Well, having been there myself on the first Day’s vote, and having messed that up, I can understand that.
That’s not what my defense consisted of at all. I showed you my interaction with JSexton, more or less chronologically, I’ve said and shown several times that I was asking for elaboration on the **JSexton **case, shown several times why I was critical towards **Septimus **and TexCat(hint: they didn’t provide any answers). My biggest “defense” is the fact that **JSexton **never was under any real heat during Day One. His votes came early to mid-day, after he stopped going after **Chronos **the case against him came to a halt as it consisted of nothing but a vibe and him being *against *Chronos. The fact is that absolutely anything can happen in that timespan Day One. If he’d come up as a candidate late in the Day and I’d been all over his accusers, then I’d see your case. I didn’t, I asked about his case, got no answers, asked if any of them were willing to move and got no response. That’s pretty much it. How does that require you to read my mind?
Yeah, +1 and, um, sorry about the whole trying-to-get-you-lynched thing.
My impression was that they were both providing fairly reasonable answers, and you repeatedly found some reason to disregard these and keep pushing your case. Again, everyone here was around for Day One and can make up their own minds if that is a fair impression or not, rereading to their heart’s content if necessary.
At the time you voted for TexCat, you couldn’t have known that the wagon on JSexton was going to fizzle out. I don’t accept that wolves wouldn’t try to manipulate the vote to save one of their pack just because it was still early in the Day.
Because, although your explanation is perfectly reasonable (FWIW, I had no suspicions of JSexton either), it’s also very reasonable to assume that you did what you did because you are scum and were trying to protect JSexton. I have no way of knowing which of these explanations is true. All I know is:
*You voted for TexCat to move her within one vote of JSexton, who was leading the vote at that time.
After not having paid any attention to septimus, you started attacking him at precisely the moment he also became a real alternative to* JSexton.**
*On multiple occasions, you made comments discouraging the JSexton lynch, but never came right out and said that you were opposed to lynching him or that you thought he was Town. Again, this could be because you are Town and didn’t have a strong read on him, but did have strong scum reads on the other two candidates. But the alternative explanation, that you are scum, also fits the facts well.
Any of these actions COULD be town motivated. I think it is unlikely that ALL of them are, and so you are still my #1 suspect. However, I think you are right that I should turn my attention elsewhere. As I said, nothing that happened yesterday makes me any more or less suspicious of you, so the case I posted yesterday still stands on its own merits and I will devote what time I can spend on the game Today to checking out some of these other sketchy characters. That’s also, btw, why I didn’t do a lot of quotes or links in my case against you – just time constraints.
Why? Our Seer is dead, so the Alpha Wolf can’t fool him. Our First Mason currently has the tiebreaking power, and if he dies, that power will pass to the top living wolf in the hierarchy. Why would the wolves care about protecting the Alpha particularly at this point in the game? Granted his death did 100% confirm TexCat, but I think most people were already pretty sure she was Town and the wolves weren’t going to be able to lynch her anyway, so that’s not such a big deal.
Hey, all!
Lots to say, and yes I will get to it by late evening. If you check, a lot of my posting is late night EST, as I have very busy days.
Two quick things: Yep, I am still Town, and yep I still offer myself as a Town lynch, if you all think it can help Town overall to win the game.
I still offer this because we now have a decent shot at the game, and I know I haven’t been a whole lot of help, so if one of us has to sacrifice themselves, I’m OK with it.
Still rather survive, of course. More on this later.
And, sorry, Tex, I really did think you were Alpha…
Well, this is a pretty friggin’ interesting start to a Day already! The cross-reliance on other people’s cases is getting pretty confusing. I think there’s a danger that it creates a lot of sort of undergrowth for wolves to hide in. If I was a wolf, I would sure as fuck latch onto a confirmed-by-acclamation Town player’s analysis on another Town player and say “I’m on board with this.” Pretty effective as long as other Town players are doing the same thing. Not that I’m accusing anyone in particular of being a wolf for doing this, just pointing out that as long as Town players do it, wolves can do it.
