said I could show my sign to anybody at any time during the Day. I interpreted this as being a 24 Hour (capital H) period, so I PMed Pleo with my first “flash”, if you will, during the first Night. In retrospect, I should have waited until near the end of the first Day, so I could have picked up any breadcrumbs that only a fellow Mason would have been looking for.

And, the biggest fax paus is that there’s no way the Cat’s lynch could have been “simply derailed”, because we knew** Cat** was undead, which was the biggest (and most easily eliminated if known) threat to the town, the wolves, and the Cabal at that point in time (and now).

Zoggie’s claim is shaky, Hazel’s raises an eyebrow, but **Diggit’**s claim is just flat out wrong.

As per my previous explanation,

Vote DiggitC

1795

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Ok, this is all kinds of messed up.

First, if you were a Freemason, why didn’t you try to show me the sign when I claimed, or the next Day?

Second, how could I have “miscalculated”? I had no idea how many others there were to start with. There was no calculation on my part.

Third, the reason I said there were no “powers that could confirm me”, when I was asked, is because the secret powers that were granted to the Freemasons only worked if there were more than one left alive. With only me surviving, I was SoL. When I read my PM, I thought of it as Captain Planet, iow, “With Our Powers Combined…”

(snip)
[/QUOTE]

Simple:

  1. I sent my choice to “check your status” during Day 2. Why you? Well, because in all the games I have seen you play you have been scum. And I wanted to get you off the table ASAP
  2. Simple: as the Omega Wolf your best bet was to claim before anyone checked you out but as soon as the last mason was “off the table”. You gambled one of the dead of the last Night (at the time) was a Mason (thus making it 3 dead masons) and thinking there were only 3 masons in the game.
  3. Interesting. So what is it, do you or don’t you have secret powers? I already stated my full claim (including secret powers). I gather you say you DO have secret powers, now decommissioned as there is just one freemason left (me, of course).

As it stands, I’m quite willing to get lynched myself right now. After all, that would give the town a good chance that the Night after this one the Vig could pick off one of the (two?) remaining wolves. And one of the necromancer candidates (namely: me) would be off the list. The town would know who the Omega Wolf is (with very good certainty), taking HIM of the list as well.

Like several people have said: there’s pressing need to get the necromancer asap.

1796

Well… now we have all our cards on the table. Well, all our cards except for Shadow’s. Shadow is definitely not the necro, but I will expect a claim from him tomorrow, and whatever information he can spare. For right now, I will say: Diggit is not our man. While he may be the Omega, he’s definitely not the Necro. We investigated him last night, and he came up Town.

Honestly, I believe his claim a little more than Santos Rugger. But that’s besidethe point right now.
Our lynch pool is Zoggie, HazelNut, and Santos, if we’re going to kill the Necro tonight. One of those three is definitely the Necro… hopefully at least one of them is a wolf, so if we mislynch the Necro, the wolves will know for sure whom the Necro is. I hope the Wolves will try to outthink the town in an endgame rather than letting the undead win tonight if they kill a confirmed townie.

I’m still keeping with my vote of Zoggie. If she’s a wolf, it might behoove her to claim. I, andthe other town will back off, and although we’ll lynch her tomorrow, it will still give the other wolf a chance at winning. If she false-claims wolf, the Wolves will know she’s the Necro, and can kill her tonight. If she is a wolf, I’m strongly leaning towards Santos Rugger as the Necro.

1797

Okay, just to throw some fuel on the fire… and to clarify a bit on what Dio said without giving it all away.

Last Night, we investigated one between Diggit Camara and Santo Rugger and received a reading that eliminates that person from being the Necromancer. Now, knowing this when he made his claim, if Diggit is lying, he would have known that you were NOT a lying Necromancer and also Not a wolf (because he would be one), thus he would have known you were telling the truth, making it a dangerous claim. Thus, I find his claim fairly believable, and certainly not the actions of a Necromancer, but possibly the actions of a wolf.

