That is a good point Jimmy - that’s probably the better way too look at that situation.
Because, actually, I can’t defend myself against the other part. It pretty obviously shows that I used sloppy logic and sloppy thinking when talking about scummy behavior, by continuously referring to it with superlatives.
Which I obviously shoudln’t have done. I don’t agree that it is correct to infer my wolfitude because of that. But it still was very sloppy playing.
The only thing is that jsexton didn’t claim , he was the wolf outed by bayard claiming to be the seer .
Other than that, this is pretty much my reasoning back at the beginning of the day. The only advantage I have is that I know I am town so can narrow down the pool a little, but that doesn’t help you much .
I started the day with assuming sangfroid was town, and I have moved from thinking he was a wolf over the last few days, based on the assumption that for the Sario/sangfroid situation to be an engineered one requires too many complicated interactions to occur .
I am ok with a plum P, DC or nonsuch lynch, pondering on Johnny B
So say we lynch DiggitCamara, what would we learn:
If he turns up wolf:
-
Then we know **Thing Fish’**s “Clusterfuck” post was correct in identifying two out of three wolves. That would certainly push Thing Fish out of my undecided alliance and move him into probable town. Because even if a Thing Fish wolf was trying to be “town helpful”, he would not need to be that accurate in his CF assessment if he was wolf. But of course it would also mean JSexton was being pretty ballsy in endorsing Thing Fish’s CF post and encouraging everyone to read it.
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It would also move Precambrianmollusc into my “more likely town” column because of his dust-up with** DiggitCamara** over the Bayard claim doubt.
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It would also reaffirm my feelings that Jimmy Chitwood is town because he has been voting for Diggit Camara right along. YesterDay’s vote was so close wolves were in real danger of lynching their own if they were voting for wolves…so I think yesterDay was less likely to have had wolves voting for wolves, at least among the among the four “two-voters.”
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So that would leave two wolves among Johnny Bravo, Nonsuch, Sangfroid, and Plumpudding.
But what if DiggitCamara turns up town:
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If DiggitCamara turns up town, then the result is less instructive. We know Thing Fish was wrong in his “two out of three” assessment and therefore it was less dangerous for JSexton to have been endorsing the CF post. But being wrong does not make Thing Fish much more likely to be wolf. It is a null tell.
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There were two who voted for DiggitCamara yesterDay. Precambrianmollusc becomes more suspect and it does not help Jimmy Chitwood. Again, being wrong is no crime, but it isn’t any kind of town endorsement either.
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So does anyone else see anything else we would learn from lynching DiggitCamara and finding him town other than the obvious —that we screwed up?
I think Sario’s case shows why lurking should be discouraged. Like yesterDay, I’m posting a participation count because of low activity. If there’s any errors I apologize. I’m not gonna be at home until late tonight, so see you later.
Biotop IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII II 22
Prof. Pepperwinkle IIIII IIIII IIII 14
Plumpudding IIIII IIIII II 12
Precambrianmollusc IIIII IIIII 10
Thing Fish IIIII IIIII 10
Johnny Bravo IIIII III 8
sangfroid IIIII III 8
DiggitCamara IIIII I 6
Jimmy Chitwood IIIII I 6
Cygnus42 IIIII 5
Nonsuch I 1
[OOG]So while on my anniversary weekend getaway I find out my dad is in the hospital. I am flying back home now (well not right this moment, but soon) and I’m really not sure how much time I’ll have to read and post. This is a bad time for it I know, but it can’t be helped.[/OOG]
Since I don’t know when I can post again, I’ll
vote Plumpudding
because I’m not trusting my own judgement much at the moment and want to get a vote on the board. If I can, I will revisit before end of Day.
I don’t get the sangfroid votes either. DiggitCamara is starting to make sense however.
I was going to paste in a bunch of the comments upthread, but decided to just address our current situation directly.
We all know how yesterDay went down with regard to Sario and myself.
I thought I had answered, as best as I can, the questions of why no vote change at the end (I really did believe Cat was Alpha, and I also do not, as a rule of thumb, like to make major vote changes very late unless some hard evidence surfaces - a reveal, or some such).
