MAFIA: The Game - Ideal for Beginners [Game in Progress]

[Johnny_Bravo]

Anyone have a current vote tally?

[Thing_Fish]

Diggit 4 (precambrian, Bravo, Plum, sangfroid)
Plumpudding 4 (Thing Fish, Nonsuch, Diggit, Pepperwinkle)
sangfroid 1 (Cygnus42)

not voiing: Biotop, Jimmy Chitwood

[Thing_Fish]

This is very interesting. The three people who are not voting are players who I think are probably Town, so that means that all the wolves are probably voting for either** Diggit **or Plumpudding. If one of them is a wolf, at least two and likely three of the wolves are probably voting for the other guy. If we are really good and they are both wolves, the third must be trying to ride the bus of one of the others (or I am wrong about one of the nonvoters).If they are both town, it seems to me that the scum are quite likely Nonsuch, Bravo, and precambrian.

[Plumpudding]

@Biotop

If Plum is lynched and turns out scum:

• I think it clears Thing Fish pretty much in my mind. Despite what DiggitCamara theorized in post #1391, I can’t conjure up a scenario where Thing Fish and PlumPudding are both scum.

• I think it puts **Sangfroid **in a positive light because Plum voted for him yesterDay.

• Johnny Bravo voted for Plum yesterday, so it would sure give him town points.

*** Precambrianmollusc**'s “methane” post#1120 would make him very unlikely to be wolf.

So that would leave a choice of DiggitCamara, Nonsuch and/or or** Jimmy Chitwood** as the other two wolves.

---

Now if Plum is lynched and turns town, then

• Those that voted against Plum are not necessarily scum, but they sure earn no town points. Still, I can’t really argue strongly against those voters as the case against **Plum ** has some merit, and because my only real defense of Plum was my town read of his style of play and a pretty much useless “gut feeling.”

• I still don’t see how that makes Precambrian’s #1120 post any more telling because he would know that Plum wasn’t wolf if he was scum. As I said before, a wolf would know a town **Plum **was not simply copying the early post from storyteller. Precambrian seems clean to me either way because of that single damned post.

• Nonsuch came very close to voting for Plum, but didn’t. That would earn him town points in my eyes.

DiggitCamara becomes more suspicious because we have to explain why no one voted for Sangfroid or town Plum to break the tie and save Sario. I say this because Plum was an acceptable target and no one would have had to heavily explain why they were joining that lynch. Thing Fish had made a case so anywolf who voted for a town** Plum** could have used that as a “cover” case for voting for Plum.

This is a great post. I’m going through the latest posts now, but I’m not going to answer tonight. However, this post by Bio deserves to be taken notice of, so I wanted to bump it.

[Biotop]

@Thing_Fish

This is very interesting. The three people who are not voting are players who I think are probably Town, so that means that all the wolves are probably voting for either** Diggit **or Plumpudding. If one of them is a wolf, at least two and likely three of the wolves are probably voting for the other guy. If we are really good and they are both wolves, the third must be trying to ride the bus of one of the others (or I am wrong about one of the nonvoters).If they are both town, it seems to me that the scum are quite likely Nonsuch, Bravo, and precambrian.

But which is the right scenario? I keep going back and forth. And can we afford to lynch them both and still win if they both turn up town?

[Thing_Fish]

I have completed the first two days of my reread focused on the six people in my undecided pool, and specifically on instances where they expressed opinions about the relative towniess or scumminess of others. I doubt the wolves will bother me tonight, but just in case, here is the gist of what I’ve found.

Diggit was pretty quiiet. The only two players he commented on were the two he voted for, Dante G and septiums.. Pretty easy to imagine that as a wolf lying low on anti-Town bandwagons (or, of course, not).

precambrian was much more effusive with his townie leans, looking with approval on JSexton, Chronos, Biotop, TexCat, septimus, and Plumpudding.. He was most critical of me and sangfroid,(for both of whom he voted) and also of Dante G and TexCat. That’s not really a great record. I think** sangfroid’s** town and I know I’m town. If Plumpudding is scum, he would have had scum overrepresented on his good list too.

**Nonsuch **had pro-town reads on Chronos, Biotop, and me, and scummy reads on JSexton, precambrian, TexCat, and septimus. He reversed himself twice, being for Dante G before he was against him and against Plumpudding before he was for him. The reversals don’t look great, but overall a fairly credible record, especially if precambrian is scum.

Jimmy Chitwood has given a lot of pro-town advice and frequently confronted people saying things that don’t make sense, but hasn’t had a whole lot to say about the possible alignments of other players; he was suspicious of Bayard, JSexton, Dante G, me and Plumpudding.. The only player he viewed as townie was septimus, and that was after earlier being suspcious of him. So if** Plumpudding i**s scum he is batting .400.

I also noticed two things which I think are strong Town indicators for both Chitwood and Nonsuch; as far as I can tell (and I may well have missed something because I was skimming everyone else’s posts pretty quickly), they were the first two players to suggest that Day One’s mayhem might have been motivated by scum protecting JSexton., Jimmy in 874-5 and** Nonsuch** in 900. That doesn’t seem like the sort of thing scum would want to enter into the conversation.

