Possible explanation: Because it would have put even more suspicion on him. If we’d lynched a townie yesterday because of Sario’s change of mind, I think we would have been fairly certain of who to vote for toDay. Dead town**Sangfroid **would also have put even more suspicion on me and could have put suspicion back on TexCat as a possible alpha.
:rolleyes:
Wolf or town.
One day I will get through a post without needing an edit.
Perhaps. Though Sangfroid was the only one who still thought TexCat was Alpha. I have been trying to look at all the possibilites for Sario and his vote considering the implications in all the cases. All I know is that I’d pick a townie if I was Alpha. Especially with 25 minutes still in the Day and there was no certainty a tie would be the end result.
Or you could give a try at answering TexCat’s case against you. I don’t want to lynch town and I didn’t want to yesterDay. A question for you, Sangfroid: Why didn’t you try to change my mind yesterDay?
At Prof. Pepperwinkle: Did you miss the next sentence of the post you quoted? The one where I explicitly state I’m *not *offering myself up as a martyr? If I go down, I’ll certainly not go down voting for myself. I’m gonna vote for whoever I find most suspicious.
Anyway, I’m interested in the case against DiggitCamara and I’m interested in the defense. I haven’t got a strong lean either town or scum, could any of the voters sum the case up for me?
I didn’t miss it, which is why I said your statement was more understandable (or words to that effect). I was still centered on Sangfroid. After Biotop’s logical refutation of that probability I still have reservations (who says they were voting rationally?), but I’m leaning towards Diggit more and more as I look at the old posts.
Actually, given the nature of the game (and this game in particular), and at this point in the game, I am inclined to agree here Bio. I shouldn’t have to give the wolves a freebie Town lynch just for an outside chance to implicate any of them by past voting.
So what else can I do to help?
Fair point. Accepted.
Though also in fairness, this does seem like anything but a newbie game (at least here at the SD) to me.
I liken it to a hypothetical GD thread:
“Great Debate: Easy Beginner Topic: Foreskins on a Runway - Should they be Tipped, and if so, How Much?”
Hey, this looks like a fun discussion…
For me, it’s primarily voting patterns.
First, he said that Dante’s “tip my hand” post was one of the scummiest things he’d ever seen, and was the second vote on Dante right at the outset. I can’t judge him harshly for that - I was skeptical of the same thing and Dante did take a lot of heat. Remember the “scummiest things” bit, though.
Then he voted for himself, then after un-self-voting, he switched to septimus, thusly:
This was the almighty third vote against septimus. It occurred at a time when our vote leader was a wolf (JSexton). It is notable that he didn’t vote for TexCat, however, which would have put her right in the lead. The vote for septimus made the count 4-4-3-3, which was wolf-town-town-town. The next vote was Sario on top of septimus, 4-4-4 and the cluster was a-fucking.
Later, at 564, he explains his reasons further:
I am, for the moment, ignoring the logic of the vote itself - I don’t think it’s great but everybody can decide that for themselves, as I don’t think it’s what’s interesting. What I think is interesting is he’s referring to a post from before the self-voting scheme, about the self-voting scheme, as the reason his vote is staying on septimus.
So, recap – votes Town Dante for one of the scummiest things he’s ever seen. Then septimus gets the ball rolling on self-votes and makes a post about it, and Diggit self-votes. At this point, he’s read both Dante’s scummiest thing ever, and septimus’ self-vote discussion. Then Diggit votes septimus on the “general feel from the current mood in Town,” because he “seemed the scummiest.” Not specifically because of the self-vote post. Then later Diggit circles back to that post by septimus, and says that’s why his vote is “staying.” But it would have had to have been the justification in the first place.
Diggit does not post again that Day, and septimus, who is Town, gets got.
So, next day. What’s our plan?! Diggit’s ready:
I didn’t see an explanation by septimus after that and therefore didn’t remove my vote from him. However, I should point out that I actually should have left my vote on DanteG, mostly because he never explained (to my satisfaction) his strangely “aloof” posts concerning this game, overall. So:
Vote DanteG
[/quote]
Second vote on Dante. Justification is identical to his justification before he elevated septimus above him as a lynch candidate, which he just flatly says he shouldn’t have done. Diggit does not post any further voting-related content, although he posts a few times about meta-strategish stuff. Dante gets got. Dante is Town.
