Well, if it makes it any better, we never investigated you. And I never watched you on Serenity, either. 
Yes. Scum lie. If you can give me another option beyond you, Zoggie and the Ruggmeister as a necro, I’ll consider unvoting you.
Simple Solution… no lynch.
I’m strongly inclined to believe that Rugger is the Omega-Wolf, because the only way he’d have the format that down is if he either IS a Wolf or he’s communicated outside the game (I know he wouldn’t have done the latter), but I cannot imagine why he would forfeit his team member. Is it a simple “we lose, so might as well go easy?” or is it a “maybe we can give up one of our own to at least get the Undead to win?”
So here’s how I see it, with a no lynch, unless there’s two kills tonight AND a successful Zombification, we’ll see tomorrow. At that point, we hear from the living which, who will provide a reading on either Hazel or Zoggie that will give us what we need to be 100% sure we’re lynching the Necromancer.
Then, we can lynch in whatever order we need to… either way, it’s clear based on their reactions that Zoggie is also scum.
Unvote Zoggie
Vote No Lynch
Hazel, if you ARE telling the truth, you may target Zoggie because it should be obvious to you that she’s the Necromancer, that Rugger is the Alpha Wolf, and the Omega-Wolf is somewhere between Diggit and Shadow. If you’re not… which I find hard to believe… you’ll be found out by Dawn.
Based on our evidence, we know that the Necromancer is one of:
Santo Rugger
Zoggie
HazelNutCoffee
For either Santo Rugger or Zoggie to be the Necromancer, that would require that the Necromancer and a Wolf are colluding for an undead win. I reject this notion as illogical and just plain unsporting. The only way I can accept collusion is if it is mutually beneficial.
The town was pretty much set on Lynching Zoggie…
With that in mind lets consider the cases:
Santo Rugger: Necromancer
Zoggie: Wolf
In this case, Santo Rugger has little motivation to save Zoggie. Zoggie has good reason to follow Santo Rugger’s gambit, but I don’t see why a Necromancer Santo Rugger would intervene.
Santo Rugger: Wolf
Zoggie: Necromancer
What’s the motivatation for Santo Rugger to save the Zoggie? little to none. The only thing that might make such an action work is the hope that Town lynches Town and the Necromancer fails to create a new zombie. Unlikely, but this high risk ploy does give Wolves an extra day of cover from lynching as Town has to lynch the Necromancer the next day. In order for Wolves to win, they need Town to lynch Town once. Period. Now or later, but now is easier to generate than later.
Put another way:
If Town lynches Undead, Town wins.
If Town lynches Wolf, Undead probably win but Town has a slight chance of winning.
If Town lynches Town, Undead probably win but Wolves have a slight chance of winning.
The only way the third case is even possible is if HazelNutCoffee is Town, but that seems unlikely as well. If Santo Rugger is a Wolf, he would not know which of HazelNutCoffee and Zoggie is the Necromancer.
Town was leaning towards a Zoggie lynch when Santo Rugger posted his overplayed role PM.
Town is leaning towards a Zoggie lynch when Santo Rugger claimed wolf for himself and Zoggie.
Santo Rugger clearly does not want a Zoggie lynch. But why?
Guess: Zoggie is the Wolf who can recruit.
That’s my long way of saying HazelNutCoffee has to be the Necromancer.
You know, I just realized that HockeyMonkey could have been recruited and we wouldn’t know it yet. Although that doesn’t help explain why Santo Rugger is so keen on saving Zoggie…
In general I have to agree with you.
- Are you sure that you’ll get a read even if one of you dies?
- Have you considered that a No Lynch gives the Wolves a chance to recruit?
- If I’m counting correctly, right now we have 5 undead, 11 living. During the Night (unless we’re lucky and the Vicar blocks) there will be 6 undead. Game over, man, game over.
So, basically, point 3 makes No Lynch a suicidal option. Or did I count wrong somewhere?
There are 4 Zombies, 1 Undead versus 8 Living.
