Why last night? Because maybe the Prophet is in danger? (That would tend to incriminate either Pygmy or Mal.)
But even if that isn’t the reason, it doesn’t matter. We know they might have recruited last night. If they did, Hockey is the obvious target. But I think we can all agree that now is not the time to dunk her. We just need to keep her potential recruitment in mind.
I think we’re managing to completely mis-communicate here, but I’ll have one more go.
The second statement is my opinion. There is nothing I could ever do to *make *you follow my opinion. I put it out there as a suggestion. You have a *different *opinion. I would like to know what you think is wrong with my opinion. Is it flawed? Does it have some merit, but ultimately not enough to stop you going with your gut? What is the basis for your opinion? What do you feel is gained by following your opinion; what is lost by following mine?
Yes, but you went *beyond *considering it - you charged in with an early vote. That was sufficiently different in approach to make me want to know more about why you were confident enough to make a vote. Not about the particulars of the vote, but about the high confidence level. To put it another way - why have you discounted the possibilities of blocked kill or Psychopath activation?
I don’t think your opinion, and vote for Diggit is necessarily flawed, on the surface. I may be able to get behind that vote, but at this point my reasons would simply quote those who have voted before me. I’ve already given the basis for my opinion. I feel that by following my course of action, there will be one less scum Tonight. I don’t know what will be lost by following yours. I am, however, beginning to wonder if you and the rest of the scum recruited Hockey last night, and you are doing your damnedness to defend her, so it wouldn’t be a total loss. I’ve already unvoted her, and you keep trying to convince me otherwise. Before Pleonast explicitly stated it, I was willing to put this one on the back burner for awhile.
How many times do I have to explain it? In my opinion, tonight was their best night for recruitment. The 54% number you gave is only going to get smaller.
Something in PygmyRugger’s latest burst of activity has been pinging me. I first noticed it in post [post=8858653]2693[/post] in which PR made the following statement.
(I’ve taken the liberty of restoring a close quote tag in the quoted post.)
I didn’t bother raising my question last night because it might have been a one-off slip. I’m only bringing it now because you said it again in post [post=8862170]2723[/post]. The last paragraph reads as follows.
(The “you” in this paragraph is amrussell.)
PygmyRugger, why are you assuming here that the Cult and the Town will both manage to kill only vanilla roles?
Using the numbers suggested by amrussell, at present there are 18 players, 13 non-Cult, five of those not vulnerable to recruitment. A vanilla Townie (Believer or non-believer) is dunked Tonight, leaving 17. If the dead player is not a protected role, then out of the 12 players the Cult might choose to convert there are at least 5 protected players, and maybe as many as 7, who cannot be converted. That’s a 40-60% chance that a recruitment would go to waste. (Approximately.) I don’t see the cult using it.
If the Cult then manages to hit the Priest in Night 7, followed by a Monk getting dunked, that would leave 3 to 4 protected players out of 10, a 30-40% chance of hitting a protected player. Thus the chance of Converting a player who is vulnerable can rise. This disproves your contention that the percentage of recruitable Townies can only fall. That claim depends on the assumption that the Town power roles cannot be sacrificed or dunked.
I can’t dismiss the possibility that this argument is the product of a Cultist who is trying to persuade us that the recruitment was used last Night to give the town a bad steer. The trouble is that the only plausible reason suggested so far for converting last Night involves you or Malacandra as the Prophet, and I don’t think a rational Cultist would want to draw attention to himself the way you have.
Further, since the only plausible target for Conversion, the only player that the Cult can be sure is not immune in their own person to being forcibly turned, is HockeyMonkey. This makes the suggestion easy to test (because we don’t have to think for long to work out who was Converted) and, if it turns out true, your neck would be next on the chopping block. I don’t see Cultists offering such an easy sacrificial lamb at a time when it seems to me they have the upper hand.
… but maybe they want us to think that way.
Just to point out, Pleonast, that I found your role-claim exceedingly fishy at the time, for reasons I have explained, so the vote was not an OMGUS however much you want to talk it up as one. I am now taking into account that time has gone by and no-one else has seen fit to come forward and say “Pleonast is lying - I am the holder of {a|the} unique undocumented role; dunk him and if I turn out to be a liar, dunk me”, but that is only circumstantial evidence in your favour and not absolute vindication, for reasons that I assume are obvious.
