DAWN, DAY FIVE
Your narrator apologizes profusely for both the lateness of the dawn, and the unexciting color that accompanies it. I believe that every single person who works in my building has come to my office today, and every single one has had a pants and hair on fire emergency with which they needed instant help. Thus I’ll simply say that:
TexCat, who was a humble Peasant, has been Night killed.
Day Five begins here, and will end on Monday, August 24 at 12:00PM Eastern time.
I very much miss doing that, in point of fact.
Well, now, that makes a difference. We’ve steadily improved our voting with each round. From a Town Role to a Town to a Wolf to an Alpha Wolf. We’re on a roll here.
We have now 11 players left, 3 wolves and 8 town.
Biotop, Cygnus and I voted for the Alpha Wolf. Ain’t no way we’re anything but Town in an election that close. TexCat was vindicated, and the Wolves couldn’t leave her here to fight them. That leaves 3 wolves and 5 town unaccounted for.
Let’s go back to Biotop’s lengthy analyses. Biotop’s verdicts on people summarized:
DiggitCamera - Undecided
Jimmy Chitwood - Town
Johnny Bravo - Undecided, leaning Town
Nonsuch – Undecided, leaning heavily Town
Plumpudding - Undecided
Precambrianmollusc – Undecided, leaning Wolf
Sangfroid – Undecided, leaning Town, (but later voted for him)
Thing Fish – Undecided
Three of these are Wolves. If, for the sake of argument, Biotop’s analyses are right, then Jimmy Chitwood, Johnny Bravo and Nonsuch are Town…
That just leaves DiggitCamera, Plumpudding, Precambrianmollusc, Thing Fish and Sangfroid. And the voting for this last lynch supports that (except for Thing Fish).
Let’s review the voting, shall we?
Post 1181
Post 1182 – Prof. P votes for Sario.
Post 1186 – TexCat says her top three choices for Wolf are Plum, Sangfroid and Sario.
Post 1191 – TexCat switches her vote from Plum (who had attacked her in days past) to Sangfroid (who was attacking her now).
Post 1196 – Biotop points out that Sangfroid, Sario, DiggitCamera and Johnny Bravo haven’t been posting. He votes Sangfroid, assuming a connection with JSexton.
Post 1197 – Sangfroid thinks TexCat is the Alpha Wolf, thinks Mollusc and Plum are in cahoots; and thinks Sario shouldn’t be lynched just because he’s not posting. He offers himself up as a sacrifice, and votes TexCat.
Post 1198 – after reconsidering, Biotop unvotes Sangfroid, votes for Sario.
Post 1202 – Plum says he has no feelings one way or the other about Sangfroid or Sario. In the next post, though, he states some level of suspicion of Sangfroid.
Post 1205 – Cygnus42 votes Sario, after stating suspicions for Plum and Sangfroid as well.
Page 1209 – Sario votes for Cygnus42.
Page 1214 – Plum voices suspicions on Sangfroid.
Post 1217 – Precambrianmollusc votes DiggitCamera. Has Town lean on Thing Fish, and points at Sangfroid as possible scum.
Post 1218 – TexCat posts
Post 1219, Thing Fish also posts a vote count, and the time frame suggests a simple ninja-ing. Thing Fish is critical of Biotop’s posts on Plum.
Post 1220 Precambrianmollusc says:
Post 1222 TexCat is critical of retaliation votes:
Post 1223 - Plum, the last to vote, votes Sangfroid, though tempted to vote Thing Fish .
Post 1235 – Sario unvotes Cygnus42.
Post 1237 – Sangfroid states he thinks TexCat is Alpha, and offers himself up as a sacrifice again.
Post 1238 – TexCat doesn’t understand how Sangfroid’s sacrifice would prove she’s the Alpha.
Post 1242 – Sario votes for Sangfroid, making a tie between him and Sangfroid.
Post 1244 – TexCat thinks Sario and Sangfroid are both scum.
Post 1246 – Sangfroid is expecting to die.
