Vote Gnarly. Please.
Current vote chart:
Enderw24 (3 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (920-939), [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (953-969), [del]Babale[/del] (957-962), MentalGuy (959), Stanislaus (988), [del]Visorslash[/del] (989-1007), [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (998-1014), gnarlycharlie (1010)
MHaye (2 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (967-989), Hal Briston (968), Enderw24 (971)
gnarlycharlie (2 Vote) - Visorslash (1007), Astral Rejection (1014)
Hal Briston (1 Vote) - [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (908-982), Babale (934)
Stanislaus (1 Vote) - Enderw24 (971)
RyJae (1 Vote) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (992-1007), MHaye (1020)
Astral Rejection (1 Vote) - gnarlycharlie (1010)
Babale (0 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (939-967)
Gotta say, that is not a pretty vote chart. The lynch is this afternoon, and we have a vote leader with only three votes? Way too scattershot. There’s 11 votes out there from nine of the 10 remaining players (whaddaya ya say, RyJae?), leaving the two scum with way too much power to manipulate the vote.
I really think there’s an oppotunity being wasted here by not voting MHaye. His lynch would either give us a 100% confirmed townie in Stanislaus, or pretty much make it “game over” for scum.
I really think Gnarly is scum. I really think you should vote for him.
You know, if the scum won’t die, you can use your nightkill and kill MHaye anyway, if he is scum, we lynch him.
Regardless, we lynch Gnarly, then MHaye (probably, depending on how gnarly flips. But if he flips town I will be pretty surprised.)
I’ll swap back to Ender if need be. I’ll keep an eye on the game. Right now, I’d prefer to see gnarly get lynched.
Astral, do not vote ender.
Vote either Gnarly or MHaye, but not ender.
Gnarly (and everyone else) to answer your question of what the odds are of TWO investigators being scum…well, my mind’s blanking right now. I’ve completely forgotten how to calculate a Choose 2 scenario, though I’m going to estimate that it would happen around 15-20% of the time.
However, that’s not what we need to calculate. Because we now have additional information from the start of the game. So now the question is, given 1 investigator is scum, what are the odds that a second investigator is scum That calculation is easy.
It’s this: 1 - (15/18)(14/17) = 31.4%.
Those are the odds we’re working with. Are you, specifically, scum? That goes a little beyond mathethematics. I’ve voted for you once. Let me look through the data and get back with you all.
I think asking “what are the odds two investigators would be scum” isn’t the best way of looking at things. Scum didn’t know who had what powers prior to picking each other, so it’s a total non-issue. The one has no bearing on the other. Mathematically, it would be interesting if we had two scum investigators, but you had the same 1-in-whatever chance of being picked as anybody else, if it were a flip of the coin.
But it isn’t. Inner Stickler and Suburban Plankton both know you and have played games with you. As far as I know, they’ve never played with Ender before, as he’s new to the game. So the question really becomes, are they more likely to pick you or him for their teammate?
I’m trying to work out what I dislike more - Ender’s vote for TexCat or gnarly’s vote/unvote for SP.
unvote Ender
vote gnarly
well, i’ve given my rebuttal and i don’t think i can add anything else. people have been voting me for thin reasons. at least Ryjae will be happy now. i’ll check in every so often and will comment if i see something but will no longer defend myself.
too much confirmation bias and lack of analysis for a game which has a lot of info already.
Unvote all
Vote gnarlycharlie
I wanted to look back over my vote yesterday for gnarlycharlie and the votes today to see if I could gather anything else. First, you can read my explanation for my vote yesterday on post 827. Gnarly refuted it somewhat, though not entirely. But I was willing to move onto other targets and come back to him later.
I came back. And looking into the posts, I’ve found a few more things which really trouble me about gnarly.
First, was the “slip-up” of it for them back on Day 1. I’m actually not so concerned with the language issue. Frankly it didn’t seem that big a deal. I always thought he was talking about the investigation, not the cloak. No, what bothered me was his reaction to the accusation:
Wow. That seems like a major overreaction. I don’t think anyone was implying that, but Gnarly went on the extreme defensive in order to combat the question by TexCat.
But here’s something more substantial that I don’t know if anyone else has yet caught:
Posted on Night 1:
But who does he investigate?
Stanislaus, who hadn’t voted for Visor on D1. Why? Well, he gives a reason in the post above but frankly it doesn’t make too much sense.
But Stan is who Fubbleskag had investigated also, and claimed first. Which means that outing Stan as Town would, at that point, serve to provide no good information to Town. Also, Gnarly is the very first person in the game or the rules or the roles to ever utter the word “Rose” in connection with the Brotherhood. Sure it gets confirmed that it’s correct by Fub, later. But Gnarly wrote that up without even so much as a thought about what this new phrase “Brotherhood of the Rose” was. Why? Was he already familiar enough with it that it didn’t even register?
