First Sangfroid, and now Plum (although this one makes more sense to me). Remaining experienced players: is it typical for players to offer themselves up as sacrifices for Town? And are they usually Town?
Ok. First you summarize my entire position against Precambrianmollusc. Which, as you correctly said before, was my only evidence against him. Why? Well, because in general I have a very hard time finding evidence against a player with his … slightly incoherent to my eyes… style of posting. However, I have gone with my instincts in such cases before and it has sometimes actually worked.
Afterwards you actually say that my case had merit. So… who are you trying to bamboozle?
And this, quite frankly, I find to be uncalled for. Look: I’m not one to do fluff during the Night. I usually don’t, especially not when due to real life duties my participation during this game has been less than stellar. And when I actually am out doing stuff in real life, during the weekend, which I haven’t been able to during the week.
I fully endorse the idea of calling out lack of participation during the Day. But during the fluffy Night times? Please don’t do this.
(<out of game>It personally reminds me a bit of the way people look at each other during official events in 1984, the novel by George Orwell. Insufficient happiness=treason</oog>)
Probably so. Somewhere back among these pages someone made a comment about a “super-enthusiatic newbie.” They probably could have been talking about me. My zeal has sometimes caused me, I am sure, to read more into simple conversation and behavior than is actually warranted. I trust those with more experience to help me focus on what is really wolfish behavior. Thanks.
Hi all - sorry for my absence, first time at a computer today.
Not sure what to think for today…going to ponder the rest of this evening, and get a vote down tomorrow (Saturday). I’ll be unavailable on Sunday, and not sure about Monday AM yet.
My yesterDay suspicions were of **Plumpudding **and Sangfroid. They’ve both managed to mount a defense recently though, but are they genuine?
I know there are good cases out there against Plum - and I Want To Believe, as the saying goes, but I’m not there yet. I’m concerned that it’s like with Dante G. He made some noise, got a bunch of attention, and ended up a townie post-lynch. Plum certainly has been noisy and gotten a lot of attention too. Would it end up with the same result?
I wonder, during the pre-game wolf discussions, would they nominate one to be the loud/vocal wolf, while the rest lay low? Vocal types usually earn townie cred - good way to hide in plain sight.
Sangfroid’s self-defense is plausible, but not super-convincing. I’m not sure we’d learn much from a sangfroid lynch though even if he’s town. Dunno about that ‘tightening up’.
I didn’t have too many thoughts on **DiggitCamara **either way…but there may be some merit to the ‘missing wolf’ theory at the EOD yesterday - seems like they shoulda made more of an effort to protect the Alpha, but who knows? I guess the only advantage to the Alpha at this point is in the secret tiebreakers.
Anyway, I’ll get a vote on the books tomorrow, probably for one of these 3. I"ll be able to monitor to some degree by phone after that, in case of any late-day developments.
And DiggitCamara, I apologize if I was out of line.
This post is pinging me very heavily.
The thing about this game (and I used this method before to suss out scum) is that we don’t know anything about the rest of the players, unless, of course we have “perfect knowledge”. So my basic behavior is to rely heavily on myself and very little on appearances. Your posts yesterDay seemed very helpful analysis and it just came to me: it was pretty much the way storyteller played (as Godfather) during his first game around here, if memory serves. He won the Game due to this.
Everyone was very impressed about the helpful player he was. Everyone came to rely heavily on his analysis in the end, which, during the end game came to convince the remaining townfolk to lynch each other.
One way to gain the trust is to agree with other players. Endearing themselves to other players, either by taking away the necessity of analyzing pages over pages of posts during the last few Days is one way to do it. Another one is to cozy up to particular player/victims who seem to be leading the charge in one direction or another, like you’re doing to ThingFish right now…
I’m still reluctant to vote for you. Mainly because I hate OMGUS votes. But I’ll have to take another look at your behavior during the first Day to see if I find more evidence that convinces me you’re scum.
For what it is worth I still harbor some suspicion of Thing Fish based on some of the ideas you posted above (applying them to him instead of me) as well as what I posted earlier in my player analysis. See I don’t really know what to think of anyone other than Prof. Pepperwinkle and Cygnus. I am fairly very sure both of them are town. Everyone else…?
And DiggitCamara, you need to have that pinger checked, because what I am posted was the truth.
Self-voting is not considered a pro-town move, even if it’s being done by a townie. Do some googling and you’ll find that it’s frowned upon almost universally. It’s often a scum desperation move - a scum self-votes to try and make people say something like, “this reaction seems pretty genuinely frustrated, maybe he is town after all!”
That’s what it looked like to me. Thanks for the confirmation.
But why would Sario choose Sangfroid to create the tie if he (Sangfroid) was also a wolf? That’s what I cannot get my head around. I keep coming back to this, but unless they are all wolves, then he had the option of a town player to lynch in his tie. And if we were dispirited before, we certainly would have felt lost if we had lynched a town player yesterDay.
My best guess is that Sario thought he knew who the first mason was, and was confident that he’d have a vote.
