Couldn’t agree more with you on this point. On the other hand, I do believe that’s pretty much an obvious point: Until the Wolves had anything more to go on, the obvious choice was to attack the more savvy players (especially during a game for Beginners).
I still wonder, however, why they didn’t attack the Seer before. After all, he had kinda/sorta intimated he’d liked to share his suspicions a bit before he was NightKilled. But that kind of speculation is better left to the Post-Game discussion.
Thing Fish: That’s… convincing. You’ve successfully shown a pretty clear pattern of Plumpudding attempting to sway votes away from JSexton, and doing it in a way that didn’t become clear until after his alignment had been revealed.
I’m a bit worried about this:
Because it’s the second time that TexCat has jumped to agree with a case (the first one being mine) without much more than a “I agree!”
Finally, a note about scum targeting experienced players. I agree, sort of, but I think it’s just a little more nuanced than that. Simply targeting experienced players would be a bad play. Scum target players who are active, effective, and dangerous. It just so happens that those players are also the experienced ones because this is a newbie-friendly game, but I think it’s important to be as clear as possible when we’re parsing their motivations. If I say, “Oh, **Chronos **was killed because he was experienced,” then I might gloss over more specific and potentially important reasons that he was killed, especially as we get later in the game and there’s more evidence to compare his posts to.
Anyway:
VOTE PLUMPUDDING.
I’m convinced mainly by the second-to-last major paragraph of Thing Fish’s case. It’s solid work.
While there is a way, I believe, to use the current tie-breaking method to gain extra pro-town information, I do not (and really did not) think it likely to be able to be used. The theory would not work in practice. Here’s why:
Players do not seem to want to be herded.
I do not know how the First Mason will feel about what he would have to do, and that role is critical in the execution of the plan. Outing the First Mason and then having the plan fall apart would be no help at all.
For the plan to work certain things would also have to happen organically, and the entire group as a whole would have to be in agreement afterwards on allowing a rigged response to those organic events— or at least enough players that those expressing opposition might be in danger of being highly suspected as wolves.
I pretty much interpret the silence that followed my asking for opinions of another vote rigging scheme to be a definitive: NOT INTERESTED.
No problem. Should the stars align for Plan B to work, I’ll spell it out. Otherwise, it is dead.
But here’s the real reason I started posting about a Plan B:
In post #897, Johnny Bravo indicated that vanilla town have a job of getting night killed “before any town power roles.” So after Bayard came out as Seer, I got it into my head that perhaps I could provoke the wolves to lynch me instead and give Bayard another night to investigate. Unlikely, right? But I thought it worth a try, so I blustered and tried to make it look like I might have an idea that was a real immediate danger to wolves. “Plan B” was more like “Plan Bluff.” This did not work and I was probably naive to think it could. They didn’t night kill me. Sorry, Bayard. I tried.
But the exercise was not a complete information failure. When I asked for help computing odds, Prof. Pepperwinkle supplied me with assistance. He also asked about the plan just as soon as today began. I think this indicates Prof. Pepperwinkle is town. I think wolves want no part of the tie discussion, and much less are they likely to help.
TexCat also said in post #1061 that she did not think the plan I was hinting at was a violation of the spirit of the game. This makes me think she is less likely to be the Alpha.
I was hoping more players would respond, because I think the sensible thing for wolves to do with another vague tie proposal would have been not to respond at all. I was hoping to learn more from that silence. But I understand a town player’s reluctance to take a position on such an unclear idea as well.
But getting hints on town is almost as important as getting hints on wolves, so at least I got something from the failed proposal.
Over the past few days I have spent time trying to find posts that seem pro-town. Because I am thinking that wolves might become visible when we start eliminating the towniest among us from consideration as opposed to just looking for the “scummiest” commentary.
If I ever play this game again, I am going to have to find a way to keep better notes. I have pages and pages of scribbles, some even incomprehensible to me!
But I am still going to try and organize a few of my thoughts and post them— probably over several posts today and tomorrow.