Bravo was pretty focused. He never had anything good to say about anyone and was quite suspicious of TexCat, septimus, and me, and also once of Dante G.. That’s not great.

**Plumpudding **looked townishly on **JSexton, Biotop, me,Mahaloth, and Chitwood. **He initially suspected **Cygnus **but then felt he was town.He was suspicious of, in roughtly descending order, TexCat, septiums, Dante G, precambrian, **sangfroid **(although he changed his mind and thought sangfroid was town late in Day One), Johnny Bravo, Bayard, Chronos (after first thinking he was town), and Professor P.. So kind of all over the place and inconsistent, but of course it was very early in the game.

THEREFORE, if I remove Chitwood and Nonsuch from the list of suspects and look at the current vote count, I see two possibilities:

1. **Diggit **is Town and the wolves are precambrian, Plum and Bravo.

2. Diggit and Plum are both scum, and so is either precambrian or Bravo.

The scenario where **Plum **is town and Diggit scum makes no sense, because two of his voters would have to be fellow wolves. And of course if they are both town. I have been wrong about at least one of the people I am calling town.

That’s enough for tonight. See you all tomorrow.

[Thing_Fish]

@Biotop

But which is the right scenario? I keep going back and forth. And can we afford to lynch them both and still win if they both turn up town?

Barely. That would leave us at 4-3 Town, so we would have no more margin for error at all. Of course, in my opinion Plumpudding looks scummy no matter who the other scum are, so I’m not sweating my vote at this point.

[sangfroid]

Looking waaay back…

Apart from the fact that I am on this post as a vote - and this after the “vote-yourself” bandwagon started - does anyone else see anything curious about this content, taken as a whole, at this point in time?

(Don’t want to poison the well with my own thoughts at the moment.)

I’ve screwed up before, but I just want this out there if I should go missing one way or the other.

@Precambrianmollusc

Bayard – no idea
Biotop - leaning town re the whole tie break analysis
Chronos – leaning town for the tie break analysis, then again he has been on it from day one, for him to be scum we would have to assume he saw from the outset the tie break mechanism was beneficial to scum hence pushed it. Obviously he is an experienced and smart player, my feeling would be if he were a wolf he would not have pushed so hard early without knowing or thorough all the permutations .
Cygnus42
Dante G - the whole tipping hand thing, seams scummy.
DiggitCamara
Jimmy Chitwood
Johnny Bravo
Jsexton think their objection to the coordinated lynch comes more form a ‘play the game; perspective rather than a would trying to stop the coordination
Mahaloth– not sure
Nonsuch
Plumpudding -Seams to be a bit all over the place , throwing a lot of accusations out there, their reasoning may be bad, but I think it’s a genuine attempt to hunt for scum
Precambrianmollusc 13 the towniest town person you could ever hope to meet.
Prof. Pepperwinkle maintaining low profile
sangfroid kind of smudging those ( I think he was aiming at Chronos and Texcat) by calling the disagreements a wolf fight
Sario
septimus I agree with post 360 – scum can screw with us and get mis lynch and things rapidly go sideways, sure we get a would, but we lose the masons pretty quickly, then again like texcat, I can see it as a scum move , depends on motivation, which we cant know
Texcat had I have pretty much agreed from night zero that the coordinated lync is problematic to town. I could see a wolf not liking the scheme, I know I don’t but then , I know I am town, I don’t know what tex cat is. Slight scum lean for now
Thing - lots of discussion

I think I will vote

vote sangfroid

[sangfroid]

For the Town record, I am going to be out this morning running a bunch of errands, but I am bringing my SD logon info with me to try and get online at one of the local libraries and check in one last time. (My phone ain’t up to the task, sorry!)

Also for the record, I could go either way with Plum or Diggit toDay.

I put that post by PCM there because it just strikes me as…I don’t know. It’s bothered me since the beginning of the game.

Apart from my being voted for.
If I can get on OK, I will check back in before Day End.

Good Luck Town!

[storyteller0910]

VOTE COUNT

1. DiggitCamara (4 votes) - Precambrianmollusc (1284), Johnny Bravo (1285), Plumpudding (1369), sangfroid (1387)

2. Plumpudding (4 votes) - Thing Fish (1295), Nonsuch (1386), DiggitCamara (1391), Prof. Pepperwinkle (1392)

3. sangfroid (1 vote) - Cygnus42 (1372)

[Plumpudding]

@Thing_Fish

[Snip]
He was suspicious of, in roughtly descending order, [Snip] Chrono**s (after first thinking he was town)[Snip]

This is wrong.

@Plumpudding

[Snip] I also believe **Chronos **is clean, although I had a few suspicions earlier on.[Snip]

So the opposite of what you are saying here. After Chronos posted the logical conclusion to the tie-breaker plan, I felt pretty sure he was town.

My list of townies at that point:

@Plumpudding

Even though I trust no one, Biotop looks pretty clean to me. I also believe **Chronos **is clean, although I had a few suspicions earlier on. Bringing in meta seems very uneccessary to me, and **Chronos **has been quite calm in his reponse to that from Septimus. Thing Fish and Mahaloth also seem to have towns best interests in mind.

