I’ll raise a glass of Old Ceciltown Limited Edition “Wolfsbane” Double IPA to that, and in tribute to Bayard as well.
Hmmm…think I’ll pass on the ale. Isn’t wolfsbane extremely poisonous?
To wolves , looks suspiciously at texcat and backs away to the bar. Anyway , kittens eh, I know a good reci…, hmmm maybe not.
I know we cannot post information at Night…but how about scandalous rumor?
:eek: Where did you find that?? Actually, please don’t tell me!
Well, it doesn’t look like an early dawn after all.
DAY THREE
*It was a shocker, a stunner. An outcome totally impossible to predict. A million monkeys with a million quills scribbling mindlessly for a million years couldn’t have even begun to approach an outline of this plot development. For generations to come, the descendants of their descendants would ponder and debate what unlike circumstances could possibly have led to this strange and disorienting twist. It was a death that no one could possibly have seen coming.
Which is, when you think about it, a bit ironic.*
Bayard, the Seer, has been Night killed
Day Three begins here and will end on Monday, August 17, at 12:00PM Eastern Time. Happy hunting!
Awww. I was hoping they’d let me live. For old times’ sake. 
Fellow townspeople, Godspeed!
Now what’s the plan, Biotop?
While I hate to contradict our storyteller, it’s actually Day Four.
Well, he did say we could count on him miscounting.
Prof. Pepperwinkle
I am at the mill. Will try and post later tonight or tomorrow. Though I gotta say there was not much of a positive response other than yours and TexCat, yesterDay.
Though whatever we decide to do, the most important thing now is to decide who our wolf suspects are. Let’s have at it!
Let’s have at it, indeed!
**
Vote Plumpudding**
Before I dive into the analysis, let me make one point clear. From here on out, unless something really weird happens, I am going to assume that TexCat is Town. Yes, there is a small (8.3% baseline) chance that she could be the Alpha Wolf, but I don’t think we can afford to ignore the information our Seer has given us based on fear of an extremely unlikely event. And, as I demonstrated above, I don’t believe that the events of Day One are so otherwise inexplicable as to cause us to disregard the odds. I think it is perfectly possible, and in light of Bayard’s read overwhelmingly probable, that both the septimus and TexCat bandwagons on Day One were largely Town-driven, with the lucky scum only needing to nudge one or both to keep them rolling in the right direction.
So, with the question I asked yesterDay in mind: looking at this vote count from Day One.
I reviewed Plumpudding’s adventures on Day One, with special attention to interactions between him and people whose alignments are now confirmed. His scumminess lit up like a neon sign.
All Day, Plumpudding consistently did what would be most helpful to scum, at the time it was most helpful for them.
**
Dante G took an early vote lead, and Plumpudding was all over that, aggressively attacking Dante** in multiple posts, although he left his actual vote parked discreetly as a one-off on precambrianmollusc.
Then, when** JSexton** was in trouble with the vote count as above and the Dante G bandwagon fizzling,** Plumpudding** picked a Townie and dived in, launching an hysterical campaign of lies and misinterpretations against TexCat which occupied the rest of the Day.
He never had a thing to say about septimus until he started attracting votes, offering another viable alternative to** JSexton**. At that point he suddenly decided septimus was also horribly scummy, and began directing almost as much flying spittle at him as at TexCat herself. Meanwhile, without ever coming out and saying he was opposed to lynching JSexton, he carried on a steady campaign of subtly defending him.
That’s my case in a nutshell. Here is more detailed supporting data:
Here are his posts relevant to those four lynch targets:
Attacking Dante, starting at a time when he had three votes and nobody else had more than one: 254, 256, 257, 293, 318. He then loses interest in Dante, only to circle back and declare himself satisfied “for now” in post 542 – immediately after Dante has placed the fifth vote on** septimus[/B
In 369, he launches his first major offensive against TexCat, including saying that her statement that “people should vote for the scummiest” was “intended to promote baseless voting”. TexCat fired back, and he backpedaled and even apologized a little in post 400. All this happened at a time when scum were not facing heat; Chronos was well in the lead and JSexton had only one vote on him. Perhaps he was picking out a Townie he could drive a wagon on in the future if needed, and wanted to get some suspicions on the record early, so he would look less scummy if he suddenly needed to attack her to draw town away from lynching scum later. Or possibly he had already decided to go all Fox News on TexCat, and planned out this interaction to set up the line he repeatedly used the rest of the Day; that the fact that he apologized the* first* time he told outrageous lies about TexCat proved that he was a reasonable and fair-minded chap, and therefore that his current statements aren’t outrageous lies.