After all, the only true hallmark of being a Town player is not knowing what the fuck is going on, so thinking somebody is Town isn’t necessarily super well-correlated to having good reason to adopt their voting stance.
No-brainer, I thought. You’re “pretty damned sure,” but meanwhile I was 100% certain TexCat was Town and we all should’ve been once the Seer and Alpha had been revealed. There’s some possibility I’d vote one of you guys down the line, because I’m not totally sure, so if you’re all Town the wolves still have some prospect of getting a mislynch on you guys. I’d have literally never voted to mislynch TexCat after the Alpha was down.
Ugh. I hate this. That was not what Prof. P said at all. He said that a reason to kill TexCat would be for the opportunity to make those who went after TexCat look bad. In other words, he’s saying this is maybe what the wolves want us to think. And you’re saying “yeah, totally, sangfroid looks shady as hell, right?” And you were the other person he mentioned! What? It wouldn’t make a lick of goddamned sense for the wolves to have lynched TexCat to give us CORRECT clues about Sangfroid… what on earth was going on in this interaction?
See the two above points - my policy since my regrettable day one decisions has been to just pick who I think looks the overall scummiest and stick with it, rather than try to get into any kind of coalition building. YesterDay I ended up looking at Diggit and Sario, as you’ll recall (and actually I had a vote switch to Sario typed up with about 15 minutes left after I saw the tie, but then I remembered my new policy about sticking with my guns; so go me once again, I guess…)
So I think you’re making a reasonable case, it just hasn’t been up to now my own independent favorite. Plum is growing on me, though, to be honest. I note that Diggit is showing up on lots of lists of possibles for lots of players, which is a kind of crowdsourcing I do agree with. Still lots of ways it makes sense to me that he’s scum. I’ma think about it.
[QUOTE=Sangfroid]
I still offer this because we now have a decent shot at the game, and I know I haven’t been a whole lot of help, so if one of us has to sacrifice themselves, I’m OK with it.
[/QUOTE]
Same question as before - how do you imagine this being necessary or helpful in any way?
- Not editing to clarify - nightkilled TexCat not lynched. Lynching not really a wolf move
Realizing there is a certain amount of irony in saying this, I pretty much agree with all of jimmy 's post, especially the bit about not accepting someone’s line of reasoning just because you think they’re town and being skeptical of those who seem too quick to do so.v
Jimmy, and everyone else:
I do not offer myself as a voluntary Town lynch lightly. I would prefer to stay alive and lynch wolves. That said, I’m in an awkward spot that I almost can’t defend.
I went after Cat, hard. I genuinely thought she was Alpha.
I also thought Sario had pretty much checked out of the game way back around post 410 or so. He really seemed to dislike the game mechanics and the plan being hatched to out wolves (not surprisingly, in hindsight), and I saw him as a “low-post-count” easy lynch. Several players have advocated lurker lynching, and I’m starting to see why now.
Since I can’t defend these actions, all I CAN continue to do is repeat my offer to die for Town, so at least the voting pattern will tighten up on the wolfies a bit and reveal enough to secure a win for the white hats, if possible.
Not ideal, I grant, but if I can make some difference in this way, I will.
Would any wolf at this point in the game make that offer, and mean it? They’re down to three.
Losing me as Town, followed by a night kill would drop our ratio to 6:3.
Ask me questions! I’ll try to answer what I can. This game has had a steep learning curve for me, I’ll say that.
All I can say after that (for me) disastrous voting cycle is that taking out Cat was a very crafty move on the wolves’ part. I thought Bio was done for sure. Still not sure why they did what they did.
A flaw they saw in Bio’s analysis that works in their favor, and want him to continue to push, maybe?
Okay…
First thing’s first:
TexCat: You deserved better. You were treated poorly and suspiciously by some — including me. I will do my best to see you are still a winner. And I will look back over your posts for the truths I may have missed.
