Hi all, about halfway through a reread and just had to quote this great piece of pro-town advice.
Hopefully will have something interesting to post by the end of the Day, right now I’m on my way to Wrigley Field.
Also wanted to congratulate** Prof P** for his detailed post at the start of the Day. I don’t agree with his conclusion, but nobody can say that he isn’t making his own cases anymore.
For what it is worth I was trawling back through Johnny Bravo (JB) and DiggitCamera (DC) posts
in summary JB is a bit all over the place
DC posted a fair bit on game style , play mechanics etc, which is all very neutral, but his only real cases seam to be 'that’s the scummiest thing I have ever seen) type posts, so far and has voted for Septimus , Dante and Me
my view on the post up to day 3 Jsexton lynch below.
JB
163 not want to engineer ties wifom generator
393 not lurking on vacation – suspicions of Septimus
460 votes septimus for septimus changing his mind
531 makes a case for septimus, semas to be post voting for Septimus
546 catching up
566 claims to have made most detailed case against septimus and asks what JimmyC didn’t understand
567 Jimmy C rebuts 566
568 JB says something , not sure what
587 points out that texcats vote appears to be a self vote which is a wolf thing apparently
598 gives a vote count breakdown – very helpful
603 fixed vote count
Day 2
748 defends against Thingfish
771 talks about thingfish – same reason as I had the TF seamed certain about septimus with the whole “I protected septimus” thing
775 TF defends from JB
777 TF continues defense
781 783 791 TF JB continue the back and forth
804 snarky comment from TF to JB
853 seams to call a truce with TF, opposed to people publishing list of who they think is scummy
869 Votes DanteG ( both JB and DC on the dante wagon, but then so are ProfP, TF and Cygnus))
897 responds to DanteG
910 vote count
981 – talks to ProfP about the set up
984 – suggest the Prof P not edit and leave errors on the record
989 JB votes Jsexton
DC
187 agrees with Jsexton always look for those who have perfect information
201 of DanteG post – “this has to be one of the scummiest posts ever” , apparently I managed to tip that , but note the similar attack, this was to DanteG I don’t want to tip my hand post, so maaaaaybe he is town reacting , as others did to DanteG post, but similar patern of ‘this is the scummiest post” when he sees the opportunity to go after town
216 DiggitC votes Dante G
276 disagrees with Plum and stresses the importance of the masons in the end game – I agree with him there
370 tie break plan discussion
406 – points out plan is flawed due to loss rate of town to wolf – but goes with it
430 corrects Prof P on how the Doc works
432 – talks more about the plan and how the plan of self votes and wolf swapping votes is bad for town – I agree with this
490 votes Septimus for appearing scummy –
564 reiterates vote reason for septimus
Day 2
764 takes issue with thingfish, votes for DanteG
774 TF admits had missed DC explanation
788 disagrees with Bayard saying a loose cannon townie is unhelpful (ref PPudding) DC points out play style is a bad thing to lynch for – defending PPud or true statement?
801 DC points out in his experience wolves don’t interact during the day
830 agrees with biotap about the lists (post your list of most scummy)
860 responds to TF – ( I may have missed a post) says thinks the list posting is bad for the first few days, points out seer is to confirm identities not spot wolves – I agree with that
881 TF discusses seer with DC and points out lists may be bad high signal to noise ratio
Day 3
BioTop, TF,nonesuch, ProfP all vote immediately for JSexton,
996 DC does as well, it would appear there are just as many town immediately voting without questioning, so my suspicion for DC doing that may not be the best thinking
Jexton 312 – talks about the third vote, oddly
510 jsexton urges/attacks? Nonesuch to get a vote out
752 – says of sangfroid that they seam to have inside knowledge – smudging attack by scum
832 attacks PPudding
859 says leans town on PPudding
Taking the advice given a bit upthread, I’m going over posts from Day One with a look at interactions with our two confirmed wolves.
Be back a little later at my usual late evening EST time…
My day off at the mill has been changed from Friday to Sunday. I would prefer to be in depth researching and posting earlier in the Day, but as they are fond of saying at the mill, “It is what it is.”
Precambrianmollusc, what bothers me about your suspicion of Bayard’s claim is that it just seems reactive, and pardon me for saying so, not thought out. Wolves had dropped four town including three of our few power roles. They had every reason to be content and let the game play out. They didn’t need a scheme. If Bayard was wolf, he would have been exposing himself for no reason. We would certainly have lynched any false claimer the next day. We didn’t suspect **Bayard **of anything before this.