An alternative explanation for investigating Stanislaus. Stan voted for Snickers on Day 1. Perhaps Gnarly saw this as an opportunity by getting us to think :well Stan was Town and he voted for Snickers so maybe there’s something to that line of though.
Bottom line. Am I sure? No, of course not. No town can ever be 100% sure of any vote. But this mounting evidence is good enough to convince me.
UNVOTE Stanislaus
UNVOTE MHaye
VOTE gnarlycharlie
gnarlycharlie (4 Vote) - Visorslash (1007), Astral Rejection (1014), Stanislaus (1029), gnarlycharlie (1030)
MHaye (2 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (967-989), Hal Briston (968), Enderw24 (971)
Enderw24 (1 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (920-939), [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (953-969), [del]Babale[/del] (957-962), MentalGuy (959), [del]Stanislaus[/del] (988-1029), [del]Visorslash[/del] (989-1007), [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (998-1014), [del]gnarlycharlie[/del] (1010-1030)
Hal Briston (1 Vote) - [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (908-982), Babale (934)
Stanislaus (1 Vote) - Enderw24 (971)
RyJae (1 Vote) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (992-1007), MHaye (1020)
Astral Rejection (0 Vote) - [del]gnarlycharlie[/del] (1010-1030)
Babale (0 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (939-967)
Terrific. This should tell us…well, next to nothing, I suppose.
Gnarly, you’re voting me half because of a joke I made, and half because of OMGUS. It’s a little unfair to dismiss my vote as thin, given that.
The most important thing you can do is clearly lay out your suspicions for us after your flip. If your top scum suspicions are me and Enderw24, you’ve done that. If we’re not your top two, you have a fair amount of time to let us know who to look at after you’re gone.
Throwing your hands up and voting for yourself just further convinces me that you’re scum.
(Updated to include Ender’s post)
gnarlycharlie (5 Vote) - Visorslash (1007), Astral Rejection (1014), Stanislaus (1029), gnarlycharlie (1030), Enderw24 (1031)
MHaye (1 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (967-989), Hal Briston (968), [del]Enderw24[/del] (971-1031)
Enderw24 (1 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (920-939), [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (953-969), [del]Babale[/del] (957-962), MentalGuy (959), [del]Stanislaus[/del] (988-1029), [del]Visorslash[/del] (989-1007), [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (998-1014), [del]gnarlycharlie[/del] (1010-1030)
Hal Briston (1 Vote) - [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (908-982), Babale (934)
RyJae (1 Vote) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (992-1007), MHaye (1020)
Stanislaus (0 Vote) - [del]Enderw24[/del] (971-1031)
Astral Rejection (0 Vote) - [del]gnarlycharlie[/del] (1010-1030)
Babale (0 Votes) - [del]Visorslash[/del] (939-967)
Hal, I don’t get your fatalism. Gnarly’s lynch will be plenty informative. I’m 99.99% sure Stanislaus is town, so testing him isn’t necessary to me. All killing MHaye will achieve is telling us what MHaye is, and I haven’t seen anyone seriously raise concerns about him. If we don’t suspect him on his own merits, lynching him would be a waste.
mounting evidence, huh? nothing new in what you’ve said. you should have voted for me in the past and toDay right away, not hesitate, just like Astral. if you’re town, your logic sucks.
oh, just like the last time i voted myself here? LOL
i’ve laid down my suspicions. i said i would add if i saw fit. the sad thing about my lynch will be that no new info will really be gained.
NETA: FTR, i am GMT+8, in case that matters.
I don’t think I’m being fatalistic – I just don’t see any grand case against gnarly
Let’s put it this way – if there were 100% equal cases against both gnarly and MHaye, then MHaye would clearly be the correct target because of the extra information (confirmation of Stanislaus) that we would get, correct? I’ll grant that the cases are not equal, but that doesn’t mean either one is based on good info.
For me, the extra confirmation makes this an easy call.
Okay, I see where you’re coming from. Do you also understand why I think the confirmation of Stanislaus is entirely unnecessary?
Well…no. I realize he’s…well, you say 99.99%*, I’m going to call it 96%, but neither of those are 100%, and having 100%-confirmed is huge. Is there some reason I missed about why you feel his confirmation isn’t necessary?
Actually, I suppose “necessary” isn’t the best term – I agree it’s not “necessary”, but I think it would be very helpful.
*Technically, I’d be happy with 99.99%, because I figure you don’t get 100% without mod confirmation, and that wouldn’t be the case here – we shouldn’t forget about the whole “one of the hidden elements in the game” line in my PM.