Post 1247 – Plum doesn’t know what to do, asks Sangfroid for clarification of his position.
Post 1248 – Sangfroid has an amusing post which adds nothing to the post.
Later: The tie is resolved, and Sario, the Alpha Wolf, is lynched.
It ended with a tie. It was a very close race. Plum, Mollusc and Diggit all had two votes on them as well. Why didn’t Sario pick one of them? To me, it certainly looks as if Sangfroid was telling the other wolves to let him be the sacrifice to save the Alpha Wolf, and Sario, at least, obliged him, futilely.
So long and apologies all around to TexCat.
Vote Sangfroid.
So last vote was
Sario 3 – Biotop, ProfP, Cygnus
Sangfroid 3 – Texcat, PPudding, Sario
PPudding 2 – Thingfish, JohnnyB
Diggit C 2 – Jimmy C, PCM
PCM 2 - Diggit C, Nonsuch
From my take obviously Bio ProfP and Cygnus are looking very townlike. Sangfroid is confirmed in my eyes
So why did Sario jump on Sangfroid rather than Diggit C or Plum pudding or me?
I assume he thought he would get to swing the vote, probably figured scum could get me lynched the next day or so and so why not Diggit C or PPudding?
I would say because both of them are scum. It is possible that there was a complicated vote for another wolf as sangfroid could have requested with his ‘lynch me posts’
Looking back at the day we didn’t see a whole lot of vote switching
Texcat (town)moved from PPud (?) to Sangfroid (town) in post 1191 doesn’t tell us a lot.
Biotop ( Townish)moved from Sangfroid (town) to Sario (scummy mcscum of scumtown, deceased) in 1199
Then finally Sario from Cygnus to sangfroid
Left in the unknown pool we have
PPud
Thingfish
JohnnyB
Diggit Camara
NonSuch
PCM
JimmyChitwood
Looking back at Thingfish post way back 715, Jimmy C pulled away from texcat to vote Septimus. I agree I cant see why a scum would switch from one town to another
Thingfish is a strong town bet for me
So that leaves the scum pool at
PPud
JohnnyB
Diggit Camara
NonSuch
PCM
As I know I am town looks like we have the remaining wolves somewhere in Plumpudding, Johnny B Diggit Camera and Nonsuch
Diggit camera along with Sario were two people who piled onto Septimus to get the heat off JSexton, so for that reason
Vote Diggit Camera
Vote Diggitcamara
I’m doing this because I think Thing Fish has been on the money all game long. He called out Sario long before anybody else was getting on his back, and fingered Diggit as a probable co-conspirator in the process due to the way the votes turned out on septimus.
Ok I missed Sangfroids vote on texcat
if sangfroid was a scum, why didn’t he move his vote to me then along with Sario I would be at 4 thus getting sario of the hook
I agree sangfroid offering themselves up and Sario and ppudding piling in to get a sangfroid lynch and possibly finger texcat as the alpha may have been it, but that’s a lot of stuff to coordinate with no way to communicate
So why didn’t Sangfroid switch his vote to Sario thus saving his own skin? Better a mere wolf than an Alpha perhaps?
Oh I see this is being asked already. Maybe an answer from** Sangfroid** is coming?
And another question I have.
Why was TexCat killed last night instead of one of the three who voted for Sario?
I am town and I think everyone is pretty damned sure now that Prof. Pepperwinkle and Cygnus42 are also town.
I am perplexed.
I figure TexCat was Nightkilled because:
Alas, poor **TexCat **- good to see my hunch from way back at post #608 was correct at least.
PCM - maybe I’m missing something here, but why is **sangfroid **‘confirmed’ in your eyes? You list **Biotop **as ‘townish’, and **sangfroid **as town - not sure how sangfroid rates higher than biotop at this point.
Maybe we should be a little concerned at over-reliance on Bio’s analyses, but he certainly seems pretty town-like to me. Certainly more than sangfroid, anyway.
Also, glad to see you’re still alive, **Biotop **- thought you were a goner for sure.
