MAFIA: The Game - Ideal for Beginners [Game in Progress]

Alright. I’ve gone back, quoted my and others relevant posts more or less chronologically, with some jumps forward in time to show context.

My first game interaction with Jsexton.

Here I present what I tried and failed to do most of Day One.

Here are my reasons for my “one off” vote on Precambrianmollusc. I also comment on Dante G’s posts. Was I really alone in thinking Dante G as suspicious? Seemed to me he was blundering most game, not adding a lot to any of the topics and mostly exusing himself and his way of playing.

My first real interaction with** Septimus**. I told you guys pretty early that I was all for cracking an egg Day One. I still don’t see how that is pro-scum. We have cracked a few eggs too many, and some eggs way more important than others. Now we can’t afford to crack eggs anymore, if we’re to have any chance of winning this game.

Remember this post?

I’ll post the rest of this interaction, just to show I’ve actually argued against him and he against me.

And here he abandons the argument and moves elsewhere.

Okay, trying to refute JSexton and explaining why I’m not against cracking an egg Day One:

I then have a small interaction with** Nonsuch** that proved ultimately fruitless.

Trying to get a vote off Chronos, one of the few I was pretty sure was town.

This is incidentally what I had against Septimus case; His insistence of bringing meta about** Chronos** into this game.

After this I voice some suspicions regarding TexCat, promted by Chronos’ vote and we get into the self-vote business. I found TexCat’s explanations lacking and her reactions pretty over-the-top mid-day Day One.

Also,** Malaloth** vioces what I think many of us thought at that point:

I had to split this post, as it was too long.

From toDay:

Back to Day One:

I finally get back to the game and place my third vote for the day on TexCat.

Here I voice my reasons for being supicious of** Septimus**, which never got answered.

Snipped the middle of the quote.

Here I present my thoughts so far. I also asks for more explanations regarding JSexton, as I didn’t feel the case as very compelling.

In post 500I address Septimus directly.

And in post 501 I elaborate:

Here I defend Nonsuch against JSexton:

Since Mahaloth or anyone else never provided me with an elaboration of why they voted JSexton I posted this:

And I post this:

Here is my misguided reading of Septimus and TexCat:

And me restating why I had a bug with them:

This needs to be restated because it’s true:

Bolded for emphasis.

And then we get to the end of Day One, my “misrepresentations”, “lies” and “sexual innuendo” directed at TexCat and a horrible Day One lynch. My case and explanation for my Day One play: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18559726&postcount=733, 735, 792.

I didn’t see any reason to answer Bayard, as I felt I’d already explained myself with those posts.

I never backpedaled. I apologized and explained why she was misrepresenting me. Then I waited for an answer which I never got.

Outrageous lies? Where are my outrageous lies? Maybe I went a bit overboard, but she never addressed any of my points, or showed me why they were wrong. As shown above in this post, I went back to read the thread over, meanwhile Chronos asked me to act on my suspicions and I did.

JSexton was never under any heat. It was mid-day Day One. He had nothing to fear at that point.

Did I ignore it?

I found their cases uncompelling, I had asked for more info on several occations, as shown in this post. I never got an answer.

Why do you insist on using words like “praise”. I never praised anyone’s cases or posts. I either found them compelling, uncompelling or inbetween. You seem very inclined to use hyperbolic language to underline whatever point you think you have and I don’t think it helps your case. You’ve also called someone a “snit” and tried to peg me as a misygonist, which is ridiculous.

(OOG: I’m leaning far left in the political spectrum of Norway. If there is one core value of mine, it’s equality.)

I may be a loud asshat, I may be aggressive and I may have a difficult time making myself understood but those aren’t good reasons to lynch. If you lynch me, you’ll be two townies down tomorrow.

From Nonsuch:

Yes, it’s my first game and I have been piggybacking, following the mob, etc. The vote for DanteG was a tribute vote for septimus since I was part of his downfall. I’m sorry I didn’t stick with JSexton, but hindsight is greater than foresight.

PlumPudding, I am not going to vote for you toDay. I think you are town. I hope you continue to play and push for the candidates you think are scum. We can still win this thing.

But, and I say this in the spirit of good will, please remember that if we lynch you and another townie, then WE will be down two townies. The “you’ll” in your post bothers me because my theory in this game has always been that if I die, it is a shame but if the town ultimately wins it doesn’t matter whether I cross the finish line dead or alive.