This seems obvious to me, so DiggitCamara, who I am highly suspicious of currently, had I think a very good reason to call you out over it. And you can sorta see how a wolf might panic and post the way you did.
DiggitCamara:
I am calling you out.
Why have you not posted anything either last Night or toDay? No cheer over the Alpha getting his due. No response to the criticism and votes hurled your way. No answer to why **Sario **might have chosen **Sangfroid **over you to create the tie. No response to our lively discussion over recent events.
This reminds me too much of Sario.
Thing Fish quite reasonably thinks a wolf might have been absent during the last few hours of yesterDay. You were absent. He earlier guessed that two of the three who voted for septimus in a flurry together on Day 1 might be wolves. We know Dante was not and Sario was. That leaves you. You reacted immediately to that unfortunate claim doubt of Precambrianmollusc but have not followed it up with any sort of critical thinking. I can see how wolves might react to a single weak post but then not go to the trouble to tie it in to earlier thoughts and investigative work because, as I have said before, wolves have little incentive to investigate – and it hard to fake realistic scumhunting.
Maybe I will have a better idea later after heavy research, because rereading, debating and thinking — that’s what I do to try and find scum. That’s what other players are doing. Or maybe I won’t get a better idea. No better idea at all.
Vote DiggitCamara
Bio I did not cast suspicion on bayard a claim, I pointed out that we had a claim, it needed to be poked at , absolutely no one questioned or blinked at bayards claim, only scum know it to be correct ,. Once I posed the question we got a few responses pointing out why is was unlikely that it was a fake claim. But we did not know . DC came in ( along later with nonsuch) that it was clearly scummy to suspect or question a town claim. No it isn’t , we have to poke every option thrash it out and get to some feeling of "possible , but improbable " on the various guesses of what has ha
Apparently tapatalk thought I had said enough.
Happened. My suggestion was that if bayard is the seer, it will be confirmed by his imminent death ( barring super ballsy scum) we ignore Jsexton for the day and continue discussion . Down side is we leave an experience player (JS) alive over night to help scum discussion . JS , in my opinion, shut down discussion , with the words " that’s enough of that " to close down further town talk. A clear signal to his fellow wolves to shut up .
When I suggested we pause and think through the issues , DC and others just yelled " seer is obvious you must be scum " on first pass is an easy potshot at a town, but their case is just that i doubt yen seer , which they know to be a true claim. All I said was "let’s think this claim through before jumping on an immediate vote and shutting the day down.
Fair enough. But it is not your doubt of the Seer claim that bothers me most. If you had simply posted that we should be suspicious of the claim (“let’s think this claim through”) well Ok. I don’t agree there’s much to think through, but Ok. Let’s talk it out.
But the hold up on voting JSexton until the next Day part is harder for me to swallow, and not just because we now are certain he was wolf. If we are going to discuss the claim, then let’s see where that leads before we decide what to do about JSexton. And that would naturally come from a discussion of the merits of accepting the claim.
The wait until next day lynch part is what sounds to me more like a desperate wolf. I mean wolves are playing with a guy who is supposed to be this great Mafia expert (and this is no dig at JSexton, because I imagine he really is expert brilliant at this game). I can see being a bit starstruck and excited to be on his small team and then (oh no!) he is outed and there could be an incentive to want to jump in and “help.” Then the clear message from JSexton might have been for you “to shut up.”
Ok but if I am a starstruck wolf puppy, it would be daft to point out the major issue of leaving Jsexton alive is that he could help out wolf puppies, which was front and center of my possible flaws in keeping him alive. It is back there in my post. Keep a wolf in the bag and continue the discussion , the downside is an experienced wolf could help them out one last night . All out in the open for discussion .
If jsexton was telling me to shut up, then I am not doing a very good job of following my über wolfs instructions , on account of pointing out prior to his post , that wolves want to shut down discussion, pointing out at the time of his post that it could be a wolf code to sTFU , and long after the issue has dropped off the radar , raising it again.
The suggestion of keeping a wolf in the bag to continue discussion has potentially netted us DiggitC pushing a week case. Looking at others who also did the same thing.
Anyway it is late , just arrived home and it is bed time . 'Til tomorrow .
OK, let’s start here.
All excellent questions, Bio.
The short answer to most all of them is that I’m in over my head and even though I have read and reread everything I can to the point of having an eye-curdling headache, I am still unsure of so much in this game.