+1
Man, I was gonna post “Confirmed Town:** TexCat**”. That’s a bummer. So: TexCat, sorry I railed against you earlier this game. In spite of what you may think, I’m sad to see you go.
Before I begin with my preliminary thoughts regarding yesterDay, I believe my math was off. Realising this and yesterDays result, I think we have a good chance at winning this after all! I apologize for being so pessimistic.
My thoughts:
More Or Less Confirmed Town: Biotop, Cygnus42, Prof. Pepperwinkle.
Prof. Pepperwinkle, Biotop and Cygnus42 is very likely town. As scum, bussing their alpha would be strange, especially with me, Precambrianmollusc and Sangfroid up there as good lynch-candidates. Two of these players, Biotop and Cygnus42 have been on my town-list for some time and I’m happy to add Prof. Pepperwinkle.
Leaning Heavily Town: Thing Fish.
I’ve gone back reading through all of Thing Fish’s history. I think he’s town. I’ve been disagreeing with some of what he’s posted, but he seems genuine in his hunt for scum. I think he has a tendency to read a bit too much into certain cases, but I can’t fault anyone for that.
**
Thing Fish**:I hope you’ll put your attention on someone other than me. If you decide to continue your attacks on me, I hope you will consider addressing me directly. [OOG]You are putting in a lot of effort into your posts and they are very good, but why do you ommit quotes and/or linked posts, especially when you’re building a substantial case? [/OOG]
The Rest: Sangfroid, Precambrianmollusc,** Nonsuch**, Johnny Bravo, Jimmy Chitwood, DiggitCamara, Plumpudding.
I know I am town, but you don’t. Right now I believe there are three wolves hiding among: Precambrianmollusc, Nonsuch, Johnny Bravo, Jimmy Chitwood, DiggitCamara, Sangfroid.
I’m not ready to accuse anyone right now, but I lean town on Nonsuch and Jimmy.
Prof. Pepperwinkle, interesting observation. **TexCat **getting NK’d certainly makes Sangfroid’s behavior yesterDay more suspicious. My biggest question is, why didn’t wolves move votes to save their alpha? Absence? Faith in First Mason not getting involved in the tie?
It boils down to this
for sangfroid to be scum there would need to be a lot of coordination to set up a tie between two wolves, unless they planned it the night before as a contingency or something equally complicated, basically it takes a
A simper solution is sangfroid is town and the other two people to jump on were PPud and DC who are wolves there fore they picked out someone else
Although it is a good point that sangfroid could have saved themselves, by voting for sario, so why didn’t they.
might have to reevaluate my town lean on SF , although it does seam a rather complicated set up if they are indeed scum.
I still think the remaining pool of JB DC PPud and Nonsuch area good pool to go poking in for now whilst we mull over sangfroid.
Wow, that was a pleasant surprise! I had thought we were screwed; that, as Jimmy said, a vote with so many candidates would be easy for scum to manipulate. I have two thoughts about why they couldn’t: 1) maybe there were multiple wolves among the vote leaders yesterday, giving them less room to maneuver. 2) maybe wolves were unlucky in terms of their ability to be online at crunch time.
I have to think that the three brilliant players who voted for Sario are Town: Professor P, Biotop and Cygnus42. So, although I’m still quite suspicious of Plumpudding, I have to abandon the idea I threw out at the last minute yesterday about a Biotop-Plumpudding connection.
I also think sangfroid is almost certainly Town, since Sario chose him to vote for to create a tie at the last minute. Professor P’s analysis is very interesting, but at first glance I don’t think it’s very plausible. Given that our Seer is dead, there is no particular reason for scum to want to protect the Alpha Wolf. I think sangfroid’s actions yesterday could be those of a frustrated townie who mistakenly thinks that people will agree with the case he has been making once he is dead and confirmed.
So that leaves me looking for three wolves among Plumpudding, Chitwood, Diggit, Nonsuch, precambrianmollusc and Bravo. I’ll analyze their votes yesterday in the order they occurred:
Diggit voted for Precambrian early, when Plumpudding had two votes and nobody else had any. If Plumpudding is scum, this could easily have been a rescue mission. Diggit is also the only one of these six players who wasn’t around in the few hours before Dusk, which makes me suspect him based on my theory that scum were undermanned at the end of the Day.
