Mafia V: The Cult of Sekham

The Game Room
2701

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
Oh, and concerning Queuing’s point that my vote is currently on a claimed non scum power role, and considering it doesn’t look like I’ll be able to convince anybody with my gut, shooting from the hip, I’m going to unvote Hockey Monkey. I still think I’m on to something with that one, too, though. If I’m still alive in a couple days, I may come back to this one.
[/QUOTE]

If it is a false claim (and each passing Day makes me more skeptical about that), the only way we’ll find out is if the Cultists kill the real Alchemist. Even then there’ll be lingering doubts, since Blaster Master (aka “Blam”) mentioned there might be more than one of some Power Roles. A claim by anyone else to that role will probably result in a lynch by now.

2702

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
If it is a false claim (and each passing Day makes me more skeptical about that), the only way we’ll find out is if the Cultists kill the real Alchemist. Even then there’ll be lingering doubts, since Blaster Master (aka “Blam”) mentioned there might be more than one of some Power Roles. A claim by anyone else to that role will probably result in a lynch by now.
[/QUOTE]

Each passing Day makes you more skeptical that it is a false claim, or more skeptical of the claim?

2703

In keeping with my promise to keep working up players, I’ll now turn my attention to Pleonast, who I did not review Yesterday. So I’ve got a couple of Day’s worth of posts to review.

I last examined Pleonast in detail in post [post=8823333]2330[/post]. It covered up to the end of Day 4 (deliberately not taking it any further at that point). He’s made the following posts since then.

Day 5 : 13 posts.
[post=8807441]2087[/post] : Votes Malacandra quite quickly – but notes that two people who have criticised him already voted him.
[post=8807788]2095[/post] : Comments that the votes he’s already received should really be a surprise. Asks the voters to rehash the complaints for the edification of others and give him a chance to respond.
[post=8808967]2112[/post] : Responding to a point by amrussell that he’d misrepresented voting history – he claims he miscounted. Wants to widen the list of suspicions. Discusses his Day 4 action in the context of Mad’s plan.
[post=8812110]2135[/post] : Suggests some people who he would like looked at – those leaving little impression, those he believes are not posting much, and asks questions of IT and Sachertorte.
[post=8816032]2201[/post] : Discusses his general suspicions before getting to a response to amrussell’s arguments.
[post=8816100]2202[/post] : Restates his defence for his Day 1 vote. Challenges accusation of self-preservation. States he’s voted Malacandra because he’s done nothing to dispel the suspicions raised on Day 1.
[post=8816219]2206[/post] : Roleclaim Martyr. Claims well in advance of Nightfall to give the town plenty of time to reevaluate in the light of his claim. Defends the early claim again in post [post=8818839]2243[/post].
[post=8822569]2321[/post] : Everyone implicitly claims “vanilla townie.” Notes Zeriel’s claim and says he’ll reevaluate lesser suspicions.
[post=8822581]2322[/post] : Queries an error in votecount.
[post=8824387]2348[/post] : Shifts vote to Captain Klutz over Fluiddruid. Explains why. Next [post=8824392]post[/post] he remembers to unvote.
[post=8824825]2356[/post] : Asserts he is the only secret role holder; knows because of secret information.

Day 6 : 2 posts.
[post=8839102]2504[/post] : Votes. He’s been quiet because of RL interference.
[post=8846230]2581[/post] : Resists switching back to Malacandra.

There is one thing in there that needs looking at, and that is his roleclaim.

I’ve commented [post=8823557]elsewhere[/post] on the roleclaims. What I said there still stands, imo. The declaration (in 2356) that he knew he was the only secret role “ups the ante” as it were. If this was a false claim, then the real secret roleholder could counterclaim and expose a Cultist. It reduces my lingering scepticism about the claim.

My conclusion : I still think Pleonast is Town-aligned.

2704

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
Each passing Day makes you more skeptical that it is a false claim, or more skeptical of the claim?
[/QUOTE]

The former.