Look at how people’s “probable town” lists have played out up as a result of that vote. We have some people who are convinced that those who ended the day with a Sario vote is obviously town. If things had gone the other way, then Sario would be on those lists instead.
If Sangfroid is a wolf, Sario’s vote may have been a calculated risk that backfired.
Or it may be that he was never paying attention to the game at all and had no real plan in place.
Sorry, this is an incomplete thought. I meant that he was confident that he’d have the tiebreak, if that wasn’t obvious.
This would certainly explain his first vote for Cygnus.
But let’s look at where the votes were just prior to Sario’s vote for Sangfroid.
From **TexCat/Thing Fish’**s posts #1219-1220 and adding Plum’s later vote:
Plum(2): Thing Fish, Johnny B **
Sario (3): Prof P. , Biotop, Cygnus**
Precambrian (2):** Diggit, Nonsuch**
Diggit (2): Chitwood, Precamb
Sangfroid (2): TexCat, Plum
TexCat (1): Sangfroid
This is where we stood with one hour and 9 minutes to go in the day.
So there is not enough room for all those with two votes to be wolves, so** Sario **did have the option of voting for a town player. So why vote for a wolf (If Sangfroid is one)?
With 51 minutes left in the day, he unvotes Cygnus.
With 32 minutes left in the day he posts again. He laments having no clear suspects, but takes time to comment on TexCat and **PlumPudding **unexpectedly being on the same voting side
His only excuse for voting for Sangfroid was to “get a vote on the record.” He does this with 25 minutes left in the day. There are no further votes by anyone else.
Prof. Pepperwinkle, I know the self-voting martyr is a scum tell move, but I can’t see Sario picking a wolf instead of a town.
Now suppose all the other “two vote” candidates were town and Sangfroid wolf? Can you imagine a scenario where Sario would choose the one wolf among four possible player choices to create the tie? A tie that will possibly lead to that player’s lynching? Unless there is some serious internal wolf conflict we do not know about in the den, I cannot see that happening.
Therefore if Sangfroid is a wolf, then at least one and probably two (or even three?) of the other four “two vote” players are also wolves. Then I guess it might seem to make sense to sacrifice a wolf to muddy the situation. Could the wolves have talked the scenario out beforehand? Because I can’t see Sangfroid’s confusing postings as being any easier for wolves to read as a wolf plan then for town to read them as …well as whatever they were if he is town.
So right now, if Sangfroid is town, then likely at least one of the other non-chosen “two voters” are wolves, and if Sangfroid is wolf, then a number of them almost certainly are.
He didn’t, because I am just a confused Townie who got lured like a kid into the back of the van by promises of “Great for Beginners!” (No slam intended to our esteemed host, I’m still having fun. Just confusing fun.)
This has been a pretty intense game so far, IMO - mysterious plans to mathematically eliminate the bad guys; players threatening to sub out because of this; power roles knocked out very early; Town on the ropes; a nail-biter vote followed by a random tie-breaker; Wolves take one on the chin…
Need I go on?
I’m in way over my head, sure, but what a seriously weird game.
Regarding the events of yesterDay, maybe there actually are a couple more wolf pals in that last vote mix, and that’s why Sario settled on me, but I’m not one of them.
The only way I can prove that is by dying.
ETA:
Just to add that I was composing that post and then posted it before I saw Bio’s post 1354.
One last thought: If all of the “two vote” players are town, and the three of us who voted for Sario are also town, then that only leaves Johnny Bravo, Thing Fish, Nonsuch, and Jimmy Chitwood all as wolves.
Any of those four players who are not actually wolves can look at the voting and unless they buy into DiggitCamara’s theory of me as scum, then they know at least one of the “two vote” players is wolf.
Oh, and Sangfroid, I just read your last post as I was previewing mine. There is another way to prove you are town (if you are indeed town):
Win with us while staying alive.
- This post makes my head hurt
- I’ll stop thinking just now. Sorry if that disappoints Biotop
- I’ll have to take a raincheck on my deeper analysis until tomorrow
Sorry DiggitCamara, that muddled post has every right to make your head hurt. My logic is wrong. There are three wolves out, not four. I am not only a newbie, I am an idiot.
So of our four players, Johnny Bravo, Nonsuch, Thing Fish, and Jimmy Chitwood, three of the four would have to be wolves for there not to be a wolf among the "two voters. So while any of those four does not know for certain a wolf is among the “two-voters” if they are town, they do know that if there is no wolf among the “two-voters” then the other three of the four on this list must all be wolves.
Does that make sense? It’s not as helpful as I thought it was when I so carelessly posted the other. Still, it might help.
It is too late in the evening for this. I am going to bed.
Ugh. I think preferred the easier logic of the rigged self-voting.
At the end of the day, this is irrelevant to whether you’re wolf or scum.
The very first game of Mafia I ever played (it was actually run here by storyteller), I ended up as the alpha wolf, and you can be damn sure that I leveraged my newbieness to avoid suspicion.
So that may create bias on my part, but I’m not inclined to trust folks who cry newbie. To me, it sounds more like crying wolf.