Here’s what gets me. All Somewolf would have had to do was say “Hey, that Sangfroid does look mighty suspicious… I am going to change my vote.” Then there would have been no tie. And while we might have been suspicious of that person, we couldn’t have been sure. So why didn’t that happen?
Were they both wolves?
Or were all the wolves looking to each other to see how to play, but being unable to speak directly, they just screwed it up? If so…Hahaha!
Sangfroid: I want a straight answer as to why you did not vote for Sario to save yourself? Are you saying you were so sure that TexCat was Alpha, despite the good evidence against it, that you would rather die than vote for Sario? Do you really think it would have convinced us that TexCat was Alpha if you had died and then turned up town? Had you not been reading our posts?
What possible good would it do for us to lynch you if you are town? This offer makes no sense if you are wolf, BUT IT EQUALLY MAKES NO SENSE IF YOU ARE TOWN!
[snip]"…voting pattern will tighten up on the wolfies… "[/snip] What? Explain please.
When Sario voted for Cygnus that last day because of his low post count, I had to laugh. Really,* that* reason from someone who was hardly posting at all? Hahaha! But it also showed how little **Sario **had been following the game. He carelessly picked someone we all “knew” was town because we all had been studying the game. Studying the game: that’s what good townspeople do.
But why should a wolf be bothered with poring over all the posts? A wolf is not trying to solve a puzzle, especially with almost all the town power roles exposed. A wolf’s just riding along trying to look innocent.
That also brings me back to Sangfroid, who for whatever reason imagined a scenario where **TexCat **and **Plumpudding **were both wolves (Post 1197)? How could anyone possibly believe that…anyone who has been puzzling over all the responses looking for clues and tells? I don’t get it.
I think there are a lot of answers to this whole crazy game to be found in studying that last Day carefully. I am happy about ThingFish and** Prof. Pepperwinkle**'s detailed thoughts. These are posts that help town. I have referred to both posts several times already while composing this post.
Why did Sario choose Sangfroid over all the others with two votes? This is a very interesting question. Maybe THE question. And I don’t have an answer…yet.
One more thought: Maybe Sangfroid is right about one thing. Maybe I wasn’t night killed because I am wrong about someone… someone I have called town. Maybe I have been spared because I am supposed to keep a wolf alive by continuing to voice my misguided thinking? Hmmm…
Or maybe I wasn’t night killed because they feared my death might justly lead others assume I was right about my thinking and thus needed to be silenced. I just don’t know. Who the hell does?
But Town… I think the worm has turned. I truly think we can really win this thing!
And where is DiggitCamara? Not even a post over the night to say “Hell yeah!” I am liking Thing Fish’s theory about a missing wolf in the last few hours. I am liking it a lot.
Wow, what a difference a Day makes! From being seriously on the ropes, it feels like we’ve fully turned it around. And who was it saying “lynch the lurker” doesn’t work as a strategy? (I’m kidding; don’t answer that.) Kudos to everyone who saw something in Sario I did not. (Not to mention TexCat, who I voted for.)
I agree that, with this result, it seems extremely unlikely that Professor P., Cygnus42 and Biotop are scum. This is particularly welcome in the case of Biotop, as it makes his thorough appraisals of everyone more reliable. Given the lay of the land, I thought I’d sort of re-appraise my view of everyone.
Leaning Town
Thing Fish
Biotop
Professor P.