Biotop, Chronos, Thing Fish and Mahaloth. Two are now confirmed town, one seems very likely to be town and you, Thing Fish, who I still think is town.

[Plumpudding]

I forgot to add at the end of my post, later that Day, I add Jimmy to my list of players I leaned town on in post 518.

[sangfroid]

Well, I got back on for the moment. I’m at a public station. Not sure if I’ll be back home to see any last minute shifts.

I would think if wolves wanted to let a tie settle itself by random draw, nothing would change unless Town decides that it should.

Again, anyone have any other last second thoughts?

Since I fortunately seem to be out of the major race this round, is there more value to either of our two 4 vote-getters? It’s a toss-up for me…

[Cygnus42]

Aww man…2 hours to go and there’s a tie again.

I"ll abandon my vote on sangfroid - Jimmy C makes a good point in #1380. The things that seemed scummy to me from sangfroid earlier in the game seem minor now.

unvote sangfroid

The votes on Plum appeared yesterday, while I was offline (except for the first one). Gonna go back and study what prompted them.

I think both **Plum **and **Diggit **are good candidates to have up there though - gonna revisit the last couple days and see about moving a vote on to one of them. I hope I’m not the only one around near EOD…I hate to be the only one to break the tie (especially if I pick wrong).

[sangfroid]

Last message before signing off for now:
Biotop, if you get NK’d toNight, thanks for all your insights and work. It has been very helpful to me, anyway.
And if you turn out to be the awesome-est wolf ever, well, nicely done, sir, nicely done.

[sangfroid]

@Plumpudding

This is wrong.

So the opposite of what you are saying here. After Chronos posted the logical conclusion to the tie-breaker plan, I felt pretty sure he was town.

My list of townies at that point:

Biotop, Chronos, Thing Fish and Mahaloth. Two are now confirmed town, one seems very likely to be town and you, Thing Fish, who I still think is town.

Dangit, can’t stop reading!
Plum does make valid points here, but as I went back and reread them, the early time frame of the game makes everything blurry at this point.

Same with my concern about PCM, BTW, I know.

I think I read too much into early stuff sometimes. I just don’t have a very good grip on deciphering who is being earnest but misguided (as Dante was with me early on) and who is being truly disingenuous.

I do think there are clues to be found though, even early on. But what is the best way to read those early clues??

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

I do think both the candidates are scum, myself. Over on MafiaScum.com it’s stated at practically a given that one of the tells for a Wolf (or Town for that matter) is that he wants to make himself known, if only by stating the negative. Plum has done industrial-style cleanup on his early posts, but they did say “scum” to a lot of people.

“Exciting Day”, Plum?

[Biotop]

I have spent the last two days reading and re-reading this thread until I think I can quote liberally from it in my sleep. I have gone back and forth between DiggitCamara and PlumPudding. Which one is scum? Are they both scum? Are neither scum?

I do not believe there are any crystal clear answers. My gut on Plumpudding has always been town, but after what my gut told me about septimus, I think it is just a stupid gut with no psychic abilities at all.

So it is time to make a vote, and I guess I am going to have to get over the fact that I am not certain about anything.

I trust Prof. Pepperwinkle. I believe I now trust Thing Fish. They are voting for PlumPudding. I cannot figure out why more wolves did not jump on the easy case against Plum if he is town. I think we learn more from finding out about Plum then Diggit. I started typing this to explain why I was voting for Plumpudding, and even to apologize to him if it later turns out I was wrong. Now I am changing my mind again.

Oh you stupid stupid gut! Arrgh!

Sigh. I can’t think anymore.

Vote Plumpudding

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

@Thing_Fish

THEREFORE, if I remove Chitwood and Nonsuch from the list of suspects and look at the current vote count, I see two possibilities:

1. **Diggit **is Town and the wolves are precambrian, Plum and Bravo.

2. Diggit and Plum are both scum, and so is either precambrian or Bravo.

The scenario where **Plum **is town and Diggit scum makes no sense, because two of his voters would have to be fellow wolves. And of course if they are both town. I have been wrong about at least one of the people I am calling town.

This is persuasive, and I think there’s strength in coming closer to a consensus as compared to yet another near-tie. Based on this reasoning, Plum would tell us more and sooner about whether we’re fucking up. Turns out this is the answer to your question about what it would take to get me to vote him.

Vote Plumpudding

[Cygnus42]

Bio - what you just said matches a lot of what I’ve been thinking about the last hour or so (thinking about game, also trying to work a little bit…).

There’s no clear-cut answer on **Diggit **vs. Plum here, we have to go on non-psychic guts and our impressions throughout the game.

I think Thing Fish has had a good case on **Plumpudding ** for a while now, and I’ve been leaning that way more for longer than I have DiggitCamara.

so, I’m gonna vote Plumpudding and hope for the best.

And, even if it does turn out to be wrong (and I hope it’s not wrong) - there’s more to be learned from his lynch either way.