Queuing, please talk me through this crumbing thing a little more fully.
I’m going to be on vacation in Cape Cod from Friday, 10 August through Tuesday, 14 August. I will have internet access, and will continue to participate, but my ability to contribute might be somewhat reduced. In fact, it has already been reduced somewhat for the last few days because I’ve been working a bit more diligently to prepare for my week off.
On the bright side, I’ll also be out of work from Wednesday, 15 August to Sunday, 19 August, but will be back at home. On those days, I might find myself with copious spare time.
This is starting to get really nervewracking. I’m not seeing anything new even upon further review of the thread. If I don’t come up with anything by tomorrow, I’m gonna select someone off my suspicious list.
Does anyone have an accurate vote count up to this point?
Better yet, Blaster Master, would you please give us an “official” vote count, please?
Here’s what I have as of 2729
Unofficial Vote Count:
DiggitCamara(3) - Idle Thoughts, amrussell, Kyrie Eleison
Malacandra(2) - Pleonast, Queuing
Pygmy Rugger(1) - FlyingCowOfDoom
USCDiver(1) - zuma
Kyrie Eleison(1) - DiggitCamara
There have been 8 votes out of 18 players alive (17 anticipated votes with sachertorte being absent toDay).
Hey guys, just checking in for right now. Don’t have much time to post or much to say anyway. I did a quick readthrough of the posts and only have Pleonast to rebuttal, it seems.
That being said, not much I can say really. I mean suspicion over voting and finding scum? And yeah, I hear the whole “cult protecting prophet” thing he’s saying. So what’s that mean? If Mal just happens to be the Prophet then I’m looked at weird? I’m suspcious of him too, though and am drawn between him and **Diggit[/] about who to vote for. I just feel Diggit is the best at this point. I’m not guessing this will make much difference to Pleonast, though.
Sure thing.
Here is the page after Hal’s death with a few other people’s look at Hal
Looking at Hal’s posting record.
Day 1: Votes for mtgman (856) which was late in the day. No night had occurred so he was acting just like a believer however.
Day 2: votes for malacandra (1267) (5th person to vote as such), late in the day, but not the last person to vote for Mal. Kat did afterward (The Day finished 6-5 kat v Mal). This vote did out Mal in the lead it appears.
Day 3: Votes for Mad (1587) was the 1st vote for Mad, mid Day about.
Hal dies the beginning of Day 4.
So there it is. I admit the Kat vote for you is a mark in your favour, but it could have been a scum voting for another scum to attempt to be able to say “my vote was the killing vote” and gain trust.
Put that next to your voting record.
Day 1: Vote for zumav1, pretty early in the day. 1st of 3 people to have voted for Zumav1 (Hazel and Klutz were the other 2)
Day 2: no vote—even though you almost died. This is odd, you may have explained why, I did not read the thread
Day 3: no vote again - again, why?
Day 4: voted for Mad (1787) 2nd person to vote for Mad, Queuing was the 1st, both of these were very early in the Day
Day 5: Vote for Pleonast (2318) late in the Day, after the Pleo claim.
Day 6: vote for fluiddruid (2571) 6th of 7 votes, late in the Day.
So there it is. A couple non-votes, a couple safe votes (Pleo/Fluid). Only thing in y our favour is that Kat voted for you. So I stand by my vote.
As an aside-- Hal Briston you are quite simply the MAN if you are actually keeping up the spreadsheet even though you are out of this game. Thank you very much.
Well, I’m going to go ahead and vote Malacandra because I’m marginally more convinced about him than any of the other candidates who have votes right now (although I can see Pygmy Rugger as plausible scum, too). Hell, Hal has to have breadcrumbed somebody, unless he got incredibly unlucky and investigated zuma, and I can’t see any other plausible candidates for the first day besides Mal.
Is it just a coincidence that the volume of discussion has dipped since sachertorte went on vacation? Perhaps it is he who has the secret role of Instigator. 
I’m keeping my Pygmy vote for now. Much of my justification carries over from yesterDay, and what has been said toDay in regards to gut instincts about a recruitment last night makes me more comfortable with leaving my vote there.
