See my post 1928 
It was such a great point I couldn’t resist to make it again!
(Actually, I managed to confuse myself with Pleonast’s “official count” and just got to the point where you already were) :smack:
Because lynching a Wolf reduces the number of non-Undead, making it easier for the Necro to win. We’re at 8-5 now. We lynch a Wolf and we’re at 7-5. Necro creates a Zombie for 7-6. And if the Wolves are feeling grumpy about us lynching one of them, they can kill one of us and make it 6-6.
In other words, if we don’t lynch the Necro, we shouldn’t lynch anyone because it puts the game in the hands of the Wolves.
Unvote Santo Rugger
**Vote No Lynch
**
I see. I was thrown off by the unupdated list. As is, I still think we should cap Hazel… but I’m impatient. I’ll bow to the collected wisdom of the rest of the town.
Unvote HazelNutCoffee
**Vote No Lynch
**
One teeny tiny complicating factor: While we know the number of Undead and Wolves remaining per Hockey Monkey, our belief that all the Cabalists are dead is an assumption. If there is one additional Cabalist, we need to lynch today.
Hockey Monkey had a mechanism to check the number of Undead and Wolves. Does anyone have a secret power that tells the number of Cabalists? Because if there is one, we MUST Lynch scum today (necromancer specifically) and we must lynch Cabal before finishing off the Wolves.
I’m not seeing the problem. Here is the Cabalist win condition:
“Victory Condition: if, when all Undead and Wolves are dead, at least one Cabalist survives and there are one or fewer Witches alive.”
They still count against the Undead just as Town and Wolves do. What am I missing?
- Confirmed Claims -
- Diomedes - Witch - Confirmed by knowledge that Rysto was a Witch (revealed as such by Sachertorte)
- Blaster Master - Witch - Confirmed by Diomedes
- sachertorte - Corner - Confirmed by accurate role reveals of the dead
- dotchan - Vicar - Confirmed by a successful blessing of Idle Thoughts (revealed as under the Vampire’s curse by Sachertorte)
- Unconfirmed Claims -
- Diggitcamara - Freemason (investigated as Town)
- HazelNutCoffee - Vigilante
- Santos Rugger - Omega Wolf
- Zoggie - Wolf
- No Claims -
- ShadowFacts (investigated as Town)
Remaining Wolves: 2 (as per Hockey Monkey’s investigation, minus the dead wolves)
Remaining Undead: 1 (the Necromancer)
Remaining Cabal: Very likely 0 (two of the five unconfirmed claims have investigated as Town)
Remaining Freemasons: ? (Diggit claims the game started with 4)
I’m inclined to believe Diggitcamara, but until the Omega Wolf dies he isn’t confirmed. This leaves either Santos Rugger, Zoggie, or HazelNutCoffee as the Necromancer.
Even if we No Lynch toDay, we’d still have to find the Necromancer toMorrow or it’s game over, and I doubt the Wolves are going to help on this one.
Here’s hoping to heck we get very, very lucky.
unvote Zoggie, vote No Lynch
Also jumping on the band wagon.
No Lynch
Less is more when it comes to corpses.
Yeah, the Cabal is pretty much sunk. The only players that could be the Cabal are the two claimed Wolves, dotchan, Hazel and sachertorte. I just don’t see how you could fit a Cabalist, two wolves and a Necro in there, with the information sache has provided and the fact that Idle didn’t rise as a Vampire.
I agree that an additional Cabalist is unlikely, but it is possible since either DiggitCamara or ShadowFacts could be the Omega Wolf. I was just asking since there was a game mechanic to reveal the number of Wolves and the Number of Vampires.
If a pro-town player knew that there were 4 Cabalists, then I would expect them to have said something by now.
Proceed with the not lynching.
I’m not caught up yet… so I’m unsure if this has already been answered, but the Witches have very good reason to believe there are zero Cabalists left. Further, even if they DO exist, they CAN’T block Witches, and with the risk of a Wolf or Undead Victory… they’re better off blocking one of the confirmed scum anyway.
NETA: This is not based on information intrinsic to our role, or use of a special power… it is based on lots of meta-game reasoning, with which I would prefer NOT to polute the game. Even with regular reasoning (like 3 cabal vs. 3 witches, and the number of confirmed), it is extremely unlikely.
Well, if it’s not HazelNut… then it’s either one of the claimed Wolves, you or sache. I’m really wondering why we’re going through all this rigamarole instead of just stringing Hazel up now.
If you want to lynch Hazel, then vote for her and lay out your case for why we should do it. I will happily listen. Right now, based on all the analyses today, it looks to me like No Lynch is our best option. But I’m willing to change my mind if you can convince me I’m wrong. Plenty of time until the deadline…
Here’s the deal… based on what Sach said, the recruit is not a particularly large issue, because we know the Witch Doctor is dead, and the game mechanic would indicate that we’d know who that was the moment they came up.
Tomorrow, we will know who the Necromancer is for sure, because he (or I guess I can say she, since the only candidates are female) must lie between Zoggie and Hazel.
At this point, the wolves are kind of stuck in a hard possition… their worst enemy at this point is Sach, because he’s the one who will be telling us whether or not Rugger is the Alpha-Wolf… so they should target him… but if they target him, they leave the two Witches up to get another investigation out and confirm the last unknown so we can tell whether or not we need to consider lynching Diggit and Shadow or not.
If they decide to use a recruit… they’ll HAVE to target someone other than the three of us, Sach and witches (for reasons I’ll let them figure out :D), and it won’t help them at all, because we’ll then have everyone confirmed… all it would do is delay the end of the game by a Day, which point Pleo could just end it mercifully.
