Something in PygmyRugger’s latest burst of activity has been pinging me. I first noticed it in post [post=8858653]2693[/post] in which PR made the following statement.
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
[QUOTE=amrussell]
<snip>
Really? Of the 18 left, let’s say only 13 are town. If we posit Priest, Disciple and 3 living monks, that gives an 8/13 shot at hitting a convertible player: 62%. If the scum had killed a vanilla last night, and we were to go on to lynch another one toDay, that’s still 6/11 convertibles (54%). For me, that looks like quite a few opportunities.<snip>
[/quote]
(Snip a bit, Brother.)
Now, keep in mind that if the Alchemist (sic) does claim, they shouldn’t say “so and so is the Priest”, but they should say, "I have confirmed so and so as a pro town role. What this does is limit the scum’s pool even further, because they’d have no use in recruiting a nonconfirmed townie after the Alchemist claims. As I’ve said before, after the Alchemist claims, all we have to do is take out those that came up non-believer. Theoretically, that will leave us with the Priest, Disciple, Apprentice, Monks, and the Prophet at the end game. Assuming two Monks left, that gives us 5 nights to use to find the Prophet. With all the non-believers gone, that would seem like pretty good odds to me!
[/QUOTE]
(I’ve taken the liberty of restoring a close quote tag in the quoted post.)
I didn’t bother raising my question last night because it might have been a one-off slip. I’m only bringing it now because you said it again in post [post=8862170]2723[/post]. The last paragraph reads as follows.
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
IHow many times do I have to explain it? In my opinion, tonight was their best night for recruitment. The 54% number you gave is only going to get smaller.
[/QUOTE]
(The “you” in this paragraph is amrussell.)
PygmyRugger, why are you assuming here that the Cult and the Town will both manage to kill only vanilla roles?
Using the numbers suggested by amrussell, at present there are 18 players, 13 non-Cult, five of those not vulnerable to recruitment. A vanilla Townie (Believer or non-believer) is dunked Tonight, leaving 17. If the dead player is not a protected role, then out of the 12 players the Cult might choose to convert there are at least 5 protected players, and maybe as many as 7, who cannot be converted. That’s a 40-60% chance that a recruitment would go to waste. (Approximately.) I don’t see the cult using it.
If the Cult then manages to hit the Priest in Night 7, followed by a Monk getting dunked, that would leave 3 to 4 protected players out of 10, a 30-40% chance of hitting a protected player. Thus the chance of Converting a player who is vulnerable can rise. This disproves your contention that the percentage of recruitable Townies can only fall. That claim depends on the assumption that the Town power roles cannot be sacrificed or dunked.
I can’t dismiss the possibility that this argument is the product of a Cultist who is trying to persuade us that the recruitment was used last Night to give the town a bad steer. The trouble is that the only plausible reason suggested so far for converting last Night involves you or Malacandra as the Prophet, and I don’t think a rational Cultist would want to draw attention to himself the way you have.
Further, since the only plausible target for Conversion, the only player that the Cult can be sure is not immune in their own person to being forcibly turned, is HockeyMonkey. This makes the suggestion easy to test (because we don’t have to think for long to work out who was Converted) and, if it turns out true, your neck would be next on the chopping block. I don’t see Cultists offering such an easy sacrificial lamb at a time when it seems to me they have the upper hand.
… but maybe they want us to think that way.