Next Day, Diggit and everyone else votes JSexton.
At 1010, Diggit says precambrianmollusc’s paranoid questioning whether Bayard would fake-claim Seer is:
He promises he will vote for him the next day. He does, at 1129, provides more justification at 1134, give some metagame commentary at 1141 and then checks out for 8 days.
So, all told, that’s two people who have done the scummiest thing he’s ever seen in one context or another, two Townies he’s made early-day votes on and left them there while they got lynched – one of whom was the person who made the “scummiest… ever” posts and one of whom was someone else AFTER that other person made the “scummiest… ever” post but BEFORE he voted that person for good, one timeline justifying that vote that doesn’t really add up, and basically no late Day behavior of any importance at any point in the game. If you’re gonna lay low, this is how you do that.
Thanks Jimmy, that’s a pretty convincing post. I’ve been looking back and I also find this a bit strange:
As an answer to Biotop’s idea, I don’t see this as particularly suspicious, but:
This I find pretty strange. First of all, **Biotop **didn’t modify his plan in any way. He formulated the same plan twice, but apparently it looks more convincing the second time? The downside **Diggit **points out, is a downside no matter if we post lists or not. Players who are “eerily correct” are in danger of being killed off anyway. So, a full flip on the same idea, with some shoddy reasoning thrown in for good measure. I also don’t find Diggit’s responses to Thing Fish later on all that convincing.
Your case is winning me over Jimmy. I’ve looked over his history, I’ve gotten little by the content alone, but combined with his low participation in general, you present a pretty compelling case against him. I’m looking forward to DiggitCamara’s defense, but till then I’m gonna go ahead and vote DiggitCamara.
Lunchtime:
I am not sure the case against DiggitCamara is super strong, but until something better comes along I am keeping my vote there.
Three questions to ask:
-
What additional information might we infer if DiggitCamara turns up town?
-
What additional information if he turns up wolf?
-
And is there anyone else we are suspicious of would give us more information if we lynched that player instead?
This is what you believe is a “full flip”?
I mean… what do you want me to say? I had a bit of time, I kept thinking about the idea and because “the longer I thought about it” I suggested that it be implemented, not during that Day but later on…
So:
- I disagree with an idea
- I keep thinking about it and even though it hasn’t really changed in the meantime it kinda wins me over
- I suggest an amended version is implemented later on
Mind you: this is a discussion about an idea, which isn’t even implemented. Not even a vote.
Pretty shallow reason to vote for someone
Quick vote count, based on my scanning through the last couple pages and looking for colored text:
**Diggitcamara **- 4 votes: PCM, Johnny Bravo, Biotop, Plumpudding
**Sangfroid **- 1 vote: Prof P
**Plumpudding **- 1 vote: Thing Fish
Still several people without votes on the board, including myself…
I’m buying the case for **Diggit **a bit more, though admittedly it’s not super strong. The concept of **sangfroid **using ‘confused townie’ as a cover for wolfiness is also a strong possibility. The mysterious end-of day voting, where we ended up with Sario and a tie…wolf cover, voting slip-up, who knows…
As for the question of information, we as town would probably learn the most from a Plumpudding lynch, even if he turned up town - simply because he’s had the most interactions with other players. **Diggit **and **sangfroid **haven’t had as many interactions with the rest of the world.
Obviously we don’t want to lynch any more town, and I think Plum is my lowest level of suspicion of those 3.
For now, I’m going to ** vote sangfroid**. I kinda don’t want this to turn into a runaway bandwagon on Diggit, without keeping other options open. It may well be the case that Diggit is scum, so I’m not trying to discourage anyone else from going that way.
I reserve the right to modify that based on whatever shenanigans go on tomorrow & Monday morning. I’ll be back in front of a PC on Monday, so I will have time to make adjustments if necessary (and hopefully not 2 minutes before EOD).
The only two other players whom I completely trust have now both voted for Sangfroid. Yet I cannot see why. Sario, the friggin’ Alpha wolf, voted for the guy! Sario almost got Sangfroid lynched.
