Sure it is possible. It is also possible that he did investigate you Night 1, found you guilty and voted for you Day 2. He then could have investigated sachertorte Night 2 and found him as a believer. He could have not voted for you for multiple days in a row to not seem to sure and bring your attention to him. This is equally as likely as if I was the oracle it would probably be what I would do. Vote for any scum that I found only 1 time in a row to avoid any sort of flags being raised on the scum boards. Who knows though? To be perfectly honest this game is much more difficult then the previous game I have played (M2) due to a few factors I believe;
a)the number of subs
b)the number of people who have taken vacations in the middle of it
c) the lack of multiple night kills keeping a lot of players in the game
So I am acting on a conclusion I will admit I am not completely comfortable with.
My other course of action is to lynch lurkers. Those who I consider lurking somewhat are: zuma2, USC and Fretful. This is based mostly on posting votes only basically with small justifications. This is not confirmed however I didn’t go through and look, or what have you, just impressions I have.
The 3rd course of action is to go down my list of suspects:
PR
MAL
MHAYE
KYRIE
FRETFUL (he got added because of his very odd voting record)
AMRUSSEL (solely based on my gut told me before that pasta was cult)
Well, I’ve seen nothing so far today that makes me change my mind that Malacandra is scum. Looking back over the last Day’s posts where Mal was relatively quiet, he made this post:
:dubious: color removed, bolding mine
If we are to believe that Hal Briston did breadcrumb him after he investigated as a ‘non-believer’ (which I’m still not 100% convinced of) then we have to assume that he’s NOT the Prophet. This throws a bit of a wrench into my ‘nearly got the Prophet and forced a conversion’ theory, but it leaves the possiblity of 1) Pygmy Rugger being the Prophet, 2) a non-recruit no-kill Night or 3) or a false theory.
In any case, I see no reason to change my vote to someone else at this time and the Day is running short.
hmm, I hate not having a vote this late in the Day. I am really sorry that work is getting in the way. Honestly it is bad enough right now that I would be asking for a sub if it weren’t for the fact that we have had so many already. I can ride it out till the middle of next week and things will get better.
I think my head is in a totally different place from the entire rest of the town. I still don’t think that the arguments against Mal make any sense. The arguments against Pygmy are interesting, but honestly they feel a little weak, sort of like the scum is driving a player that they know is handicapped by being a sub for low content posters (or just low volume) posters. It isn’t rational, and I don’t really have the time to try and back up the assertion, but it really just doesn’t feel right.
I am going to vote amrussell. Again, mostly on just gut. I won’t be able to give you hard examples toDay, I just won’t have time to post again. But something just feels wrong about his posts the last couple of days.
Reading the last 2 Days in full and watching this Day unfold without much participation has just convinced me that we have been looking in the wrong places. Fluid was right, we need to change our tact.
Oh well, I was hoping to avoid this necessity, but I have made it many Days further into the game than I expected and I don’t see myself getting off this bandwagon in time.
Don’t dunk me. I am the Disciple. You know why I must not verify this myself. I’m tempted to come out with a clever hint that the Priest would get, but there are two problems with it: it would look very conspicuous if, say, only one person unvoted me, and the scum are perfectly capable of working out any clue I posted.
To date I have protected:
[ol]Myself[li]Idle Thoughts[]Hockey Monkey[]PleonastPleonast[/ol][/li]
I have quite happily been looking suspicious enough to encourage the scum to think they will be able to get me dunked any day soon and so leave me alone at Night, but it’s a little late for that with the Day going into its last twelve hourse or so and I don’t fancy voting Diggit and sitting tight in the hope everything turns out well, so I’ll have to pipe up now.
Well, concerning MadTheSwine, I at least was certain (even way back when) that he wasn’t the breadcrumb.
I mentioned URL=http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8792766&postcount=1819]way back then that sachertorte was one of the plausible breadcrumbs, but I also mentioned Queuing. In both cases I speculated he’d gotten “Believer” as a result.
The problem being, of course, that the Prophet would show up as a “Believer” as well.
Yeah. Why oh why did you have to post your list of protected persons?
I mean… at least last Night you protected someone who had claimed a role, and if you protected and saved Pleonast the Cultists would have assumed it was part of the role. On the other hand, they could have thought that Pleonast had false-claimed (trying to draw a Night kill and turning into the Psychopath, perhaps) and wasted another Night kill on him to fend off that chance.
But… telling them you protected Idle Thoughts on Night 2? C’mon!
You know, that’s what I get for answering the question before it’s been asked. I just naturally assumed that was the first thing people would be demanding to know. Of course, it would be quite funny if the scum had hit the Psychopath on a Night when my protection missed, wouldn’t it? (I mean, insofar as having the Psychopath on the loose is funny at all, which is questionable in itself.)
Since no-one knows whether my protection succeeded or failed on a given Night, and it’s obvious that I’m not in possession of privileged information, I hope it’s not given the scum too much information. I just took a view on who might be in need of protection and hoped to second-guess the scum. Up to now that’s not worked out wonderfully well, but my odds weren’t that good in the first place.
Hmm. I’ve just checked my sent PMs again on the strength of that observation, and you know what, I have missed a night out. But I think it may be best not to say which night or who, am I (belatedly) right?
Another thought now: Until now I’d thought Malacandra was a Believer (or at least not a Cultist) because he’d almost gotten voted off on Day 2 instead of Kat. Looking back at the final vote tally it’s interesting to see that out of the 5 votes at the end of that Day (Pleonast, fluiddruid, sachertorte, Hal Briston, **Kat **) only one is unidentified (sachertorte, if we assume Pleonast) roleclaimed accurately. His was also the fateful “3rd vote” on Malacandra. And it came at a time where Kat and Malacandra were tied at 2 votes…
Sadly we don’t know the alignment of half the players who voted for Kat (Fretful Porpentine, Autolycus, SnakesCatLady,** Kyrie Eleison** ,Scuba_Ben, Idle Thoughts ), but after my (probable) dunking you will know at least those of me, **SnakesCatLady **and ScubaBen. I am now almost sure Idle Thoughts is town-aligned (a combination of playing style adding Malacandra’s post) which would make it at least 4 town-aligned players. This is important, because it would explain why the Cultist didn’t make a strong effort to save Kat.
So: if sachertorte was investigated by the Oracle and came back as a “Believer”, this would mean he is the Prophet and made the mistake of trying to divert the bandwagon against Kat.