2705

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
c) What alternative strategy? I read that as you saying there’s one alternative strategy being advocated. I see two to three groups of thought right now. Obviously, at least one must be influenced by scum in some way. When one strategy comes across to me as being head and shoulders above the others, I’ll support it. Right now I don’t know if the two to three groups are scum vs. scum, scum vs. town, or town vs. town.
[/QUOTE]

By alternative strategy, I meant the general consensus that we shouldn’t let ourselves be too distracted by the possibility of recruitment, but should just bear it in mind as a possibility, along with the other options. By contrast, you took recruitment so seriously that it led you to an early vote. As I say, there’s absolutely no reason you should feel bound by a consensus, but I’d like to hear why you didn’t agree with the more cautious approach and, as it were, put your gut on hold.

2706

Hey folks, miss me?

Sorry I have been so low on the participation recently. In addition to getting a new client, one of the people in my department quit on Monday, and another one went to part time on Friday…so I am now covering some of their work in addition to my already increased workload. We are getting a temp in on the 13th, so things should calm down a bit by then.

That being said, I have been able to follow along I just haven’t had a lot of time to post. But it has been interesting to watch things unfold without me acutally being in the conversations, and some things have been prickling me.

I am going to re-read toDay and yesterDay and then I will post my vote. I am afraid I won’t have time to do much more than that before the Day ends though.

2707

Finally found some time to post.

Concerning the lack of a Night kill, I think it’s most likely the Cult attempted to recruit. The obvious target would be the Alchemist, since unless he was protected, the recruitment would be certain. Choosing any other player would be riskier. This, combined with the fact that we can’t really confirm Hockey Monkey’s role claim, really puts her high on the list of suspects.

That said, I don’t see any reason to dunk Hockey for the moment. We’ll do better trying to find more less obvious Cultists. I rather not risk dunking at this, in the case her claim is true and unrecruited. If she’s still alive at the end game, we’ll have to seriously consider dunking then, as both a possible false-claimer or recruitee.

I’ll going over the remaining players, and give my opinion of each. I’ll give everyone a low, medium, or high suspicion score. I’ll skip Pleonast because of the obvious conflict of interests. :wink:

USCDiver seems like a run-of-the-mill player, doesn’t stand out to me at all. Doesn’t seem to be laying low, but isn’t attracting a lot of attention. Didn’t vote on Day 3. Medium suspicion.

Idle Thoughts posts good analysis, but tends to get overly focused on a few players (yes, I’m a pot). Has voted suspiciously a few times: switching a vote from Mal to Kat on Day 2, saving Mal and condemning Kat. Trying to save the Prophet by finishing off another Cultist? Idle switched his vote way from Mad because he was afraid of a dangerous secret role. Very self-serving. High suspicion.

Hockey Monkey claimed Alchemist. I’m tending to believe the claim, but there’s no reason for a real Alchemist to counter-claim. Add the easy recruitment of the Alchemist and the Night of No Kills makes this player highly suspicious.

NAF1138 hounded fluiddruid to her death. Not that that says much about his alignment. I don’t have a clear impression. Medium suspicion.

sachertorte started out noisy, but has leveled out. May be the Oracle’s breadcrumb (although it’d be easy for a Cultist to hide in). Is currently away. Overall, he strikes me as Townie, a little too enthusiastic at the beginning, and then helpful. Low suspicion.

Malacandra started off with a bizarrely suspicious statement, and then added more the next Day. Has contributed little to helping us find Cultists, although he’s been doing better recently. His OMGUS vote against me after I claimed is yet another example of strange, scummy behavior. He’s walking a dangerous line and I think the only thing that’s saved him is the fact that his principle detractor, Pleonast, is/was considered suspicious by many players. High suspicon.

Kyrie Eleison: I don’t have a good read on. Interesting voting record, though. Day 1: votes for AZTeach. Day 2: votes for Kat/AZTeach, who is dunked. Day 3: votes for Mad. Day 4: votes for Mad, who is dunked. Day 5: votes for fluiddruid. Day 6: fluid is dunked, but he voted for Diggit. He seems influential. Whether he’s a Townie with persuasive posts, or a Cultist with behind the scenes power, I’m not sure. Medium suspicion.