Also, as I said before, I am generally a blunt edge - not a lot of subtlety most of the time. I can be mulish - to wit, my insistence about Cat.
I haven’t been much help to my Town, which is probably the primary reason I offered myself up earlier as some sort of misguided penance. I have been properly chastised, by Bio and others, that another Town death doesn’t help matters so much.
This round, look closely at the votes for me, and the comments associated with them. I had one (ProfP, then one more(Cygnus), then one removed (ProfP), as of my last count.
ProfP seems very Town to me. Bio certainly does, unless he’s the bestest wolf ever. Cygnus I had pegged as mostly Town up until his most recent post.
This puts two on me, and closer to Diggit. One more (before ProfP unvoted me) and suddenly I am one vote away from the noose again.
I would ask Cygnus to clarify this part of his post, as I’m not sure why he wants to push for a tie again.
All that said, I am relying on the more thorough analysis of others in my vote for Diggit, as well as my own look back over content. I don’t want to screw up again.
If a few more votes pile on me, and we have another Town lynch, at least there will be that much more content and voting history to reassess and use against the wolves. This is what I was trying - poorly, I might add - to convey with my comment earlier about tightening up the voting history.
It seems to my mafia-challenged brain that as we get ever-closer to End Game (in a sort of even game), the noose gets increasingly hard for the wolves to avoid. As mentioned way, way back at the beginning of the game, wolves HAVE to lie. Every time. Every post.
Truth will out, and all that.
Hopefully.
Based on what’s already been posted and my own best guess:
vote DiggitCamara
I see one argument for DiggitCamara to be town.
When JSexton endorsed Thing Fish’s “Clusterfuck” post, he is endorsing the idea that two out of three (DiggitCamara, Dante G, and Sario) are wolves. If DiggitCamara is town, then any attemps by our Seer to investigate those players would have been unproductive in finding wolves. The one player in the group who was actually wolf was Alpha and would have been been investigated to show town. So if DiggitCamara is town, then JSexton is guiding our Seer to look at three players none of whom would get a wolf read.
Indeed, it might have been a good idea for wolves to toss a little suspicion Sario’s way before our Seer outed himself —because a wrong read by the Seer is quite harmful to town.
Once again, ETA:
What I’m asking of Cygnus is to clarify why “keep options open”? This seems to indicate a push for another tie.
To force a tie-break vote as an information gathering tool?
Something else?
Looks like Diggit is getting a bit of a run away count , having a second close by would be nice to gain some more information . A tie risks exposing the first mason , which is still an important confirm able town role, and if the mason is dead the wolves get an advantage in any future ties which I don’t like.
So: like I promised, a bit of analysis. Sorry to borrow Biotop’s analysis but I think it’s best if I don’t make this post overlong.
Agree on this one.
I obviously disagree: I’m definitely town.
Sorry I never responded to this. No harm, no foul, I’m used to it.
Gotta agree on this one. Re-read his posts, he seems pretty kosher to me.
Not entirely sure either, but I’m leaning Wolf myself. However, this might be because he’s one of those currently voting for me. The explanation for his voteis the main reason I believe he’s a wolf
Just Undecided for me. Maybe town. His intervention here is very townish.
To me , the Verdict on PlumPudding is pretty much wolf. I’ll explain a bit more, down below.
Kinda agree on this one. However, as I look at most of his posts I have to wonder: why are so many of them one-liners, just responses? That would be an easy way to feign participation. And a deeper concern are his continuing edits (for instance here). Overall, I’d be leaning Town.
Pretty sure the Mollusc is a crazy acting wolf. However, since my theory has no traction, I won’t be voting for him.
Last Day’s voting pretty much decided this for me. Town it is. I can’t explain why he insists on being a sacrificial lamb but he’s quite likely just a drama-townie.
Post 1114 makes me believe Thing Fish is the one which used the techniques I described previously and which Biotop’s post is seeing as well. Furthermore, I believe the Wolves had decided to do a “1-2” punch: sacrifice the “weakest link”-wolf (PlumPudding) to give ThingFish town cred. It hasn’t worked very well, but it still might.