IOW, their only hope is to target you, Sach, not try to recruit you, because that’s the only way they’ll be able to leave Shadow and Diggit on the table.
Even if they have an extra Night-kill… they still won’t be able to entirely stop BOTH the witches AND Sach.
Further, I’m inclined to think they don’t have either power, because they began with five members thus recruiting seems a little broken. The other power, an extra Night kill, is even more powerful. I think Rugger’s move is an indication of a move of desperation to confuse the town, not an indication of an attempt to pull of some sort of hidden power.
No Lynch is our best option if we’re not convinced she’s the Necro. If you believe the Wolf claims, which I happen to, then Hazel, sachertorte and dotchan are the only non-Town investigated options. sachertorte is fully cleared in my eyes as the Coroner. There is the slight possibility that you’re the reason why Idle Thoughts didn’t rise as the Vampire, which would open up dotchan as another possible Necro. If that’s not the case, then Hazel’s my Necro by the process of elimination.
**
UnUnUnvote NoLynch
ReDoublePlusVote HazelNutCoffee**
Sorry, Pleo, for making you vote lists this confused.
My only question about all of this is that if Zoggie wasn’t actually a Wolf, why would Pygmy state that she’s one, and why would she own up to it?
Just for clarification:
The reason I’m worried about Cabal and Recruitment is because if both are in the game then we need to Lynch Today because that leaves us with 5 lynches needed for Town to Win. If this is the case, we don’t have the luxury to No Lynch Today. I’m not worried that we won’t be able to identify the recruit or even identify the Cabalist. Identity isn’t the issue, it’s sheer numbers that bother me.
Here’s a worst case scenario (there are lesser ones that are still very bad):
Rugger is a Wolf, but is NOT the Omega-Wolf. This is possible because, the only part that convinces me is the format of the PM… he could easily copy and past stuff to make a convincing looking Omega-Wolf PM. Zoggie is the the Necromancer. Thus, by “pretending” that Zoggie is the other Wolf, we kill Hazel instead, who is actually what she claims. We then go into the Night, where the Wolves can either Take out the Necromancer, knowing the last wolf lies in someone who is “probably town”, they can take out Sach, hoping to disguise the identity of Hazel as NOT being the Necromancer. One option would give the Wolves a slim, but possible chance to win, the other would put the entire game in the crap-shoot that is the Necromancer Zombie-maker.
Even if Hazel is a wolf, obviously Zoggie would play along, because it means that she lives and gets a good chance (about 40% IIRC) of winning the game tonight.
Meanwhile, if we wait 'til tomorrow, we will know the Necromancer for sure, because I’m afraid I can’t trust the Wolves to play for their own extremely slight chance of winning over a pretty reasonable chance of the town losing (as would killing someone other than the Necromancer tonight would net).
If we lynch today, especially based on what is very likely a gambit of circular logic presented us by confirmed scum, we really have no degree of certainty which of the two between Zoggie and Hazel is the casting director for the Thriller video.
IOW, if we lynch Today, we have around a 20-25% chance of the Undead winning in the morning, ~0% chance of a wolf win. If we don’t lynch, we have ~0% chance of a Undead win, and a slim chance [<< 20%] of a Wolf victory.
The ONLY thing that would put a damper in this plan is if BOTH Witches die, but then we’re just stuck with either the Undead winning tonight (as we would be before) or a Lynch-Or-Lose situation tomorrow.
But all we have to do to prevent that is ask those who haven’t used secret powers to intervene. That is, if Hazel is telling the truth… kill Zoggie, because she MUST be the Necromancer. If Shadow has any sort of power to keep the Witches alive (like a Body Guard type move, or block or something) then either protect one of us Witches, or block Rugger or Zoggie (Zoggie works too because if she’s a wolf, it’s the same effect as blocking Rugger, but if she’s the Necromancer, you definitely block the Zombification).
Since at least one between Shadow and Hazel must be pro-town, without knowledge of Shadow’s role, but knowing what roles he may have (ie, Magician, Warlock, or Scotsman), I suspect he probably has a secret power along one of those lines. I can’t imagine he’s the seer just because I think that’d be too powerful (combined with the witches) and he hasn’t claimed and provided any useful information yet.
IOW, we know that either the Necromancer will be dead (because Hazel is telling the truth), at least one Witch will live meaning we know who the Necromancer is and can lynch (if my reasonable assumption about Shadow is truthful… if not, it will at least make the Wolves think twice), or possibly both (if Diggit is the Omega-Wolf).
Further, between NOT knowing what Shadow or his special powers are, and knowing that the Witches still have another trick up our sleeves, it would be VERY risky for them to use an extra kill, if they have it, on the Witches.
Without crunching numbers, since people seem to loathe when I post math, I’ll simply say the Wolves would pretty much have to have an extra power AND play perfectly to even have a chance… but they almost certainly cannot because of the uncertainty of at least Shadow (that is, they know whether or not Hazel is the Necromancer, Wolf, or the Vig).
That hangman’s noose is scratchy. :: tugs at rope around neck ::
What with all this double-claiming, I feel like I should be making a scum claim as well, just to form a trifecta. :rolleyes: I hesitate to post, because I don’t know what more to say at this point. My death doesn’t make much of a difference either way, as has already been pointed out; whether I am Town, Undead, or Wolf, the Town still has a pretty strong chance of winning. So I shall go gently into that good night, if the Town so desires.