Fretful Porpentine is another player that’s stayed out of my attention. Was the lead vote on the dunks for Day 2 (Kat), Day 3 (Scuba) and Day 5 (Klutz). A save place for a Cultist to hide votes, while another (Kyrie) is leading the dunking mob? Medium suspicion.

Pygmy Rugger: a bored Townie who’s needed to be replaced? Or a clever Cultist leaving no fingerprints by doing nothing? Pygmy himself seems to be trying to participate more. Half my mind wants to dunk him just to punish a poorly played role (no fault of Pygmy’s), but the other half says that’s not fair to a potential Townie. Can’t recommend a dunking here, but no vindication either. Medium suspicion.

amrussell, like Idle, puts out some analytical posts. The previous player, Pasta, for whatever reason gave me a Townie vibe. I’ll mark this role as low suspicion, but the fact that I can’t point to anything concrete to justify it means I don’t put much weight in that assessment.

FlyingCowOfDoom has really been hounding me. He even voted for me (along with Mal’s OMGUS) after my claim. His analyses seem weak to me and he’s rather faded out recently. Either he’s a floundering Townie or a Cultist trying flinging mud around wildly. High suspicion.

Queuing strikes me as a typical player, neither standing near the spotlight, not laying low. I’d tend to think he’s Town, but I don’t get a string vibe. Medium suspicion.

Zeriel was starting to look very suspicious to me, until his claim. Given that he hasn’t been counter-claimed, I’m willing to believe him. Low suspicion.

zuma [Ver. 2] replaced another non-player. The fact that he also finds Mal suspicious warms my heart, but doesn’t make me trust him any more. Medium suspicion.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies has voted strangely. No vote on Day 2 or 5, and a vote for the claimed Alchemist. Not very helpful, if she’s Town. But it strikes as more incompetence rather than malice. Someone to watch carefully, but only medium suspicion for now.

DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] replacing Auto. Has been dogging Kyrie lately. I don’t have a strong impression. Medium suspicion.

MHaye his explicit abstention bothers me. Too much of a cop out. Otherwise appears like an average player. No strong opinion from me. Medium suspicion.

Wow, that took a while. I’ll happily vote for any of my highly suspicious candidates, in descending order: Mal, FlyingCow, Idle and Hockey. So to start,
Vote Malacandra

2708

[QUOTE=amrussell]
By alternative strategy, I meant the general consensus that we shouldn’t let ourselves be too distracted by the possibility of recruitment, <snip> but I’d like to hear why you didn’t agree with the more cautious approach and, as it were, put your gut on hold.
[/QUOTE]

You’re telling me not to do what I’m doing, and still not proposing an alternative strategy. “Be cautious” is not a course of action. Once the Alchemist claims, we’re going to have to get rid of all the nonbelievers and people who can’t prove their role, anyway.

A more cautious approach is fine, if you’d care to share with us your suggested course of action.

2709

Strange, incompetent, and un-helpful as it may be…

I’ll likely be scarce during business hours this week (and quite probably subsequent weeks) due to an abrupt and significant situation of short staffing. Evenings (Pacific) will likely be when I read and post.

2710

[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Finally found some time to post.

Concerning the lack of a Night kill, I think it’s most likely the Cult attempted to recruit. The obvious target would be the Alchemist, since unless he was protected, the recruitment would be certain. Choosing any other player would be riskier. This, combined with the fact that we can’t really confirm Hockey Monkey’s role claim, really puts her high on the list of suspects.

That said, I don’t see any reason to dunk Hockey for the moment. We’ll do better trying to find more less obvious Cultists. I rather not risk dunking at this, in the case her claim is true and unrecruited. If she’s still alive at the end game, we’ll have to seriously consider dunking then, as both a possible false-claimer or recruitee.

(snip)
[/QUOTE]

Sorry, but I can’t disagree more. Let’s put aside my strong suspicion that a recruitment at this stage is highly improbable since we’re not even in shouting range of the end game. If there had been a recruitment last Night, why would the cultist recruit the Alchemist? Her role doesn’t threaten them at all and actually could harm the towns efforts.