Our town dead so far each have posted a final “goodbye” in that spirit. I fight for them because they can no longer play. But they can still win!

I did feel a bit bad for TexCat on day 1, and I accept that I allowed that feeling to influence my vote. I am trying to operate now purely on reason, but alas one of the pitfalls of this game is after a while you start feeling that you are getting to know certain players, and you don’t want them to go down. I don’t want you to get lynched.

The “you’ll” was meant as you as a group of voters. You go down two townies, we get closer to loosing. I am happy you won’t vote for me toDay, and I will try to find a good place to put my vote. Right now I feel participation is severly lacking and that is making our job quite a bit more difficult. Regarding Thing Fish, his case is pretty good, but he’s overlooking the context in which things were happening. TexCat had it right yesterDay:

He wasn’t under any real heat. It was in the middle of Day one and absolutely anything could happen. In hindsight I may have been too aggressive towards **TexCat **and Septimus, and I may not have pushed JSexton hard enough, but I lacked the knowledge then that we now have. And again, if I get lynched I hope that will give you guys something more to work with, although it may be too late.

TexCat, you have several times said you believe I’m a misguided asshole townie. If you still feel there’s a chance of that, do you think your vote on me is a good use of your vote? I think we agree on atleast one thing; we need to find scum. Are you certain enough of me being scum to risk loosing a town?

To all players inactive: We need your input. Please voice your opinions.

And finally, Biotop, I appreciate your player analyses.

Sangfroid

Weird. I look for my notes on Sangfroid on Day1, and I have nothing. It’s not that he did not post (though he did not post a lot), it’s just that I could not get any kind of a read from any of it. I guess that’s a wash but “no information” bothers me.

Post #732: Sangfroid posits that we have some “crafty adversaries” with expertise at finding power roles. I respond that I do not understand this in #738, and Sangfroid disagrees with my response in #739. Now my first thought on this was it reeked of “self congratulation,” but after considering more I do not think a wolf would make such an obvious slip. And in post #752, wolf JSexton insinuates Sangfroid has “inside knowledge.” Why would he do that to a fellow wolf? So I am going to give Sangfroid a pass on all this.

Post #856: I don’t understand the “sacrificial lamb” comment but it makes no sense to me as either as a wolf post or as a town post, so again it is a wash.

Post #899: I like this post in that has substance. States he is town and hopes he can leave information if he is killed off. I don’t particularly agree with the actual accusations in the post, but I think it is a Town post.

Post #1137 Sangfroid volunteers himself as a martyr. Can’t see a wolf doing that.

Okay, I sure wish I had more to go on to make any kind of accurate verdict, but if we take this in that spirit:
**
Verdict: Undecided (but leaning Town)**

I just wanted to throw some comments on your analyses, Biotop, before I leave my computer for the evening.

I think my biggest gripe with the Prof. is how he never really substantiates or argues for his votes. He agrees or comes with a one-liner and that’s it. But I do not see that as a good enough reason to vote for him toDay.

These two posts I agree with and I’ve said so earlier. **Cygnus42 **looks town to me. I am also not gonna push for you, TexCat. You may be alpha, but the chance of that is pretty low. I don’t think there’s a harm having you with us further into the game.

Precambrianmollusc has been wrong about nearly every topic he’s voiced an opinion about. He’s presented the unlikeliest possibilities and continued to argue them after being corrected. I’m very unsure about him, but I find it strange.

Alright, see you later.

Sario

I have been harder on Sario than I probably should have for non-participation, but he was the fifth player to sign up for the game and in post #28 he expressed excitement at playing. So what are we to make of the absences?

Post #357: Objects to tie-breaking scheme as 'not mafia." Fair enough.

Post #410: Votes for Chronos because he (Sario) does not like the tie-breaking scheme. Not so fair —nor in the best interest of the town— especially as I believe wolves were looking for a reason to go after our experienced players.

Post #494: Unvotes Chronos and votes septimus. Guess it is positive that he unvoted Chronos, but this was after even JSexton said a vote for **Chronos **made no sense.

Post #657: True enough!:slight_smile:

Post #919: After a long absence** Sario** turns up to announce he will not be voting on Day2. JSexton did not vote on Day1. Hmmm… Says he will drop out and asked to be replaced if he cannot find time to play.

Post #946: But enough free time to come in and post fluff during the night, playing off a post of …JSexton.