Sario could have voted for PlumPudding:
All he would have had to do is say he agreed with Thing Fish’s analysis. That and a few comments about how he was unfairly being targeted because of his busy personal life. That would have been enough to avoid obvious suspicion. BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT. If** Plum** and Sangfroid are both scum, wouldn’t it make more sense to vote for Plum and look like a hero for joining the right side of that debate when **Plum **was revealed? If Plum is town and Sangfroid scum, he could have voted for Plum and few would have faulted Sario if the votes had caused a town Plum to be lynched.
He could have voted for DiggitCamara:
The excuse could have been the same, to “get a vote on the record.” If DiggitCamara was scum and Sangfroid is scum, then it would make no difference. If DiggitCamara is town and Sangfroid scum, why not vote for DiggitCamara? BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT!
He could have voted for Precambrianmullosc:
**
He could have used Precam’s doubting response to JSexton’s claim as an excuse. If Precam** is scum and Sangfroid is scum, then it would make no difference. If Precam is town and Sangfroid scum, why not vote for Precam? BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT!
I have a hard time reading both Precam and Diggit as both scum because of how they went after each other after JSexton’s claim. So at least one should have been a tempting town target for Sario if Sangfroid is wolf. Why not vote for that target?
Prof. Pepperwinkle, Cygnus, tell me what I am missing?
Nah, I got convinced by Jimmy’s case. Why do you chose to answer my one additional objection, rather than giving a proper defense?
I don’t see anything your missing, except that MAYBE Precam and Diggit are scum and voting for each other just to cover their bases. And maybe not.
Unvote Sangfroid.
I’m still reading and thinking over at these nearly 1,400 posts, and looking at tips from other Mafia sites. I’ll vote again later today.
One thing I’ve felt needed to be pointed out, which is also applicable here, is that any time something seems obviously to have been something only a Town player would do, or something that a wolf would only do TO a Town player, that alone is good enough reason for a wolf to do it, or do it to a wolf.
Taken to an extreme, this would be an argument that wolves don’t play any differently from Town players, and I’m not trying to say that. But the wolves are not going to be so oblivious as to not know about the old fakeout.
You, Prof. P and Cygnus were the three-person team that led to the lynching of the Alpha. That’s a very pro-Town thing to be. But since everyone knows that (and as we’ve seen, most everyone seems convinced by it and lots of players seem to be leaning really heavily on it for analysis) it can also be a hell of a place to be as a wolf, if the perceived Townie cred one gets from being on that team can carry through to the endgame before the confusion catches up with everyone and they have to revisit their priors.
Same deal with sangfroid and the “if X is a wolf, Sario would never do Z” idea. That is, in and of itself, a belief that gives Sario a reason to do Z. A very high-profile Town move is a smart thing for a wolf to do, even if it hurts the wolves in the short term, as long as they’re making enough back on the margins.
I’m not that moved against sangfroid either, at this point, but I do think it’s an idea that should be out there sooner, rather than later (not that I think I’m that likely a nightkill candidate). Trust but verify. If it seems obviously evidence of something, it would’ve been equally obvious to a wolf that it would have seemed so, so it’s more a balance of probabilities than eliminating possibilities altogether. That’s part of why I’ve been complaining about people propping their votes against others’ cases entirely.
Jimmy Chitwood, you have a point. I fail to understand why wolf Sario would vote for wolf ** Sangfroid**. But I also fail to understand why town ** Sangfroid** would not vote Sario to save himself. That’s almost as bizarre as a wolf voting for another wolf.
Prof. Pepperwinkle, you have been right twice before. What do you think?
I think that Sario posted so little with content we have no reasonable way of following his probable thought processes. Which is way I’m switching my vote, but keeping** Sangfroid** still on my short list.
Unless… would we learn more from a tie vote between Sangfroid and Diggit?
One more question bothers me: Why, oh why, didn’t **Sangfroid **switch his vote to Sario to be safe? He was on and posting right up to the end.
For my money, if we have no better options than to try to guess at the intentions of the departed, the other side of that transaction is much more telling. Sario had to do something to try to save himself. What he chose was to put Sangfroid up on the block.
A Town player has a legitimate reason to be uncertain and act weirdly under the circumstances. A wolf is acting on perfect information. The wolf tried to get Sangfroid killed. Sangfroid being a wolf requires that we infer a much more complicated plan than Sangfroid being Town, and I don’t see why we have any reason to do that at this point.
Frankly, I think it would be a little nuts that the person the Alpha wanted us to lynch would be the very next person we lynched after the Alpha.