I think it’s far more likely they’d recruit Zeriel. Think about it. A Monk knows all the other Monks. By recruiting him, the Cultists know all the other Monks and narrow their search of the Disciple…

2711

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Sorry, but I can’t disagree more. Let’s put aside my strong suspicion that a recruitment at this stage is highly improbable since we’re not even in shouting range of the end game. If there had been a recruitment last Night, why would the cultist recruit the Alchemist? Her role doesn’t threaten them at all and actually could harm the towns efforts.

I think it’s far more likely they’d recruit Zeriel. Think about it. A Monk knows all the other Monks. By recruiting him, the Cultists know all the other Monks and narrow their search of the Disciple…
[/QUOTE]

… and, now that I re-read the roles, the Monks can’t be recruited… :smack: :o

2712

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
… and, now that I re-read the roles, the Monks can’t be recruited… :smack: :o
[/QUOTE]

Still, I doubt very much the Cultist would recruit the Alchemist. It’s not a strong role after all. And, unlikely though it is, HockeyMonkey could have false claimed Alchemist and actually be one of the un-recruitable roles… and/or be protected against recruitment… or any number of variables that the Cultists don’t have under their control. I still think they’ll wait a while until the risk of failure has diminished before they attempt to recruit anyone.

2713

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Sorry, but I can’t disagree more. Let’s put aside my strong suspicion that a recruitment at this stage is highly improbable since we’re not even in shouting range of the end game. If there had been a recruitment last Night, why would the cultist recruit the Alchemist? Her role doesn’t threaten them at all and actually could harm the towns efforts.

I think it’s far more likely they’d recruit Zeriel. Think about it. A Monk knows all the other Monks. By recruiting him, the Cultists know all the other Monks and narrow their search of the Disciple…
[/QUOTE]

You’ve also seemed to have forgotten that this is not M3 and the recruiting power is lost if the Prophet is lynched. They can’t necessarily afford to wait until ‘end game’ to make their move.

2714

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Still, I doubt very much the Cultist would recruit the Alchemist. It’s not a strong role after all. And, unlikely though it is, HockeyMonkey could have false claimed Alchemist and actually be one of the un-recruitable roles… and/or be protected against recruitment… or any number of variables that the Cultists don’t have under their control. I still think they’ll wait a while until the risk of failure has diminished before they attempt to recruit anyone.
[/QUOTE]
I think their chance of successfully recruiting at this point is actually high. Yes, the Alchemist is an almost useless role, but that means it’s unlikely to be protected at this point. Especially since the Cult seems to be going after unclaimed roles recently. When they do recruit (if it wasn’t last Night), the Alchemist is a natural target, rather than risk hitting a protected or unrecruitable role.

Balance a very high chance that Alchemist could be successfully recruited verses the chance that the Prophet is dunked. Why would they wait? A Night without a kill also sows even more paranoia among the Townies.

The main reason I think we shouldn’t dunk Hockey immediately is the possibility that the Psycho was activated. If we go maybe two Nights without more than one kill, then we really need to consider dunking her. Until then, it’s better than we try to find other Cultists.

2715

In light of his talking more, and that was the only beef I had with his role I am going to currently

unvote Pygmy Rugger

I still find the quietness suspicious but since it has gone away…for now…I will move down my list.

It seems we have dismissed, or at least chosen not to act on potential breadcrumbs from our Oracle. I feel that this may be this best course of action.

IIRC (and I am pretty sure I do) there were 3 options of crumbing from Hal.

  1. Mad the swine - we know what happened here
  2. sachertorte - seems to be a believer but is away and it seems everyone wants to give him a pass
    3)malacandra - as a cultist.

I am going to act on this and hence I

dunk malacandra

2716

Is there a good reason why a Priest/Disciple block is not the most likely scenario to explain last night? The Priest/Disciple and Cult are basically playing a WIFOM game every night to choose between self-protecting and protecting Hockey Monkey/Pleonast/Zeriel. I know that from my experience as the Doctor in Pirate Mafia that with three fairly to totally believable claims the protective roles may very well decide to protect one of the claimants.