Post #1045 Seems miffed at me for checking his profile to find when he last logged in to SDMB . But I was getting desperate for some information. However, in the spirit of fairness I have not done it again and I am sorry if that was out of line.

Post #1048: More substance. Thank you. However, the comment that somehow TexCat is less likely to be wolf because JSexton was wolf does not make sense to me. What has one to do with the other? Sure I think TexCat is less likely to be wolf because she was investigated and called Town, but that has zero to do with JSexton being wolf. The night investigations by Bayard were independent events. (I read a joke once where someone said to be safe he always carried a bomb on a plane, because while the odds of having one bomb on a plane were small, the odds of two bombs were just astronomical. That’s the same type of thinking).

#1064: Expressed an opinion on my fake “Plan B.” Town points.

There was so little to work with. I understand Sario’s objection to any vote-rigging scheme as “not Mafia,” but lurking and not voting are also “not Mafia” in my book (but hey, what do I know, this is my first game). Or at least they are not “Town Friendly Mafia.” But I suppose a wolf might well play that way.

Verdict: Undecided (But leaning heavily wolf)

Plum(3): ThingFish[1114], Texcat[1118], JohnnyB[1142]
Mollusc(1): Diggit[1129]
Diggit(1): Chitwood[1132]

Not Voting: Biotop, Cygnus, Nonsuch, Plum, Mollusc, Prof, Sangfroid, Sario

Is this really all the votes that we have so far?

Well, I’m waiting for Biotop to finish his series of analyses before casting mine. They make great sense to me so far.

Re: Sario

I agree there is almost nothing to work with. The one post that stood out for me was his vote on Day One.

He seems worried about the wrong thing here.

As town, I’m always worried that I’m making the right decision. I voted Septimus, but worried whether he was really scum, or whether it was just that he always seems to look like scum to me.

Sario seems to be more worried about he’s going to look than whether he’s making the right vote or not.

I’m going with my gut here. Thing Fish’s argument against Plumpudding is sound, but my instinct, for what it’s worth, is telling me he’s Town. I went after Pepperwinkle, but I’m not ready to pull the trigger on him yet. And while there are other players worth taking a look at, this is what’s pinging my scumdar today.

vote Precambrianmollusc

TexCat

So how can I add anything to what has already been posted about TexCat?

Unlike the other players, the only question on TexCat is whether she is the Alpha. So let’s look at that.

In post #1114 Thing Fish claims the probability that TexCat is Alpha is only 8.3%. I dispute that. TexCat was singled out for suspicion because of her wolfish response to a plan that was designed primarily to find the Alpha Wolf! I didn’t single her out. Experienced player Chronos did. He who was lynched on the very first night.

Now of course Chronos could be wrong, but to determine the odds of TexCat’s chances at being Alpha simply as compared to picking a random player would be illogical thinking. And Bayard did not investigate her on a whim either. He did it because he thought she might be wolf. There was a case for that.

That said, I don’t think it necessarily means that TexCat is Alpha. It’s just that we can’t dismiss it as so low a probability as **Thing Fish **does.

I assume most players are taking the time to follow the post # arguments several players have been making regarding TexCat. I don’t think it is necessary to list them all again.

Here are my reasons for thinking TexCat is not Alpha:

  1. Post #337: If TexCat was Alpha, how could she make the mistake of posting the comment about our Seer investigating Alpha the first night? She has played this game before. She would be well aware of her invisibility to the Seer if she had been given the role. If she is Alpha she would not be throwing anyone off the scent by posting this because she was only being suspected of being Wolf at the time. Maybe she could look ahead and figure out that she might be investigated later and this would throw everyone off. Do you believe that? I don’t. If ANYONE suspecting TexCat can give me a good reason why an Alpha would make this post, I’m all ears.

  2. Post #577: Her vote for Plumpudding strikes me as innocent person striking out in the only way she can. Why would a wolf do this?

  3. Post #1061: She does not think my phony Plan B violates the “spirit of the game”. I think that is a town post, and the sort of thing I was hoping to get when I made up the whole Plan B thing. Maybe she saw through me, but maybe not. Town points.

So here’s my assessment. Without a Seer investigation TexCat would still be high on my Wolf list. But I can’t see how she could be Alpha and make some of the posts she has.