I tend to be more of a blunt edge than a honed blade, generally speaking.
I really, truly, did believe Cat was Alpha. I stuck with it. Any one who is Town can’t not be suspicious of someone who has gone after them, knowing yourself that you are Town. I tried to temper that thought process, to no avail. And last minute votes have always made me twitchy, so I have a natural aversion to them. Not that I haven’t, just that it is not often.
Offering myself up makes little sense for Town, I understand, but less for wolves, IMO. At least you all would have one more piece of the puzzle to sort out. Who did I vote for? Who voted me? Where does it all fit in with the collective voting pattern of the remaining wolves (this was my “tighten up” statement)?
I’ve had a number of votes cast for me. Hell, I think I was the first vote of the game, by Dante, who was later revealed to be Town, and for whom I never did vote, even though I would have had a perfectly reasonable excuse to do so.
Several others have come after me, for reasons I consider spurious. If I’m lynched, accidentally or on purpose, there should at least be some decent info in the past voting. I do seem to just make things more confusing for everyone, hence the “Death Wish”. Not that I really want to lose my stool at the Cecilton Inne watering hole, mind you. It’s just that if someone has to go, it may as well be someone who not only hasn’t been very much help, but has actually added to the confusion he ranted about wolves liking to do!
Not my best effort, and I am sorry for that.
And I believe Sario chose me simply because he knew I was Town, and that my loss wouldn’t make a big fuss, given my erratic nature so far.
As to why Tex and not you? Damned if I know, but I have re-read a lot of your analyses, and have to conclude there’s something in there the wolves like for the moment. If not, probably just priorities: Tex first, you next. We’ll see.
Hope that helps a little, and I’ll be back on tomorrow AM.
Lastly, as someone who was just up on the block, those of you leaning toward Diggit are sounding pretty convincing. I will recheck the post areas mentioned again for myself, and hopefully have something to add.
Sorry about my current absence. I’ll try to post a bit more tonight, or during the weekend but Real Life Issues have been distracting me from posting more at this site.
Just one point though: how in Cecil’s name do you propose I answer your question about Sario’s vote for Sangfroid over me? Do you want me to ask him or what?
Thoughts and theories are greatly appreciated. Saying “I don’t know” is Ok. But silence is being intepreted, at least by me, as a reluctance to share. Town members should not be reluctant.
And would have only taken a second to post “Hooray!” back on Monday. Two minutes of your time. But if you were disappointed with the result you might not have felt the impulse that the rest of us did.
Well, looks like the reread may not be finished before Night. My major impression so far is that Jimmy Chitwood seems pretty Townie.
If you’re going to use me as an excuse for your vote, you could at least vote for the person I’m voting for!
As I said in my day-opening post, I think that lynching Plumpudding would provide us with a lot of useful information. If he is scum, Nonsuch and Diggit look suspicious for their votes yesterday, and if he is town, I would be suspicious of Johnny Bravo for quickly piggybacking on my case against him yesterday.
Biotop, I’m pretty suspicious of Diggit as well, and he certainly has been a low-participation player in general so far, but I think you’re making a bit much of his recent absence.
I’m going back over everything too. I hope to have something worthwhile either tomorrow or Sunday, but it’s slow going.
Heh. I might still switch. I think you’re pretty good at building cases, but at the moment I like the one on Diggit more. I promise I’ll do a re-read before the end of the Day.
I’ve certainly been aggressive, but you seem to have forgotten what I was so sure about: **TexCat **being a good Day One lynch. I still voted her Day Two, sure, but already then I admitted my case was becoming weaker and weaker as a Day Two case. I’m not gonna quote myself on that as I’ve done that several times.
As for snuggling, I’ve told **Thing Fish **my position. I think he’s reading too much into his own case. Actually, I *know *it. After correcting my own impression of where town is standing, I now know I’m not as important to town as I thought. I believe a lynch of me might shed some light, especially regarding yesterDay and that may actually be better for town than anything else I’ve done this game. I’m not offering myself up as a martyr, since a wolf in the bag would be better than me in a bag, but if it comes to that I hope it can bring you more information and clues as to where to put your suspicion. Is this clear to you?
I *was *wrong! I’m *not *afraid to admit that I was wrong. Rather than continuing to be wrong, I’m trying not to be and having a fairly hard time as stakes get higher and higher. I wasn’t confused, I am *now *confused.