Cygnus42
The last time I did this, I had a “lean scum” category and a “not sure” category. But I think we’ve reached a point where we really can’t afford to be agnostic about anyone. So:
Leaning Scum (in rough order of suspicion)
Precambrianmollusc
Plumpudding
DiggitCamara
Sangfroid (aka Death Wish)
Johnny Bravo
Jimmy Chitwood
This probably deserves an answer:
I have a few reasons, none of which may be stellar, but here they are:
[ol]
[li]The way Precambrianmollusc went after you following Day 1 (I’ve gone into it at length and don’t need to rehash it) not only struck me as scummy in and of itself, but reminded me strongly of a similar post by JSexton that pinged me at the time. I felt/feel bad I didn’t pay closer attention to that feeling and was/am determined not to repeat that mistake. It’s possible that’s throwing good money after bad.[/li][li]I think I owe it to our side to present a case of my own, which people can then sign on to, argue with or ignore, as they prefer. Even if I’m wrong, my good-faith error may point someone else the right way. I don’t just want to say, “I’ll have what he’s having” every time. (I think Jimmy Chitwood’s post above mirrors my own attitude in this regard.)[/li][li]Corollary to #2, perhaps, is a bit of plain ol’ contrariness. I just want to try to figure all this out myself in my own Clouseau-like way.[/li][li]Plumpudding’s bellicose ways struck me as too obvious to be a scum ploy. This was kind of my thinking re: Dante G, not that it stopped me from changing my mind and voting for him.[/li][/ol]
For all this, Thing Fish’s case is persuasive — so much so that I’m genuinely not sure how I want to vote. Mrs. Nonsuch and I are going away for our anniversary tomorrow afternoon and I will be mostly incommunicado until Saturday evening at the earliest, possibly Sunday evening. I wanted to put a vote on the board tonight, but I’ve gone back and forth and back and forth and I can’t make up my mind. Barring any shattering new insights, it’s going to be for one or the other.
Have a good weekend, everyone!
Sorry, there should have been a “could” before the “make”, I’ll clarify later as I have an appointment at the dentist.
Again, I think this was a no-brainer and am confused by the effect it’s had on so many of us. TexCat was investigated and revealed as Town by a person who was revealed to be the Seer, and then somebody else was revealed as the Alpha.
That made her 100% confirmed Town, the only one of us who that applied to. Everyone else is subject to speculation.
Your point is true enough, and perhaps explains why the other Wolves didn’t rise to save Sario. However, as others are remarking, making sense of Sangfroid’s posts is a bit like a trip to Wonderland: curiouser and curiouser. They don’t make sense at all to me if he’s Town offering himself as a lynch for the good of the Town. It makes more sense to me looking at him as a Wolf caught up in the moment in the last hour or so before lynching, and trying to making a coded message to his fellow Wolves, one obvious enough to them, but cryptic enough that he’s not 100% giving himself away.
I am finally off from the mill Friday and plan on some more investigative work.
We have two more confirmed pieces of information, and that means reading through the entire thread again with that knowledge. We also have one more day of very informative posts from which we can try and infer knowledge.
A while back I thought it would be helpful to see whom people suspected as the remaining wolves. I think we should all do this now. If you add Sario and JSexton to your list, can you reread the entire game with your five wolves identified…and does your theory hold up to your scrutiny?
And this: If we lynch another wolf toDay we are in great shape. If we lynch a townie, it gets tight. But, are there players that if we knew their alliance for sure we’d gain lots of additional information? If so we might want to consider the most wolfish among them as our best lynch.
You’re underestimating the value of confirmed information in this game. The gulf between “confirmed town” and “pretty sure somebody is town” is vast. Sario’s death was huge for us because it forced the Texcat night kill - any other wolf lynch would have been much less problematic for them.
Sario could have hopped on either me or **Precambrianmollusc **instead of Sangfroid. I guess me would have been the best option for him, considering Thing Fish’s case and how much general sucpicion I’ve managed to arouse. He chose first to vote Cygnus42, a player I and several others have defended as likely town. He then jumped onto the Sangfroid case without much of a reason for why. Did he do that to make me and **TexCat **look more suspicious? To make **Sangfroid **look less suspicious? If **Sangfroid **is scum, a bus-attempt to get townie-points for being in on a scum lynch? He surely knew that if **Sangfroid **was town, **Sangfroid **going down would only make suspicion of him stronger. It didn’t look like he was very interested in saving himself and I find that confusing. I found it confusing close to deadline yesterDay, and even more now when learning his role.