The probability of TexCat as Alpha is not anywhere as low as 8.3%, but it is still as low as others I have been willing to call town. Therefore:

Verdict: Town

Thanks Prof. Pepperwinkle. I was hoping I was not being off-putting by posting so much. That said, remember I am a newbie who is just flailing around. If you are a newbie Town then you have just as much chance of making good deductions as I do. And I want to hear your thoughts! We all do.

Indeed I wish I was experienced so that I could have some idea if what I am posting is worth anything or not. Guess I will learn eventually. Indeed, if some of the more experienced Town posters want to make cases for or against various players, their wisdom will likely be superior to mine.

I do have one advantage though. I think everyone knows I am Town! Well…almost everyone.

:smiley:

I don’t often use “LOL”, but I certainly did at that! Thanks for the laugh, Bio.

Yep, pretty much describes me in a nutshell…

First, thanks for all your hard work and analysis, Bio. I really suck at that sort of thing. Any time I’ve attempted it, it seems I just end up confusing everyone in the process.

Second, you’re correct in your (leaning toward) Town assumption, as I too just want to win for our dearly departed comrades. Means nothing in and of itself, of course, but you deserve a hearty pat on the back for your efforts.

Third, all I can say at the moment is that I am understandably wary of anyone who tossed my name out there just to see if it would stick - an easy lynch, maybe - a minimal poster easily dismissed as no great loss if done so “accidentally”. Oops.

Dante being a notable exception to those who named me. Not sure why, but even though he tagged me early on, I never voted him, even when the pile-on started. Something just didn’t feel right. I was ready to pile on Cat, though, as were quite a few others until the reveal by the Seer.

That whole sequence of events still bugs me too. The seer investigated Cat for a reason(s), as noted elsewhere. I’m willing to give Cat a pass for now if that’s how the rest of you feel about it, and it seems that’s how it’s going to play out for the time being.

I’m still hearing the ghost of Chronos on the breeze for some reason, though.

Regarding toDay’s vote, I need to keep rereading for a bit and decide. Bio and Thing have made some good points and put quite a bit of effort into sorting information out and I want to give it all due diligence.

Let me second (third?) the comment above: Thanks for all these analyses, Biotop. It helps to have all this stuff in one place.

Thing Fish

I am going to focus a lot on the posts of Thing Fish during Day1, probably more so than any other player. I am doing this because I don’t know exactly what to make of it all, and I hope others will comment. I do not want to make the same “conspiracy theory” mistake I made with septimus on Day1. Indeed, perhaps instead of reading all this, folks could reread all the Day1 posts now that we know JSexton was a wolf, and that Chronos would be their first night target. My choices below are cherry-picked, and I quite acknowledge Thing Fish made many very helpful and insightful comments on Day1 and indeed throughout this game.


Post #232: Disagrees with JSexton on whether Chronos said we should engineer a tie.

Post #240: Says “sorry” to JSexton and votes for Chronos. He is the first to do so.

Posts #244, 245, 247, 275: All helpful posts analyzing the tie-breaker. Makes many more such posts on Day 1.

Post# 277: Thing Fish is praised by JSexton for his analysis and awarded “townie points.”

Post #321: Analyzes the dispute between Chronos and JSexton over snipped posts. Comes down on Chronos’ side. Though there are dashes of accusations against Chronos here as well.

Post #346: JSexton unvotes Chronos based on the obvious fact that the various rigged tie-breaking plans are pro-town.

Post #352: Thing Fish reasonably appeals to storyteller to change the tie-breaking rule.

Posts #373, #376, #377, #381: He still believes Chronos is scum despite the vote rigging plan, though he believes my original plan had “real advantages.” Defends JSexton against suspicions of Jimmy Chitwood.

Post #398: Unvotes Chronos and votes for himself in septimus organized tie-breaker.

Post #422: Nice post analyzing the tie breaker and why it would be good on Day1. Pro-Town.

Post #433: Votes for** Sario** for several reasons, including that he “smudged” Plumpudding.

Post #464: Declares that he believes septimus and I are town, but is *still *unsure of Chronos.

Post #591: Returns and unvotes Sario, then votes for TexCat.

No more posting until the end of Day1


Post #715: The “Clusterfuck” Post. Very interesting and full of helpful information. This took time to create and is very well thought out. On the other hand, if we believe that TexCat is Town as is septimus, then the whole horrible ending of day 1 is just a huge town screw-up with wolves laughing at us. And I think that’s what we believe now, isn’t it? That said, at the time I thought much of what Thing Fish was posting here was dead-on and that TexCat was wolf. So how can I fault **Thing Fish **for thinking that?

