Sorry guys barely been at a computer. Not long enough to read. I’ll vote tomorrow; for now, I will explain my power. I did not protect Visorslash last night for a simple reason: I saw no reason for him to be killed. Sure, he is confirmed Town; so what? If I were Scum, that would turn me away from him. As far as I can tell at this point, he’s harmless to Scum and no more helpful to Town than any other one of us. I decided instead to protect someone I knew was useful: me. I had hoped that Scum would assume that I will be saving my power OR will be protecting someone I thought was Town. I thought I had better odds of being picked for a night kill than anyone else because if I was Scum, I’d target me. Sadly, I was wrong.
I don’t like the reasoning here, but I don’t think it really makes me any more likely(maybe slightly less likely) to think Babale scum. I guess it might not be obvious to a new player why a confirmed Town is such a threat to scum, especially near the end game. It just seems that if he were lying about the protection, he and his scum buddy could have come up with a better excuse than this.
I explained my vote. You have ignored this explanation. You haven’t unvoted me. You haven’t explained why my explanation isn’t enough to remove your suspicion. I don’t believe you are Scum what with two confirmed Town backing you up. Of course, that doesn’t make you town. You could be third party. So for now, Vote Stanislaus.
Now, we know that Stanislaus isn’t Scum, although I don’t think he’s necessarily Town, or friendly. So that means there’s two Scum out there.
My first lean is Ender. Here’s why: his claim makes no sense to me. I don’t know why he would investigate Visor on Night 2. Visor wasn’t going to act on anyone else, not at night. And why would Scum act on him? Makes no sense. At that point, before Visorslash may or may not have regained his power, he was totally useless. So Scum wouldn’t kill him, and Town wouldn’t have reason to protect him. Seems like a good bet that no one interacted with him, and therefore a good lie to tell.
Vote Ender
Another red light regarding Stanislaus is that it took him a very long time to claim the role of Prioress. It seems likely to me that he was indeed third party and didn’t want to lock himself in by claiming until the last possible moment. So for now, my two votes stand.
You’re not entirely correct on your reasoning Babale.
Has he ever claimed Prioress? No. Go back and look and you’ll see. Stan’s kept things pretty close to his chest this whole game, never saying more than he has to.
Is Stan third party? It’s a strong possibility. All I know is that it’s 100% certain he’s not scum and that’s good enough for me at this point. Your vote is wasted trying to lynch non-scum.
As for me, I didn’t watch to see what Visor did. That wasn’t my power. I watched to see if anyone targeted Visor, because Visor was (or should have been) scum’s most likely target and watching Visor was the closest my power was getting to rooting out scum.
Alright, I hear your reasoning and I agree. Earlier in the game, I’d push to get rid of third party. But at this point, we need to find Scum, not eliminate threat. Even though my vote isn’t being “wasted” since I’m ALSO voting for someone I think IS Scum, I don’t want Stan to win the Lynch. Therefore, I will Unvote Stanislaus.
Wee.
So, with the Merchant, the Monk and the Prioress ostensibly in play, the scum went for the obvious move of targeting Visorslash.
That seems a little risky, doesn’t it? Unless they knew that there weren’t, in fact, three potential protectors out there.
That’s why I’m suspicious of Babale. It’s not just that he didn’t do the obvious thing; it’s that scum should have been afraid of targeting Visor and risking losing a kill. But they weren’t. This goes for Astral as well.
However, I’m really worried by the fact that we’re drifting so much. I admit to my part in this, but given where we are there’s no real sense of urgency. So in the interests of at least creating a vote leader:
unvote Babale
Wee again.
Sure, part of me’s concerned about being a vote leader. I’m town. I don’t know how to convince you two of that but my point still stands from above. Play this Day like it could be Town’s last. It may be unlikely, but it’s still a possibility and I think a mislynch doesn’t serve anyone well.