I just don’t see why the Cult would risk trying to convert someone at this point, before finding out a more important role.

Pleonast, I voted for you in haste and withdrew my vote after having time to think about it. I may not have that many posts, but that’s because I firmly believe that you should not say anything if you have nothing to say. I must admit that I’ve had a very difficult time getting a read on anyone in this game. I think it’s partially because of the sheer volume of posts and partially because of the many substitutions. Oh well.

My vote stands on Pygmy Rugger for now.

–FCOD

2717

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
You’re telling me not to do what I’m doing, and still not proposing an alternative strategy. “Be cautious” is not a course of action. Once the Alchemist claims, we’re going to have to get rid of all the nonbelievers and people who can’t prove their role, anyway.

A more cautious approach is fine, if you’d care to share with us your suggested course of action.
[/QUOTE]

  1. I’m not telling you to do or not do anything. I’ve explicitly said twice that your not bound by any kind of consensus and that I’d just like to understand the thinking behind your choice to disregard what others seemed to think was a good play.

  2. I’m not claiming to propose an alternative strategy. I used the phrase once to refer the general consensus about not letting our judgement be overwhelmed by the possibility of recruitment. I used it a second time to explain what I meant by it:

I don’t know how anyone could read this and still be in any doubt about what I meant. So I’m not at all sure why you think that I’m keeping some plan of action up my sleeve. I’ve been very clear - let’s not go crazy over the possibility of recruitment.

  1. Just to be ultra clear: in post 2637 , NAF asks

He gets the following replies:

The post after MHaye’s above is your vote for Hockey Monkey in which you state

It looks like you read the above posts, dismissed them out of hand, and followed your gut. Now, you could have several reasons for disagreeing with the idea that we shouldn’t let recruitment fears rule our actions. Maybe your reasons are right. But no-one knows what they are. All I’m asking you to do is share your thinking and all I’m getting is evasion and twisting of my words.

In fact, on re-reading your justification for your vote, I’ve noticed something else. I can agree that the scum might well pick Hockey Monkey as good, convertible target. But I don’t see why they have to do it now instead of later. Why do you think last Night was the best chance to recruit her - why not tomorrow Night, or the Night after?

2718

There’s two reasons the scum would want to have converted last night:

[QUOTE=USCDiver]
You’ve also seemed to have forgotten that this is not M3 and the recruiting power is lost if the Prophet is lynched. They can’t necessarily afford to wait until ‘end game’ to make their move.
[/QUOTE]

(This was in response to Diggit.

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
<snip>I really think that the scum, if they chose to use their recruitment, would have done so last night. 62% is not very good odds at a one time only event, and 54% is even worse. It could be assumed that they’d want to recruit now, since that 8/13 or 6/11 number is going to drop even lower once the Alchemist comes forward.<snip>
[/QUOTE]

Keep in mind I meant the Apprentice when I said Alchemist in the above quote.

2719

[QUOTE=amrussell]
It looks like you read the above posts, dismissed them out of hand, and followed your gut. Now, you could have several reasons for disagreeing with the idea that we shouldn’t let recruitment fears rule our actions. Maybe your reasons are right. But no-one knows what they are. All I’m asking you to do is share your thinking and all I’m getting is evasion and twisting of my words.
<snip>
[/QUOTE]

Every single post you quoted said we should at least consider the possiblity of a recruit. Not a single one said we should dismiss it completely.

I’ve already shared my thinking. I’ve shared why I think the recruit happened last night, and I shared who I thought was recruited. The time and the who are the only two variables to a recruit. I laid out my reasons pretty clearly, I felt. Can you please tell me what points you’d like me to expand on?

2720

[QUOTE=amrussell]

  1. I’m not telling you to do or not do anything.

<snip>

I’ve been very clear - let’s not go crazy over the possibility of recruitment.

[/QUOTE]

One of these things is not like the other.