So to begin:
Cygnus42:
Some ProTown Posts/indications:
#291-- Says he doesn’t think Dante G’s mis-speak on “tipping sides” was a scum slip. Why would a wolf help a townie in such a situation? Better to say nothing. Even though **Cygnus 42 **is eventually won over to a suspicion of Dante G, this first post strikes me as honest.
#455 – JSexton insinuates Cygnus42 is scum. We all know what JSexton was.
#459 – Votes for JSexton and says he thinks he “has a general sense of scumminess”. Cygnus42 is right.
#646: Unvotes septimus after he is revealed to be the Guardian. He does so at the last minute when others theoretically could be doing the same. Why risk what is a great outcome for scum?
#704: Still voicing suspicions of **JSexton.
** #852: Still posting anti-JSexton opinion.
Post #406-407: Agrees to septimus plan self vote but does not think it is a good idea. Quotes JSexton in 406 and likens the various plans to chess in 407. Hmmm… Chess indeed.
Post #490: Votes for **septimus **as “the scummiest of the candidates so far.” I can’t fault him too much for this as I failed the town by voting for septimus as well.
Post #801, 830: Very reasoned responses to my proposal to post five wolf suspects. Seems like they are pro-town responses.
Really not a lot to go on. Most of the other DiggitCamera posts are hard for me to get any read on. His post #1010 and subsequent posts pointing out the suspiciousness of Precambrianmollusc’s doubts about the Bayard Seer claim make sense.
DiggitCamera: If you are town this is why I have been encouraging more postings. I am not at all sure of your alliance.
(Sorry to mispell DiggitCamara’s name in the previous post. No disrespect intended)
Jimmy Chitwood:
If **Jimmy Chitwood **turns out to be wolf I may have to give up this game forever. Just about every post reads to me as helpful and pro-town. It has gotten so I pretty much automatically trust his posts, even though I know logically I should be more careful.
Post’s 203-204: JSexton would be much more likely, in my opinion, to be chummy this early in the game with town. I think if I was a wolf, I would try and piss off as few people as possible and at the same time try and be friendly and likable with townies while mostly ignoring other wolves.
Post #243: Sticks up for Chronos against early suspicions. Why would a wolf do that?
Post #371: Chooses **Dante G **over **Chronos **in very persuasive terms. He also says he would go along with Chronos’ improvement of my tie-breaking plan. Why would a wolf do this? He wouldn’t.
Post #515: After Prof. Pepperwinkle unvotes eventual proven wolf Jsexton, Jimmy Chitwood immediately asks him why the change. Why would a wolf do that? He wouldn’t.
Post #747: A reasoned response to PlumPudding. Why post this if wolf?
*Post #875:Jimmy Chitwood votes for TexCat over Dante G. because result would be more informative for town. He is right. Why would a wolf post that? He wouldn’t.
I could go on and on. Pretty much every post from Jimmy Chitwood is reasoned, thoughtful and helpful in clarifying my own murky thoughts.
Verdict: Town
Gotta take a break for a while. I will pick up my alphabetical order list again later.
Ha. Well, that’s encouraging, but maybe too much credit, considering that if you measure in terms of actual help, instead of attempted help, I think I’m batting .000.
Other scattered thoughts - starting over a reread from scratch, I do like the case against Plum a bit more than I did, although as with basically every element of this game so far it’s laced pretty liberally with the fact that I just don’t really get what’s been going on in general (that “I notice that I am confused” deal the rationalists talk about), and assuming that he’s scum doesn’t fix it. JSexton’s backhanded defense of him at 848 (tingling my scumdar… not interested in lynching him today, but like to revisit) and the followup dialog at 849/ 850 does ring true as an intentional distancing without any real heat to it.
But it’s also an interesting interaction because JSexton agreed with Bayard that Plum was worthy of attention later, but turned it into a smudge on Bayard, anyway. Mildly suggestive that Plum would ultimately flip Town, and Bayard would then be cast into suspicion, maybe – if JSexton was alive and Plum not, which would probably seem the more likely outcome at that point, JSexton would want to have criticized the case against Plum if Plum is Town, but not if he isn’t. The JSexton who knows Bayard is Town and Plum is not has no reason to go after Bayard in that underhanded way prior to anybody’s reveal.