Pygmy has kicked it up a notch with the volume and substance of posts of late, but I have enough lingering suspicions about Hockey and the validity of her role-claim (even without considering any recruiting) that I do not easily swallow the idea of her being on the Cultist’s list of potential recruits…which leads me back to Pygmy’s passionate perspective otherwise.
It is early in the Day yet, especially for a vote from me, so I will keep my eyes peeled and my mind open.
My perspective was not meant to be passionate. I said what I thought. I voted. I was questioned on it. And questioned on it. And questioned on it. When I realized nobody else felt the same way I did, I dropped my vote. And then I was questioned on it. And questioned on it.
Yesterday? You mean the day I posted more than you have today? :rolleyes:
[QUOTE=MHaye<snip>
PygmyRugger, why are you assuming here that the Cult and the Town will both manage to kill only vanilla roles?<snip>[/QUOTE]
I guess seeing all the night kills posted by Blaster Master, and seeing mostly vanilla town or vanilla nonbelievers on the list, I just assumed the Cult woudn’t find any power roles. I surely hope you’re not suggesting that the Town will kill any power roles! They can always claim. A counterclaim nets a one to one trade, which is basically the best we can hope for. In addition, of the vanilla roles, some my be being protected, or the scum may be blocked. I think that possibility pretty much evens out the possibility of losing power roles to the Cult at night.
In contrast to how the rest of us have been posting, you struck me as comparatively passionate. It is just a adjective.
My justification from yesterDay was the volume of your votes. I haven’t been one of the folks who have had a problem with your volume of posts.
I came into the game two Days ago. I wasn’t caught up enough at that time to feel comfortable casting a vote. I voted yesterday. I’ve voted, then unvoted, today. I will cast a vote before I go to bed.
The only thing I can say is that my former roles were not participating, much less voting. I can’t really defend that. But I do wish you would take a step back, realize that I’m voting now, and reevaluate me in that light. 
I’m becoming less convinced of my USC/pygmy connection theory. Part of my USC vote was to see how he’d react to pressure.
Mal and Pygmy fit the godfather-in-trouble scenario. As usual we get little out of Mal, and Pygmy is at least being active. I’ve already outlined my suspicions about Mal. I tried to look at things today from a fresh perspective, but nothing is coming close to my suspicion that Mal is scum that I’ve had the last few days.
Malacandra also appears on Kat’s list of 4 on Day 2.
unvote: USCDiver
vote: Malacandra
Thanks Queuing. Concerning Hal’s supposed breadcrumbing, does this theory account for why he would stop voting for me after Day Two? Isn’t it possible that on Night One he investigated someone, on Day Two he was convinced enough by the case being assembled against me that he thought it worth a vote, on Night Two he investigated me after my narrow escape from dunking and, to his surprise, found me innocent? Do you find this more or less likely than that he chose to crumb me with a vote on one day only after investigating me? Why?
As to my own voting record, I believe I have explained my silence on Day Two before; that I did not believe my death would be a good thing *, and that I felt my best chance of not dying was to sit tight. On Day Three I could not see anyone to vote for, and on Day Four I, like a number of optimists, saw no reason not to act on what looked like the last and best lead left by the late Oracle. Day Five, I found (as I’ve said) Pleonast’s claim of what might have been a non-existent role highly suspicious and I voted accordingly. Day Six, I relied on my scumdar based on fluiddruid having been one of those pursuing what I saw as a weak case against me. I was wrong, but I had company.
*(Make what you will of that. I have already said a vanilla townie should be willing to die in a good cause.)
Evidence is like a rope, not like a chain, so I can’t pull a Chewbacca defence at this point, but I urge you to consider that when all of the strands are weak, so is the rope.
zuma (current version): When you talk about Kat’s list of four, shouldn’t you take into account what she said?
Of course it was a random vote - it was on Day One! Barring scum and monks, every Day One vote is inherently random as no-one knows a thing about anyone, nor has a record to go on. (Well, the Apprentice and the Disciple each manage to be only about 93% random as they each know one person other than themselves are not scum.) Why in the world would I want to make a known random vote look non-random? Indeed, I find the reverse scenario likelier - that a scum would want to make it sound as though he had pulled a name out of thin air.
Mal, who do you think you might vote for today, and why?