But honestly, I’m more concerned that with about 6 hours to go, we have 4 of the 7 players not casting a vote. Hell I’m “vote leader” with two votes. Anyone can still be lynched if people would bother to get back into this game and the numbers dictate that at least two of the 7 MUST be town. So we’re going to lose this game today for certain not even on a mislynch but because of sheer apathy.
Anyway, I just wanted to get those pieces out there. I’ve got to get ready for work and I have two meetings this morning so there’s a strong possibility I won’t even be checking in until Day’s end.
Back…was doing the “fun in the sun” thing yesterday with the girls, now it’s time to do the “fun finding scum” thing.
Current voting:
Ender - (2 votes) - Stanislaus (1077), Babale (1083)
Babale - (1 vote) - [del]Stanislaus[/del] (1077-1087), Enderw24 (1079)
RyJae - (1 vote) - Enderw24 (1079)
Stanislaus - (0 votes) - [del]Babale[/del] (1083-1085)
Updated Player List w/claimed roles and actions
Alive
6. [del]Alka Seltzer[/del] RyJae - Physician - protected self & visor N1 - no kill?
11. Enderw24 - Nun’s Priest - watched Visor N2 - no activity
19. Hal Briston - Chaucer - gained Shipman power - attempted NK on SP N4 (SP lived) - killed Mahaloth N5 & MHaye N6
4. Babale - Monk - Self-protected N6
9. MentalGuy - Cook - attempted to block Snickers N2
12. [del]Tengu[/del] (now known as Kamino Neko), replaced by Astral Rejection - Merchant - protected Stanislaus N6.
3. Stanislaus - Prioress (investigated as non-scum by fubbleskag, while MHaye says the Cloak of Lies is not in play)
Dead
**7. Texcat - Miller - died with power unused
10. sinjin - Canon - used potion - presumed Restorative, presumed on visor
14. fubbleskag - Man of Law - investigated Stanislaus N1 - S reported non-scum
17. Snickers - Knight - used action - presumably drew attack
16. KellyCriterion - Shipman - power unused - apparently claimed by Hal
15. Mosier - Summoner/Seraph - watched SP N1 - no activity. Watched Babale N4
- Mahaloth - Squire - presumably killed Inner Stickler N5 - killed by Hal N5
- gnarlycharly - Friar - investigated Stanislaus N1 - result: S is non-scum
- Visorslash - Pardoner -Pardoned self D1 - Killed N6
- MHaye - Clerk - checked Cloak N1 - Cloak not in play - killed by Hal N6
- Suburban Plankton - Reeve (claimed Prioress) - didn’t die N4 (despite claimed but unverified attack)
- Inner Stickler - Parson
**
Forrest future reference, why does Ended and others take it as granted that Scum soul go for Visor? I honestly don’t see the appeal.
When I came into this game, my top scum leans were RyJae, Hal Briston, and Babale. One of the weaknesses in my game is that vocal players get more attention. Since my original post when I joined the claim, I’ve backed off these players. (more or less… Been pretty lynchy towards Hal most of the game :D)
Babale has done some stuff that makes me lean town on him, most recently the whole “protecting himself” thing. I think scum would have hashed out a better lie, or at the very least doubled up with me and claimed they protected Stanislaus, too. A lot less attention for picking a target at least one other player agrees with.
RyJae, however, has done nothing to dispel my suspicions, apart from staying out of my way. And at this point, I don’t like his anemic voting and posting records.
I’d prefer a RyJae lynch, but I wouldn’t object to a Enderw24 lynch. I’m still suspicious of him; however, when you look at the swing to gnarlycharlie, it was entirely driven by known-townies and me. The next unknown is Enderw24, who is also the last vote. If you have me in the probably townie column, it means scum had no involvement whatsoever in the switch to gnarly. If Ender is scum, he just capped it off, and as a defensive vote anyway, it’s hard to read.
This doesn’t exonerate Enderw24, of course. Scum have “perfect information” and forget how confusing things are for town. In their minds, maybe they thought Enderw24 was a sure lynch and didn’t see the need to switch to gnarly if it was going to be a short-lived wagon. Scum often think town has them dead to rights far more than town realizes, in my experience.