Also, we have some very distinct louds and some very distinct lurkers at this point. sangfroid, Sario and Nonsuch - you got any pet candidates to put forward?
Biotop, I agree wholeheartedly with the Cygnus read. Cygnus is pretty much confirmed town to me after the Sexton flip. Prof P also voted for JSexton on Day 1, but didn’t really seem to have his heart in it, and therefore I haven’t given him the town cred that I gave Cygnus. I don’t see anything to disagree with Diggit and Chitwood reads, but I did not pay much attention to them on my reread.
I have the distinct feeling that the wolves are lying low and awaiting developments.
Well Jimmy, not necessarily. Or not necessarily today anyway, as it likely won’t happen.
After coming after me quite forcefully not so long ago, Tex hasn’t said “boo” about me since, for good or ill. I am deeply concerned about the whole Alpha scenario, and I am trying not to let it paralyze my thought processes. So easy to overthink things in these games.
Occam’s Razor and all that.
IRL, I’m used to going with my gut feelings in many matters (financial matters notably excepted), as they are very often (but certainly not always) right.
Tex has been (again *allegedly *because we cannot know for certain) declared Town.
This should be sufficient, but something is still nagging at me, and not just that I was a target of this person earlier.
I certainly don’t want to offer myself up for no reason, but since I don’t seem to be able to help a whole lot with detailed analyses (sorry, just not my forte), when push comes to shove, I’m not above taking one for the team.
It seems like our resident feral doggies are taking full advantage of the “noobs/beginners” aspect of this game by wiping out the Town cognoscenti, leaving their side mostly intact.
Perhaps our remaining experienced players might suggest the best method to narrow down the Alpha, as that would seem to be priority #1 at this point.
Any dead wolf is a good wolf, but the pelt of the wolf in sheep’s clothing is the one I want tacked on the wall most of all.
I have some free time later this evening and I am going to go back and reread as much as I can handle, starting right at the beginning.
Maybe something will stand out.
When I look back on my notes, I hardly have anything on Johnny Bravo. In post #897 he tells us that town players have a job of getting stuff on the record, but he himself has not posted that much. Whether on vacation, on the road, getting sleep, or in meetings Johnny Bravo has has an excuse for not posting. So I will work with what I have got:
#460: First vote for septimus. He notes that “The first Mafia lesson I was taught in Mafia is that you should stand by your actions…” However, that probably goes for Wolf as well as Town, so it is not so much a scum tell on septimus’ part. But I think this post at least sounds honest. Post #531 fleshes it out a bit. I can’t get a good read on this though.
Post #771:Johnny Bravo and Thingfish are having a squabble over whether Thingfish’s “certainty” in “protecting” septimus was perhaps too much knowledge.
Post #793:JSexton defends Thingfish over Johnny Bravo’s and Precambrianmollusc’s comments over the certainty of Thingfish’s read of septimus. Why is JSexton getting involved here? Hmmm…
Post #853:Johnny Bravo is satisfied over his “spar” with Thingfish.
Post #876: Asks for a summary of the case against TexCat. I don’t know what to make of this. He is agreeing with** Jimmy Chitwood** about a **Dante G **lynch not being helpful, but has also not read what at that point had been an ongoing and often loud case against TexCat.
Post #1089: Asks for more information from the soon-to-be-departing Bayard. That seems like a town move to me.
Like DiggitCamara, Johnny Bravo appears on Bayard’s list of those without much contact with JSexton.
So if I have to render a verdict:
**
Verdict: Undecided (but leaning Town)**
With our Seer dead, the Alpha wolf is not any more powerful than the other wolves. I’d like to find him because he would prove my towniness, but that’s the only advantage to his death over any other wolf.
Like some others, I wish there were more posts from** Nonsuch** to consider.
Post #219: He says he thinks Dante G is probably town. He is right. Pro-town points.
Post #292: He defends Chronos, though with a caveat. Town points again.
Posts a helpful list of his feelings towards all those playing. Has JSexton under suspicion. Town points again… (though if I were a wolf and publishing such a list, I would certainly have a wolf on the “suspicious” list just to cover my ass from perfect knowledge).