Chitwood then voted for Diggit based on the illogical nature of Diggit’s case against Precambrian. Hard to know what to make of that as far as getting a read on Chitwood. FWIW, I agree with him on the merits of Diggit’s case.
Johnny Bravo then voted for Plumpudding, citing my work as his reason. Looks townie if Plumpudding is scum, not so much if he’s not.
Nonsuch then voted for Precambrian based on a “gut feeling”. Like Diggit, looks scummy if Plumpudding is scum.
Interesting, but almost certainly meaningless, that these four voters all voted consecutively. Then a few “confirmed” chipped in, and, with only hours left in the Day, Precambrian was looking at:
Sario 3, Plumpudding 2, Precambrian 2, sangfroid 1, Diggit 1, TexCat 1, Cygnus 1.
Here, whether he’s town or wolf, the obvious move (as he acknowledged) would have been to cast a self-defense vote on either Sario or Plumpudding. He voted for Diggit, which could be called OMGUS, although I think he had good reason to be suspicious of Diggit, given how poor his case was. This makes sense if he and Plumpudding are both scum, or he might simply be town behaving oddly.
Which brings us to Plumpudding, who didn’t vote until there were two hours left in the Day, which seems kinda wolfy. Before he voted (for sangfroid), we were at:
Sario 3, Plumpudding 2, Precambrian 2, Diggit 2, sangfroid 1, TexCat 1, Cygnus 1.
Again, passing up what would seem to be the obvious self-defensive voting, regardless of alignment. In his case, this makes logical sense only if he and Precambrian and Diggit are all scum. I’m definitely making a note of that possibility, but it seems probably too good to be true, especially in light of the fact that Precambrian and Diggit were voting for each other. Most likely he just made a poor strategic decision, which of course could happen whether he is town or scum. So, I don’t draw any conclusions about Plumpudding from this vote, but he still remains my top suspect based on the case I presented yesterday. Also, as noted in the comments above, I now think that lynching him would provide valuable information about several other players.
So I ask, what do I need to do to get you people to lynch Plumpudding? Chitwood, Nonsuch, Precambrian, Professor, Cygnus, sangfroid: you all complimented me on my case yesterday, but didn’t vote for it.
The only one who cited my “refusal” to respond directly to him in detail as a reason for not voting for him was, um, Sario. Are there others who would like me to go over his response point by point? As I’ve said before, I am voting for him based on his actions, and he is defending himself in the only way he possibly can, by claiming these actions weren’t scum motivated, which of course I can’t disprove because I can’t read minds. So I just don’t see the point of getting drawn into a huge debate about whether Plumpudding’s description of his own internal state of mind seems plausible or not. Likewise, you all were there for Day One and you can all make up your own minds about whether my description of Plumpudding’s behavior on that Day was fair.
So I will once again vote Plumpudding. I see we have simulposted and will try to respond directly when I have more time.
Diggit would probably be my second choice, although it does give me a bit of pause that two other people in my unknown pool have just voted for him while citing my Day One analysis); could they be scum trying to lynch a townie Diggit and make me look bad at the same time? You know you’re a Mafia player when someone agreeing with you makes you paranoid!
Sorry, this question goes for more players than just you, Thing Fish.
Okay, my short list is Sangfroid, 'Mollusc, Diggit and Plum.
I strongly feel that Sangfroid’s repeated reference to sacrificing himself was a call-out to the other wolves to tackle him instead of Sario.
I do want to know why Plum was asking Sangfroid what to do just before the EOD.
what gives you a more town lean on Johnny B and Nonsuch?
Biotop’s analyses and their votes on the last lynch.
I didn’t ask him what to do, I stated I didn’t know what to do, then I asked if he could reply to my earlier post:
I was considering moving my vote as I was bloody unsure about it.