Why no wolves tried to save him, I have no clue.
**Sangfroid **could easily have saved himself by voting Sario. This could also be said of me, but somehow I didn’t become a prime candidate. If it would have come to that, I would have changed my vote to save my own ass, as I know it would have been in the best interest of town no matter how suspicious it would have seemed. **Sangfroid **didn’t even when it came down to a tie. Why? I implored **Sangfroid **to give us some kind of defense, but we got nothing. **Sangfroid **not cooperating was in Sario’s favour.
To me it looks like a town **Sangfroid **either just gave up or blundered under pressure, or a scum **Sangfroid **pretending to be a town giving up, playing a game of dare. Nothing of this paints a clear picture of what happened, so I am pretty confused as to what I should think. But I wouldn’t dismiss Sangfroid as a possible wolf just yet.
How would TexCat being NK’d fit into this, I have no clue. She could have been NK’d because she had experience, was active and now confirmed town. She could have been NK’d because she was on the trail of wolf. She could have been NK’d to sow confusion, throw us off someones scent or to put one of us, like me for example, in a worse light. She could have been NK’d for all of those reasons or none of them.
One other thing to mention: if there was a wolf plan in the works yesterDay, it probably didn’t work out the way they hoped, since we lynched their alpha.
So I should probably have said, “interesting point, Prof. I’m pretty confused!”.
I guess my objection was mostly around not actually getting those answers, which in turn made other people think of me as unreasonable.
I for sure couldn’t, but seeing as the most powerful case laid out against him was Mahaloth’s, I didn’t think much of it, to be honest. Of course, for you to be able to confirm this you have to be able to read my mind.
No objection here. This is true.
[quote=“Thing_Fish, post:1304, topic:725099”]
After not having paid any attention to septimus, you started attacking him at precisely the moment he also became a real alternative to* JSexton.**
Also true. I don’t have anything other in defense than me being some zones away, which I admit is pretty lacking.
Also true.
Sounds good. If your case moves better toDay than yesterDay, I’ve said what I have to say about. If I go down, I now realise we have a much better chance than I previosly thought. I’m happy you’re devoting time elsewhere, as we need your input. Atleast I feel that way.
About your Biotop-thing yesterday. I know you’ve discounted it already, but it serves as an example of how I think you read a bit too much into certain events sometimes.
Plumpudding seams to have gone from fairly aggressive , certain of everything postings ( mr fucking blinders) to saying he is confused and no clue how tex cat night kill fits in , and to a substantial snuggling / mea culpa post to thingfishs case.
PPuding certainly got some stick ( also from jsexton) for posting style , so highlighting the change for playing a game rather than scum reasons does put PPud in a damned if he does , damned if he doesn’t change style situation . That said now he is under pressure rather than defend he is more or less saying “yeah I was wrong but just because I was confused and certainly not an opportunist scum”
I am working my way through Johnny B and DiggitC posts, noting interactions etc.
up to day 3 so far.
For DiggitC other than my reasoning that he is in the remaining pool of scum, was, along with Sario ( why the hell does iphone think Dario is a better option than Sario for autocorrect , they are equally unlikely names) in the vote pilling on Septimus to get the heat off jsexton, and his FOS , nay votes on me for opportunists case making over a reasonable discussion on the seer claim and possible paths forward, had posted quite a bit that I agree with. But those postings tend to be about game mechanics ( what is the seer for) rather than actual cases.
More to think on there.
Johnny B had quite a back and forth with Thingfish ( post numbers to follow once I can get online with my laptop) over a similar beef that I had with TF on TFs " I was protecting Septimus " comment . Not sold on JB either way at the moment.
Interestingly nonsuch is voicing suspicion at me, but not voting, for reasons that JB had a much longer interaction with TF over, yet has JB at the bottom of their list of scum.