Post #740: Substantive. Hard to argue with. Seems pro-town.
Post #751: Keeps JSexton suspicion alive. Town points.
Post #790: Praises Thingfish for “cogent” first day crash and burn analysis. Just like someone else did. JSexton, in post #753. Hmmm… Somehow this bugs me more than it should.
Post #900: More seemingly good reasoning.
Post 1117: thoughtful again.
Okay, most of my readings of** Nonsuch** are town. The only reason I hesitate to vote completely that way is the lack of overall posting and just some nagging I don’t know what… So:
**
Verdict: Undecided (leaning heavily Town)**
Here’s the tough one. We certainly are not lacking posts to analyze. And both Bayard (known town) and Thing Fish (unknown alliance) have made very strong cases.
I can’t begin to go back and present as powerful a case as the above two posters did for or against PlumPudding. My analysis has probably been biased all along because I stated early on I thought PlumPudding was town. His very early posts at #120 and #131 were in favor of using the tie-breaker to help town, which put him early in my “likely town” file. He also defended Chronos in post #286 against charges by JSexton. My only real negative ping was post #522, when he was trying to get Mahaloth’s vote off of **JSexton.
**
In Post #364 he defends Chronos again, but argues against the tie-breaking (like JSexton did) as “not what I signed up for.” If wolf though, why defend Chronos?
At this point I confess I had PlumPudding labelled as a loud townster and my additional notes on him are not very strong. That said, the case made against him is a good one. I wait to see the defense.
But what I really don’t understand is why a wolf player would make such an aggressive showy display against town. You hurt feelings and make enemies. When events develop later on, other townies will look back at this overly-aggressive display and highly suspect this player as “Wolf.” And surprise, surprise, that is EXACTLY WHAT HAS HAPPENED. So why did he play this way if wolf? I just do not understand. If you are town you might not realize how your play might be perceived, but wolves have extra incentive to not stand out like this from the crowd. It’s nuts.
So tell me, PlumPudding, why should I not believe your accusers? Because they are winning me over.
(Note, I just realized I am out of alphabetical order on this post, but I am going with it anyway. My wife is on the way home and when she finds out I have spent the whole day on Mafia and not the yard, I may be lynched!)
Last one for a while:
Prof. Pepperwinkle
Post #84: He asks how many wolves are in the game, something he would already know if wolf. I admit he may have conjured this question as wolf to start a conversation, but I don’t really believe that.
Post #361: Puts in a good word for the tie-breaking scheme that helps town.
Post #479: votes for JSexton, putting him in real danger. Town points.
Post #509: Ragged on by JSexton. More town points.
Post #1052: Posts helpful odds I requested.
Post #1059: Argues that new players in a new game might well have new interpretations of the “spirit of the game.” Pro-town.
If** TexCat** is town, then his last minute switch to septimus on Day 1 is seemingly innocent.
You think so? Bayard’s case basically boiled down to me being an asshat and Thing Fish thinks I rolled “heat” off JSexton. I may be an asshat, but that’s not a very good reason to lynch me. And Thing Fish’s case is drenched in hindsight. I believe Thing Fish should think as much about context as he thinks about substance, because context seems to have been left completely out of his analysis of me.
As TexCat(?) quoted me on earlier toDay, I stated I didn’t understand the case against him. I asked for a clarification. When I didn’t get one, I asked if Mahaloth would be willing to reconsider his case. Which he didn’t, so I focussed on other things as Mahaloth seemed pretty townie to me at the time.
Me and JSexton was not alone with that. And using the tie-breaking would have been a rinse and repeat scenario. Not what me, or anyone else for that matter, signed up for.
Why do you feel it is good? I think this is what have bugged me this whole game: Why do people feel like they feel, why do people vote like they vote? Alot of you have very loudly stated that you are against of for something, but been very silent when asked why(this isn’t directed at you Biotop, you’ve been pretty forthcoming all game).
Lynch the loud. It’s a lousy tactic. When a majority stay silent, wolves have a pretty easy time staying off the radar. They can either being “helpful” and suggestive, or just stay silent.