So, long story short, I think RyJae is the best choice. The town-driven switch to “save” Enderw24 has no bearing on whether Ender is scum or not, which edges me towards RyJae instead.
Vote RyJae
I am going to vote Babale I really wanted to follow the confirmed town but he unvoted him.
Babale voting for a pretty much confirmed townie was painful to watch, or a new player mistake…
As I post I see Astrals post, I hammered gnarly, wrongly. It happens, it sucks actually. I hope you have more to go on than that, since I had been on gnarly since I subbed in. (admittedly wrongly)
Phone auto-correct hit you hard. ![]()
Visorslash was moderator-confirmed to be town. Town will never, ever lynch him.
So for scum, this seriously changes their math. For a regular lynching pool, and for this hypothetical, let’s assume 11 town, 2 scum. Town could vote to lynch anybody but themselves: 1-in-10 for hitting any particular player. Scum are hiding in a 10 person pool in this example.
With Visor mod-confirmed, the pool permanently shrinks. Every single townie now has a 1-in-9 chance of lynching any particular player, which makes it more likely they’ll hit our two scum players.
Scum now have a quandary. They can shoot into the unknown pool, but that’s where they’re hiding. Every townie they kill pushes them closer to getting lynched. In our condition, we had a mod-confirmed (Visor) and an almost-certain confirmed (Stanislaus). We’re not going to lynch either of them, so town players now have a 1-in-8 chance of lynching any particular player. That’s suddenly a 1-in-4 chance of hitting our scum, and this entire hypothetical has ignored case making and vote records so far.
And, because we can trust the suspicions of our confirmed townies, they have an undue amount of influence in the lynch, and what they’re saying is a completely honest attempt to ferret out scum.
Very dangerous for the bad guys. ![]()
Terrific, a three way tie.
I’ll switch to Enderw24 if need be. I’m here.
RyJae is still my preference, and I wanted to express that.
I don’t understand your reasoning. I don’t see Stanislaus as Confirmed Town; I see him as Confirmed Non-Scum. Which means that he could be third party. Honestly, that’s what I suspect; but since this (RL) morning, he’s made a number of posts that suggest that he’s non-hostile Third Party, or even Friendly Third Party. And like I said, I’d rather find Scum than TP.
Now, I know that I’m not Scum. I know that Stanislaus isn’t Scum (though he may not be Town either). And I know that Hal isn’t Scum. That leaves Mental Guy, Ender, RyJae, and Astral, two of whom must be Scum. I already placed one vote; but there are two Scum, so I will place another.
Mental Guy… hasn’t been all that active. Then again, neither have I, so I can’t in good conscience use that against him. If he doesn’t post in the next few hours, though, things will get weird. Other than that, he hasn’t really pinged me.
RyJae… Well, I had a Scum lean on him before he subbed in. He didn’t do much to reassure me, what with his “I couldn’t be Scum because I subbed” argument and his current vote for me. I know that he can’t know that I’m not Scum, but I’m not; so either his reasoning is flawed, or he’s intentionally wrong. Considering how he admits that voting for someone we know isn’t Scum (but may be third party) may be a new player mistake (which I admit it was), and yet still chooses to vote for me… I don’t like it.
Astral… I don’t think he’s Scum. Before he subbed, I had a minor town lean on the guy whose place he took. Astral hasn’t done much to change that.
So, in the interest of not having a three way tie, Vote RyJae. I think either RyJae or Ender are acceptable lynches, since I believe they are the two remaining Scum. Stan or Hal are less acceptable since they count against the Scum win condition and I don’t mind sharing victory, but if we mislynch, I’d rather it be a third party than a townie.
Oh, and I just wanted to add: I’ll be around as much as I can. Which will be a lot for the next two hours, but then only occasionally for the rest of the day.
People with multiple votes: toDay is not the day for this. Pick one target. In a three-way-tie, voting for two of the top three is anti-town.