A No Lynch leads to
5 Zombies, 1 Undead, 7 Living.
So, here’s my rundown of what could happen with a No Lynch:
- No lynch, Wolves No Kill, Necro Zombifies = 8-6 with Witch investigation
- No lynch, Wolves No Kill, Vicar blesses successfully = 8-5 with Witch investigation
- No lynch, Wolves kill Necro = 6 Town/Cabal vs. 2 wolves, with many knowns
- No lynch, Wolves kill Town, Necro Zombifies = 7-6 with Witch investigation
- No lynch, Wolves kill Town, Vicar blesses successfully = 7-5 with Witch investigation
On preview, sach has brought up the recruit possibility, which I have not addressed above.
But Sach, also keep in mind that Rugger was pushing his masonhood up until it was pressured that we should consider a lynch on him. By essentially confessing, if he’s not a Wolf, he would have tipped off the Wolves that he is the Necromancer.
However, I’m inclined to believe his claim of Wolf (though not necessarily Omega Wolf) simply because the format of the PM does not match anything anyone else posted, but it DOES match mine closely which is what I would expect from a Wolf or Cabal who had access to the secret boards… but wouldn’t expect from an undead who would have no need for the secret board.
While I would think it somewhat unsporting to favor the Undead, as you point out, by us lynching town, the Wolves maintain a slim possibility of winning.
Now, a Wolf Zoggie could realize this and think Rugger is trying to get the actual Necro killed, hope for a special power (like, as you guess, might be a recruit) and they’d still be in the running. Or, a Zombie Zoggie could realize that Rugger is trying his darndest to either keep the town from winning (a la Cat) or maintain some however slim chance of winning by trying to confuse the town.
…I’ll crunch some scenarios later; however, FTR, I think the Wolves ALSO having a recruit is a low probability, especially considering that they started with five members.
um… what the hell are we worrying about, then?
There are 5 undead vs. 10 living right now. Worst case scenario (Lynch + 2 Night Kills + one Zombie) we’d have 6 undead vs. 7 living… So we actually don’t have a lynch Necromancer or lose scenario. And with the Night investigation left the Undead are pretty much toast, aren’t they?
I thought through the No Lynch Option and have concluded that No Lynch is the best Town strategy at this point. If wolves have been given an extra nightkill, then this will win it for the Wolves, but I don’t think wolves would have recruitment AND an extra night kill as that would have been crazy unbalanced.
Earlier today we rightfully rejected No Lynch as an option. However, that was before we had two confirmed scum. Now that we know that Santo Rugger and Zoggie are scum, the numbers favor a No Lynch.
unvote Zoggie
vote No Lynch
I’m kind of pissed about this though because if I’m counting correctly, I’m the recruit target for Tonight. 
becuase CatInASuit is no longer in the game?
I meant to quote this part.
CatInASuit is erroneously listed in the players list.
Oh, and DiggitCamara, you are counting the Necromancer as “living.” He’s not, he counts as Undead.
Right you are. And, btw:
CatInASuit is erroneously listed in the players list.
So, by no-Lynching we give us one more chance to investigate and another Day to live and lynch the remaining Undead.
Unvote Zoggie
Vote NoLynch
As is Hockey Monkey. That list is not up to date.
Actually I wasn’t (hence the 5 undead). But I was using CatinaSuit as one of the living, which skewed my numbers.
I’m just not so sure about that… I mean, I’m in favor of lynching the necro… whom I’m at this point about 99% certain that Hazel has been identified as. But even if we don’t lynch Hazel, why would we no-lynch, instead of lynching one of the Wolves?
As for the Wolves having an extra nightkill and recruitment… I don’t think that would be crazy unbalanced. The town has a buttload of other mechanisms working in its favor.
Wait, wait. Let’s correct that list first
And in this corrected scenarios we have 5 undead (zombies + necromancer) versus 8 living(9 active players - 1 necromancer).
Our corrected worst case scenario, (Lynch + 2 Dead + 1 new zombie) gives us
5 living versus 6 undead
Even with only one Night death (wolves killing) we’d have 7 living versus 6 undead. So that reinforces the notion of a No-Lynch (in my mind at least).
Well, because even if there are only 2 Deaths (lynch + Nightly kill by the wolves) and tomorrow’s Dawn, we’d still end up with a 6 living and 6 zombies scenario during the Night. And that would give the Undead the game.