Post #717: Can’t argue at all with Thing Fish’s very negative response to Plumpudding’s ill-advised “exhilerating” comment. I was disturbed by it too.

Post #718: Precambrianmollusc votes for Thing Fish because of the “protect septimus” comment. There is some back and forth on this topic involving several players.

Post #753: JSexton praises Thing Fish for “quality” Post#715.

Post #793: JSexton weighs in on the 'protecting septimus" commentary and indirectly defends Thing Fish.

Post #893: Thing Fish defends JSexton.

Post #991: Votes for JSexton after the Bayard reveal. No hesitation.

Posts #1031, #1032: I agree with most of the thinking here, except for the part about Jimmy Chitwood and Prof. Pepperwinkle being suspicious.

Post #1038: Good analysis of** JSexton**'s praising of his “Clusterfuck” posting.

Post #1042: Says we should be cautious in interpreting JSexton’s posts. He is right, of course.

Post #1114: The Plumpudding accusation, well thought out —though I currently believe it too be wrong.

Posts #1126, #1127: These seem a bit over the top and not in keeping with the usual reasoned Thing Fish posts. See, I just don’t believe **Plumpudding ** simply copied his “supposed” PM off storyteller’s post #50. Sure Plum could have, but once he saw how easy it is to do (if he was indeed wolf), I don’t think he would have thought he could just slip that past us and we’d just say “OK.” But I sure can see Plum posting his PM as a “proving” defense without realizing it could be copied from post #50. Plum’s play has been a lot of things, but I don’t think I would call it “crafty.”


I have been dreading all day trying to sum up my feelings on Thing Fish. His case pro or con is the hardest of all for me to read. I am disturbed by all the praising from JSexton and some mutual defending. But on the other hand, Thing Fish has been a prolific player never timid to post as I imagine many wolves might be. Thing Fish has been wrong at times (as have I and others) but he is not afraid to admit when he has been wrong.

There are so many other Thing Fish posts to go over, and they are almost always reasoned and usually seem sincere. I want to be fair to Thing Fish because I know I tended to point out here what seem to me are the more problematic posts while not commenting on many good ones. JSexton is probably too smart a player to praise another wolf so much --though Thing Fish is the player most praised by our known wolf and I gotta say it does bug me. Maybe JSexton just wanted to get on the good side of a smart town player in Thing Fish. I never mentioned the posts where Thing Fish is suspicious of Cygnus42 after Cygnus’ last second attempt to save septimus. I think Cygnus is very likely town and I am hard-pressed to see this action as suspicious. I only wish I could have unvoted septimus in time.

As Thing Fish said about me in post #715, I will now say about him: “Who the hell knows.”
Verdict: Undecided

I would think Bayard investigated **TexCat **to confirm her as town:

Chronos knew TexCat weren’t a mason and he felt she posted scummy. That’s it. Yes, he’s an experienced player and maybe he was onto something, but we can’t be sure about that right now. With TexCat showing up as town in Bayard’s read, we now know she can either be town or alpha, and her likelyhood of being town has increased by a lot. Without the seer the alpha is a wolf with tie-breaking power and that’s it. So even if **TexCat **is alpha, I think it is better to leave her for now to not risk lynching a town, and revisit her case later if we need to.

I decided earlier to put my post-count stat-keeping on hold, as no one seemed interested. ToDay’s incredibly low activity prompted me to do a count of today.

Biotop IIIII IIIII IIIII IIII 19
Plumpudding IIIII IIIII 10
Texcat IIIII III 8
Thing Fish IIIII II 7
Jimmy Chitwood IIIII 5
Nonsuch IIIII 5
Prof. Pepperwinkle IIIII 5
DiggitCamara III 3
Precambrianmollusc III 3
sangfroid III 3
Cygnus42 I 1
Johnny Bravo I 1
Bayard(Dead) I 1
Sario 0

So far we have only 71 posts toDay! Our most active player toDay, Biotop, has posted more than the eight lowest-activity players combined. This has been a problem every Day; activity is very uneven among our players. ToDay is even worse, with low activity all around. How are we supposed be catching wolves in silence?

I have a 12 hour shift at the mill today (time to pay the piper for my past two days off). I hope others will keep a conversation going because I have no idea who to vote for toDay and we pretty much have to get it right to have a realistic chance to win.