strange things happening but no Town death is always good.
i agree with this. if Hal were truthful about his claim, i’d expect him to use his powers and i wouldn’t try to stop him. i’m still willing to give him some leeway.
Vote Suburban Plankton
I don’t see a reason to believe Suburban Plankton. If someone DID protect him, I don’t think they’d stay silent on the issue, as their power is now spent. So, I think that pretty solidly warrants a vote:
Vote Suburban Plankton
This is kind of a shame, as Subs was one of my town leans. If he flips scum, I need to seriously reconsider my other town leans.
Whew-ee! Lots of things happened while I was gone. So, let me tackle the current issues as best I can.
Let me just say that I trust Hal about as far as I can throw him. The fact that he’s been saving his two (Now three, then two again) night kills isn’t necessarily anti-town. It IS, however, Pro-Hal. I expect nothing less of third party, of course; I’m just saying that having two kills in reserve means that, when the game is a little closer, he can decide it any way he wants. If helping Town is convenient, he’ll do so; but if he can win it for Scum faster than he can win it for Town, I have no doubts about which he will choose. I’m not saying we should lynch him, but I wouldn’t shed a tear if he turned up dead.
Next, regarding Mosier. I truly believe he is the Seraph, for two reasons. First, I don’t trust RyJae. His claim is, as others have pointed out, impossible to check. So, either RyJae was a Town Doctor and did as he said, in which case Mosier would die; or RyJae is Town, lied about his night 1 action, and saved Mosier. But why would Town lie like that? To provoke a poisoning, perhaps, but that seems a bit farfetched. For Town to lie like that would, were the lie discovered, be far too suspicious. Since RyJae could almost certainly not have saved Mosier, the only way to avoid the venom is to be the Seraph. Further, Mosier watched me last night, and saw me doing nothing. Since he has already used his power once before, he must be the Seraph, unless the Restorative was used on him. However, the Restorative was used a long time ago. I find it unlikely that Mosier would wait this long to use his power.
Actual vote will come when I have some more time.
Perfectly valid reasoning, but I don’t think it would really play out in reality.
Let’s say we got toward the endgame with both my kills still in my pocket (not my plan, but let’s just suppose). Even if we were at LyLo, A) I wouldn’t have any more idea if my target were town or scum than I do any other night (so I couldn’t really play “kill town and win with scum”), and B) scum would all but certainly be looking to remove me from the game as an unknown threat.
Probably the closest thing to what you’re worried about there is getting into a situation where I could make a kill and not be concerned about the result – where it’s close enough that either way, I bring one side or the other a hair away from winning (or actually winning, if the game happened to come down to me, two town and one scum).
There’s no reason not to trust Mosier. The plot gets fairly complex if he’s scum, and even if Mosier isn’t the Seraph, he’ll be outed eventually by the real Seraph’s claim or death. I’m content to put him firmly in the town side until something to the contrary pops up.
Hal, of course, is a serious threat to town. We’re getting ever closer to LyLo, and he can pretty quickly close the gap and force a scum victory, ensuring his survival. An inclusive-winning survivor with a kill is far too likely to decide to join scum, in my opinion. I believe at this point he’s a bigger liability than asset. I want scum dead first to give us some breathing room, but we need to reconsider on letting Hal survive. Yeah, it helps scum, but it doesn’t hurt us if his kills would have hit town anyway.
Hal, I find you persuasive enough, but I think you’re a huge liability to town. If you can hit scum with your first kill, I’ll consider not voting to lynch you. Seem reasonable? 
Deal!
Do I get credit for my attempt on Plankton if he comes up scum Today? 
Just wanted to note that I did watch Babale last night, but I have NOT received a response from Storyteller regarding whether I saw anything. Babale knows I watched him because I mistakenly sent my PM urging storyteller to give me my results to Babale instead. I’m still awaiting results of last night’s watch.
Hey Babale, did you do anything last night that we should know about?
Well, there was a girl, and… Oh, you mean in Mafia!
I mentioned on Thursday that I would be travelling on Friday. That was to visit my sister. I thought I would have a bit more time to look at the game while I was there than I actually did. I did manage to get on and get caught up reading a couple of times, but didn’t really have time to think about it much. I have caught up this evening and I think I am about ready to get on the Suburban wagon, but I do want to think things over. I would like to try to consider the different possibilities before I make a definite decision. I will try to have more in depth thoughts tomorrow evening.
Some vote count fun.
I’ve taken the last vote count in each day, and updated for any later votes as necessary.
On the visorslash wagon, we have some of our lowest volume and/or subbed out players. I think the crucial inflection point here is visor’s self vote, which effectively gave scum permission to vote for him. So following his lead were;
SP, Ender, MHaye.
It’s important to remember that for a while, it was very close between TexCat and Inner, at 4 each. The deadlock was broken by:
SP, Ender, Alka, Babale,
with Hal helping by unvoting Inner.
This may mean nothing, but it’s consistent with an attempt to preserve Inner.
This was our most active voting Day by a long way.
There’s a lot of blue on fubbleskag, and I’m not surprised because I think scum would be very reluctant to vote for a Town investigator. (They’ll confirm him, plus it’s generally better to kill someone unclaimed).
But Kelly, also Town, is a safe alternative. So here we have:
Ender, Maha, Babale, Hal.
If Hal is claiming truthfully, Scum would also be happy to drop votes on him, btw.
We start running out of blue at this point.
Ender, **Maha **and **Hal **have repeated their Kelly votes, joined by Mental Guy, **Inner **and gnarly.
I think gnarly’s vote stands out here because it’s the first time he’s been voting for a lynch-leader or runner-up: most of his votes have ended up as throw-aways.
I need to look at the justifications for all these votes, but it’s safe to say I see some patterns emerging.
I don’t think that scum has voted before the last vote the entire game until toDay. Heck I don’t think he has gotten a vote IN before the possible end of Day. But what do I know, all my arguments yesterday where tossed aside.
Point of clarification: is the “him” at the end of your last sentence me or Kelly?
Sorry, not very clear.
I meant you: if you are third-party, Scum wouldn’t have any incentive not to vote for you: they’d probably guess you were Town.
If he’s 3rd party and not a PFK, lynching him is just as damaging to town as lynching a town player and therefore equally attractive to scum.
Vote Suburban
Wow.
That’s 5 votes for Suburban, none for anyone else. At least we’ve avoided Scum driving the vote wagon!
No-one else worried aby this?
Inner - are you quite confident you’re not being suckered in here? Mosier’s town, but are you confident Astral, gnarly and Hal don’t have ulterior motives?
is this still true if both of Hal’s kills hit town? I really don’t think lynching Hal is the same as lynching town.
Sorry if this is a double (or triple!) post. I keep getting “Bad Gateway” errors from the Dope.
Only if you also think that lynching a vig who hits town players is not the same as lynching town.
Stan, wouldn’t that be a little blatant for the scum team? Or do you mean that one of gnarly, astral, and Hal is scum?
If we lynch Suburban and he’s scum, then either scum are running a gambit to give Hal cred or Hal is probably what he says he is. Exactly which option, we can argue about Tomorrow. If Suburban is town, we lynch Hal. It’s not very pretty but it’s the best way I can see us getting the answers we need.
Inner,
My concern isn’t really about SP vs Hal. As Mosier pointed out, we’re getting to the stage where it’s very easy for the scum to manipulate the vote, because their signal is less likely to be drowned out by noise.
Given that warning, I’m just a little alarmed to see the vote count rack up to 5-0 so quickly. I don’t expect everyone voting for SP is scum, but if we’re not going to generate any other candidates, we’re making life ludicrously easy for them.