I have given you a lot of reasons for me being town. You have even given yourself some. Do you think I’ve been forthcoming? Do you think I’ve said what I think or believe or opine? Have I voted consistently? Have I had reasons for those votes and shared them? If yes, then that should be pretty solid. I may have been wrong, my reasoning may have been bad, but I haven’t lied or avoided to answer for that. If I die I hope it will give you some information and maybe a push onto a better track. If it even matters… We’re probably pretty screwed.
Yeah, I know. I’m pretty busy and haven’t had the time or the energy to go back, read, think and reply. Add to that, that Krakow has pretty consisently for over a week had tempratures in the 35 degree C range. To be honest I’m not sure a defense from me would help my case all that much.
And remember when you were accusing TexCat and she had to respond to a large attack. Probably seemed hopeless for her, too. She she responded and she is stll here. I also think she almost gave up— and if she had she would have been lynched. If you are town make the very best case you can. Then see what happens.
I’m not underestimating you guys, I’m underestimating my ability to provide with a proper defense, especially considering my real life obligations at the moment. **TexCat ** had one day’s pretty meagre activity to provide answers for. I have quite a lot more. I’m also repeating myself over and over again and it’s getting tiring.
*Post #135: Says he is suspicious of people who say wolves would not want benefit from a tie. As the rules were first described, the tie-breaker was quite pro-town. But being wrong is not necessarily a wolf trait, and intentionally making a bad argument isn’t a smart wolf play. Better to say the tie-breaker is “not in the spirit of the game.” So undecided on this post. I feel like it is more likely a town opinion. But just barely.
*Post #148: Almost seems to dismiss reason as a weapon against wolves. Hmmm…
*Post #358: Ok, we know why JSexton said he did not vote the first round. Server problems at work requiring his attention. Lots of people had excuses the first day why they are not posting and drawing attention. Moving and boxes this time for this player. Whether true or not, these excuses were sure convenient.
*Post #411: Helpful post explaining his feelings across the board. I like such posts because they can be revealing— so I don’t think wolves probably make them so much. Town points.
*Post #467: Okay, I don’t want to get all wound up over reasons for not staying around for a lengthy discussion…but “beer o’clock”?..REALLY? “Beer o’clock?” And more talk of how the pro-town plans were helpful to scum? Hmmm…
*Post #658: Votes too late. Beer o’clock absence of nearly three days. Yet he arrives just in time to participate 20 minutes too late. What are we to think?
*Post #750: Wants to know why Mahaloth is voting for JSexton… something **Mahaloth **has already explained before. Hmm… Mahaloth patiently explains his reasons again in post #754.
*Posts #785-786: Agrees with Johnny Bravo’s suspicions on Thing Fish in the whole “protecting septimus” brouhaha. JSexton will later quote Precambrianmollusc’s post #785 and disagree with him. Why is JSexton here at all? Someone in all this “protecting septimus” chatter besides JSexton almost has to be a wolf, IMHO. But whom?
*Post #887: Seems still suspicious of JSexton. A town point.
*Post #1001: This sure got my attention (as well as DiggitCamara). The reasoning behind putting off a lynch on JSexton is not clear to me. I don’t understand this whole post. Posts #1011 and #1012 don’t clear it up much for me. That said, would a wolf really post this way? I don’t understand what is going on with these posts at all. **Minus points everywhere!!!
**
*#1033: Says he will be voting for DiggitCamara on the nextDay because of how DiggitCamara reacted to post #1001. I think DiggitCamara had a right to feel as he did, so this seems retaliatory and not helpful to town.
*Post#1091: Responded to my “Plan Bluff” bait, which in my mind is a pro-town post for Precambrianmollusc.
Post #1120: Okay, this post is very town-indicative. He says that the PM post by PlumPudding would not say “originally posted by storyteller” at the top. TexCat corrects him a few minutes later. IF Precambrianmollusc is wolf and Plumpudding is town, then this posting makes no sense. Why would a wolf make up a meta reason that would easily be disproved? But a townie might post this without thinking it through or trying it out because it seemed an “A-HA” moment. So is he town after all?