I’ll oblige: vote PlumPudding
…aaaand Biotop. I hope to Og he’s Town. Or else he’s pretty much the best Wolf ever, because he’d have shown a staggering amount of work in what is, in the end, just a game and has at the same time managed to lead Town in its best interests so far.
Looking over my short list, I don’t have a clear idea of who is most likely to be scum.
However, there is one name on the list I think we’ll learn the most from whether or not he is.
Vote PlumPudding.
Madame P. has some relatives coming over tonight, and I have an appointment with audiologists regarding getting some hearing aids in the morning. There’s a very good chance I won’t get back before noon. Go Town!
To be perfectly honest, Bio, that “two out of three” comment was based more on frustration about the way Day One went than on any careful analysis – also, at that time we had much less information than we do now. I wouldn’t recommend that anyone base a vote solely on that comment, much less draw conclusions about my towniness based on whether it turns out to be true or not. JSexton’s endorsement was of the post in general and didn’t mention that specific bit, so I doubt the exact scenario you describe was what he had in mind. But maybe…
Well, remember Day Two, how** Dante G** just sort of gradually stacked up votes all day and no other real contender ever emerged? Remember how we gained basically no information from that, because it would have been very easy for wolves to hide either on or off the** Dante** bandwagon? I think that kind of scenario is what Cygnus is trying to avoid, and within reason (as long as it doesn’t lead you to vote for someone you don’t think is among the scummiest) it makes sense to avoid it.
Wait, what nefarious techniques am I supposed to be using again? And given that Plumpudding ended yesterday with only two votes and four wolves were alive, that would indeed have to be considered a very unsuccessful wolfy conspiracy!
And best wishes for your father’s speedy recovery, Nonsuch.
If Plum is lynched and turns out scum:
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I think it clears Thing Fish pretty much in my mind. Despite what DiggitCamara theorized in post #1391, I can’t conjure up a scenario where Thing Fish and PlumPudding are both scum.
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I think it puts **Sangfroid **in a positive light because Plum voted for him yesterDay.
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Johnny Bravo voted for Plum yesterday, so it would sure give him town points.
*** Precambrianmollusc**'s “methane” post#1120 would make him very unlikely to be wolf.
So that would leave a choice of DiggitCamara, Nonsuch and/or or** Jimmy Chitwood** as the other two wolves.
Now if Plum is lynched and turns town, then
-
Those that voted against Plum are not necessarily scum, but they sure earn no town points. Still, I can’t really argue strongly against those voters as the case against **Plum ** has some merit, and because my only real defense of Plum was my town read of his style of play and a pretty much useless “gut feeling.”
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I still don’t see how that makes Precambrian’s #1120 post any more telling because he would know that Plum wasn’t wolf if he was scum. As I said before, a wolf would know a town **Plum **was not simply copying the early post from storyteller. Precambrian seems clean to me either way because of that single damned post.
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Nonsuch came very close to voting for Plum, but didn’t. That would earn him town points in my eyes.
DiggitCamara becomes more suspicious because we have to explain why no one voted for Sangfroid or town Plum to break the tie and save Sario. I say this because Plum was an acceptable target and no one would have had to heavily explain why they were joining that lynch. Thing Fish had made a case so anywolf who voted for a town** Plum** could have used that as a “cover” case for voting for Plum.
OK -
Again, fair point.
I know I’m still up there suspicion-wise for some due to yesterDay’s results, but I see the value in having some tightness involved. And, drama aside, I still do feel crappy about Tex.
Taking a last look at Plum since there is a bit of dialogue over the last few posts.
Will check in at least once more tonight, EST.
Got to think. Got to think. This vote is critical.
…
unvote DiggitCamara
Critical indeed, Bio.
I’d really like Town to come out ahead this round.
Which sort of tie, if one happens, do you think may be most valuable overall? Three way? Two?
Watching for last minute changes, keeping in mind who has already stated they will/may be absent for the rundown to Day End?
So far, me, Plum and Diggit could conceivably face another multi-close vote situation. Can this be worked to our advantage at all?
One more wolf swinging and we look a whole lot better than one less Town.
Last minute thoughts, everyone?