Similarly, your actions are inconsistent with a Necromancer. It would have been very risky as the Necromancer to claim to be a mason with only knowing two were dead. HOWEVER, it is entirely possible that you have a secret power as a wolf or even as a Necromancer to determine the death and perhaps knew that Hal was a mason, and thus made your claim hoping that there were only three.

At this point, it’s clear that at least one of the two of you is lying, but I also think it’s a very low probability that either of you is the Necromancer. I am QUITE certain that the Necromancer lies between Hazel and Zoggie. Thus, I think a vote for either of you is a waste and counter-productive at this point. HOWEVER, with the knowledge that the witches know the reading of one of the two of you… I would like to see more of you two duking it out so we can get a clear reading on the other with that knowledge. :smiley:

1798

NETA: BAH! I should have previewed.

1799

Okay, let’s run some numbers again, now that we have all of the relevant claims:

  • Confirmed Claims -
  • Diomedes - Witch
  • Blaster Master - Witch
  • sachertorte - Coroner
  • Dotchan - Vicar
  • NOT Necromancer -
  • Diggit Camara - Freemason
  • ShadowFacts - Unclaimed
  • Possible Necromancer -
  • Santos Rugger - Freemason
  • Zoggie - Magician
  • HazelNutCoffee - Vigilante

That’s 9 people alive, which means 13 dead now, or 14 at the end of the Day with 6 blessed by the Vicar (including Idle) and 4 Zombies. That’s a 60% chance of a block on the Necromancer (67% if the can’t Zombify Cat).

IOW, if we lynch wrong Today, the Wolves kill a Townie, and the Necromancer succeeds… the game is over at Sunup. Worst case, that’s a 27% chance. However, since I highly doubt that Rugger is the Necromancer, I’d say more like 20% chance.

So, in my mind, there’s really two possible scenarios:

  1. We choose a lynchee between Hazel and Zoggie. If we’re right, only the Wolves know, and they target a confirmed townie. If we’re wrong, and got the Alpha-Wolf, they’ll probably figure they’re sunk and, if they think like Cat, may choose to essentially forfeit the game to the Undead. If we’re wrong and got a Townie, they’ll then know who the Necromancer is for sure, and would still stand a reasonable chance of winning. Further, with this course of action, we’d be depending on the Wolves to make a choice for us, based on information we won’t have until the next Day.

  2. We choose a no lynch. There is zero chance of losing the game at Sunup, we have one more read between Zoggie and Hazel which should give us a pretty much guaranteed bead on the Necromancer, and chances are one between me and Dio will be dead (although, our powers wouldn’t be useful anymore, so I’m not sure if it would be their wisest move). This would put us in a 3-confirmed town, 1 Necro, 5-unconfirmed with 2 scum left… or 2-confirmed, 5-unconfirmed after the Necro is taken out. That means 2 mis-lynches before the Wolves win.
    IOW, option one provides a small chance of an Undead win Tomorrow, but pretty much a very small chance of a Wolf win. Option two provides pretty much a zero chance of an Undead win, but a chance for a wolf win.

At this point, I’m willing to take my chances with a lynch today, hoping we’re right, and if we’re wrong, hoping the wolves won’t just give up by killing a confirmed at that point, and go for whom they pretty much KNOW is the Necromancer. Either way, they’re stuck with making us get two mis-lynches, so I can’t imagine why they’d essentialy forfeit. Thoughts?

At this point, I’m leaning toward a Zoggie lynch.

1800

[QUOTE=HazelNutCoffee]
Great. Two Freemasons, each one saying the other is lying. Is there any way to prove either claim? I am in no state to think - I’ve just had too much wine.
[/QUOTE]

I’ve been re-reading a bit and I would just like to point out that HazelNutCoffee often makes posts like this that have no substance and essentially say “I’m so confused!” Looks scummy to me, but that’s not saying much as there is plenty of scum to go around.