But he didn’t mention her again until post 480, when the vote count was as above and he voted for her. Further attacks on TexCat ensued in 488. Now, suddenly, septimus picks up three quick votes and becomes a second possible alternative to JSexton, and in post 493** Plumpudding** heartily endorses Johnny Bravo’s case against septimus. This is somewhat tricky for him, as** TexCat **has already voted for septimus, but he is equal to the task, surmising that perhaps she is trying to throw him under the bus. Further spittle-laden attacks on TexCat and/or septimus ensue in posts 500, 529, 532, 534 (now pushing the theory that perhaps these two scum are the vote leaders because they are bussing each other!), 553, 569, 571, 572, 573, 580, 584, 585, 586, 590, 597, 611, and 615.
Now let’s look at all of Plumpudding’s mentions of** JSexton **on Day One.
In post 272,**** JSexton**** criticizes Plumpudding for posting “a vague bit of nonsense as justification for a vote” and, unlike most everyone else to criticize Plumpudding, is NOT met with an hysterically defensive response, but simply ignored! In 364, he comments that JSexton’s case against Chronos “never won me over”. In 409, he asks JSexton not to follow through on his threat to sub out if the tie-engineering plan catches on. In 497, he defends him against criticism by Prof P. in 516, he agrees with JSexton’s response to Pepperwinkle, and then goes on to attack Pepperwinkle himself in 517. In 522, he asks Mahaloth why he is still voting for JSexton. In 571, addressing septimus regarding JSexton, he says “you and he are not in the same boat”. Well, true dat. In 600, he says that JSexton must have had a good reason for not voting. In 607, he asks Mahaloth what he thinks of JSexton. And in 632, he “implores” Bayard to move his vote off JSexton. None of these statements, taken one at a time, looks like much, but in aggregate, they paint a clear picture of a player determined to discourage the** JSexton** lynch without ever clearly saying so.
As far as other players, he also said negative things about Bayard (129), Precambrian (137, 254, 481, 533), Sario (305, 306, 481), Pepperwinkle (516, 517, 554), and Chitwood (625). In 131, he agrees with**** Biotop**** about a tiebreaking question. In 364, he said that Chronos and Biotop “look clean”. In 493, he repeats that and adds me (Thing Fish) and Mahaloth to the list. In 518, he says** Chitwood** is “on my good list”. In 544, he praises the contributions of sangfroid. In 571, he is “leaning town on Nonsuch”. He makes two lists of people he accuses of lurking: 516 lists Pepperwinkle, precambrian, and** Johnny Bravo**, and specifically excludes Nonsuch. 523 keeps those three on the list and adds Dante, sangfroid, and Cygnus42. He never expresses an opinion directly on** Johnny Bravo,** but praises his case against septimus in 493 and 532.
So there it is. I’ll start noosin’ up the rope, and dibs on the pelt.
He responded at # 278:
[QUOTE=JSexton]
You’re right, you did say that. Sorry, I missed that bit.
[/QUOTE]
Obviously still not the roaring filibuster others were met with, but there it is.
Pretty persuasive analysis overall, though.
Thanks, Jimmy. I’m sure there are probably some other things like that that I missed, but I hope people won’t miss the forest for the trees.
That’s a pretty powerful case. As I’ve said before, Plumpudding has tended to lean town for me (and I guess he’s sort of returned the favor, FWIW), mostly because I put his excesses down to a rabid play style rather than a wolf deliberately trying to sow dissension. But now, with more information to draw conclusions from, you’ve made some sold points. Hmm. Need to let this sink in. Thanks, Thing Fish.
Looks good to me.
vote Plumpudding
Okay, I’ll go ahead and claim:
[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
Welcome to the Game; you are a Villager
Alignment: TOWN
Powers: None
You are a standard, everyday citizen of Cecilton, long on work ethic, short on molars. As a peasant in a remote pseudo-medieval town, you’ve seen your share of supernatural weirdness, but somehow you’ve managed to get better every single time you’ve been turned into a newt. Like everyone, you have your odd set of skills, but nothing of value in a werewolf plague apart from a quick wit and a valid vote; keep both of them employed, and you may yet survive. Good luck!
[/QUOTE]
Believe it or not, I’m town. If you feel you can afford to lynch me, go ahead. I will try to explain or rebut the individual points in your case later, Thing Fish, as I’m soon off to bed. I’m a bit worried you won’t believe me, but I do hope so, as it would be for the best for town. There are better targets out there. I feel I’ve explained my position on both **Septimus **and TexCat, but if you have any questions apart from me being aggressive, fire away. As for JSexton, apart for his insistence of not even discussing the tie-breaking, he fooled me pretty well. I didn’t find Mahaloth’s original case based on “a combination of his push to lynch Chronos and a vibe” was very convincing, and after the self-votes I kinda had some sympathy towards him.
At the risk of lynching plumpudding for methane reasons , plumpudding has just quoted storytellers post where he gave the vanilla role , because it says “originally posted by story”
If he had cut and pasted from his role pm , would it say that?
So thing fish reasoning seams sound, prolly be voting plum , but diggit c is high up there on list