**
Precambrainmollusc* was on my short “very likely wolf” list before post #1120. He was missing in action at critical times on Day 1 and also was on Bayard’s list of those not really talking directly with** JSexton**. So now…
Ok, I’m back. I had actually been writing up a post at the end of Day 3 but I failed to wrap it up before the Day came to an early close. It was basically about the Return of the Son of the Rigged Tiebreaker. I already opined in this post that, with blind, random chance now introduced to the tiebreaker model, it was at best futile, and at worst dangerous, to go around deliberately engineering ties. When TexCat posted this:
My reply was going to be:
Yes, you are missing an important detail: the tiebreaking vote no longer cascades down the chain. If the First Mason abstains, the tie is resolved randomly. See, again, this post from storyteller.
I was not altogether surprised when Biotop confessed his idea was a ploy to draw out scummish behavior; I was surprised when he turned around and said he did, in fact, have a plan, albeit one that would take a great deal of coordination (even more than the original plan would). I do think vote-rigging violates the spirit of the game and I’m chagrined, and rather amazed, we’re even still entertaining this. That said, I’m tired of having this argument. If you all agree that this is how you want to play, and if it means we can finally put this to rest, I will go along. I can’t see how any reliable information can be extracted from storyteller’s model, but I’ll allow there are people in this game with a better grasp of such things, and am open to persuasion.
Put me also in the “Isn’t that sorta obvious?” camp. Chronos in particular had scads of experience and was putting up some very strong pro-town strategizing, and in fact was the first Town call I felt confident in making. I didn’t realize Mahaloth had as much experience, but again, his playing was strongly pro-town. I guess the alternative to the above is that the scum are somehow sussing out people’s power roles, in which case they’re probably psychic, and we’re all doomed.
OK, on to new business.
Yes.
Back in the far-off mists of Day 1, I thought JSexton was very hasty in voting Chronos for, among other things, “proposing manipulating votes and gaming the mod for dubious benefits,” as well as supposed personal attacks on him. I agreed with JSexton in opposing what Chronos wanted to do, but only because I thought it would take the fun out of the game — it was obviously an aggressively pro-Town strategy, and I thought Sexton was premature in voting him for it. Well, turns out I should have listened a little harder to that twinge of doubt.
Flash-forward to this post from Precambrianmollusc:
[Note that I am removing colors from vote posts]
As I noted at the time, this post felt scummy for the same reason JSexton’s did: it tries to blunt a very cogent, pro-Town argument with some rather sloppily thrown accusations, in a way that seems designed to prevent said argument from gaining traction. Not a smoking gun, but it’s bothered me ever since. (And this isn’t even counting his questioning of Bayard’s claim.)
(Corollary to the above: yes, I’m pretty much settled that Thing Fish is Town, and am drawing conclusions on that basis. Thing Fish, if I’m wrong, I only ask that you make my death swift.)
And, just to get all my cards on the table, here’s something else I can’t get out of my head from Day 1:
In the end, of course, he changed his vote first to TexCat, and then to septimus. On being questioned about this by Jimmy Chitwood:
So in the first instance, we have a first vote that rubber-stamps another player’s, which he then changes — twice — to follow along with the group.
And then, early in Day 2:
Pepperwinkle did not originally vote for Dante G. So what was this vote for — a tribute to septimus? Why trust septimus’ vote, particularly? I mean, maybe there is a reason; I just don’t know what it is.
Does this indicate a pattern of scummy behavior? Maybe, maybe not. To me, it indicates a pattern of either blatantly piggybacking on other players or else trying to fly whichever way the wind is blowing — and I am less and less inclined to trust it.
I haven’t forgotten Thing Fish’s case against Plumpudding. As I’ve said, my take on Plum up to now has been “weirdly aggressive and borderline-incoherent Town.” I trust Thing Fish’s perspective and he’s made me reconsider my position, which I’m still doing. Barring any new evidence, my Day 4 votes is going to either Plumpudding, Precambrianmollusc or Prof. Pepperwinkle. Besides, we plainly have too many players in this game whose names begin with “P.”